Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 15 (SD-15)

State Senate - District 15
Current Rep – Mike Kowall (R-White Lake)

2010 Results - Old District (15th)
Mike Kowall - 65,216
Pam Jackson - 39,233

This district is now less Republican because it had to contract in size due to population growth. Highland, Holly, and Rose Townships were given up to Dave Robertson. It still leans Republican, but could be future trouble in a bad year with the voting trends, 2010 not withstanding. West Bloomfield is a democrat stronghold. Wixom swings depending on turnout at the apartment complexes. Walled Lake is a swing area. Novi and Northville aren't as Republican as it used to be (some of the few ares where John Kerry outperformed Al Gore). Commerce Twp borders West Bloomfield. If migration patterns are similar as they used to be, then that will follow in its footsteps. White Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township, and Milford are solidly republican and should keep this district in line as long as the candidates do not completely bomb in Novi like McCain did in 08. The two major keys here are the voting deficit in West Bloomfield and the numbers in Novi.

I don't see Kowall losing this district, but an open seat could be dangerous with a contentious primary. I'll be surprised if it flips, but a candidate can't get in the mode of "the primary is over, so is the election" with West Bloomfield here. The good news is that there's only one state rep district in this state senate district that's democrat. The bad news is that losing Highland and Rose Townships reduce the margin of error.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 11428 9900 21328 1528 53.58% 46.42% 7.16%
Lyon Twp 4130 3009 7139 1121 57.85% 42.15% 15.70%
Milford 5105 3851 8956 1254 57.00% 43.00% 14.00%
Northville 1127 1001 2128 126 52.96% 47.04% 5.92%
Novi 13264 14397 27661 -1133 47.95% 52.05% -4.10%
Novi Twp 52 57 109 -5 47.71% 52.29% -4.59%
Orchard Lake 821 648 1469 173 55.89% 44.11% 11.78%
South Lyon 2983 2712 5695 271 52.38% 47.62% 4.76%
Walled Lake 1517 1823 3340 -306 45.42% 54.58% -9.16%
West Bloomfield Twp 13967 22730 36697 -8763 38.06% 61.94% -23.88%
White Lake Twp 8563 7196 15759 1367 54.34% 45.66% 8.67%
Wixom 3077 3495 6572 -418 46.82% 53.18% -6.36%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 66034 70819 136853 -4785 48.25% 51.75% -3.50%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 12019 7838 19857 4181 60.53% 39.47% 21.06%
Lyon Twp 4082 2274 6356 1808 64.22% 35.78% 28.45%
Milford 5413 3252 8665 2161 62.47% 37.53% 24.94%
Northville 1269 866 2135 403 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Novi 14484 10612 25096 3872 57.71% 42.29% 15.43%
Novi Twp 67 40 107 27 62.62% 37.38% 25.23%
Orchard Lake 938 580 1518 358 61.79% 38.21% 23.58%
South Lyon 3191 2236 5427 955 58.80% 41.20% 17.60%
Walled Lake 1664 1580 3244 84 51.29% 48.71% 2.59%
West Bloomfield Twp 16150 20317 36467 -4167 44.29% 55.71% -11.43%
White Lake Twp 9439 5821 15260 3618 61.85% 38.15% 23.71%
Wixom 3484 2552 6036 932 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 72200 57968 130168 14232 55.47% 44.53% 10.93%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 9650 4634 14284 5016 67.56% 32.44% 35.12%
Lyon Twp 3570 1389 4959 2181 71.99% 28.01% 43.98%
Milford 4608 1921 6529 2687 70.58% 29.42% 41.15%
Northville 1007 540 1547 467 65.09% 34.91% 30.19%
Novi 11277 6789 18066 4488 62.42% 37.58% 24.84%
Novi Twp 52 30 82 22 63.41% 36.59% 26.83%
Orchard Lake 755 297 1052 458 71.77% 28.23% 43.54%
South Lyon 2398 1167 3565 1231 67.27% 32.73% 34.53%
Walled Lake 1176 897 2073 279 56.73% 43.27% 13.46%
West Bloomfield Twp 11964 12892 24856 -928 48.13% 51.87% -3.73%
White Lake Twp 7655 3196 10851 4459 70.55% 29.45% 41.09%
Wixom 2379 1445 3824 934 62.21% 37.79% 24.42%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 56491 35197 91688 21294 61.61% 38.39% 23.22%

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