Sunday, October 09, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 29 (SD-29)

State Senate - District 29
Current Rep – Dave Hildenbrand (R-Grand Rapids)

2010 Results - Old District (29th)
Dave Hildenbrand - 41,042
David LaGrand - 36,830

This district was a big defense for us in 2010. It was the third major tough election here in a row. The new district picks up competitive East Grand Rapids and solidly GOP Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, Caledonia Twp, and Grand Rapids Twp. It drops competitive Kentwood (Bush and Obama voting) to the 26th district, and small solid GOP areas like Grattan Twp and Vergennes Twp to the 28th district.

The old district was about 50/50,going for Bush by less than 1% point. This district is slightly better, but still very difficult. Obama had almost a 20,000 vote spread, and Bush had a 6400 vote spread. Part of that swing is McCain bombing in West Michigan compared to Bush. The other part is Grand Rapids itself - 2/3 of the district - is becoming more and more minority (20% black and 15.5% Mexican). This is still a swing district much like the old one, and I expect Dave Hildenbrand to have a tough re-election campaign in 2014. That said, Bill Hardiman won this district twice and Hildenbrand won it once, so it is better for the GOP downticket than it is at the top of the ticket.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 4668 2965 7633 1703 61.16% 38.84% 22.31%
Bowne Twp 1257 476 1733 781 72.53% 27.47% 45.07%
Caledonia Twp 4492 2259 6751 2233 66.54% 33.46% 33.08%
Cascade Twp 6610 4176 10786 2434 61.28% 38.72% 22.57%
East Grand Rapids 3155 3753 6908 -598 45.67% 54.33% -8.66%
Grand Rapids 28372 56146 84518 -27774 33.57% 66.43% -32.86%
Grand Rapids Twp 5716 4185 9901 1531 57.73% 42.27% 15.46%
Lowell  921 915 1836 6 50.16% 49.84% 0.33%
Lowell Twp 1734 1244 2978 490 58.23% 41.77% 16.45%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 56925 76119 133044 -19194 42.79% 57.21% -14.43%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 4933 2157 7090 2776 69.58% 30.42% 39.15%
Bowne Twp 1327 387 1714 940 77.42% 22.58% 54.84%
Caledonia Twp 4662 1570 6232 3092 74.81% 25.19% 49.61%
Cascade Twp 7254 3160 10414 4094 69.66% 30.34% 39.31%
East Grand Rapids 3807 3107 6914 700 55.06% 44.94% 10.12%
Grand Rapids 36115 45794 81909 -9679 44.09% 55.91% -11.82%
Grand Rapids Twp 6349 3077 9426 3272 67.36% 32.64% 34.71%
Lowell  1072 701 1773 371 60.46% 39.54% 20.92%
Lowell Twp 1885 1047 2932 838 64.29% 35.71% 28.58%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 67404 61000 128404 6404 52.49% 47.51% 4.99%








Last St Senate GOP  DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bowne Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Caledonia Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cascade Twp 5941 2185 8126 3756 73.11% 26.89% 46.22%
East Grand Rapids 1 1 2 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Grand Rapids 21957 27357 49314 -5400 44.52% 55.48% -10.95%
Grand Rapids Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Lowell  791 350 1141 441 69.33% 30.67% 38.65%
Lowell Twp 1578 539 2117 1039 74.54% 25.46% 49.08%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 30268 30432 60700 -164 49.86% 50.14% -0.27%

2 comments:

Conservative First said...

The old district was 39.3% McCain and the new district is 42.1% McCain. The old district was 54.9% 2006 average and the new district is 57.2% 2006 average.

Looks like about a 2.5% improvement. The new district also adds substantial portions of Hildenbrand's old house district. Thankfully, state senate elections are only held in off-years.

Republican Michigander said...

2.5% That sounds about right with Kentwood being dropped. Caledonia will be a major help for Hildenbrand. I know he knows that area well from the Posthumus years.