Saturday, May 28, 2005

Kent County

Kent County:
Location – West Michigan, Grand Rapids area
Population – 574,335 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 83.13% White, 8.93% Black, .52% American Indian, 1.86% Asian, 3.34% Some other Race, 2.16% Two or more races, 7.00% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Grand Rapids (pop 197,800)

Kent County is the 4th largest county in the state, and is the largest outside of the Detroit Area.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – Alpine, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships, part of Solon Township
3rd District – Vern Ehlers (R) – Rest of County

State Senators:
28th District – Ken Sikkema (R) – Ada, Algoma, Alpine, Bowne, Byron, Caledonia, Cannon, Courtland, Gaines, Grand Rapids, Nelson, Oakfield, Plainfield, Solon, Spencer, and Tyrone Townships. Cedar Springs, East Grand Rapids, Rockford, Walker, and Wyoming Cities.
29th District – Bill Hardiman (R) – Cascade, Grattan, Lowell, and Vergennes Townships. Grand Rapids, Lowell, and Kentwood cities.
30th District – Grandville City and Sparta Township.

State Representative:
72nd District – Glenn Steil Jr (R) – Caledonia, Cascade, and Gaines Townships, Kentwood City.
73rd District – Tom Pearce (R) – Algoma, Cannon, Courtland, Nelson, Oakfield, Plainfield, Solon, Sparta, Spencer, and Tyrone Townships. Cedar Springs and Rockford townships.
74th District – William Van Regenmorter (R) – Alpine Township and Grandville City.
75th District – Jerry Kooiman (R) – Part of Grand Rapids
76th District – Michael Sak (D) – Part of Grand Rapids
77th District – Kevin Green (R) – Byron Township, Wyoming City
86th District – Dave Hildenbrand (R) – Ada, Bowne, Grand Rapids, Grattan, Lowell, and Vergennes Townships. East Grand Rapids, Lowell, and Walker Cities, part of Grand Rapids City.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 76.58%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 23.42%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 78.50%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 20.40%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 62.98%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 37.04%

Congress:
3rd District – Vern Ehlers (R) – 73.60%, John Ferguson (D) - 24.16%

State Senators:
30th District – Glenn Steil Sr (R) – 62.48%, Carol Hennessy (D) – 37.52%
31st District – Ken Sikkema (R) – 79.93%, Jason Robert May (D) – 20.07%

State Representative:
72nd District – Mark Jansen (R) – 77.27%, Judy Crandall (D) – 22.73%
73rd District – Doug Hart (R) – 74.82%, Dennis Brown (D) – 25.18%
74th District – James Koetje (R) – 71.34%, Bonnie Reffitt (R) – 28.66%
75th District – William Byl (R) – 63.30%, Janice Hanley (D) – 36.70%
76th District – Steve Pestka (D) – 54.47%, James Kozak (R) – 45.53%
77th District – Joanne Voorhees (R) – 60.00%, Karl Holzhueter (D) – 38.10%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 61.21%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 36.57%
Congress:
3rd District – Vern Ehlers (R) – 65.15%, Timothy Steele (D) – 32.96%

State Representative:
72nd District – Mark Jansen (R) – 73.58%, Christopher Vogt (D) – 26.42%
73rd District – Doug Hart (R) – 71.47%, Dennis Brown (D) – 28.53%
74th District – James Koetje (R) – 68.05%, Alton Nielsen (D) - 28.74%
75th District – Jerry Kooiman (R) – 53.45%, Janice Hanley (D) – 46.55%
76th District – Steve Pestka (D) – 65.96%, Patrick Miller (R) – 31.54%
77th District – Joanne Voorhees (R) – 59.93%, Levi Rickert (D) – 40.07%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 60.63%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 38.53%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 69.88%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 28.44%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 62.67%, Gary Peters (D) – 35.20%
US Senate - Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 51.83%, Carl Levin (D) – 46.90%
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 70.46%, Jeffrey Wrisley (D) – 26.88%
3rd District – Vern Ehlers (R) – 70.86%, Kathryn Lynnes (D) – 27.49%

State Senate:
28th District – Ken Sikkema (R) – 73.15%, Michelle Berry (D) – 25.48%
29th District – Bill Hardiman (R) – 53.82%, Steve Pestka (D) – 44.74%
30th District – Wayne Kuipers (R) – 72.29%, John O’Brien (D) – 25.85%

State Representative:
72nd District – Glenn Steil Jr (R) – 72.76%, Christopher Vogt (D) – 25.26%
73rd District – Doug Hart (R) – 69.94%, Fred Clowney (D) – 28.26%
74th District – Willam Van Regenmorter (R) – 71.80%, Beverly Barringer (D) – 26.61%
75th District – Jerry Kooiman (R) – 53.85%, Peter Van Meulen (D) – 44.71%
76th District – Michael Sak (D) – 60.70%, Mark Kubik (R) – 37.21%
77th District – Joanne Voorhees (R) – 70.66%, Virginia Smith (D) – 27.60%
86th District – James Koetje (R) – 68.94%, James McDonald (D) – 28.99%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 68.82% vs Kimon Kotos (D) – 28.65%
3rd District – Vern Ehlers (R) – 66.60%, Peter Hickey (D) – 31.59%

State Representative:
72nd District – Glenn Steil Jr (R) – 68.42%, Thomas Burke (D) – 30.00%
73rd District – Tom Pearce (R) – 68.04%, Fred Clowney (D) – 29.67%
74th District – William Van Regenmorter (R) – 67.87%, Dawn Sloboda (D) – 30.36%
75th District – Jerry Kooiman (R) – 52.22%, Christopher Vogt (D) – 47.78%
76th District – Michael Sak (D) – 67.42%, Holly Zuidema (R) – 30.77%
77th District – Kevin Green (R) – 66.10%, Albert Abassee (D) – 28.96%
86th District – Dave Hildenbrand (R) – 67.18%, James Turner (D) - 31.00%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

KENT COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 148602 (59.36%), Gore – 95442 (38.13%)
2004 – Bush – 171201 (58.85%), Kerry – 116909 (40.19%)

Ada Township
2000 - 3909 (68.59%), 1658 (29.09%)
2004 – 4933 (69.07%), 2157 (30.20%)

Algoma Township
2000 - 2426 (68.85%), 1130 (31.14%)
2004 – 3455 (68.08%), 1577 (31.07%)

Alpine Township
2000 - 3321 (57.79%), 2252 (39.19%)
2004 – 3722 (57.74%), 2658 (41.23%)

Bowne Township
2000 - 1108 (75.99%), 330 (22.63%)
2004 – 1327 (76.57%), 387 (22.33%)

Byron Township
2000 - 6518 (77.71%), 1777 (21.19%)
2004 – 8086 (77.71%), 2264 (21.76%)

Caledonia Township
2000 - 3626 (72.67%), 1239 (24.83%)
2004 – 4662 (74.26%), 1570 (25.01%)

Cannon Township
2000 - 4621 (70.65%), 1797 (27.47%)
2004 – 5572 (70.80%), 2222 (28.23%)

Cascade Township
2000 – 6523 (71.34%), 2449 (26.48%)
2004 – 7254 (69.11%), 3160 (30.11%)

Cedar Springs City
2000 - 563 (56.41%), 403 (40.38%)
2004 – 764 (62.47%), 446 (36.47%)

Courtland Township
2000 - 2004 (68.09%), 849 (28.85%)
2004 – 2667 (69.51%), 1132 (29.50%)

East Grand Rapids City
2000 - 3865 (59.25%), 2494 (38.23%)
2004 – 3807 (54.68%), 3107 (44.63%)

Gaines Township
2000 - 6690 (72.63%), 2376 (25.80%)
2004 – 8110 (71.19%), 3202 (28.11%)

Grand Rapids City
2000 - 34328 (46.54%), 37187 (50.42%)
2004 – 36115 (43.615), 45794 (55.30%)

Grand Rapids Township
2000 - 5370 (67.42%), 2433 (30.55%)
2004 – 6349 (66.76%), 3077 (32.36%)

Grandville City
2000 - 6094 (72.78%), 2106 (25.15%)
2004 – 6537 (72.54%), 2397 (26.60%)

Grattan Township
2000 - 1174 (63.94%), 606 (33.01%)
2004 – 1357 (63.68%), 756 (35.48%)

Kentwood City
2000 - 11857 (60.81%), 7195 (36.90%)
2004 – 13014 (58.27%), 9126 (40.86%)

Lowell City
2000 - 866 (56.23%), 632 (41.04%)
2004 – 1072 (59.59%), 701 (38.97%)

Lowell Township
2000 - 1552 (63.42%), 833 (34.04%)
2004 – 1885 (63.64%), 1047 (35.35%)

Nelson Township
2000 - 1054 (61.57%), 605 (35.34%)
2004 – 1370 (62.39%), 797 (36.29%)

Oakfield Township
2000 - 1354 (57.84%), 909 (38.83%)
2004 – 1763 (61.71%), 1060 (37.10%)

Plainfield Township
2000 – 9274 (60.56%), 5602 (36.58%)
2004 – 11130 (63.30%), 6265 (35.63%)

Rockford City
2000 - 1383 (62.10%), 791 (35.52%)
2004 – 1708 (62.45%), 1002 (36.64%)

Solon Township
2000 - 1223 (60.88%), 736 (36.64%)
2004 – 1703 (63.90%), 937 (35.16%)

Sparta Township
2000 - 2352 (63.66%), 1264 (34.05%)
2004 – 2686 (63.42%), 1488 (35.14%)

Spencer Township
2000 - 892 (57.59%), 621 (40.09%)
2004 – 1039 (55.62%), 803 (42.99%)

Tyrone Township
2000 - 1162 (64.41%), 611 (33.87%)
2004 – 1384 (67.25%), 654 (31.78%)

Vergennes Township
2000 - 1279 (69.17%), 522 (28.23%)
2004 – 1640 (70.30%), 672 (28.80%)

Walker City
2000 - 6249 (61.82%), 3623 (35.84%)
2004 – 7528 (62.07%), 4472 (36.87%)

Wyoming City
2000 - 15965 (59.15%), 10412 (38.58%)
2004 – 18524 (60.18%), 11979 (38.92%)


Kent County is a solid GOP county, although it took a slight democrat turn in 2004 due to major democrat gains in the heavily minority (35%+) City of Grand Rapids. I suspect Iraq hurt Bush here among many Christians as well as there’s a pacifist streak here. East Grand Rapids is a rich suburb, and followed a similar pattern across the country where the most affluent tilted more democrat. Jerry Kooiman’s seat is going to be very competitive in 2006. He’s term limited out, and John Kerry won that district. Sak’s seat is not impossible, but a major longshot for the GOP. Bill Hardiman’s state senate seat is competitive and marginally GOP. The rest of the districts are solid GOP.

12 comments:

AuH2ORepublican said...

How did the 29th Senate district vote in 1998? Hardiman first ran in 2002, right?

Do you think that Congressman Ehlers will step down anytome soon? If he does, would Hardiman or Sikkema have a better chance of winning the GOP nomination in the heavily GOP district? It seems like Hardiman represents more people in the district than does Sikkema, since all of Hardiman's Senate district is in the 3rd CD, but Alpine, Tyrone and part of Solon are in Sikkema's Senate district and in Hoekstra's 2nd CD. However, Sikkema's Senate district has more Republicans and it may be the case that the 3rd CD GOP primary would have more voters from Sikkema's district than from Hardiman's district.

Is Sikkema term-limited in 2006? If so, he may have an advantage if Ehlers doesn't run for reelection, since he would be free to run for Congress while Hardiman would face pressure to run for reelection in his competitive state senate seat.

Republican Michigander said...

The closest district to the current 29th was the 30th which is Alpine Twp, Grand Rapids City, Plainfield and Sparta townships, and Walker City. It was Glenn Steil's district.

There are a lot of potential candidates for the 3rd if it opens up. Sikkema is the frontrunner, but Hardiman would also be a strong candidate. There are literally dozens of candidates in Kent County who could run, as well as a couple in Barry County. I expect a 5-6 way race.

The democrats can possibly put up a fight if they run Steve Pestka (who I think may be a judge now, not sure). Pestka is a democrat popular with pro-life and pro-2a groups.

AuH2ORepublican said...

So the 29th was created in 2002 redistricting? Why would the GOP create a swing district in Kent County? One would think that it would have been relatively easy to connect Grand Rapids to the most heavily Republican Kent County suburbs and make it a comfortably Republican district, and the rest of Kent County (except for a couple of townships that would need to be excised for equal-population reasons) would still make a heavily Reoublican district.

Republican Michigander said...

I don't know why the district was drawn that way. Kentwood is solidly GOP, but not like Sparta and that area.

I'm not sure what the population limit is for a state senatorial district offhand, but I believe it is about 230,000-250000 people(there is a range allowed). Grand Rapids itself has about 195000.

AuH2ORepublican said...

Let's see, Michigan had 9,938,480 residents according to the 2000 Census, and the state has 38 state senate districts. While a 10% deviation between the most and least populous districts is allowed, the population for the average state senate district, and thus what the legislature should shoot for, is 261,539. For example, the 29th senate district drawn by the GOP in 2002 had a population of 274,556 in 2000.

I believe you told me about a year or so ago that the Michigan Constitution prohibits the legislature from unnecessarily splitting counties or townships when drawing state legislative districts, so I'm going to assume that the city of Grand Rapids cannot be split among more than one senate district. That's 197,800 people right there (again, I'm using 2000 Census numbers, which are the ones that the legislature must use). I guess we would have to include all of Kentwood as well, so the population would be up to 243,055. If we add Cascade, Caledonia and Bowne, the population would be up to 269,869, which would fall easily within the acceptable range. That district would have given President Bush 52.77% in 2000. This is only slightly higher than what the 29th district as actually drawn by the MI legislature performed in 2000, since Bush got 52.31%. So, basically, unless Grand Rapids and Kentwood are in separate senate districts, the 29th district cannot be drawn so as to be comfortably Republican.

But if we combine Grand Rapids city with East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids township, and Cannon, Ada, Cascade, Caledonia and Bowne townships, its population would be 271,391, also well within the acceptable deviation, and Bush would have received 54.58% of the vote in 2000. This would be a markedly more Republican district than the current 29th and, while not completely safe for a Republican, could be described as comfortably Republican. Under those lines, I don't think we would be worried about losing the district when Senator Hardiman is term-limited or otherwise steps down.

AuH2ORepublican said...

BTW, I computed the 2004 Bush percentages for the current 29th senate district and for the hypothetical district I described above, and Bush's drop-off in Grand Rapids would have decreased his overall percentage to 50.44% in the current 29th and 52.73% in the hypothetical district. So maybe the new district wouldn't be as "comfortably Republican" as the legislature would have thought when they would have created it, but it would have been over 2% more Republican than the one that was actually drawn.

Republican Michigander said...

I believe Sikkema is from Wyoming, or at least has a Wyoming address. Kuipers is from Ottawa County.

I have to wonder if Hardiman requested Kentwood and Grand Rapids city together. Hardiman is a GR native and overperformed in the black areas of the city. Caledonia (Posthumus) and Ada (DeVos) seem to be a major base area for candidates in the county(as is Wyoming).

I think this seat was drawn for Hardiman, but not for partisan strength. I wonder if they wanted to create the best chance for him to win. Hardiman didn't have to worry about an Ada or Caledonia candidate. (Which could advantage former State Rep Mark Jansen who I believe was in Sikkema's district - not sure?)

There's a lot of depth in Kent County, so God knows how things were drawn there. Friends helping friends.

If that's the case, I'm glad it worked out in 02, but I have to assume he'll be targeted in 06, with a tossup in 2010.

Republican Michigander said...

I have the numbers at 49.92% Bush for Hardiman's district. Sikkema's district is probably close to 70% Bush.

AuH2ORepublican said...

If Sikkema is from Wyoming, he could have run in his district even if GR Township and East GR had replaced Kentwood in the 29th. And unless Hardiman now lives in Kentwood and had to run from there, he would be perfect for the hypothetical 29th I mentioned (who could have beaten him?).

When you say you have Bush getting 49.92% in Hardiman's district, I assume that's from the 2004 vote. I actually messed up when I said I had the 2004 Bush vote in the current 29th at 50.44%; that's the 2004 Bush vote in a district with Grand Rapids city, Kentwood, Caledonia, Cascade and Bowne. In the current 29th CD, I get that Bush got 49.39% in 2004 (59,635 votes out of 120,741 cast). I assume the small difference in our computations is due to absentee votes or something (I got my numbers from the paid members' edition of the Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections).

So in 2004 Bush got 3.34% higher in the hypothetical district I created than he did in the current 29th CD. That could be the difference between a Republican candidate winning and losing.

Jacque said...

I have a question? I am new to the area and trying to get all my info straight. You list Congressman but not Senator. Is it Levin or Stabenaw if I live in Algoma, Kent County.

Thank you.

Jacque said...

Also please, what is our us senate district if in Rockford, Algoma Township, Kent County?

Thank you.

Republican Michigander said...

This is old info on this page from 05 or early 06. I haven't had time to update all the counties yet.

All of Michigan has Levin and Stabenow as US senators.

All of Kent County is in the 3rd district. I have the updated information there on the sidebar.

Algoma Twp is in the 28th State Senate (Jansen) and 73rd District (Open) for State House.