Current Rep – Mike Kowall (R-White Lake)
2010 Results - Old District (15th)
Mike Kowall - 65,216
Pam Jackson - 39,233
This district is now less Republican because it had to contract in size due to population growth. Highland, Holly, and Rose Townships were given up to Dave Robertson. It still leans Republican, but could be future trouble in a bad year with the voting trends, 2010 not withstanding. West Bloomfield is a democrat stronghold. Wixom swings depending on turnout at the apartment complexes. Walled Lake is a swing area. Novi and Northville aren't as Republican as it used to be (some of the few ares where John Kerry outperformed Al Gore). Commerce Twp borders West Bloomfield. If migration patterns are similar as they used to be, then that will follow in its footsteps. White Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township, and Milford are solidly republican and should keep this district in line as long as the candidates do not completely bomb in Novi like McCain did in 08. The two major keys here are the voting deficit in West Bloomfield and the numbers in Novi.
I don't see Kowall losing this district, but an open seat could be dangerous with a contentious primary. I'll be surprised if it flips, but a candidate can't get in the mode of "the primary is over, so is the election" with West Bloomfield here. The good news is that there's only one state rep district in this state senate district that's democrat. The bad news is that losing Highland and Rose Townships reduce the margin of error.
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Commerce Twp | 11428 | 9900 | 21328 | 1528 | 53.58% | 46.42% | 7.16% |
| Lyon Twp | 4130 | 3009 | 7139 | 1121 | 57.85% | 42.15% | 15.70% |
| Milford | 5105 | 3851 | 8956 | 1254 | 57.00% | 43.00% | 14.00% |
| Northville | 1127 | 1001 | 2128 | 126 | 52.96% | 47.04% | 5.92% |
| Novi | 13264 | 14397 | 27661 | -1133 | 47.95% | 52.05% | -4.10% |
| Novi Twp | 52 | 57 | 109 | -5 | 47.71% | 52.29% | -4.59% |
| Orchard Lake | 821 | 648 | 1469 | 173 | 55.89% | 44.11% | 11.78% |
| South Lyon | 2983 | 2712 | 5695 | 271 | 52.38% | 47.62% | 4.76% |
| Walled Lake | 1517 | 1823 | 3340 | -306 | 45.42% | 54.58% | -9.16% |
| West Bloomfield Twp | 13967 | 22730 | 36697 | -8763 | 38.06% | 61.94% | -23.88% |
| White Lake Twp | 8563 | 7196 | 15759 | 1367 | 54.34% | 45.66% | 8.67% |
| Wixom | 3077 | 3495 | 6572 | -418 | 46.82% | 53.18% | -6.36% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 66034 | 70819 | 136853 | -4785 | 48.25% | 51.75% | -3.50% |
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Commerce Twp | 12019 | 7838 | 19857 | 4181 | 60.53% | 39.47% | 21.06% |
| Lyon Twp | 4082 | 2274 | 6356 | 1808 | 64.22% | 35.78% | 28.45% |
| Milford | 5413 | 3252 | 8665 | 2161 | 62.47% | 37.53% | 24.94% |
| Northville | 1269 | 866 | 2135 | 403 | 59.44% | 40.56% | 18.88% |
| Novi | 14484 | 10612 | 25096 | 3872 | 57.71% | 42.29% | 15.43% |
| Novi Twp | 67 | 40 | 107 | 27 | 62.62% | 37.38% | 25.23% |
| Orchard Lake | 938 | 580 | 1518 | 358 | 61.79% | 38.21% | 23.58% |
| South Lyon | 3191 | 2236 | 5427 | 955 | 58.80% | 41.20% | 17.60% |
| Walled Lake | 1664 | 1580 | 3244 | 84 | 51.29% | 48.71% | 2.59% |
| West Bloomfield Twp | 16150 | 20317 | 36467 | -4167 | 44.29% | 55.71% | -11.43% |
| White Lake Twp | 9439 | 5821 | 15260 | 3618 | 61.85% | 38.15% | 23.71% |
| Wixom | 3484 | 2552 | 6036 | 932 | 57.72% | 42.28% | 15.44% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 72200 | 57968 | 130168 | 14232 | 55.47% | 44.53% | 10.93% |
| Last St Senate | GOP | Dem | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Commerce Twp | 9650 | 4634 | 14284 | 5016 | 67.56% | 32.44% | 35.12% |
| Lyon Twp | 3570 | 1389 | 4959 | 2181 | 71.99% | 28.01% | 43.98% |
| Milford | 4608 | 1921 | 6529 | 2687 | 70.58% | 29.42% | 41.15% |
| Northville | 1007 | 540 | 1547 | 467 | 65.09% | 34.91% | 30.19% |
| Novi | 11277 | 6789 | 18066 | 4488 | 62.42% | 37.58% | 24.84% |
| Novi Twp | 52 | 30 | 82 | 22 | 63.41% | 36.59% | 26.83% |
| Orchard Lake | 755 | 297 | 1052 | 458 | 71.77% | 28.23% | 43.54% |
| South Lyon | 2398 | 1167 | 3565 | 1231 | 67.27% | 32.73% | 34.53% |
| Walled Lake | 1176 | 897 | 2073 | 279 | 56.73% | 43.27% | 13.46% |
| West Bloomfield Twp | 11964 | 12892 | 24856 | -928 | 48.13% | 51.87% | -3.73% |
| White Lake Twp | 7655 | 3196 | 10851 | 4459 | 70.55% | 29.45% | 41.09% |
| Wixom | 2379 | 1445 | 3824 | 934 | 62.21% | 37.79% | 24.42% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 56491 | 35197 | 91688 | 21294 | 61.61% | 38.39% | 23.22% |
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