Friday, May 27, 2005

Saginaw County

Saginaw County:
Location – Saginaw/Bay/Midland/Flint area
Population – 210,039 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 75.33% White, 18.62% Black, .41% American Indian, .80% Asian, 2.88% Some other Race, 1.95% Two or more races, 6.70% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Saginaw (pop 59,045)

Saginaw County is a UAW and GM county, as is nearby Flint and Bay City. As such, it is a base county for the democrats.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – Albee, Brady, Brant, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Chapin, Cheasaning, Fremont, James, Jonesfield, Kochville, Lakefield, Maple Grove, Marion, Richland, Saginaw, Spaulding, St Charles, Swan Creek, Taymouth, Thomas, and Tittabawassee townships. City of Zilwaukee (part).

5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – Birch Run, Blumfield, Buena Vista, Frankenmuth, and Zilwaukee townships. Cities of Frankenmuth and Saginaw. Part of the City of Zilwaukee.

State Senators:
32nd District – Mike Goschka (R)

State Representative:
94th District – Roger Kahn (R) – Albee, Birchrun, Blumfield, Cheasaning, Frankenmuth, James, Maple Grove, Saginaw, St Charles, Swan Creek, Taymouth, and Thomas Townships. City of Frankenmuth.

95th District – Carl Williams (D) – Bridgeport, Buena Vista, and Spaulding Townships. City of Saginaw.

98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – Brady, Brant, Carrollton, Chapin, Fremont, Jonesfield, Kochville, Lakefield, Marion, Richland, Tittabawassee, and Zilwaukee Townships. City of Zilwaukee.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 63.44%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 36.55%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 66.06%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 32.72%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 53.58%, John Smietanka (R) – 46.42%

Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 89.69%, Dan Marsh (Lib) – 6.58%
5th District – James Barcia (D) – 74.44%, Donald Brewster (R) – 24.20%

State Senators:
33rd District – Mike Goschka (R) – 55.06%, Barbara McDonald (D) – 44.94%

State Representative:
94th District – Jim Howell (R) – 50.12%, Walter Wendling (D) – 49.88%
95th District – Michael Hanley (D) – 85.81%, Robert Zelle (R) – 14.19%
96th District – A.T. Frank (D) – 65.00%, Roland Jersevic (R) – 35.00%


2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Debbie Stabenow (D) – 51.32%, Spence Abraham (R) – 46.70%

Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 64.53%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (R) – 32.95%
5th District – James Barcia (D) – 76.51%, Ronald Actis (R) – 22.17%

State Representative:
94th District – Jim Howell (R) – 58.19%, Cheryl Hadsall (D) – 41.81%
95th District – Carl Williams (D) – unopposed
96th District – A.T. Frank (D) – 67.66%, Derek Eager (R) – 30.88%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 52.65%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 46.27%
Secretary of State - Butch Hollowell (D) – 50.13%, Terri Lynn Land (R) – 47.85%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 52.90%, Mike Cox (R) – 44.97%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 65.91%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 32.86%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 66.01%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 32.79%
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 92.42%, Clint Foster (Lib) – 4.97%

State Senate:
32nd District – Mike Goschka (R) – 52.96%, Mike Hanley (D)– 47.04%

State Representative:
94th District – Jim Howell (R) – 57.50%, Tim Braun (D) – 41.61%
95th District – Carl Williams (D) – 73.66%, Michael Howe (R) – 26.34%
98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – 54.43%, Lenny Lefevre (D) – 45.57%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 62.33%, Mike Huckleberry (D) – 36.91%
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 69.10%, Myrah Kirkwood (R) – 29.50%

State Representative:
94th District – Roger Kahn (R) – 59.05%, Timothy Muter (D) – 40.95%
95th District – Carl Williams (D) – 77.40%, Andrew Wendt (R) – 22.60%
98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – 60.86%, Stacy Jones (D) – 39.13%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
SAGINAW COUNTY
2000 - Bush – 41152 (43.89%), Gore – 50825 (54.21%)
2004 – Bush – 47165 (45.86%), Kerry – 54887 (53.37%)

Albee Township (Rural, South)
2000 - 360 (37.74%) 573 (60.06%)
2004 – 441 (40.57%), 635 (58.42%)

Birch Run Township (Between Frankenmuth and Clio)
2000 - 1471 (50.41%), 1385 (47.46%)
2004 – 1761 (53.75%), 1487 (45.39%)

Blumfield Township (East Edge)
2000 - 793 (69.56%), 327 (28.68%)
2004 – 896 (70.44%), 362 (28.46%)

Brady Township (Rural, West)
2000 - 496 (50.61%), 460 (46.94%)
2004 – 540 (47.91%), 560 (49.69%)

Brant Township (Rural, West)
2000 - 538 (57.91%), 369 (39.72%)
2004 – 620 (56.11%), 469 (42.44%)

Bridgeport Township (SE of City)
2000 - 1842 (35.45%), 3252 (62.59%)
2004 - 2103 (37.49%), 3474 (61.93%)

Buena Vista Township (E of City)
2000 - 634 (16.47%), 3173 (82.42%)
2004 - 713 (16.94%), 3472 (82.49%)

Carrollton Township (N of City)
2000 - 1073 (37.47%), 1727 (60.30%)
2004 – 1277 (42.16%), 1730 (57.11%)

Chapin Township (West. Rural)
2000 - 217 (58.02%), 146 (39.04%)
2004 – 260 (58.96%), 173 (39.23%)

Chesaning Township (West, Rural)
2000 - 1125 (46.37%), 1242 (51.20%)
2004 – 1280 (48.60%), 1328 (50.42%)

Frankenmuth City (East Edge)
2000 - 2137 (70.20%), 854 (28.06%)
2004 – 2337 (72.58%), 861 (26.74%)

Frankenmuth Township (East Edge)
2000 - 912 (76.83%), 257 (21.65%)
2004 – 989 (75.90%), 310 (23.79%)

Fremont Township (W Rural)
2000 – 616 (62.10%), 352 (35.48%)
2004 – 680 (61.15%), 422 (37.95%)

James Township (S Rural)
2000 - 539 (53.21%), 458 (45.21%)
2004 – 588 (52.74%), 522 (46.82%)

Jonesfield Township (W Rural)
2000 – 408 (51.13%), 373 (46.74%)
2004 – 474 (51.52%), 427 (46.41%)

Kochville Township (NW of City)
2000 - 571 (54.28%) 452 (42.97%)
2004 – 707 (55.06%), 563 (43.85%)

Lakefield Township (W Rural)
2000 - 314 (60.04%), 196 (37.78%)
2004 – 334 (56.13%), 249 (41.85%)

Maple Grove Township (S Rural)
2000 - 659 (46.25%), 740 (51.93%)
2004 – 731 (47.22%), 798 (51.55%)

Marion Township (W Rural)
2000 - 219 (57.78%), 154 (40.63%)
2004 – 240 (58.97%), 159 (39.07%)

Richland Township (W Rural)
2000 - 1286 (61.33%), 767 (36.58%)
2004 – 1555 (64.76%), 828 (34.49%)

Saginaw City
2000 - 5311 (23.79%), 16634 (74.50%)
2004 – 5800 (25.27%), 16992 (74.02%)

Saginaw Township (West of City)
2000 - 10875 (52.40%), 9499 (45.77%)
2004 – 12387 (53.06%), 10810 (46.30%)

Spaulding Township (S Rural)
2000 - 455 (40.95%), 639 (57.52%)
2004 – 491 (42.00%), 669 (57.23%)

St Charles Township (W Rural)
2000 - 703 (48.38%), 717 (49.35%)
2004 – 824 (51.50%), 758 (47.38%)

Swan Creek Township (W Rural)
2000 - 768 (57.70%), 528 (39.67%)
2004 – 863 (58.43%), 600 (40.62%)

Taymouth Township (S Rural)
2000 - 947 (44.99%), 1110 (52.73%)
2004 – 1072 (45.52%), 1258 (53.42%)

Thomas Township (W of City)
2000 - 3667 (56.90%), 2656 (41.21%)
2004 – 4305 (59.78%), 2846 (39.52%)

Tittabawssee Township (N of City)
2000 - 1814 (57.10%), 1296 (40.79%)
2004 – 2409 (60.12%), 1573 (39.26%)

Zilwaukee City (NE of City)
2000 - 378 (43.40%), 471 (54.08%)
2004 – 452 (46.99%), 505 (52.49%)

Zilwaukee Township (NE of City)
2000 - 24 (55.81%), 18 (41.86%)
2004 – 36 (67.92%), 17 (32.08%)

While Saginaw is a democrat leaning county, it isn’t quite as democrat as its reputation, nor is it as democrat as its whiter neighbor of Bay County which surprises me. The City of Saginaw is a stronghold, but the suburbs and rural areas are much more friendly to the GOP than either Genesee or Bay county. Frankenmuth is also one of the most republicans areas in the entire state.

Saginaw County is a very regional county. The City is strongly democrat, as are the southern, Eastern, and Northeastern burbs. The rural southern area is mostly democrat. The republican areas are the eastern edge near Frankenmuth, the rural western part of the county, and the Western suburbs.

Redistricting did not change the congressional district in Saginaw much as most of Camp’s district stayed the same. However, Barcia’s old thumb/Saginaw/Bay City district was dissolved. The Saginaw and Bay City parts were combined with Dale Kildee’s Flint district. The Camp district is strongly GOP, and the Kildee district is strongly democrat. The state senate district is the same. Mike Goschka is term limited and a dogfight is expected for this seat which covers all of Saginaw and Gratiot Counties. It’s a district with a slight democrat lean, but winnable for either party. The state rep districts hardly changed, but the AT Frank district was combined with Midland instead of Bay County, making that seat lean Republican instead of democrat. The rural district became more republican giving Bridgeport to Carl Williams.

Saginaw will be a key county for both parties in 06. The dems need a high turnout here to win statewide, and the state senate district is key for control.

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