Congressional District 8 Updated 2013 (MI-08)

We got two major primaries here on both sides, so this is going to be interesting. Joe Hune running for State Senate eliminated a chance of my next congressman being from my county. The Rochester area will have our nominee. Barnett is the Rochester Hills Mayor and has a lot of Oakland County establishment support. Mike Bishop has Mike Rogers support and opened up an office in Livingston County. Tom McMillin has a lot of tea party and libertarian support.While Oakland will have our next nominee, the road to run runs through Livingston County.

On the dem side, Schertzing was recruited by the dem establishment. They wanted Whitmer or Byrum, but both declined. The other three candidates for them are sacrificial lambs.

MI-08 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Open with Mike Rogers retirement
Years in office as of 2014 election – 14

Challengers – Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing)

2012:

Mike Rogers – 202217 – 58.60%

Lance Enderle  – 128657 – 37.29%

73560 vote difference

Romney – 183240 votes – 51.10%

Obama – 171684 votes – 47.87%

11556 vote difference.

2008: (Approx)

McCain – 176239 votes – 46.38%

Obama – 197572 votes – 51.97%

-21243 vote difference

2004: (approx)

Bush – 195830 votes – 54.28%

Kerry –161383 votes – 44.73%

34447 vote difference

Note  - Rochester Hills renamed precincts between 08 and 12 so I’m estimating 04 and 08.

This district is a swing district that is a battle of the strongholds. It combines the 4^th most democrat county in the state with the 3^rd or 4^th most republican county in the state and some of the most republican part of Oakland County. The keys here are to win your areas big and reduce the margins in the other base. It’s a Captain Obvious statement, but it is easier said than done. Base problems here can destroy your chances, as can alienating the swing voters.

Mike Rogers does a good job at striking that balance. He’s actually won Ingham County in the past, even once winning Lansing itself. He also runs ahead of everyone in Livingston County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012:

2008:

2004:

Ingham County is usually the 4^th most democrat county in the state behind Genesee, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in that order. Kerry won it with 57.78% and by 22143 votes. Obama in 08 with 65.86% and 47511 votes, and Obama in 2012 with 63.43% and 35541 votes.  In 2004, Ingham was 36.88% of the district vote. In 08, it was 37.54% of the vote. In 2012, it was 35.54% of the vote.  Key base areas for the dems here are Lansing, Lansing Township, East Lansing, and Meridian Township (Okemos and Haslett) Lansing and Meridian Township alone make up about ½ of the county voters. Lansing is a mix of UAW, government related workers, minorities, and college students (MSU, Cooley, LCC). Lansing Township has historically been more auto-related in one part, and MSU related on the other. East Lansing is MSU and also government workers commuting to Lansing. It is usually the most democrat part of the district, although Lansing was this election. Meridian Township to the east of East Lansing is where a lot of MSU professors life, as do some students. The vote deficits we had to make up with those four places alone are as follows - 35839 in 2012, 45528 in 2008, and 27047 in 2004. That’s not easy to do.

There’s four swing areas in this county that are key. Delhi Twp (Holt), Mason, Leslie, and Williamston.  They are all areas with a lot of Lansing commuters and can be won by either side. Bush won them all in 04. Obama won them all twice.  In an open seat for this district – if the R’s win all of them, this district is safe. If all of them are lost, it’s going to be a nervous night. The Southern and Eastern outer portions of the county often lean R, but not always. The Byrums are from Onondaga, own a store in Stockbridge, and run ahead of the ticket. That area is independent, and a bad showing there (like 08) makes things very scary district wide.  If we keep the dems under 60%, we have the district. If we keep them under 57%, we have  good chance winning statewide.

East of there is my home. Livingston County.  This county is highly educated, strongly conservative, pro-business, and is distrustful of big city politics. Being an hour or less from Detroit, Flint, Lansing, or Ann Arbor, that’s to be expected. By Oakland  County or Ann Arbor standards, this is “past civilization.” We like it that way. There’s a strong 2^nd Amendment , tea party, libertarian, and pro-life movement here, but there are also more pro-choice republicans than one would expect in a county where RTL is very strong. This area wasn’t as social conservative in the 90’s. The MEA is also fairly strong here considering how Republican this county is. The magic number for us percentage wise is about 63%. If we break 63%, we have a good chance of winning statewide. If we’re under 60%, it’s going to be bad. Mike Rogers always runs extremely well here. In bad years or bad candidates, R’s are sometimes held to 53-55%. McCain was held to 55.79%. In 04, Livingston’s 62.90% and 24969 vote spread was able to counterpunch Ingham County on its own. 08 was a whooping. McCain barely made a dent in Ingham’s vote spread. 2012 was a recovery of sorts as Romney set the highwater mark for raw votes and got the percentage up to 61.10%. That’s better than Bush 2000 and McCain. That still isn’t good enough. It made a good dent in Ingham’s spread, but not enough. There’s no real dem base here enough to cause a threat without special circumstances. Candidate quality is always key and can change things, but generic R always smashes generic D here 60-40 in normal November elections. Dems have some strength in nonpartisan races here, and are strong in small pockets of the county (a handful of precincts they sometime win). Usually it’s either places with apartment complexes and/or where a lot of teachers live. The MEA is the base of the dems in these parts. In our worst years, Brighton, Howell, Putnam Twp, Unadilla Twp, and maybe Hamburg Twp can flip narrowly. Usually they are around the 54/55% R range. In good years, those same areas can go for close to 60% R  Most of the county is blood red, less so in the incorporated cities, and less so near the Washtenaw County line. Down the road, who knows? Nobody saw Oakland County going for democrats back in 1984. Livingston County is still growing, and it is our job to educate new residents why this is a great place to live, and part of that is due to our longtime local conservative and republican leadership. Do we have threats on the horizon? Absolutely. Novi’s six miles from the county line and used to be as Republican as we are. Now it’s 50/50. I’m not taking anything for granted.

East of here is Oakland County. While Oakland is purplish to blue overall, this part of Oakland County is not much different than Livingston County in its voting behavior. Holly is competitive, but that’s about it. A lot of these areas vote about 60%R. Rochester and Rochester Hills are causes for concern with migration however. Independence Township is blood red and a base area. Most of this area is base republican and some of it is even rural which isn’t what one expects in Oakland County. This is much of the R base in Oakland County. This is mainstream conservative country, much like Livingston County.

Overall this district is largely heavily blue or red. There isn’t a lot of in-between. Mike Rogers wins big because he keeps his base, racks up large margins in Livingston and North Oakland, and does respectable (sometimes winning) in Ingham County. He even won Meridian Township last election, along with all the swing areas like Delhi Twp and Mason. That’s the blueprint for making this a “safe” district for an incumbent. Is there a way the dems can take this district? Yes. Holding the R’s to 55% in Livingston and 54% in Oakland, while racking up big margins in Ingham County as in 2008 will do that. Could that happen again? Yes, with poor candidate quality. That’s our challenge if Mike Rogers runs for Senate. 

District 8	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Ingham County
Alaiedon Twp	954	837	1818	117	52.48%	46.04%
Aurelius Twp	1192	980	2199	212	54.21%	44.57%
Bunker Hill Twp	498	445	952	53	52.31%	46.74%
Delhi Twp	5916	7364	13419	-1448	44.09%	54.88%
East Lansing	4560	11764	16487	-7204	27.66%	71.35%
Ingham Twp	720	510	1250	210	57.60%	40.80%
Lansing	11087	33661	45253	-22574	24.50%	74.38%
Lansing Twp	1260	2606	3918	-1346	32.16%	66.51%
Leroy Twp	999	735	1749	264	57.12%	42.02%
Leslie	351	391	755	-40	46.49%	51.79%
Leslie Twp	677	550	1244	127	54.42%	44.21%
Locke Twp	589	425	1026	164	57.41%	41.42%
Mason	1806	2057	3895	-251	46.37%	52.81%
Meridian Twp	8262	12977	21402	-4715	38.60%	60.63%
Onondaga Twp	735	706	1460	29	50.34%	48.36%
Stockbridge Twp	970	777	1772	193	54.74%	43.85%
Vevay Twp	1097	863	1975	234	55.54%	43.70%
Wheatfield Twp	587	429	1026	158	57.21%	41.81%
White Oak Twp	339	242	588	97	57.65%	41.16%
Williamston	987	1003	2010	-16	49.10%	49.90%
Williamstown Twp	1720	1525	3265	195	52.68%	46.71%
Total	45306	80847	127463	-35541	35.54%	63.43%
Livingston County
Brighton	2201	1828	4065	373	54.15%	44.97%
Brighton Twp	6964	3833	10903	3131	63.87%	35.16%
Cohoctah Twp	1042	539	1593	503	65.41%	33.84%
Conway Twp	1059	593	1671	466	63.38%	35.49%
Deerfield Twp	1417	797	2242	620	63.20%	35.55%
Genoa Twp	7186	3925	11224	3261	64.02%	34.97%
Green Oak Twp	6037	3888	10020	2149	60.25%	38.80%
Hamburg Twp	6918	5153	12185	1765	56.77%	42.29%
Handy Twp	2058	1425	3524	633	58.40%	40.44%
Hartland Twp	5143	2656	7880	2487	65.27%	33.71%
Howell	2249	1753	4079	496	55.14%	42.98%
Howell Twp	2146	1330	3520	816	60.97%	37.78%
Iosco Twp	1169	627	1818	542	64.30%	34.49%
Marion Twp	3620	1970	5635	1650	64.24%	34.96%
Oceola Twp	4108	2212	6389	1896	64.30%	34.62%
Putnam Twp	2369	1933	4353	436	54.42%	44.41%
Tyrone Twp	3496	2044	5602	1452	62.41%	36.49%
Unadilla Twp	901	710	1634	191	55.14%	43.45%
Total	60083	37216	98337	22867	61.10%	37.85%
Oakland County (pt)
Addison Twp	2302	1215	3564	1087	64.59%	34.09%
Brandon Twp	4552	3213	7850	1339	57.99%	40.93%
Clarkston	329	261	595	68	55.29%	43.87%
Groveland Twp	1864	1117	3007	747	61.99%	37.15%
Holly Twp	2752	2604	5433	148	50.65%	47.93%
Independence Twp	11841	7428	19484	4413	60.77%	38.12%
Oakland Twp	6663	3317	10051	3346	66.29%	33.00%
Orion Twp	11009	7644	18889	3365	58.28%	40.47%
Oxford Twp	6274	4058	10443	2216	60.08%	38.86%
Rochester	3930	3019	7015	911	56.02%	43.04%
Rochester Hills 1-8	509	301	815	208	62.45%	36.93%
Rochester Hills 1-14	986	675	1641	311	60.09%	41.13%
Rochester Hills 1-17	984	756	1752	228	56.16%	43.15%
RH 1-22	583	440	1033	143	56.44%	42.59%
RH 1-23	509	479	994	30	51.21%	48.19%
RH 1-26	1253	724	1981	529	63.25%	36.55%
RH 1-29	489	308	800	181	61.13%	38.50%
RH 2-4	475	478	961	-3	49.43%	49.74%
RH 2-7	465	386	856	79	54.32%	45.09%
RH 2-9	1028	754	1797	274	57.21%	41.96%
RH 2-10	661	526	1194	135	55.36%	44.05%
RH 2-18	704	422	1146	282	61.43%	36.82%
RH 2-19	696	414	1118	282	62.25%	37.03%
RH 2-21	835	458	1303	377	64.08%	35.15%
RH 2-25	1060	619	1690	441	62.72%	36.63%
RH 2-32	670	561	1241	109	53.99%	45.21%
RH 3-1	791	681	1493	110	52.98%	45.61%
RH 3-12	866	658	1537	208	56.34%	42.81%
RH 3-16	787	670	1473	117	53.43%	45.49%
RH 3-24	673	552	1229	121	54.76%	44.91%
RH 3-31	489	448	943	41	51.86%	47.51%
RH 4-5	720	635	1371	85	52.52%	46.32%
RH 4-11	443	550	1007	-107	43.99%	54.62%
RH 4-15	373	479	864	-106	43.17%	55.44%
RH 4-20	415	420	838	-5	49.52%	50.12%
RH 4-27	615	550	1174	65	52.39%	46.85%
RH 4-28	548	800	1361	-252	40.26%	58.78%
RH 4-30	759	782	1553	-23	48.87%	50.35%
Rose Twp	2024	1441	3517	583	57.55%	40.97%
Springfield Twp	4925	2778	7809	2147	63.07%	35.57%
Total	77851	53621	132822	24230	58.61%	40.37%
Total All	183240	171684	358622	11556	51.10%	47.87%