Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 15 (HD-15)

State House - District 15
Current Rep – George Darany (D-Dearborn)

Declared Candidates:
GOP - Priscilla Parness (R-Dearborn)
Dem - George Darany (D-Dearborn)

Update 5-25-2012 - No primary here. I was hoping Sareini would make another run because it was close last time. We'll see what happens here. Dearborn is tough but winnable under the right circumstances and conditions.

2010 Results - Old District (15th)
George Darany - 12,408
Suzanne Sareini - 10,221

Surprisingly, this open seat was close. Dearborn is usually democrat although sometimes competitive. Bush won it in 2000. The War in Iraq was extremely unpopular among most here, and Kerry and Obama won big here in 2004 and 2008. Dingell also has won here for years. Despite what some think from reading Debbie Schlussel's blog, Dearborn is not pronounced Dearbornistan, nor does it have the problems you read about on the news in some of the immigrant areas of the Netherlands, Paris suburbs, or London. It is largely Arab, but also majority working class. While the Middle Eastern population in Michigan is majority Christian (Largely Orthodox or Catholic), Dearborn's Middle Eastern population is more Muslim. The black population is also increasing, although not is much as some other Detroit border cities.

It'll be interesting to see what Obama's policies, which branch of the GOP wins the primary, and if either the neoconservative or paleoconservative influences tend to dominate. Paleoconservatives can make inroads here. Neoconservatives need not apply at all. That's due to both the Middle Eastern and also the labor/trade influences from the whites.

The new 15th covers almost all of Dearborn except two precincts bordering Detroit. The numbers I'm using for president are off some because it covers the entire city. There's little change in the district which is entirely in the city of Dearborn.

2000:
Bush - 20,100
Gore - 17,101

2004:
Kerry - 24,456
Bush - 16,686

2008:
Obama - 27,253
McCain - 13,761

Nationally, Dearborn is gone and won't be close at least until foreign policy alignments occur within the parties. Neoconservatism's influence has been dropping overall some with the rise of the tea party which is a bit more realist or isolationist. However, I think it will take at least two presidential cycles for that to occur.

For state rep, there's more promise, going from 2-1 DEM under moderate Polidori to a close 2000 vote win in Darany's first term. I think it's Darany's to lose, but this could be a darkhorse if the GOP presidential campaigns don't foul it up downticket.

3 comments:

Conservative First said...

The GOP really blew an opportunity here. They could have drawn a district containing west Dearborn, Allen Park, and south Dearborn Heights that would lean Republican. That district would not contain any part of any current Republican district, so protecting incumbents can't be a reason for not drawing it. Dearborn has to be split regardless, and it is possible to split fewer cities overall.

M. Tiba said...

I'm considering a run here. I believe if I could receive Suzanne's 10,221 votes, assuming I get the younger voters out, I could easily capture another 2,500 on top of that.

I am 24, a native of Dearborn, and a Muslim. The Muslim population is leaning towards libertarianism, and I am the Libertarian-Republican candidate.

Also, thank you for your input. It helps my campaign.

CHRIS PAULSEN said...

Darany may need to find another job in 2015. I am a Wayne County Sheriff Deputy, Small Business Owner (Construction), and tired of local democrats destroying my HomeTown of Dearborn & Wayne County. I looking for help in getting a campaign launch. I am a career civil servant, and not a career politician. Any help or tips would be useful.

Contact: cpaulsen5891@att.net