Thursday, May 23, 2013

Congressional District 14 - Updated 2013 (MI-14)

2014 Update - Hansen Clarke came in on filing deadline wanting his old job back. He's got two strong opponents both from Southfield in Rudy Hobbs and Brenda Lawrence. Interesting last name for the Republican here. I wonder if Christina is related to John. That's not all that common of a last name.

MI-14 Update - 2013


The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent  - Open in 2014, Gary Peters running for Senate

Challengers –Christina Conyers (R-Detroit), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), Burgess Foster (D-Detroit), Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield)

2012:
Gary Peters – 222535 – 81.79%
John Hauler  – 38380 – 16.03%
-201687 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney  – 18.44%
Obama – 81.08%

2008:  Approx
McCain – 18.28%
Obama – 81.00%

2004:  approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%


Notes  -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said. 

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac. 


For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)
MI1312

2008
MI-1408

2004
MI-1404

Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and  black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.

West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.

Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.

Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.

MI-14 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Oakland County





Farmington Hills 17784 26351 44487 -8567 39.98% 59.23%
Keego Harbor 572 666 1251 -94 45.72% 53.24%
Lathrup Village 462 2411 2896 -1949 15.95% 83.25%
Oak Park 2320 12956 15338 -10636 15.13% 84.47%
Orchard Lake 944 537 1490 407 63.36% 36.04%
Pontiac 2464 18964 21545 -16500 11.44% 88.02%
Royal Oak Twp 5 1515 1526 -1510 0.33% 99.28%
Southfield 4420 39052 43664 -34632 10.12% 89.44%
Sylvan Lake 565 551 1126 14 50.18% 48.93%
West Bloomfield 16243 21064 37563 -4821 43.24% 56.08%
WB 2 -809 -777 -1605 -32 50.40% 48.41%
WB 4 -836 -805 -1656 -31 50.48% 48.61%
WB 5 -797 -791 -1602 -6 49.75% 49.38%
WB 8 -1036 -805 -1852 -231 55.94% 43.47%
WB 14 -612 -555 -1178 -57 51.95% 47.11%
WB 25 -845 -753 -1617 -92 52.26% 46.57%
Total 40844 119581 161376 -78737 25.31% 74.10%







Wayne County





Detroit 2708 126784 129862 -124076 2.09% 97.63%
Grosse Pointe 1976 1517 3509 459 56.31% 43.23%
GP Farms 2426 1469 3916 957 61.95% 37.51%
GP Park 3350 3748 7154 -398 46.83% 52.39%
GP Shores 1449 427 1879 1022 77.12% 22.72%
GP Woods 6157 4266 10469 1891 58.81% 40.75%
Hamtramck 535 4788 5376 -4253 9.95% 89.06%
Harper Woods 1626 5906 7577 -4280 21.46% 77.95%
Total 20227 148905 169742 -128678 11.92% 87.72%







Total All 61071 268486 331118 -207415 18.44% 81.08%

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