Incumbent - Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - EVEN
GOP Candidate - Thad McCotter
Dem Candidate - Natalie Mosher
Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 45%
2004:
Bush - 53%
Kerry – 47%
2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%
This is a tough district created to elect a republican without damaging the neighbors. It worked for McCotter, but neighbor Knollenberg was defeated in 2008. This district was created from the old 11th and 13th districts. The 13th was democrat and based in Ann Arbor. It was the old Lynn Rivers/Bill Ford district. The old 11th district was Knollenberg's. This was an open seat in 2002. The democrats wanted Lynn Rivers to move to Wayne County and run against McCotter. She declined and ran against John Dingell in the new 15th which included her home Washtenaw County portion of her district.
McCotter is a good fit for the district and is a balancing test. He has an intellectual side as well as a populist side, showing that both of them can exist without being a squish. McCotter is not that. He takes a stand, speaks his mind, backs up his points and lets the chips fall where they may. I respect that. He's not a cookie cutter congressman.
The 11th is a diverse district that covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Novi, Novi Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, and a small portion of Waterford Twp in Oakland County. It covers the City of Northville in both Wayne and Oakland County. It covers the City of Belleville, Canton Twp, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Livonia, Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, Redford Twp, Van Buren Twp, the City of Wayne, and the City of Westland in Wayne County. It has some strong Republican areas and some democrat strongholds. It has affluent areas that are both socially conservative and liberal. He has a large number of blue collar areas. The one thing the whole district has in common is the auto industry support. If I had to characterize this district overall, it's slightly populist, and socially center-right. It's a dangerous district and McCotter had his closest race in the democrat year of 2008, winning by slightly under 21,000 votes as the district flipped to Obama.
If the state stops the bleeding overall trends from 06 and 08, there's good and bad news for McCotter. The good news is that West Oakland is still strong, and capable of being stronger. The bad news is Redford (Union and also Detroiters moving there) and Dearborn Heights (same, although more Arabic population than Detroiter there). Those two areas significantly went more blue from 2000 to 2004. They were competitive and leaned conservative democrat at one time, but newcomers are moving there and taking their blueness with them. There were close in 2000, not anymore. They aren't liberal areas like Plymouth, but they are democrat. It's the new Westland, populist democrat. Westland (UAW) and Wayne (UAW) have been blue for a long, long time, Westland becoming more so with a larger minority population. Populist Democrat. Belleville (UAW and Airport) and Van Buren Twp (same) in the airport area, has been locally competitive, but blue for a long time at the top of the ticket. Canton's shifting closer to its old democrat roots from long past. It was very close in 2000 and 2004, flipping like most of the state in 06/08. Canton border Ypsilanti in Washtenaw County and is a close drive to Ann Arbor along Michigan Avenue and Ford Rd. It's less populist (but more populist than Scio Twp) than Redford/Westland, but more of a cultural liberalism than those areas, although not nearly on the level of Scio Twp. It splits the difference. Plymouth and Northville are more affluent and were Republican strongholds, less so today. It's a lot less populist than Canton, and is more closer to Oakland County in a lot of its views than Wayne County. Mitt Romney types would do well there, and they would crash and burn in Redford.
Livonia on the other hand, has a bit of everything. Working Class areas, affluent areas, and all areas in between. It's also heavily Catholic, and a little more social conservative than Plymouth or maybe Canton, but not as economically conservative. By little more, I mean that. It's not nearly Ann Arbor, and it's not nearly Ottawa County either. It was democrat years ago, moved a little to the right, and has been competitive, but leaned republican for awhile. Livonia flipped in 08 back to its McNamara days, but McCotter still won there easily, as did John Walsh for state rep. It actually went more red in 2004 than 2000 though, so don't give up here. It broke the opposite trends of Plymouth and Canton and Northville. Livonia is more republican than Canton now, although Plymouth and Northville are still more republican than Livonia by percentage. It's a middle America mainstream suburb, not fond of negative campaigning, and will vote the man over the party. Livonia's backed Thad and Joan McCotter, Lyn Banks, Mike Cox (his home), John Walsh, and Laura Toy. On their city council are both republicans and democrats. It's also the former home of Ed McNamara, who was possibly the most powerful democrat in the state as Wayne County Executive. Before he was the executive, he was mayor of Livonia. It's an important area if the Republicans are going to win statewide again.
Western Oakland is more friendly to the GOP overall. Walled Lake is competitive (blue in 2000), and Novi (which raised my alarm bells in 04) and Waterford was in 08, but the rest of it is still solidly red outside of Wixom. If the bleeding is stopped and the area reverts to 2000 or 2004, only Walled Lake will be expected to be close in 2010. We'll see what happens in 2010/2012.Wixom has some GOP leanings outside of one precinct which is heavily democrat. It's the home of a large apartment complex. That caused it to flip in 2008. Turnout is key here. The center of GOP strength in Oakland County is now Milford and South Lyon to the west, and the 8th District's Independence Township to the North. If the GOP will win Oakland County, it starts with those areas.
McCotter's run ahead of the top of the ticket in every election. Here's his 2002 numbers against a spirited challenge by Kevin Kelly. Even with McCotter's solid win, there's a blue base within this district that reaches to all levels.That's why this district is never a safe bet.
| 2002 Elections | McCotter | Kelley | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 7,759 | 4,296 | 365 | 12,420 | 3463 | 62.47% | 34.59% | 27.88% |
| Highland Twp | 4,266 | 2,057 | 247 | 6,570 | 2209 | 64.93% | 31.31% | 33.62% |
| Lyon Twp | 2,483 | 1,144 | 107 | 3,734 | 1339 | 66.50% | 30.64% | 35.86% |
| Milford Twp | 3,747 | 1,829 | 190 | 5,766 | 1918 | 64.98% | 31.72% | 33.26% |
| City of Northville | 1,072 | 496 | 24 | 1,592 | 576 | 67.34% | 31.16% | 36.18% |
| City of Novi | 9,879 | 5,404 | 412 | 15,695 | 4475 | 62.94% | 34.43% | 28.51% |
| Novi Twp | 52 | 24 | 1 | 77 | 28 | 67.53% | 31.17% | 36.36% |
| City of South Lyon | 2,058 | 1,240 | 111 | 3,409 | 818 | 60.37% | 36.37% | 24.00% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,084 | 866 | 85 | 2,035 | 218 | 53.27% | 42.56% | 10.71% |
| Waterford Twp | 1,384 | 1,000 | 96 | 2,480 | 384 | 55.81% | 40.32% | 15.48% |
| Waterford 1-a | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 3 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 5 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 931 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| White Lake Twp | 5,801 | 3,344 | 330 | 9,475 | 2457 | 61.22% | 35.29% | 25.93% |
| City of Wixom | 2,257 | 1,158 | 110 | 3,525 | 1099 | 64.03% | 32.85% | 31.18% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 592 | 622 | 44 | 1,258 | -30 | 47.06% | 49.44% | -2.38% |
| Canton Twp | 13,679 | 9,632 | 951 | 24,262 | 4047 | 56.38% | 39.70% | 16.68% |
| Dearborn Heights | 2,103 | 2,192 | 166 | 4,461 | -89 | 47.14% | 49.14% | -2.00% |
| DH 6 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH7 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH8 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH9 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH10 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH11 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH12 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH13 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH37 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH38 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH941 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH942 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Garden City | 3,978 | 4,118 | 355 | 8,451 | -140 | 47.07% | 48.73% | -1.66% |
| City of Livonia | 24,971 | 13,804 | 881 | 39,656 | 11167 | 62.97% | 34.81% | 28.16% |
| City of Northville | 800 | 469 | 24 | 1,293 | 331 | 61.87% | 36.27% | 25.60% |
| Northville Twp | 6,464 | 2,833 | 200 | 9,497 | 3631 | 68.06% | 29.83% | 38.23% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,118 | 1,351 | 141 | 3,610 | 767 | 58.67% | 37.42% | 21.25% |
| Plymouth Twp | 7,549 | 4,043 | 361 | 11,953 | 3506 | 63.16% | 33.82% | 29.33% |
| Redford Twp | 8,039 | 8,184 | 624 | 16,847 | -145 | 47.72% | 48.58% | -0.86% |
| Van Buren Twp | 2,908 | 3,539 | 297 | 6,744 | -631 | 43.12% | 52.48% | -9.36% |
| City of Wayne | 1,859 | 2,696 | 174 | 4,729 | -837 | 39.31% | 57.01% | -17.70% |
| City of Westland | 9,149 | 11,059 | 697 | 20,905 | -1910 | 43.76% | 52.90% | -9.14% |
| Total | 126,051 | 87,400 | 6,993 | 220,444 | 38651 | 57.18% | 39.65% | 17.53% |
Here's the 2004 numbers.
| 2004 Elections | McCotter | Truran | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 11,879 | 6,462 | 450 | 18,791 | 5417 | 63.22% | 34.39% | 28.83% |
| Highland Twp | 6,476 | 3,077 | 228 | 9,781 | 3399 | 66.21% | 31.46% | 34.75% |
| Lyon Twp | 4,040 | 1,804 | 127 | 5,971 | 2236 | 67.66% | 30.21% | 37.45% |
| Milford Twp | 5,508 | 2,517 | 188 | 8,213 | 2991 | 67.06% | 30.65% | 36.42% |
| City of Northville | 1,351 | 663 | 42 | 2,056 | 688 | 65.71% | 32.25% | 33.46% |
| City of Novi | 14,795 | 8,480 | 430 | 23,705 | 6315 | 62.41% | 35.77% | 26.64% |
| Novi Twp | 75 | 34 | 2 | 111 | 41 | 67.57% | 30.63% | 36.94% |
| City of South Lyon | 3,261 | 1,801 | 98 | 5,160 | 1460 | 63.20% | 34.90% | 28.29% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,629 | 1,331 | 82 | 3,042 | 298 | 53.55% | 43.75% | 9.80% |
| Waterford Twp | 2,050 | 1,350 | 99 | 3,499 | 700 | 58.59% | 38.58% | 20.01% |
| Waterford 1-a | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 3 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 5 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 931 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| White Lake Twp | 9,150 | 4,771 | 372 | 14,293 | 4379 | 64.02% | 33.38% | 30.64% |
| City of Wixom | 3,432 | 2,084 | 133 | 5,649 | 1348 | 60.75% | 36.89% | 23.86% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 850 | 969 | 45 | 1,864 | -119 | 45.60% | 51.98% | -6.38% |
| Canton Twp | 22,131 | 15,663 | 707 | 38,501 | 6468 | 57.48% | 40.68% | 16.80% |
| Dearborn Heights | 2,751 | 3,275 | 117 | 6,143 | -524 | 44.78% | 53.31% | -8.53% |
| DH 6 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH7 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH8 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH9 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH10 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH11 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH12 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH13 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH37 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH38 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH941 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH942 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Garden City | 6,165 | 6,327 | 336 | 12,828 | -162 | 48.06% | 49.32% | -1.26% |
| City of Livonia | 33,157 | 19,321 | 902 | 53,380 | 13836 | 62.12% | 36.20% | 25.92% |
| City of Northville | 1,043 | 623 | 29 | 1,695 | 420 | 61.53% | 36.76% | 24.78% |
| Northville Twp | 9,717 | 4,193 | 185 | 14,095 | 5524 | 68.94% | 29.75% | 39.19% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,801 | 1,936 | 107 | 4,844 | 865 | 57.82% | 39.97% | 17.86% |
| Plymouth Twp | 10,533 | 5,542 | 224 | 16,299 | 4991 | 64.62% | 34.00% | 30.62% |
| Redford Twp | 10,860 | 12,193 | 540 | 23,593 | -1333 | 46.03% | 51.68% | -5.65% |
| Van Buren Twp | 4,823 | 6,433 | 291 | 11,547 | -1610 | 41.77% | 55.71% | -13.94% |
| City of Wayne | 2,948 | 4,411 | 152 | 7,511 | -1463 | 39.25% | 58.73% | -19.48% |
| City of Westland | 15,006 | 19,041 | 598 | 34,645 | -4035 | 43.31% | 54.96% | -11.65% |
| Total | 186,431 | 134,301 | 6,484 | 327,216 | 52130 | 56.97% | 41.04% | 15.93% |
2006 was closer and the ticket splitters saved him. McCotter ran against radio talk show host Tony Trupiano.
| 2006 Elections | McCotter | Trupiano | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 9,851 | 5,734 | 506 | 16,091 | 4117 | 61.22% | 35.63% | 25.59% |
| Highland Twp | 5,058 | 2,694 | 272 | 8,024 | 2364 | 63.04% | 33.57% | 29.46% |
| Lyon Twp | 3,300 | 1,606 | 155 | 5,061 | 1694 | 65.20% | 31.73% | 33.47% |
| Milford Twp | 4,380 | 2,317 | 217 | 6,914 | 2063 | 63.35% | 33.51% | 29.84% |
| City of Northville | 1,112 | 582 | 44 | 1,738 | 530 | 63.98% | 33.49% | 30.49% |
| City of Novi | 11,599 | 7,501 | 446 | 19,546 | 4098 | 59.34% | 38.38% | 20.97% |
| Novi Twp | 51 | 29 | 3 | 83 | 22 | 61.45% | 34.94% | 26.51% |
| City of South Lyon | 2,563 | 1,547 | 113 | 4,223 | 1016 | 60.69% | 36.63% | 24.06% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,260 | 1,087 | 96 | 2,443 | 173 | 51.58% | 44.49% | 7.08% |
| Waterford Twp | 1,494 | 1,168 | 107 | 2,769 | 326 | 53.95% | 42.18% | 11.77% |
| Waterford 1-a | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 3 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 5 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 931 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| White Lake Twp | 7,082 | 4,318 | 425 | 11,825 | 2764 | 59.89% | 36.52% | 23.37% |
| City of Wixom | 2,675 | 1,773 | 111 | 4,559 | 902 | 58.68% | 38.89% | 19.79% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 584 | 798 | 82 | 1,464 | -214 | 39.89% | 54.51% | -14.62% |
| Canton Twp | 16,687 | 13,712 | 812 | 31,211 | 2975 | 53.47% | 43.93% | 9.53% |
| Dearborn Heights | 1,959 | 2,786 | 158 | 4,903 | -827 | 39.96% | 56.82% | -16.87% |
| DH 6 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH7 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH8 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH9 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH10 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH11 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH12 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH13 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH37 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH38 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH941 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH942 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Garden City | 4,434 | 5,022 | 427 | 9,883 | -588 | 44.86% | 50.81% | -5.95% |
| City of Livonia | 25,844 | 17,194 | 1156 | 44,194 | 8650 | 58.48% | 38.91% | 19.57% |
| City of Northville | 862 | 504 | 27 | 1,393 | 358 | 61.88% | 36.18% | 25.70% |
| Northville Twp | 8,117 | 3,908 | 193 | 12,218 | 4209 | 66.43% | 31.99% | 34.45% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,170 | 1,688 | 116 | 3,974 | 482 | 54.60% | 42.48% | 12.13% |
| Plymouth Twp | 8,351 | 4,832 | 320 | 13,503 | 3519 | 61.85% | 35.78% | 26.06% |
| Redford Twp | 7,741 | 10,178 | 576 | 18,495 | -2437 | 41.85% | 55.03% | -13.18% |
| Van Buren Twp | 3,441 | 5,648 | 370 | 9,459 | -2207 | 36.38% | 59.71% | -23.33% |
| City of Wayne | 2,188 | 3,239 | 233 | 5,660 | -1051 | 38.66% | 57.23% | -18.57% |
| City of Westland | 10,856 | 14,385 | 919 | 26,160 | -3529 | 41.50% | 54.99% | -13.49% |
| Total | 143,659 | 114,250 | 7,884 | 265,793 | 29409 | 54.05% | 42.98% | 11.06% |
2008 was much closer. Ticket Splitters saved him.
| 2008 Elections | McCotter | Larkin | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 12,036 | 7,491 | 620 | 20,147 | 4545 | 59.74% | 37.18% | 22.56% |
| Highland Twp | 6,217 | 3,450 | 367 | 10,034 | 2767 | 61.96% | 34.38% | 27.58% |
| Lyon Twp | 4,369 | 2,162 | 217 | 6,748 | 2207 | 64.75% | 32.04% | 32.71% |
| Milford Twp | 5,468 | 2,735 | 330 | 8,533 | 2733 | 64.08% | 32.05% | 32.03% |
| City of Northville | 1,294 | 714 | 56 | 2,064 | 580 | 62.69% | 34.59% | 28.10% |
| City of Novi | 14,675 | 10,864 | 689 | 26,228 | 3811 | 55.95% | 41.42% | 14.53% |
| Novi Twp | 62 | 37 | 3 | 102 | 25 | 60.78% | 36.27% | 24.51% |
| City of South Lyon | 3,222 | 1,999 | 160 | 5,381 | 1223 | 59.88% | 37.15% | 22.73% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,608 | 1,451 | 114 | 3,173 | 157 | 50.68% | 45.73% | 4.95% |
| Waterford Twp | 1,736 | 1,441 | 144 | 3,321 | 295 | 52.27% | 43.39% | 8.88% |
| Waterford 1-a | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 3 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 5 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 931 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| White Lake Twp | 8,772 | 5,595 | 351 | 14,718 | 3177 | 59.60% | 38.01% | 21.59% |
| City of Wixom | 3,331 | 2,680 | 202 | 6,213 | 651 | 53.61% | 43.14% | 10.48% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 742 | 1,147 | 56 | 1,945 | -405 | 38.15% | 58.97% | -20.82% |
| Canton Twp | 21,047 | 20,703 | 1153 | 42,903 | 344 | 49.06% | 48.26% | 0.80% |
| Dearborn Heights | 2,440 | 3,437 | 127 | 6,004 | -997 | 40.64% | 57.25% | -16.61% |
| DH 6 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH7 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH8 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH9 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH10 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH11 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH12 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH13 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH37 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH38 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH941 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH942 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Garden City | 5,753 | 6,607 | 505 | 12,865 | -854 | 44.72% | 51.36% | -6.64% |
| City of Livonia | 31,114 | 21,286 | 1700 | 54,100 | 9828 | 57.51% | 39.35% | 18.17% |
| City of Northville | 967 | 646 | 50 | 1,663 | 321 | 58.15% | 38.85% | 19.30% |
| Northville Twp | 9,967 | 5,400 | 387 | 15,754 | 4567 | 63.27% | 34.28% | 28.99% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,662 | 2,192 | 188 | 5,042 | 470 | 52.80% | 43.47% | 9.32% |
| Plymouth Twp | 10,166 | 5,912 | 453 | 16,531 | 4254 | 61.50% | 35.76% | 25.73% |
| Redford Twp | 8,750 | 13,925 | 911 | 23,586 | -5175 | 37.10% | 59.04% | -21.94% |
| Van Buren Twp | 4,393 | 8,578 | 453 | 13,424 | -4185 | 32.72% | 63.90% | -31.18% |
| City of Wayne | 2,782 | 4,670 | 167 | 7,619 | -1888 | 36.51% | 61.29% | -24.78% |
| City of Westland | 13,888 | 21,503 | 1283 | 36,674 | -7615 | 37.87% | 58.63% | -20.76% |
| Total | 177,461 | 156,625 | 10,686 | 344,772 | 20836 | 51.47% | 45.43% | 6.04% |
Here's Bush's 2000 numbers.
| 2000 Elections | Bush | Gore | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 9,541 | 6,867 | 445 | 16,853 | 2674 | 56.61% | 40.75% | 15.87% |
| Highland Twp | 5,131 | 3,486 | 338 | 8,955 | 1645 | 57.30% | 38.93% | 18.37% |
| Lyon Twp | 2,815 | 1,792 | 146 | 4,753 | 1023 | 59.23% | 37.70% | 21.52% |
| Milford Twp | 4,598 | 2,921 | 200 | 7,719 | 1677 | 59.57% | 37.84% | 21.73% |
| City of Northville | 1,239 | 716 | 37 | 1,992 | 523 | 62.20% | 35.94% | 26.26% |
| City of Novi | 12,339 | 8,667 | 554 | 21,560 | 3672 | 57.23% | 40.20% | 17.03% |
| Novi Twp | 58 | 35 | 3 | 96 | 23 | 60.42% | 36.46% | 23.96% |
| City of South Lyon | 2,464 | 2,123 | 116 | 4,703 | 341 | 52.39% | 45.14% | 7.25% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,436 | 1,462 | 100 | 2,998 | -26 | 47.90% | 48.77% | -0.87% |
| Waterford Twp | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 1-a | 548 | 500 | 34 | 1,082 | 48 | 50.65% | 46.21% | 4.44% |
| Waterford 3 | 344 | 382 | 20 | 746 | -38 | 46.11% | 51.21% | -5.09% |
| Waterford 5 | 491 | 414 | 24 | 929 | 77 | 52.85% | 44.56% | 8.29% |
| Waterford 931 | 1,290 | 1,190 | 36 | 2,516 | 100 | 51.27% | 47.30% | 3.97% |
| White Lake Twp | 7,279 | 5,203 | 335 | 12,817 | 2076 | 56.79% | 40.59% | 16.20% |
| City of Wixom | 2,970 | 2,110 | 135 | 5,215 | 860 | 56.95% | 40.46% | 16.49% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 742 | 1,048 | 41 | 1,831 | -306 | 40.52% | 57.24% | -16.71% |
| Canton Twp | 16,435 | 14,974 | 695 | 32,104 | 1461 | 51.19% | 46.64% | 4.55% |
| Dearborn Heights | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH 6 | 158 | 196 | 16 | 370 | -38 | 42.70% | 52.97% | -10.27% |
| DH7 | 266 | 290 | 19 | 575 | -24 | 46.26% | 50.43% | -4.17% |
| DH8 | 268 | 227 | 12 | 507 | 41 | 52.86% | 44.77% | 8.09% |
| DH9 | 181 | 227 | 15 | 423 | -46 | 42.79% | 53.66% | -10.87% |
| DH10 | 160 | 218 | 14 | 392 | -58 | 40.82% | 55.61% | -14.80% |
| DH11 | 206 | 221 | 15 | 442 | -15 | 46.61% | 50.00% | -3.39% |
| DH12 | 187 | 297 | 11 | 495 | -110 | 37.78% | 60.00% | -22.22% |
| DH13 | 267 | 262 | 12 | 541 | 5 | 49.35% | 48.43% | 0.92% |
| DH37 | 113 | 235 | 9 | 357 | -122 | 31.65% | 65.83% | -34.17% |
| DH38 | 216 | 246 | 12 | 474 | -30 | 45.57% | 51.90% | -6.33% |
| DH941 | 409 | 478 | 21 | 908 | -69 | 45.04% | 52.64% | -7.60% |
| DH942 | 20 | 38 | 58 | -18 | 34.48% | 65.52% | -31.03% | |
| Garden City | 5,050 | 6,919 | 305 | 12,274 | -1869 | 41.14% | 56.37% | -15.23% |
| City of Livonia | 27,319 | 22,756 | 1577 | 51,652 | 4563 | 52.89% | 44.06% | 8.83% |
| City of Northville | 915 | 667 | 44 | 1,626 | 248 | 56.27% | 41.02% | 15.25% |
| Northville Twp | 6,954 | 4,058 | 281 | 11,293 | 2896 | 61.58% | 35.93% | 25.64% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,366 | 2,243 | 179 | 4,788 | 123 | 49.42% | 46.85% | 2.57% |
| Plymouth Twp | 8,725 | 6,029 | 384 | 15,138 | 2696 | 57.64% | 39.83% | 17.81% |
| Redford Twp | 9,506 | 12,143 | 668 | 22,317 | -2637 | 42.60% | 54.41% | -11.82% |
| Van Buren Twp | 3,578 | 5,232 | 272 | 9,082 | -1654 | 39.40% | 57.61% | -18.21% |
| City of Wayne | 2,478 | 4,178 | 186 | 6,842 | -1700 | 36.22% | 61.06% | -24.85% |
| City of Westland | 12,348 | 18,310 | 910 | 31,568 | -5962 | 39.12% | 58.00% | -18.89% |
| Total | 151,410 | 139,360 | 8,221 | 298,991 | 12050 | 50.64% | 46.61% | 4.03% |
2004 numbers.
| 2004 Elections | Bush | Kerry | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 12,019 | 7,838 | 196 | 20,053 | 4181 | 59.94% | 39.09% | 20.85% |
| Highland Twp | 6,509 | 3,849 | 104 | 10,462 | 2660 | 62.22% | 36.79% | 25.43% |
| Lyon Twp | 4,082 | 2,274 | 68 | 6,424 | 1808 | 63.54% | 35.40% | 28.14% |
| Milford Twp | 5,413 | 3,252 | 77 | 8,742 | 2161 | 61.92% | 37.20% | 24.72% |
| City of Northville | 1,269 | 866 | 22 | 2,157 | 403 | 58.83% | 40.15% | 18.68% |
| City of Novi | 14,484 | 10,612 | 219 | 25,315 | 3872 | 57.22% | 41.92% | 15.30% |
| Novi Twp | 67 | 40 | 1 | 108 | 27 | 62.04% | 37.04% | 25.00% |
| City of South Lyon | 3,191 | 2,236 | 40 | 5,467 | 955 | 58.37% | 40.90% | 17.47% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,664 | 1,580 | 31 | 3,275 | 84 | 50.81% | 48.24% | 2.56% |
| Waterford Twp | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 1-a | 719 | 423 | 13 | 1,155 | 296 | 62.25% | 36.62% | 25.63% |
| Waterford 3 | 401 | 349 | 8 | 758 | 52 | 52.90% | 46.04% | 6.86% |
| Waterford 5 | 639 | 484 | 10 | 1,133 | 155 | 56.40% | 42.72% | 13.68% |
| Waterford 931 | 433 | 323 | 14 | 770 | 110 | 56.23% | 41.95% | 14.29% |
| White Lake Twp | 9,439 | 5,821 | 135 | 15,395 | 3618 | 61.31% | 37.81% | 23.50% |
| City of Wixom | 3,484 | 2,552 | 55 | 6,091 | 932 | 57.20% | 41.90% | 15.30% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 856 | 1,131 | 18 | 2,005 | -275 | 42.69% | 56.41% | -13.72% |
| Canton Twp | 21,452 | 19,743 | 363 | 41,558 | 1709 | 51.62% | 47.51% | 4.11% |
| Dearborn Heights | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH 6 | 148 | 257 | 1 | 406 | -109 | 36.45% | 63.30% | -26.85% |
| DH7 | 288 | 380 | 13 | 681 | -92 | 42.29% | 55.80% | -13.51% |
| DH8 | 238 | 274 | 8 | 520 | -36 | 45.77% | 52.69% | -6.92% |
| DH9 | 195 | 232 | 8 | 435 | -37 | 44.83% | 53.33% | -8.51% |
| DH10 | 152 | 237 | 11 | 400 | -85 | 38.00% | 59.25% | -21.25% |
| DH11 | 272 | 301 | 14 | 587 | -29 | 46.34% | 51.28% | -4.94% |
| DH12 | 243 | 336 | 9 | 588 | -93 | 41.33% | 57.14% | -15.82% |
| DH13 | 253 | 263 | 4 | 520 | -10 | 48.65% | 50.58% | -1.92% |
| DH37 | 108 | 263 | 3 | 374 | -155 | 28.88% | 70.32% | -41.44% |
| DH38 | 205 | 282 | 11 | 498 | -77 | 41.16% | 56.63% | -15.46% |
| DH941 | 82 | 119 | 3 | 204 | -37 | 40.20% | 58.33% | -18.14% |
| DH942 | 602 | 776 | 17 | 1,395 | -174 | 43.15% | 55.63% | -12.47% |
| Garden City | 6,241 | 7,588 | 143 | 13,972 | -1347 | 44.67% | 54.31% | -9.64% |
| City of Livonia | 30,626 | 25,148 | 561 | 56,335 | 5478 | 54.36% | 44.64% | 9.72% |
| City of Northville | 955 | 790 | 15 | 1,760 | 165 | 54.26% | 44.89% | 9.38% |
| Northville Twp | 9,110 | 5,676 | 95 | 14,881 | 3434 | 61.22% | 38.14% | 23.08% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,557 | 2,553 | 57 | 5,167 | 4 | 49.49% | 49.41% | 0.08% |
| Plymouth Twp | 9,828 | 6,987 | 167 | 16,982 | 2841 | 57.87% | 41.14% | 16.73% |
| Redford Twp | 10,244 | 14,276 | 332 | 24,852 | -4032 | 41.22% | 57.44% | -16.22% |
| Van Buren Twp | 4,993 | 7,353 | 660 | 13,006 | -2360 | 38.39% | 56.54% | -18.15% |
| City of Wayne | 3,037 | 4,852 | 72 | 7,961 | -1815 | 38.15% | 60.95% | -22.80% |
| City of Westland | 14,953 | 21,208 | 589 | 36,750 | -6255 | 40.69% | 57.71% | -17.02% |
| Total | 181,451 | 163,524 | 4,167 | 349,142 | 17927 | 51.97% | 46.84% | 5.13% |
2008 numbers. Big flips here, but the biggest was Wixom. That was due to one precinct. Those familiar with the area know about the gigantic apartment complex there. That's the big flip. Obama entire margin of victory in Wixom was due to that area. Think Bath Twp in the 8th. The rest I'd say is general trends of 2008 and a weak candidate for the GOP at the top. I don't know if there's new building there in Wixom, of it just the apartment dwellers got out and voted for Mr. Obama.
| 2008 Elections | McCain | Obama | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Oakland County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Commerce Twp | 11,428 | 9,900 | 231 | 21,559 | 1528 | 53.01% | 45.92% | 7.09% |
| Highland Twp | 5,987 | 4,533 | 231 | 10,751 | 1454 | 55.69% | 42.16% | 13.52% |
| Lyon Twp | 4,120 | 3,009 | 112 | 7,241 | 1111 | 56.90% | 41.56% | 15.34% |
| Milford Twp | 5,105 | 3,851 | 145 | 9,101 | 1254 | 56.09% | 42.31% | 13.78% |
| City of Northville | 1,127 | 1,001 | 21 | 2,149 | 126 | 52.44% | 46.58% | 5.86% |
| City of Novi | 13,264 | 14,397 | 350 | 28,011 | -1133 | 47.35% | 51.40% | -4.04% |
| Novi Twp | 52 | 57 | 2 | 111 | -5 | 46.85% | 51.35% | -4.50% |
| City of South Lyon | 2,983 | 2,712 | 91 | 5,786 | 271 | 51.56% | 46.87% | 4.68% |
| City of Walled Lake | 1,517 | 1,823 | 78 | 3,418 | -306 | 44.38% | 53.34% | -8.95% |
| Waterford Twp | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Waterford 1-a | 537 | 475 | 14 | 1,026 | 62 | 52.34% | 46.30% | 6.04% |
| Waterford 3 | 339 | 380 | 23 | 742 | -41 | 45.69% | 51.21% | -5.53% |
| Waterford 5 | 429 | 527 | 22 | 978 | -98 | 43.87% | 53.89% | -10.02% |
| Waterford 931 | 2,189 | 2,251 | 88 | 4,528 | -62 | 48.34% | 49.71% | -1.37% |
| White Lake Twp | 8,563 | 7,196 | 302 | 16,061 | 1367 | 53.32% | 44.80% | 8.51% |
| City of Wixom | 3,077 | 3,495 | 111 | 6,683 | -418 | 46.04% | 52.30% | -6.25% |
| Wayne County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Belleville | 733 | 1,315 | 22 | 2,070 | -582 | 35.41% | 63.53% | -28.12% |
| Canton Twp | 19,078 | 26,092 | 658 | 45,828 | -7014 | 41.63% | 56.93% | -15.31% |
| Dearborn Heights | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| DH 6 | 96 | 313 | 5 | 414 | -217 | 23.19% | 75.60% | -52.42% |
| DH7 | 242 | 413 | 9 | 664 | -171 | 36.45% | 62.20% | -25.75% |
| DH8 | 196 | 281 | 7 | 484 | -85 | 40.50% | 58.06% | -17.56% |
| DH9 | 142 | 282 | 8 | 432 | -140 | 32.87% | 65.28% | -32.41% |
| DH10 | 126 | 216 | 10 | 352 | -90 | 35.80% | 61.36% | -25.57% |
| DH11 | 185 | 321 | 10 | 516 | -136 | 35.85% | 62.21% | -26.36% |
| DH12 | 180 | 331 | 13 | 524 | -151 | 34.35% | 63.17% | -28.82% |
| DH13 | 199 | 280 | 8 | 487 | -81 | 40.86% | 57.49% | -16.63% |
| DH37 | 86 | 305 | 7 | 398 | -219 | 21.61% | 76.63% | -55.03% |
| DH38 | 162 | 278 | 20 | 460 | -116 | 35.22% | 60.43% | -25.22% |
| DH941 | 71 | 144 | 4 | 219 | -73 | 32.42% | 65.75% | -33.33% |
| DH942 | 697 | 804 | 36 | 1,537 | -107 | 45.35% | 52.31% | -6.96% |
| Garden City | 5,466 | 7,976 | 314 | 13,756 | -2510 | 39.74% | 57.98% | -18.25% |
| City of Livonia | 28,190 | 28,358 | 952 | 57,500 | -168 | 49.03% | 49.32% | -0.29% |
| City of Northville | 846 | 895 | 19 | 1,760 | -49 | 48.07% | 50.85% | -2.78% |
| Northville Twp | 9,025 | 7,497 | 214 | 16,736 | 1528 | 53.93% | 44.80% | 9.13% |
| City of Plymouth | 2,277 | 3,013 | 108 | 5,398 | -736 | 42.18% | 55.82% | -13.63% |
| Plymouth Twp | 9,003 | 8,115 | 276 | 17,394 | 888 | 51.76% | 46.65% | 5.11% |
| Redford Twp | 7,891 | 16,540 | 526 | 24,957 | -8649 | 31.62% | 66.27% | -34.66% |
| Van Buren Twp | 4,375 | 9,703 | 205 | 14,283 | -5328 | 30.63% | 67.93% | -37.30% |
| City of Wayne | 2,700 | 5,353 | 147 | 8,200 | -2653 | 32.93% | 65.28% | -32.35% |
| City of Westland | 13,021 | 25,262 | 743 | 39,026 | -12241 | 33.36% | 64.73% | -31.37% |
| Total | 165,704 | 199,694 | 6,142 | 371,540 | -33990 | 44.60% | 53.75% | -9.15% |
Breakdown by area:
Oakland County
2000 - Bush 56.54%, Gore 40.75%, 92934 votes, 14675 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 62.66%, Kelley 34.23%, 66778 votes, 18964 vote spread
2004 - Bush 59.48%, Kerry 39.61%, 107305 votes, 21313 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 63.47%, Truran 34.28%, 100271 votes, 29272 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 60.55%, Trupiano 36.45%, 83276 votes, 20069 vote spread
2008 - McCain 51.39%, Obama 47.07%, 118145 votes, 5110 vote spread
2008 - McCotter 58.87%, Larkin 38.08%, 106662 votes, 22171 vote spread.
Wayne County
2000 - Gore 49.25%, Bush 47.98%, 206057 votes, -2625 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 54.80%, Kelley 42.00%, 153666 votes, 19667 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 50.20%, Bush 48.67%, 241837 votes, -3387 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 54.10%, Truran 44.03%, 226945 votes, 22858 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 51.08%, Trupiano 45.97%, 182517 votes, 9370 vote spread
2008 - Obama 56.86%, McCain 41.43%, 253395 votes, -39100 vote spread
2008 - Larkin 48.72%, McCotter 48.16%, 238,110 votes, -1335 vote spread
The farm club is split here. All of the Wayne County state reps are now democrats outside of John Walsh in Livonia. Walsh is the last man standing, and won easily in 08. We got lucky with the candidate there. Oakland's farm club here is almost all republican outside of the West Bloomfield/Commerce district.
St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.
| St Senate 26th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Seiferlein/Cherry | 41445 | 65771 | 107,216 | -24326 | 38.66% | 61.34% | -22.69% | |
| 02 - Muller/Cherry | 37852 | 47848 | 85,700 | -9996 | 44.17% | 55.83% | -11.66% | |
St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....
| St. Senate 15th | GOP | Dem | ||||||
| 06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski | 66,524 | 45,782 | 3101 | 115,407 | 20742 | 57.64% | 39.67% | 17.97% |
| 02 - Cassis/Carlson | 57,583 | 35,305 | 2340 | 95,228 | 22278 | 60.47% | 37.07% | 23.39% |
St Senate 8th - Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This district is split between the Detroit Districts, Dingell's district, and also the 11th. It's a solid democrat stronghold between Downriver and the Airport area. It's an open seat opened up by Ray Basham being termed out.
| St Senate 8th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Kalsic/Basham | 21727 | 58501 | 2197 | 82,425 | -36774 | 26.36% | 70.97% | -44.62% |
| 02 - Montelauro/Basham | 22128 | 43874 | 2312 | 68,314 | -21746 | 32.39% | 64.22% | -31.83% |
St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.
| St Senate 7th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Patterson/Slavens | 59,647 | 56,156 | 115,803 | 3491 | 51.51% | 48.49% | 3.01% | |
| 02 - Patterson/Mans | 52,435 | 40,675 | 93,110 | 11760 | 56.32% | 43.68% | 12.63% | |
St Senate 6th - Covers Garden City, Livonia, Redford Twp, and Westland in Wayne County - This is a very difficult district that flipped in 2006. Laura Toy won a difficult race in 2002, but Glenn Anderson won in what some considered an upset, in 2006. The trouble here is that Livonia has to outvote the spread in three municipalities to win. It was possible when Redford was close if enough crossvotes happen in Garden City and Westland. With Redford being a stronghold now with the other two, it's easier said than done. It's not the Redford of 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago.
| St Senate 6th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 06 - Toy/Anderson | 47,596 | 52,500 | 100,096 | -4904 | 47.55% | 52.45% | -4.90% | |
| 02 - Toy/DeHart | 46,257 | 39,152 | 85,409 | 7105 | 54.16% | 45.84% | 8.32% |
St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.
| St Senate 5th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 06 - Malhalab/Hunter | 8,164 | 56,252 | 1510 | 65,926 | -48088 | 12.38% | 85.33% | -72.94% |
| 02 - Patrick/Leland | 10,334 | 49,780 | 60,114 | -39446 | 17.19% | 82.81% | -65.62% |
St Rep 66 - Covers City of Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa Twp, Green Oak Twp, Marion Twp, and Oceola Twp in Livingston County, along with Milford Twp in Oakland County. Solidly Republican. Bill Rogers, former county commissioner, is the current representative winning an open seat in 2008 against Donna Anderson. Before Bill had the district, it was held by Chris Ward, Judie Scranton, and Susan Munsell. The election here is usually the primary.
| St Rep 66th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - B.Rogers/Anderson | 32,138 | 19,146 | 2020 | 53,304 | 12992 | 60.29% | 35.92% | 24.37% |
| 06 - Ward/McGonegal | 27,774 | 14,472 | 42,246 | 13302 | 65.74% | 34.26% | 31.49% | |
| 04 - Ward/Block | 35,623 | 14,432 | 50,055 | 21191 | 71.17% | 28.83% | 42.34% | |
| 02 - Ward/Block | 23,599 | 8,826 | 32,425 | 14773 | 72.78% | 27.22% | 45.56% |
St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.
| St Rep 44th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - E.Kowall/Venie | 33,266 | 16,683 | 49,949 | 16583 | 66.60% | 33.40% | 33.20% | |
| 06 - Stakoe/Venie | 27,124 | 13,264 | 40,388 | 13860 | 67.16% | 32.84% | 34.32% | |
| 04 - Stakoe/Scrase | 33,596 | 14,498 | 1400 | 49,494 | 19098 | 67.88% | 29.29% | 38.59% |
| 02 - Stakoe/Bryan | 22,788 | 9,748 | 32,536 | 13040 | 70.04% | 29.96% | 40.08% |
St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.
| St Rep 43rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Haines/Hudson | 20,219 | 19,373 | 1460 | 41,052 | 846 | 49.25% | 47.19% | 2.06% |
| 06 - Amos/Riddell | 19,292 | 13,406 | 32,698 | 5886 | 59.00% | 41.00% | 18.00% | |
| 04 - Amos/Hudson | 23,665 | 18,193 | 41,858 | 5472 | 56.54% | 43.46% | 13.07% | |
| 02 - Amos/Fortino | 14,788 | 13,157 | 27,945 | 1631 | 52.92% | 47.08% | 5.84% |
St Rep 38th - Covers Lyon Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom in Oakland County. Hugh Crawford won the open seat in 2008.
| St Rep 38th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Crawford/Tindall | 27,840 | 20,547 | 48,387 | 7293 | 57.54% | 42.46% | 15.07% | |
| 06 - DeRoche/Jarrell | 21,803 | 14,595 | 36,398 | 7208 | 59.90% | 40.10% | 19.80% | |
| 04 - DeRoche/Morgan | 27,406 | 17,234 | 44,640 | 10172 | 61.39% | 38.61% | 22.79% | |
| 02 - DeRoche/Premo | 18,561 | 9,973 | 28,534 | 8588 | 65.05% | 34.95% | 30.10% |
St Rep 21st - Covers Belleville, Van Buren Twp, and part of Canton Twp in Wayne County - This district flipped in an 08 open seat. It was beforehand Bruce Patterson and Phil LaJoy's seat for a 12 year period. It was a competitive district, but the blue reached the bottom of the ticket in 08 with Canton's flip, along with Van Buren and Belleville. Dian Slavens is the incumbent.
| St Rep 21st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - T.LaJoy/D.Slavens | 24,204 | 27,805 | 1784 | 53,793 | -3601 | 44.99% | 51.69% | -6.69% |
| 06 - P.LaJoy/Sinis | 21,481 | 16,775 | 38,256 | 4706 | 56.15% | 43.85% | 12.30% | |
| 04 - P.LaJoy/Mayer | 27,225 | 19,979 | 47,204 | 7246 | 57.68% | 42.32% | 15.35% | |
| 02 - P.LaJoy/M.Slavens | 15,591 | 12,769 | 640 | 29,000 | 2822 | 53.76% | 44.03% | 9.73% |
St Rep 20th - Covers part of Canton Twp, City of Northville, Northville Twp,City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, and the City of Wayne in Wayne County. Infighting thanks to RINO John Stewart caused a lot of problems here. RINOS to me aren't liberal Republicans. RINOs to me are people like Stewart who really are democrats who support them. Stewart finally switched parties now, but he backed Obama, and revealed himself to have backed Kerry and Gore too. He was considering a senate run, but apparently isn't going for it. I hope he runs and gets trounced by someone downriver. He wouldn't sell down there. Too leftist and doesn't understand working people. Marc Corriveau is the democrat, and is actually an improvement over Stewart if you can say that. He won in 06 and 08 with one term left. Wayne made the difference, along with the City of Plymouth (competitive) and Northville (which flipped). He made it close in Plymouth Twp, which allowed Wayne to give him the win. This will be an important takeover attempt in 2010. Hopefully with Stewey out of the way causing problems, the GOP will be united between moderates and conservatives to take Michigan back.
| St Rep 20th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Vorva/Corriveau | 21,142 | 30,415 | 51,557 | -9273 | 41.01% | 58.99% | -17.99% | |
| 06 - Abbo/Corriveau | 19,146 | 20,056 | 39,202 | -910 | 48.84% | 51.16% | -2.32% | |
| 04 - Stewart/Corriveau | 28,732 | 19,448 | 48,180 | 9284 | 59.63% | 40.37% | 19.27% | |
| 02 - Stewart/Blackwell | 19,910 | 11,581 | 1027 | 32,518 | 8329 | 61.23% | 35.61% | 25.61% |
St Rep 19th - Most of the City of Livonia in Wayne County - This is the only GOP state seat right now in Wayne County. John Walsh had a big win for the open seat here. This is a must defense seat if the house will be taken back in 2010.
| St Rep 19th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Walsh/King | 29,752 | 19,829 | 49,581 | 9923 | 60.01% | 39.99% | 20.01% | |
| 06 - Pastor/Duggan | 22,632 | 18,377 | 41,009 | 4255 | 55.19% | 44.81% | 10.38% | |
| 04 - Pastor/Gebhardt | 26,265 | 23,168 | 49,433 | 3097 | 53.13% | 46.87% | 6.27% | |
| 02 - Pastor/Lowry | 22,170 | 12,210 | 895 | 35,275 | 9960 | 62.85% | 34.61% | 28.24% |
St Rep 18th - City of Westland in Wayne County. This district has been democrat for at least 12 years, probably more. They prefer more cultural moderates and populists than they do Ann Arbor types. Richard LeBlanc is a two term incumbent who won in 06 and 08. Glenn Anderson and Eileen DeHart held the seat before LeBlanc. This is a John Dingell type of district.
| St Rep 18th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - LeBlanc | 28,955 | 3730 | 32,685 | -28955 | 0.00% | 88.59% | -88.59% | |
| 06 - Durante/LeBlanc | 6,298 | 19,067 | 710 | 26,075 | -12769 | 24.15% | 73.12% | -48.97% |
| 04 - Lipford/Anderson | 10,811 | 22,773 | 541 | 34,125 | -11962 | 31.68% | 66.73% | -35.05% |
| 02 - Lipford/Anderson | 6,218 | 14,619 | 20,837 | -8401 | 29.84% | 70.16% | -40.32% |
St Rep 17th - Covers part of Dearborn Heights, Redford Twp, and a small part of Livonia in Wayne County. This was actually competitive in 2002, although the district has been democrat since somewhat pro-gun democrat Bob Brown took over in the 1990's over an anti-gun Republican. Since then the seat voted for Brown, Paltenko, and most recently Andy Dillon. This district is now similar to the Westland district in politics.
| St Rep 17th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Eggers/Dillon | 14,311 | 27,864 | 42,175 | -13553 | 33.93% | 66.07% | -32.14% | |
| 06 - Clampitt/Dillon | 7,336 | 25,158 | 32,494 | -17822 | 22.58% | 77.42% | -54.85% | |
| 04 - Husk/Dillon | 16,202 | 25,180 | 1084 | 42,466 | -8978 | 38.15% | 59.29% | -21.14% |
| 02 - Handy/Paltenko | 14,091 | 14,772 | 907 | 29,770 | -681 | 47.33% | 49.62% | -2.29% |
St Rep 16th - Covers Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster in Wayne County. This district is solidly democrat with Garden City and Inkster as the anchors. Bob Constan is the current rep.
| St Rep 16th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Smith/Constan | 9,133 | 28,195 | 37,328 | -19062 | 24.47% | 75.53% | -51.07% | |
| 06 - DeLozier/Constan | 7,002 | 19,346 | 26,348 | -12344 | 26.58% | 73.42% | -46.85% | |
| 04 - Lauster/Plakas | 9,259 | 25,756 | 1626 | 36,641 | -16497 | 25.27% | 70.29% | -45.02% |
| 02 - Homeier/Plakas | 5,595 | 16,693 | 913 | 23,201 | -11098 | 24.12% | 71.95% | -47.83% |
This is a competitive district that must be competed for in every election. McCotter dodged a bullet in 2008 considering the amount of money the democrat spent in that campaign. One guarantee is that he won't be caught off guard in 2010. This will be a district to watch in 2010, and is a must win for the GOP to take back the house, and also a must win at the top of the ticket as well take back state government from Granholm's poor job as governor.
Updated 5-18-2010 - I think we dodged two bullets for this district. One is Andy Dillon, running for governor. The other is Glenn Anderson who is running for re-election as state senator. Natalie Mosher is relatively unknown, and isn't who I'd expect the democrats to send to go after McCotter who had a narrow win in 2008. I still wouldn't take this seat for granted, but I'm less concerned now than I was going into this cycle.
