Monday, May 23, 2005

Wayne County

Wayne County:
Location – Detroit Area
Population – 2,061,162 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 51.70% White, 42.16% Black, .37% American Indian, 1.70% Asian, 1.55% Some other Race, 2.49% Two or more races, 3.75% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Detroit (pop 951,270 as of 2000, estimated 900,198 today)

Wayne County is the most democrat county in the state by numbers and by percentage. It is also by far the largest county in the state. Wayne County’s politics are strongly regionalized between the City of Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Western Wayne County, and Downriver.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – Canton, Northville, Plymouth, Redford, and Van Buren Townships. Cities of Belleville, Garden City, Livonia, Northville, Plymouth, Wayne, Westland, and part of Dearborn Heights.

13th District – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) – Eastern Detroit, Ecorse, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, Lincoln Park, River Rouge, Wyandotte.

14th District – John Conyers (D) - Western Detroit, Allen Park, Most of Dearborn, Gibralter, Grosse Ile, Hamtramck, Highland Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, Trenton.

15th District – John Dingell (D) – Brownstown, Huron, and Sumpter Townships. Part of Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, Flat Rock, Inkster, Rockwood, Romulus, Taylor, and Woodhaven.


State Senators:
1st District – Hansen Clarke (D) – Detroit

2nd District – Martha Scott (D) – Detroit, Highland Park, Hamtramck, Harper Woods, and Grosse Pointes.

3rd District – Irma Clark (D) – Detroit

4th District – Samuel “Buzz” Thomas (D) – Detroit.

5th District – Burton Leland (D) – Detroit, Most of Dearborn Heights, Inkster

6th District – Laura Toy (R) – Garden City, Livonia, Redford, Westland

7th District – Bruce Patterson (R) – Brownstown, Canton, Grosse Ile, Huron, Northville, Plymouth, and Van Buren Townships. Cities of Belleville, Flat Rock, Gibralter, Northville, Plymouth, Rockwood, Trenton, and Woodhaven.

8th District – Raymond Basham (D) – Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne Wyandotte.

State Representative:
1st District – Edward Gaffney (R) – Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, and part of Detroit.

2nd District – LaMar Lemmons (D) – Detroit

3rd District – Lamar Lemmons (D) – Detroit

4th District – Mary Waters (D) – Detroit

5th District – Bill McConico (D) – Detroit, Hamtramck, Highland Park.

6th District – Marsha Cheeks (D) – Detroit

7th District – Virgil Smith (D) – Detroit

8th District – George Cushingberry (D) – Detroit

9th District – Tupac Hunter (D) – Detroit

10th District – Gabe Leland (D) – Detroit

11th District – Morris Hood (D) – Detroit and part of Dearborn

12th District – Steve Tobocman (D) – Detroit

13th District – Barbara Farrah (D) – Riverview, Southgate, Trenton, Wyandotte

14th District – Ed Clemente (D) – Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, River Rouge, part of Allen Park

15th District – Gino Polidori (D) – Dearborn

16th District – Jim Plakas (D) – Garden City, Inkster, part of Dearborn Heights and Allen Park

17th District – Andy Dillon (D) – Redford, part of Livonia and Dearborn Heights

18th District – Glenn Anderson (D) – Westland

19th District – John Pastor (R) – Livonia

20th District – John Stewart (R) – Plymouth and Northville (City and Townships), part of Canton Township, City of Wayne

21st District – Phillip LaJoy (R) – Canton and Van Buren Townships, Belleville

22nd District – Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D) – Romulus and Taylor

23rd District – Kathleen Law (D) – Brownstown, Huron, and Sumpter Townships. Gibralter, Grosse Ile, Rockwood and Woodhaven.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 57.24%, John Engler (R) – 42.76%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 50.44%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 48.19%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 68.54%, John Smietanka (R) – 31.46%

Congress:
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 65.68%, Travis Reeds (D) – 31.59%
13th District – Lynn Rivers (D) – 52.80%, Tom Hickey (R) – 45.00%
14th District – John Conyers (D) – 86.94%, Vendella Collins (R) – 11.11%
15th District – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) – 86.96%, Chrysanthea Boyd-Fields (R) – 10.32%
16th District – John Dingell (D) – 66.81%, William Morse (R) – 30.66%


State Senators:
1st District – Joe Young Jr (D) – 61.05%, Frank Palazzolo (R) – 36.57%
2nd District – Virgil Smith (D) – 92.17%, Wanda Gray (R) – 7.83%
3rd District – Raymond Murphy (D) – 94.71%, Erik Fiedler (R) – 5.29%
4th District – Jackie Vaughn III (D) – 96.50%, William Johnson (R) – 3.50%
5th District – Burton Leland (D) – 90.00%, Beverly Beal (R) – 10.00%
6th District – George Hart (D) – 53.41%, Rhonda Runco (R) – 43.80%
7th District – Chris Dingell (D) – 67.00%, Rick Bufkowksi (R) – 29.79%
8th District – Loren Bennett (R) – 52.52%, Kenneth Warfield (D) – 47.48%
9th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 61.85%, Carol Poenicsh (D) – 34.23%

State Representative:
1st District – Andrew Richner (R) – 68.55%, John Anderson (D) – 31.45%
2nd District – LaMar Lemmons (D) – 88.61%, Mary Williams (R) – 88.61%
3rd District – Artina Hardman (D) – 92.25%, Marlyss Landeros (R) – 5.31%
4th District – Ed Vaughn (D) – 95.84%, Cynthia Billings (R) – 4.16%
5th District – Ken Daniels (D) – 93.03%, Yolanda Haynes (R) – 6.97%
6th District – Martha Scott (D) – 94.02%, Raymond Prus (R) – 8.68%
7th District – Hansen Clarke (D) – 94.02%, Willie Cambell (R) – 5.98%
8th District – Belda Garza (D) - 85.13%, Cheryl Fobbs-Lewis (R) – 14.87%
9th District – Kwame Kilpatrick (D) – 95.40%, Kimberly Carpenter (R) – 4.60%
10th District – Samuel “Buzz” Thomas (D) – 96.43%, Henry Richard (R) – 3.57%
11th District – Irma Clark (D) – 93.07%, Raquel Reardon (R) – 6.93%
12th District – Keith Stallworth (D) – 96.96%, Tremell Anderson (R) – 4.04%
13th District – Triette Lipsy-Reeves (D) – 89.60%, Leodis Brown (R) – 10.40%
14th District – Derrick Hale (D) – Unopposed
15th District – Gary Woronchak (R) – 51.33%, Maureen Keane-Doran (D) – 44.81%
16th District – Bob Brown (D) – 59.14%, Lyle Van Houten (R) – 38.42%
17th District – Thomas Kelly (D) – 72.63%, Dan Smelser (R) – 25.25%
18th District – Eileen DeHart (D) – 62.29%, Steve Conley (R) – 34.86%
19th District – Laura Toy (R) – 61.26%, Patrick McRae (D) – 35.11%
20th District – Gerald Law (R) – 72.91%, Fred Dilacovo (D) – 23.87%
21st District – Bruce Patterson (R) – 64.43%, Ray Bailey (D) – 27.04%
22nd District – Raymond Basham (D) – 69.38%, Susan Lee Chimielewski (R) – 27.04%
23rd District – George Mans (D) – 61.04%, Elizabeth Kalabus (R) – 36.97%
24th District – William O’Neil (D) – 67.02%, Madeline Martin (R) -30.99%
25th District – Gloria Schermesser (D) – 69.39%, David Stone (R) – 27.91%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Debbie Stabenow (D) – 67.51%, Spence Abraham (R) – 30.09%

Congress:
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 57.13%, Mathew Frumin (D) – 38.19%
13th District – Lynn Rivers (D) – 59.92%, Carl Berry (R) – 36.74%
14th District – John Conyers (D) – 89.08%, William Ashe (R) – 9.27%
15th District – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) – 88.57%, Chrysanthea Boyd-Fields (R) – 9.03%
16th District – John Dingell (D) – 71.59%, William Morse (R) – 25.77%

State Representative:
1st District – Andrew Richner (R) – 61.61%, Patricia Cwiek (D) – 36.17%
2nd District – LaMar Lemmons (D) – 92.23%, Robert Ridley (R) – 5.37%
3rd District – Artina Hardman Tinsley (D) – 94.75%, Michael Embrey (R) – 3.59%
4th District – Mary Waters (D) – 96.29%, Robert Bruner (R) – 3.71%
5th District – Ken Daniels (D) – 95.84%, Marie Kaigler (R) – 4.16%
6th District – Bill McConico (D) – 93.11%, Anthony Elam Sr (R) – 6.89%
7th District – Hansen Clarke (D) – 94.80%, Curtis Jacobson (R) – 5.20%
8th District – Belda Garza (D) – 90.96%, Judith Montville (R) – 9.04%
9th District – Kwame Kilpatrick (D) – 96.02%, Lydia Polley (R) – 2.99%
10th District – Samuel “Buzz” Thomas (D) – 97.48%, Martin Royster (R) – 2.38%
11th district – Irma Clark-Coleman (D) – 93.86%, Charles Powell Jr (R) – 6.14%
12th District – Keith Stallworth (D) – 96.37%, Karen Mastney (R) – 2.38%
13th District – Triette Reeves (D) – 92.32%, Ernestine Nelson (R) – 7.68%
14th District – Derrick Hale (D) – 93.39%, Nicole Aikens (R) – 6.61%
15th District – Gary Woronchak (R) – 54.25%, Amanda Howe (D) – 42.82%
16th District – Bob Brown (D) – 67.14%, Colleen Wing (R) – 29.62%
17th District – Jim Plakas (D) – 76.61%, Delvyn Rockwell (R) – 23.39%
18th District – Glenn Anderson (D) – 62.52%, Patricia Gibbons (R) – 34.46%
19th District – Laura Toy (R) – 60.84%, Michael Burke Sullivan (D) – 35.84%
20th District – John Stewart (R) – 64.48%, David Gray (D) – 35.52%
21st district – Bruce Patterson (R) – 59.10%, Mickey Walsh (D) – 40.90%
22nd district – Raymond Basham (D) – 73.56%, Robert Chimielewski (R) – 22.92%
23rd District – George Mans (D) – 51.13%, Burl C Adkins (R) – 45.80%
24th District – William O’Neil (D) – 70.98%, Joseph Lenard (R) – 27.15%
25th District – Gloria Schermesser (D) – 74.82%, Jesse Church (R) – 21.76%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 67.81%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 31.05%
Secretary of State - Butch Hollowell (D) – 61.46%, Terri Lynn Land (R) – 36.72%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 65.49%, Mike Cox (R) – 32.19%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 75.56%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 23.07%
Congress:
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 54.81%, Kevin Kelley (D) – 42.01%
13th District – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) – 91.61%, Raymond Warner (Libertarian) – 8.39%
14th District – John Conyers (D) – 83.21%, Dave Stone (R) – 15.20%
15th District – John Dingell (D) – 73.55%, Martin Kaltenbach (D) – 24.20%

State Senate:
1st District – Hansen Clarke (D) – 93.66%, Cynthia Cassel (R) – 6.34%
2nd District – Martha Scott (D) – 67.96%, Jeffrey Schroder (R) – 32.04%
3rd District – Irma Clark (D) – 80.59%, Jose Hernandez III (R) – 19.40%
4th District – Samuel Buzz Thomas III (D) – 95.71%, Karen Mastney (R) – 4.29%
5th District – Burton Leland (D) – 82.81%, Bonnie Patrick (R) – 17.19%
6th District – Laura Toy (R) – 54.18%, Eileen DeHart (D) – 45.84%
7th District – Bruce Patterson (R) – 56.32%, George Mans (D) – 43.68%
8th District – Raymond Basham (D) – 64.22%, Pamela Sharon Montelauro (R) – 32.39%

State Representative:
1st District – Ed Gaffney (R) – 56.40%, David Paul Putrycus (D) – 43.60%
2nd District – Ken Daniels (D) – 95.03%, Herbert Russell (R) – 4.97%
3rd District – Artina Tinsley Hardman (D) – 95.82%, Michael Embrey (R) – 4.18%
4th District – Mary Waters (D) – 96.18%, Wayne A Senior (D) – 3.82%
5th District – Bill McConico (D) – 92.93%, Richard Maziarz (R) – 7.17%
6th District – Marsha Cheeks (D) – 93.71%, Dorothy Patterson (R) – 4.17%
7th District – Virgil Smith (D) – 96.11%, Dolores Broderson (R) – 3.89%
8th District – Alma Stallworth (D) – 97.38%, Melvin Byrd (R) – 2.62%
9th District – Tupac Hunter (D) – 94.47%, Richard Zeile (R) – 5.53%
10th District – Triette Lipsey Reeves (D) – 89.22%, John Nazers (R) – 8.56%
11th District - Morris Hood (D) – 94.70%, Charles Powell (R) – 4.22%
12th District – Steve Tobocman (D) – 90.19%, Chester Calka (R) – 9.81%
13th District – Barbara Farrah (D) – 64.66%, Darrell Stasik (R) – 33.07%
14th District – William O’Neil (D) – 73.95%, Chris O’Loughlin (R) – 26.05%
15th District – Gary Woronchak (R) - Unopposed
16th District – Jim Plakas (D) – 71.95%, Eric Homeier (R) – 24.12%
17th District – Daniel Paltefko (D) – 49.62%, R Miles Handy (R) – 47.33%
18th District – Glenn Anderson (D) – 70.16%, Kip Lipford (R) – 29.84%
19th District – John Pastor (R) – 62.85%, Kerry Lowry (D) – 34.61%
20th District – John Stewart (R) – 61.23%, Mark Blackwell (D) – 35.61%
21st district – Phil LaJoy (R) – 53.76%, Mark Slavens (D) – 44.03%
22nd District – Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D) – 68.85%, Ronald Vaughan (R) – 27.93%
23rd District – Kathleen Law (D) – 49.46%, Douglas Jones (R) – 48.51%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 54.10%, Phillip Truan (D) – 44.03%
13th District – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) – 78.16%, Cynthia Cassel (R) – 18.47%
14th District – John Conyers (D) – 83.93%, Veronica Pedraza (R) – 13.78%
15th District – John Dingell (D) – 71.44%, Dawn Ann Reamer (R) – 26.01%

State Representative:
1st District – Ed Gaffney (R) – 57.03%, C.J. Harrison (D) – 40.58%
2nd District – LaMar Lemmons (D) – 94.74%, Edith Floyd (R) – 5.26%
3rd District – LaMar Lemmons (D) – 95.69%, Michael Embry (R) – 4.31%
4th District – Mary Waters (D) – 96.06%, Carla Haska (R) – 3.94%
5th District – Bill McConico (D) - unopposed
6th District – Marsha Cheeks (D) – 91.98%, Dorothy Patterson (R) – 5.17%
7th District – Virgil Smith (D) – 96.43%, Dolores Brodersen (R) – 3.57%
8th District – George Cushingberry (D) – 95.69%, Melvin Byrd (R) – 4.31%
9th District – Tupac Hunter (D) – 95.02%, Richard Zeile (R) – 4.98%
10th District – Gabe Leland (D) – 90.70%, Reuben Myers (R) – 9.30%
11th District – Morris Hood (D) – 95.72%, Charles Powell Jr (R) – 4.28%
12th District – Steve Tobocman (D) – 86.69%, Anita Salazar (R) – 11.28%
13th District – Barbara Farrah (D) – 64.02%, Darrell Stasik (R) – 34.69%
14th District – Ed Clemente (D) – 72.56%, Theresa Dombrowski (R) – 27.44%
15th District – Gino Polidari (D) – 64.68%, Doug Thomas (R) – 35.32%
16th District – Jim Plakas (D) – 70.29%, Jeffrey Lauster (R) – 25.27%
17th District – Andy Dillon (D) – 59.29%, Darryl Husk (R) – 38.15%
18th District – Glenn Anderson (D) – 66.73%, Kip Lipford (R) – 31.68%
19th District – John Pastor (R) – 52.16%, Joan Gebhardt (D) – 47.84%
20th District – John Stewart (R) – 59.63%, Marc Corriveau (D) – 40.37%
21st District – Phillip LaJoy (R) – 57.68%, Ralph E Mayer (D) – 42.32%
22nd District – Hoon-Yung Hopgood (R) – 69.55%, Fred Kalsic (D) - 25.29%
23rd District – Kathleen Law (D) – 54.64%, Bill Vollenweider (R) – 43.71%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
WAYNE COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 223021 (29.02%), 530414 (69.01%)
2004 – Bush – 257750 (29.81%), 600047 (69.39%)

Allen Park City
2000 - 6607 (43.43%), 8260 (54.30%)
2004 – 7738 (47.02%), 8575 (52.11%)

Belleville City
2000 - 742 (40.52%), 1048 (57.24%)
2004 – 856 (42.69%), 1131 (56.41%)

Brownstown Township
2000 - 3412 (39.92%), 4944 (57.84%)
2004 – 5369 (43.31%), 6916 (55.79%)

Canton Township
2000 - 16435 (51.19%), 14974 (46.64%)
2004 – 21452 (51.62%), 19743 (47.51%)

Dearborn City
2000 - 20100 (51.69%), 17101 (43.98%)
2004 – 16686 (39.95%), 24456 (58.55%)

Dearborn Heights City
2000 - 11049 (45.32%), 12574 (51.58%)
2004 – 11128 (42.03%), 14902 (56.29%)

Detroit City
2000 - 15688 (5.22%), 282111 (93.88%)
2004 – 19343 (5.93%), 305258 (93.65%)

Ecorse City
2000 - 503 (12.87%), 3363 (86.08%)
2004 – 661 (16.37%), 3348 (82.91%)

Flat Rock City
2000 - 1259 (40.63%), 1769 (57.08%)
2004 – 1917 (45.78%), 2233 (53.33%)

Garden City
2000 - 5050 (41.14%), 6919 (56.37%)
2004 – 6241 (44.67%), 7588 (54.31%)

Gibralter City
2000 - 969 (47.34%), 1033 (50.46%)
2004 – 1186 (47.96%), 1271 (51.40%)

Grosse Ile City
2000 - 3965 (62.30%), 2236 (35.14%)
2004 – 4435 (62.58%), 2594 (36.60%)

Grosse Pointe City
2000 - 2157 (62.07%), 1229 (35.37%)
2004 – 2090 (56.95%), 1550 (42.23%)

Grosse Pointe Farms City
2000 - 4466 (69.88%), 1754 (27.44%)
2004 – 4390 (66.18%), 2187 (32.97%)

Grosse Pointe Park City
2000 - 3464 (51.66%), 2992 (44.62%)
2004 – 3547 (47.31%), 3868 (51.59%)

Grosse Pointe Township
2000 - 1449 (80.01%), 338 (18.66%)
2004 – 1423 (76.18%), 427 (22.86%)

Grosse Pointe Woods City
2000 - 6624 (64.91%), 3344 (32.77%)
2004 – 6900 (63.03%), 3942 (36.01%)

Hamtramck City
2000 – 1164 (26.43%), 3083 (70.00%)
2004 – 835 (17.14%), 3993 (81.94%)

Harper Woods City
2000 - 2952 (41.97%), 3862 (54.90%)
2004- 2997 (38.51%), 4690 (60.27%)

Highland Park City
2000 - 150 (2.94%), 4911 (96.29%)
2004 – 260 (4.83%), 5081 (94.44%)

Huron Township
2000 - 2602 (45.05%), 3053 (52.86%)
2004 – 3578 (50.77%), 3417 (48.48%)

Inkster City
2000 - 976 (10.51%), 8210 (88.39%)
2004 – 1254 (11.35%), 9729 (88.09%)

Lincoln Park City
2000 - 4697 (31.94%), 9590 (65.21%)
2004 – 5843 (34.50%), 10921 (64.49%)

Livonia City
2000 - 27319 (53.10%), 22756 (44.23%)
2004 – 30626 (54.36%), 25148 (44.64%)

Melvindale City
2000 - 1196 (32.68%), 2346 (64.10%)
2004 – 1514 (35.28%), 2726 (63.53%)

Northville City
2000 - 915 (56.27%), 667 (41.02%)
2004 – 955 (54.26%), 790 (44.64%)

Northville Township
2000 - 6954 (61.58%), 4058 (35.93%)
2004 – 9110 (61.22%), 5676 (38.14%)

Plymouth City
2000 - 2366 (49.33%), 2243 (46.77%)
2004 – 2557 (49.49%), 2553 (49.41%)

Plymouth Township
2000 - 8725 (57.64%), 6029 (39.83%)
2004 – 9828 (57.87%), 6987 (41.14%)

Redford Township
2000 - 9506 (42.60%), 12143 (54.42%)
2004 – 10244 (41.22%), 14276 (57.44%)

River Rouge City
2000 - 510 (14.48%), 2960 (84.04%)
2004 – 609 (15.91%), 3196 (83.49%)

Riverview City
2000 - 2558 (41.80%), 3445 (56.29%)
2004 – 3096 (44.21%), 3665 (53.81%)

Rockwood City
2000 - 609 (40.04%), 870 (57.20%)
2004 – 759 (44.21%), 948 (55.21%)

Romulus City
2000 - 2106 (25.68%), 5930 (72.32%)
2004 – 2848 (27.15%), 7563 (72.09%)

Southgate City
2000 - 4702 (35.60%), 8225 (62.27%)
2004 – 6048 (39.69%), 9046 (59.36%)

Sumpter Township
2000 - 1764 (40.13%), 2563 (58.30%)
2004 – 1979 (39.74%), 2963 (59.50%)

Taylor City
2000 - 7718 (35.22%), 13708 (62.55%)
2004 – 10444 (38.62%), 16377 (60.55%)

Trenton City
2000 - 4632 (44.31%), 5584 (53.41%)
2004 – 5495 (48.31%), 5778 (50.80%)

Van Buren Township
2000 - 3578 (39.40%), 5232 (57.61%)
2004 – 4993 (38.30%), 7353 (56.41%)

Wayne City
2000 - 2478 (36.23%), 4178 (61.08%)
2004 – 3037 (38.15%), 4852 (60.95%)

Westland City
2000 - 12348 (39.11%), 18310 (57.99%)
2004 – 14953 (40.80%), 21208 (57.87%)

Woodhaven City
2000 - 2427 (42.50%), 3194 (55.93%)
2004 – 3076 (47.29%), 3380 (51.96%)

Wyandotte City
2000 - 4427 (36.81%), 7275 (60.50%)
2004 – 5451 (40.21%), 7935 (58.53%)

This is the Death Star for the Republicans. Wayne County. Democrats pulled in a 350,000+ vote margin here in 2004, winning the state by about 165,000 votes.

Bush did make some inroads here, especially in downriver areas which are solidly democrat, although not as much as they once were. He did lose ground in the Grosse Pointe region, much as he lost ground in highly affluent areas across the state. (Kerry won among billionaires, Bush won among millionaires nationwide) Dearborn completely flipped and Hamtramck became more democrat in 2004. This is due to the Muslim vote over Iraq. That was expected. Grosse Pointe Park flipped to Kerry as well. Bush won semi-rural Huron Township downriver, which went for Gore last time.

Detroit turned out in major numbers, especially considering it has lost 50,000 people in the last 4 years. The area near Metro Airport, Westland (Although Bush gained here), Dearborn, D. Heights, and Redford are becoming much more democrat. Plymouth, Canton, and Northville all need to be watched to see if they follow Westland. Livonia has stayed about 53% GOP for awhile. Democrats think it’ll flip back to its Ed McNamara days. John Pastor had a tough re-election there for some reason(won with lower percentage than Bush) I'm not sure about. Livonia is more conservative than its surrounding area, so it’s hard to predict. I can see it flipping, or also staying GOP. Bush did gain more here than Kerry, unlike its surrounding areas. I think whether Livonia flips or not depends if blacks move there. That’s why Redford is now solidly democrat. Downriver is an area that should be ours, but the union mentality hurts us here. It’s socially conservative, but very populist and loyal to the party. John Dingell has a LOT of influence downriver and while I disagree with him on most issues outside of guns and the auto industry, I have a lot of respect for him and his work ethic. He outworks most people ½ his age. Bush made inroads here, and Posthumus did very well here in 2002 due to the Bohemian liberalism of Granholm. A good blue collar social conservative may make this area a contest in the futue. We’ll see what happens here.

Redistricting significantly altered the county. Knollenberg gave up his part of Wayne County to Thad McCotter. Lynn Rivers lost her part of Wayne County also to McCotter. Dingell lost much of his downriver region to Conyers and Kilpatrick who had to gain white areas because of Detroit shrinking in population. The state senate and state representative districts have also changed. Wayne lost some seats due to population loss.

McCotter’s district is marginally republican overall, and a strong democrat can make that race interesting. For the state senate, Laura Toy and Bruce Patterson’s district can swing in a good year for the democrats. For state rep, Kathleen Law’s downriver district can swing if Grosse Ile comes through big for us. Andy Dillon’s district has been competitive in the past, but I think Redford’s now past the point of no return with Detroiters now moving there in higher numbers. This is not the Redford of the past. Outside of myself, everyone in my dad’s side of the family older than 14 has lived in Redford at some point in their lives. Most of them are now West of I-275 in a classic migration pattern.

Wayne County will continue to be the top county for the democrats long into the future. Detroit is the most democrat city over 100,000 in the entire country. Most of the suburbs here have also been democrat for years. The best Republicans can do here is work hard and make inroads to reduce the margin of victory among the democrats. We don’t have to win Wayne County to win statewide. We just need to reduce the margin here by about 150,000. That’s tough, but not impossible.

2 comments:

Radcliffe said...

Great work, great analysis.

Like you said, the GOP's best chance to boost turnout in Wayne County might be downriver (far less labor there than there was 20 years ago) and Westland-Livonia. Still playing at the margins and Livonia will indeed depend on the amount of blacks who move there, or any "white flight." Livonia's politics are basically determined by one word: Wal-Mart. It's a huge issue there.

The GOP lives in the far-suburbs, especially the so-called "ex-urbs," of which there are none in Wayne Co. except Canton, Plymouth and maybe Northville. You've gotta drive on 96 to get there (Novi, Walled Lake).

Great job, I'm always checking.

MoSup said...

I have a small correction for you.

State Senate, District 2: Jeffrey Schroder is a Republican.