Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Congressional District 8 Updated 2013 (MI-08)

We got two major primaries here on both sides, so this is going to be interesting. Joe Hune running for State Senate eliminated a chance of my next congressman being from my county. The Rochester area will have our nominee. Barnett is the Rochester Hills Mayor and has a lot of Oakland County establishment support. Mike Bishop has Mike Rogers support and opened up an office in Livingston County. Tom McMillin has a lot of tea party and libertarian support.While Oakland will have our next nominee, the road to run runs through Livingston County.

On the dem side, Schertzing was recruited by the dem establishment. They wanted Whitmer or Byrum, but both declined. The other three candidates for them are sacrificial lambs.


MI-08 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Open with Mike Rogers retirement
Years in office as of 2014 election – 14

Challengers – Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing)

2012:
Mike Rogers – 202217 – 58.60%
Lance Enderle  – 128657 – 37.29%
73560 vote difference

Romney – 183240 votes – 51.10%
Obama – 171684 votes – 47.87%
11556 vote difference.

2008: (Approx)
McCain – 176239 votes – 46.38%
Obama – 197572 votes – 51.97%
-21243 vote difference

2004: (approx)
Bush – 195830 votes – 54.28%
Kerry –161383 votes – 44.73%
34447 vote difference

Note  - Rochester Hills renamed precincts between 08 and 12 so I’m estimating 04 and 08.

This district is a swing district that is a battle of the strongholds. It combines the 4th most democrat county in the state with the 3rd or 4th most republican county in the state and some of the most republican part of Oakland County. The keys here are to win your areas big and reduce the margins in the other base. It’s a Captain Obvious statement, but it is easier said than done. Base problems here can destroy your chances, as can alienating the swing voters.

Mike Rogers does a good job at striking that balance. He’s actually won Ingham County in the past, even once winning Lansing itself. He also runs ahead of everyone in Livingston County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012:
MI-0812A

MI-0812b

2008:
MI-0808

2004:
MI-0804

Ingham County is usually the 4th most democrat county in the state behind Genesee, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in that order. Kerry won it with 57.78% and by 22143 votes. Obama in 08 with 65.86% and 47511 votes, and Obama in 2012 with 63.43% and 35541 votes.  In 2004, Ingham was 36.88% of the district vote. In 08, it was 37.54% of the vote. In 2012, it was 35.54% of the vote.  Key base areas for the dems here are Lansing, Lansing Township, East Lansing, and Meridian Township (Okemos and Haslett) Lansing and Meridian Township alone make up about ½ of the county voters. Lansing is a mix of UAW, government related workers, minorities, and college students (MSU, Cooley, LCC). Lansing Township has historically been more auto-related in one part, and MSU related on the other. East Lansing is MSU and also government workers commuting to Lansing. It is usually the most democrat part of the district, although Lansing was this election. Meridian Township to the east of East Lansing is where a lot of MSU professors life, as do some students. The vote deficits we had to make up with those four places alone are as follows - 35839 in 2012, 45528 in 2008, and 27047 in 2004. That’s not easy to do.

There’s four swing areas in this county that are key. Delhi Twp (Holt), Mason, Leslie, and Williamston.  They are all areas with a lot of Lansing commuters and can be won by either side. Bush won them all in 04. Obama won them all twice.  In an open seat for this district – if the R’s win all of them, this district is safe. If all of them are lost, it’s going to be a nervous night. The Southern and Eastern outer portions of the county often lean R, but not always. The Byrums are from Onondaga, own a store in Stockbridge, and run ahead of the ticket. That area is independent, and a bad showing there (like 08) makes things very scary district wide.  If we keep the dems under 60%, we have the district. If we keep them under 57%, we have  good chance winning statewide.

East of there is my home. Livingston County.  This county is highly educated, strongly conservative, pro-business, and is distrustful of big city politics. Being an hour or less from Detroit, Flint, Lansing, or Ann Arbor, that’s to be expected. By Oakland  County or Ann Arbor standards, this is “past civilization.” We like it that way. There’s a strong 2nd Amendment , tea party, libertarian, and pro-life movement here, but there are also more pro-choice republicans than one would expect in a county where RTL is very strong. This area wasn’t as social conservative in the 90’s. The MEA is also fairly strong here considering how Republican this county is. The magic number for us percentage wise is about 63%. If we break 63%, we have a good chance of winning statewide. If we’re under 60%, it’s going to be bad. Mike Rogers always runs extremely well here. In bad years or bad candidates, R’s are sometimes held to 53-55%. McCain was held to 55.79%. In 04, Livingston’s 62.90% and 24969 vote spread was able to counterpunch Ingham County on its own. 08 was a whooping. McCain barely made a dent in Ingham’s vote spread. 2012 was a recovery of sorts as Romney set the highwater mark for raw votes and got the percentage up to 61.10%. That’s better than Bush 2000 and McCain. That still isn’t good enough. It made a good dent in Ingham’s spread, but not enough. There’s no real dem base here enough to cause a threat without special circumstances. Candidate quality is always key and can change things, but generic R always smashes generic D here 60-40 in normal November elections. Dems have some strength in nonpartisan races here, and are strong in small pockets of the county (a handful of precincts they sometime win). Usually it’s either places with apartment complexes and/or where a lot of teachers live. The MEA is the base of the dems in these parts. In our worst years, Brighton, Howell, Putnam Twp, Unadilla Twp, and maybe Hamburg Twp can flip narrowly. Usually they are around the 54/55% R range. In good years, those same areas can go for close to 60% R  Most of the county is blood red, less so in the incorporated cities, and less so near the Washtenaw County line. Down the road, who knows? Nobody saw Oakland County going for democrats back in 1984. Livingston County is still growing, and it is our job to educate new residents why this is a great place to live, and part of that is due to our longtime local conservative and republican leadership. Do we have threats on the horizon? Absolutely. Novi’s six miles from the county line and used to be as Republican as we are. Now it’s 50/50. I’m not taking anything for granted.

East of here is Oakland County. While Oakland is purplish to blue overall, this part of Oakland County is not much different than Livingston County in its voting behavior. Holly is competitive, but that’s about it. A lot of these areas vote about 60%R. Rochester and Rochester Hills are causes for concern with migration however. Independence Township is blood red and a base area. Most of this area is base republican and some of it is even rural which isn’t what one expects in Oakland County. This is much of the R base in Oakland County. This is mainstream conservative country, much like Livingston County.

Overall this district is largely heavily blue or red. There isn’t a lot of in-between. Mike Rogers wins big because he keeps his base, racks up large margins in Livingston and North Oakland, and does respectable (sometimes winning) in Ingham County. He even won Meridian Township last election, along with all the swing areas like Delhi Twp and Mason. That’s the blueprint for making this a “safe” district for an incumbent. Is there a way the dems can take this district? Yes. Holding the R’s to 55% in Livingston and 54% in Oakland, while racking up big margins in Ingham County as in 2008 will do that. Could that happen again? Yes, with poor candidate quality. That’s our challenge if Mike Rogers runs for Senate. 


District 8 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Ingham County





Alaiedon Twp 954 837 1818 117 52.48% 46.04%
Aurelius Twp 1192 980 2199 212 54.21% 44.57%
Bunker Hill Twp 498 445 952 53 52.31% 46.74%
Delhi Twp 5916 7364 13419 -1448 44.09% 54.88%
East Lansing 4560 11764 16487 -7204 27.66% 71.35%
Ingham Twp 720 510 1250 210 57.60% 40.80%
Lansing 11087 33661 45253 -22574 24.50% 74.38%
Lansing Twp 1260 2606 3918 -1346 32.16% 66.51%
Leroy Twp 999 735 1749 264 57.12% 42.02%
Leslie 351 391 755 -40 46.49% 51.79%
Leslie Twp 677 550 1244 127 54.42% 44.21%
Locke Twp 589 425 1026 164 57.41% 41.42%
Mason 1806 2057 3895 -251 46.37% 52.81%
Meridian Twp 8262 12977 21402 -4715 38.60% 60.63%
Onondaga Twp 735 706 1460 29 50.34% 48.36%
Stockbridge Twp 970 777 1772 193 54.74% 43.85%
Vevay Twp 1097 863 1975 234 55.54% 43.70%
Wheatfield Twp 587 429 1026 158 57.21% 41.81%
White Oak Twp 339 242 588 97 57.65% 41.16%
Williamston  987 1003 2010 -16 49.10% 49.90%
Williamstown Twp 1720 1525 3265 195 52.68% 46.71%
Total 45306 80847 127463 -35541 35.54% 63.43%







Livingston County





Brighton 2201 1828 4065 373 54.15% 44.97%
Brighton Twp 6964 3833 10903 3131 63.87% 35.16%
Cohoctah Twp 1042 539 1593 503 65.41% 33.84%
Conway Twp 1059 593 1671 466 63.38% 35.49%
Deerfield Twp 1417 797 2242 620 63.20% 35.55%
Genoa Twp 7186 3925 11224 3261 64.02% 34.97%
Green Oak Twp 6037 3888 10020 2149 60.25% 38.80%
Hamburg Twp 6918 5153 12185 1765 56.77% 42.29%
Handy Twp 2058 1425 3524 633 58.40% 40.44%
Hartland Twp 5143 2656 7880 2487 65.27% 33.71%
Howell 2249 1753 4079 496 55.14% 42.98%
Howell Twp 2146 1330 3520 816 60.97% 37.78%
Iosco Twp 1169 627 1818 542 64.30% 34.49%
Marion Twp 3620 1970 5635 1650 64.24% 34.96%
Oceola Twp 4108 2212 6389 1896 64.30% 34.62%
Putnam Twp 2369 1933 4353 436 54.42% 44.41%
Tyrone Twp 3496 2044 5602 1452 62.41% 36.49%
Unadilla Twp 901 710 1634 191 55.14% 43.45%
Total 60083 37216 98337 22867 61.10% 37.85%







Oakland County (pt)





Addison Twp 2302 1215 3564 1087 64.59% 34.09%
Brandon Twp 4552 3213 7850 1339 57.99% 40.93%
Clarkston 329 261 595 68 55.29% 43.87%
Groveland Twp 1864 1117 3007 747 61.99% 37.15%
Holly Twp 2752 2604 5433 148 50.65% 47.93%
Independence Twp 11841 7428 19484 4413 60.77% 38.12%
Oakland Twp 6663 3317 10051 3346 66.29% 33.00%
Orion Twp 11009 7644 18889 3365 58.28% 40.47%
Oxford Twp 6274 4058 10443 2216 60.08% 38.86%
Rochester 3930 3019 7015 911 56.02% 43.04%
Rochester Hills 1-8 509 301 815 208 62.45% 36.93%
Rochester Hills 1-14 986 675 1641 311 60.09% 41.13%
Rochester Hills 1-17 984 756 1752 228 56.16% 43.15%
RH 1-22 583 440 1033 143 56.44% 42.59%
RH 1-23 509 479 994 30 51.21% 48.19%
RH 1-26 1253 724 1981 529 63.25% 36.55%
RH 1-29 489 308 800 181 61.13% 38.50%
RH 2-4 475 478 961 -3 49.43% 49.74%
RH 2-7 465 386 856 79 54.32% 45.09%
RH 2-9 1028 754 1797 274 57.21% 41.96%
RH 2-10 661 526 1194 135 55.36% 44.05%
RH 2-18 704 422 1146 282 61.43% 36.82%
RH 2-19 696 414 1118 282 62.25% 37.03%
RH 2-21 835 458 1303 377 64.08% 35.15%
RH 2-25 1060 619 1690 441 62.72% 36.63%
RH 2-32 670 561 1241 109 53.99% 45.21%
RH 3-1 791 681 1493 110 52.98% 45.61%
RH 3-12 866 658 1537 208 56.34% 42.81%
RH 3-16 787 670 1473 117 53.43% 45.49%
RH 3-24 673 552 1229 121 54.76% 44.91%
RH 3-31 489 448 943 41 51.86% 47.51%
RH 4-5 720 635 1371 85 52.52% 46.32%
RH 4-11 443 550 1007 -107 43.99% 54.62%
RH 4-15 373 479 864 -106 43.17% 55.44%
RH 4-20 415 420 838 -5 49.52% 50.12%
RH 4-27 615 550 1174 65 52.39% 46.85%
RH 4-28 548 800 1361 -252 40.26% 58.78%
RH 4-30 759 782 1553 -23 48.87% 50.35%
Rose Twp 2024 1441 3517 583 57.55% 40.97%
Springfield Twp 4925 2778 7809 2147 63.07% 35.57%
Total 77851 53621 132822 24230 58.61% 40.37%







Total All 183240 171684 358622 11556 51.10% 47.87%


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