Congressional District 6 - Updated (MI-06)

2014 Update:
Fred Upton has another primary. This time it is Jim Bussler, a nurse out of Dowagiac. Upton has had tough primaries over some votes in the past, but has survived them, even when others like Joe Schwarz did not. The dems are running Paul Clements, a sacrificial lamb candidate. However, nothing is 100% here with Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor.

MI-06 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Fred Upton  (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 28

Challengers – Jim Bussler (R-Dowagiac), Paul Clements (D-Kalamazoo)

2012:

Fred Upton – 174955 – 54.59%

Mike O’Brien  – 136536 – 42.61%

38392 vote difference

Romney –  162809 votes – 50.08%

Obama –  159024 votes – 48.76%

4413 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 155186 votes – 45.09%

Obama – 182750 votes – 53.24%

-28063  vote difference

2004:

Bush – 175704 votes – 53.73%

Kerry – 148028 votes – 45.27%

27676 vote difference

This district is – on paper – a swing district. It has some strong GOP and strong democrat areas and is usually close in presidential elections. On paper is what’s key. Despite being competitive in presidential races, the only base that elects state reps is in the City of Kalamazoo. They have no democrat state senate districts (although contend for one all elections) and only have one state rep. That’s not to say that we don’t need to keep an eye on things here.

Fred Upton’s a moderate republican whose toughest election was 2012. It was his first general election win with less than 55% of the vote. He did better in even 2006 and 2008, overall horrific years. Conservatives never were enamored with him. Liberals aren’t crossing over for him as they used to. He’s biggest strength is in his home area of St Joe in Berrien County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in District 5. I did three maps here because this district is so close in 2012. 04 was the high side recently, and 2012 is the low side.  The maps are in order of most recent election of the three. I don’t have exact Holland borders here because of the city re-precincting names between 08-12. I may be slightly off with Berrien County townships as well. The last two maps cut off the top part of Allegan County. It’s mostly 70%+ across the board every election.

 

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green (City of Hartford in Van Buren County)

2012:

 

2008:

2004:

Starting at the top with Allegan County. Allegan County has part Holland influence, part Grand Rapids influence, and part Kalamazoo influence. Allegan County is a GOP Stronghold at 59%, but looking at the microlevel, you’ll see that the dems are not without strength here. The GOP is strong because that Northern tier is absolutely blood red. Overisel Twp is the 2^nd most GOP township in the state in 2012 (at times it is first). That’s as much a part of the Dutch area as Ottawa County is. The southern tier is competitive, although Bush almost swept it in 2004. Bush did extremely well in the competitive areas. Of the areas Romney lost, Bush won Allegan, Cheshire Twp, Clyde Twp, Fennville, Otsego, Otsego Twp, Plainwell, and the portion of South Haven. He lost Lee Twp, Saugatuck, and Saugatuck Twp. Douglas wasn’t incorporated as a city then and part of Saugatuck Twp, so he probably lost that too.

The dems have Saugatuck/Douglas which is the gay capital of West Michigan (or so I’ve heard.) Fennville has a large Mexican population as does Clyde and Lee Townships. I’m not 100% sure, but I think Plainwell and Otsego have union presence. It’s also close to Kalamazoo. South Haven is dem, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Obama got 70% in the Allegan part, but that’s due to winning 5-2. (It’s usually 50-55% dem citywide) Still, we’re bleeding here. Bush got 62.52% here in the district part of Allegan (almost all of it). McCain dropped to 54.08%. Romney got 59.22 in a recovery, but there’s still a lot more blue here than 2004. The dems are making inroads. Are we in danger of losing this county? No way – not with the northern part of the county. Will that southern tier factor in a congressional race? That’s a possibility, when you have Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor in the district.

Kalamazoo County is the biggest part of the district. It’s also trending to the left. It was close to 50/50 in 2000. It was 51/47 in 2004. 59/39 in 08. Romney controlled some of the bleeding and it’s now 56/43. Downticket, it’s not AS bad, but still a cause of concern. I don’t know this county as well as blogger Conservative First from the Western Right blog. He can correct any errors I have here. Bush lost only four municipalities in 2004. Romney lost seven. (McCain 9). The four Bush lost are Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, and Galesburg. Kalamazoo City is a dem stronghold. You have WMU in the western part of the city, and a high black population in the north end. Kalamazoo Twp has some of those same areas to a lesser extent. The problem today is that Bush’s 32% (-10,000 vote spread) and 41% (-1760) are now Romney’s 24.50% (-14662) and 33%. (-3477). Oshtemo and Comstock townships are to the West and East. Oshtemo Twp is WMU country. It’s gone from close to 50/50 to 57% dem. Galesburg is blue, but not by a giant margin. It’s those three municipalities Romney lost that Bush didn’t that scare me. Portage, Comstock Twp, and Parchment. Those are three suburbs that border Kalamazoo. I don’t know those suburbs in depth except that Portage is the 2^nd largest city in the county. It’s always been close, but Bush won it twice. Parchment is rapidly going blue. Romney did worse than McCain there. I don’t know much about Comstock outside of Bell’s beer. It’s still close. Those three areas are the key to reducing losses in the county. We have to do so here.

St Joseph County (City is in Berrien County) to the Southeast I know very little about and I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country. The only area that went for Obama was Three Rivers. Bush did very well in the rural parts of SW and South Central Michigan along the I-94 corridor and I-69 N/S Corridor – much better than both Romney and McCain. Romney won it with 55.55%, but Bush broke 60% here. McCain cratered and barely won it. Three Rivers is reliably dem. Romney and Bush both won the rest of the area, although Bush to a much larger degree.

Cass County to the West I know very little about. I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country, and it was a major stop on the Underground Railroad. It has a sizable black population for a rural county (Dowagiac, Cassopolis and Vandalia) that goes back 150 years, although the population is much lower than Berrien County. It’s also prone to wild election swings. Bush and Romney got 57 and 56% with a similar number of votes. Bush struggled here more in 2000. McCain cratered here with 46.89%. McCain didn’t break 57% in any municipality. Romney broke 60%+ in 6 of them, Bush in 5 of them. McCain lost 8 municipalities, Romney lost three and Bush lost two. LaGrange Twp and Dowagiac are the constant dem areas. Calvin Twp went for Obama twice, but Bush won it in 2004. In a district like the 6^th, this is a key area for the R’s.

Van Buren County is erratic, but has had a bit of a blue taint lately. There’s a sizable Chicago influence here, and no Benton Harbor to counter-influence. The Mexican population has increased here as well with the farms. Bush won the area narrowly. Romney lost it by 160 votes. Obama won Antwerp Twp twice. Covert twp is heavily minority. South Haven is a former small industrial area now a tourist haven for Chicagoland. Bangor, Decatur Twp, Geneva Twp, Paw Paw Twp, and South Haven City/Twp have gone dem the last three presidential elections, mostly narrowly in Bush’s case, but less so for Romney. It’s been close in elections since 92, and is a key county in this district. Hopefully Obama being gone will flip this district as Chicago homerism is less of a factor.

Lastly, Berrien County is the battle of strongholds. It’s the Southwest corner of Michigan, and you are as likely to see Chicago sports teams supported as Detroit teams. New Buffalo is about an hour away from there, and there’s a lot of vacation homes there. Niles is across the border from South Bend, which is the closest major city. There are a couple swing areas that are competitive, like Buchanan and New Buffalo, but most of this district is heavily red or blue. A candidate wins by turning out the base and narrowing the wins in other parts of the district. The three strongholds for the dems here are Benton Harbor, Benton Township, and to a much lesser extent, Niles. Niles sometimes is close. Benton Township/Benton Harbor is majority black and votes accordingly. Obama won the township with about 75%, and the city 97%+ the last two elections. Kerry won the two areas by 5800, Obama in 2008 by 7900 and in 2012 by 6600. Lincoln Township is the big Republican stronghold, along with many of  the smaller townships (60%+). They also do well in St Joseph (almost always called St Joe) by a lesser amount. Bush won the county by 8200 votes, McCain lost by 4200, and Romney won by 4700. It leans R, but not safe. This is also a key county in the district if it opens up. Obama being gone may make this more Republican as Chicago homerism wanes. 

District 6	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Allegan County
Allegan	765	989	1790	-224	42.74%	55.25%
Allegan Twp	987	953	1967	34	50.18%	48.45%
Casco Twp	707	689	1412	18	50.07%	48.80%
Cheshire Twp	420	441	874	-21	48.05%	50.46%
Clyde Twp	326	400	744	-74	43.82%	53.76%
Door Twp	2545	1124	3728	1421	68.27%	30.15%
Douglas	266	447	719	-181	37.00%	62.17%
Fennville	162	243	415	-81	39.04%	58.55%
Fillmore Twp	1184	240	1436	944	82.45%	16.71%
Ganges Twp	693	655	1363	38	50.84%	48.06%
Gunplain Twp	1560	1398	2994	162	52.10%	46.69%
Heath Twp	1267	400	1695	867	74.75%	23.60%
Holland 9-4	555	320	886	235	62.64%	36.12%
Holland 11-5	511	331	852	180	59.98%	38.85%
Holland 12-5	691	269	964	422	71.68%	27.90%
Hopkins Twp	817	450	1277	367	63.98%	35.24%
Laketown Twp	2433	1172	3631	1261	67.01%	32.28%
Lee Twp	395	480	889	-85	44.43%	53.99%
Leighton Twp	1954	607	2585	1347	75.59%	23.48%
Manlius Twp	1023	475	1505	548	67.97%	31.56%
Martin Twp	746	420	1183	326	63.06%	35.50%
Monterey Twp	631	374	1031	257	61.20%	36.28%
Otsego	700	852	1576	-152	44.42%	54.06%
Otsego Twp	1238	1245	2522	-7	49.09%	49.37%
Overisel Twp	1372	223	1619	1149	84.74%	13.77%
Plainwell	761	882	1662	-121	45.79%	53.07%
Salem Twp	1606	544	2180	1062	73.67%	24.95%
Saugatuck	230	357	598	-127	38.46%	59.70%
Saugatuck Twp	874	907	1797	-33	48.64%	50.47%
South Haven (part)	2	5	7	-3	28.57%	71.43%
Trowbridge Twp	600	525	1153	75	52.04%	45.53%
Valley Twp	474	385	876	89	54.11%	43.95%
Watson Twp	509	392	913	117	55.75%	42.94%
Wayland	899	719	1644	180	54.68%	43.73%
Wayland Twp	885	602	1499	283	59.04%	40.16%
Total	30788	20515	51986	10273	59.22%	39.46%
Berrien County
Bainbridge Twp	976	405	1397	571	69.86%	28.99%
Baroda Twp	908	453	1379	455	65.84%	32.85%
Benton Harbor	92	3797	3906	-3705	2.36%	97.21%
Benton Township	1461	4393	5893	-2932	24.79%	74.55%
Berrien Twp	1400	802	2234	598	62.67%	35.90%
Bertrand Twp	902	495	1408	407	64.06%	35.16%
Bridgman	664	455	1134	209	58.55%	40.12%
Buchanan	909	887	1829	22	49.70%	48.50%
Buchanan Twp	1011	604	1638	407	61.72%	36.87%
Chikaming Twp	928	863	1818	65	51.05%	47.47%
Coloma	434	264	705	170	61.56%	37.45%
Coloma Twp	1494	728	2237	766	66.79%	32.54%
Galien Twp	342	269	617	73	55.43%	43.60%
Hagar Twp	1002	622	1648	380	60.80%	37.74%
Lake Twp	1060	613	1699	447	62.39%	36.08%
Lincoln Twp	5367	2589	8044	2778	66.72%	32.19%
New Buffalo	423	493	923	-70	45.83%	53.41%
New Buffalo Twp	646	655	1321	-9	48.90%	49.58%
Niles	1876	2320	4242	-444	44.22%	54.69%
Niles Twp	3250	2650	5969	600	54.45%	44.40%
Oronoko Twp	1802	1543	3402	259	52.97%	45.36%
Pipestone Twp	707	336	1057	371	66.89%	31.79%
Royalton Twp	1916	742	2670	1174	71.76%	27.79%
Sodus Twp	606	363	983	243	61.65%	36.93%
St Joseph	2364	1937	4357	427	54.26%	44.46%
St Joseph Twp	3398	2543	5990	855	56.73%	42.45%
Three Oaks Twp	643	574	1247	69	51.56%	46.03%
Watervliet	329	258	596	71	55.20%	43.29%
Watervliet Twp	748	449	1214	299	61.61%	36.99%
Weesaw Twp	551	363	937	188	58.80%	38.74%
Total	38209	33465	72494	4744	52.71%	46.16%
Cass County
Calvin Twp	405	454	871	-49	46.50%	52.12%
Dowagiac	712	1258	1981	-546	35.94%	63.50%
Howard Twp	1602	1266	2902	336	55.20%	43.63%
Jefferson Twp	665	487	1166	178	57.03%	41.77%
LaGrange Twp	614	827	1452	-213	42.29%	56.96%
Marcellus Twp	511	484	1008	27	50.69%	48.02%
Mason Twp	685	371	1066	314	64.26%	34.80%
Milton Twp	1047	502	1565	545	66.90%	32.08%
Newberg Twp	395	313	717	82	55.09%	43.65%
Ontwa Twp	1862	1010	2900	852	64.21%	34.83%
Penn Twp	537	351	897	186	59.87%	39.13%
Pokagon Twp	515	426	956	89	53.87%	44.56%
Porter Twp	1262	584	1863	678	67.74%	31.35%
Silver Creek Twp	908	562	1488	346	61.02%	37.77%
Volinia Twp	314	192	513	122	61.21%	37.43%
Wayne Twp	625	504	1145	121	54.59%	44.02%
Total	12659	9591	22490	3068	56.29%	42.65%
Kalamazoo County
Alamo Twp	1271	897	2185	374	58.17%	41.05%
Brady Twp	1392	945	2364	447	58.88%	39.97%
Charleston Twp	575	441	1039	134	55.34%	42.44%
Climax Twp	736	490	1235	246	59.60%	39.68%
Comstock Twp	3622	3993	7708	-371	46.99%	51.80%
Cooper Twp	2735	2608	5409	127	50.56%	48.22%
Galesburg	307	365	682	-58	45.01%	53.52%
Kalamazoo	7280	21942	29671	-14662	24.54%	73.95%
Kalamazoo Twp	3469	6946	10547	-3477	32.89%	65.86%
Oshtemo Twp	4600	6252	10959	-1652	41.97%	57.05%
Parchment	369	534	912	-165	40.46%	58.55%
Pavilion Twp	1589	1358	2980	231	53.32%	45.57%
Portage	11918	12966	25178	-1048	47.33%	51.50%
Prairie Ronde Twp	824	458	1289	366	63.93%	35.53%
Richland Twp	2462	1898	4406	564	55.88%	43.08%
Ross Twp	1747	1251	3016	496	57.92%	41.48%
Schoolcraft Twp	2299	1877	4230	422	54.35%	44.37%
Texas Twp	5070	3616	8753	1454	57.92%	41.31%
Wakeshima Twp	397	214	615	183	64.55%	34.80%
Total	52662	69051	123178	-16389	42.75%	56.06%
St Joseph County
Burr Oak Twp	568	417	995	151	57.09%	41.91%
Colon Twp	685	544	1243	141	55.11%	43.77%
Constantine Twp	862	658	1535	204	56.16%	42.87%
Fabius Twp	946	682	1644	264	57.54%	41.48%
Fawn River Twp	393	242	642	151	61.21%	37.69%
Florence Twp	329	188	524	141	62.79%	35.88%
Flowerfield Twp	393	315	715	78	54.97%	44.06%
Leonidias Twp	291	160	465	131	62.58%	34.41%
Lockport Twp	875	824	1717	51	50.96%	47.99%
Mendon Twp	641	608	1263	33	50.75%	48.14%
Mottville Twp	334	229	586	105	57.00%	39.08%
Nottawa Twp	791	603	1403	188	56.38%	42.98%
Park Twp	702	534	1251	168	56.12%	42.69%
Sherman Twp	1015	534	1559	481	65.11%	34.25%
Sturgis	1746	1304	3085	442	56.60%	42.27%
Sturgis Twp	487	298	795	189	61.26%	37.48%
Three Rivers	986	1443	2470	-457	39.92%	58.42%
White Pigeon Twp	934	529	1469	405	63.58%	36.01%
Total	12978	10112	23361	2866	55.55%	43.29%
Van Buren County
Almena Twp	1391	1291	2712	100	51.29%	47.60%
Antwerp Twp	2846	2892	5805	-46	49.03%	49.82%
Arlington Twp	437	380	830	57	52.65%	45.78%
Bangor	227	373	605	-146	37.52%	61.65%
Bangor Twp	431	334	774	97	55.68%	43.15%
Bloomingdale Twp	644	612	1270	32	50.71%	48.19%
Columbia Twp	492	486	989	6	49.75%	49.14%
Covert Twp	258	714	980	-456	26.33%	72.86%
Decatur Twp	675	769	1465	-94	46.08%	52.49%
Geneva Twp	664	731	1409	-67	47.13%	51.88%
Gobles	176	143	332	33	53.01%	43.07%
Hamilton Twp	328	325	660	3	49.70%	49.24%
Hartford	362	362	733	0	49.39%	49.39%
Hartford Twp	628	417	1060	211	59.25%	39.34%
Keeler Twp	558	392	970	166	57.53%	40.41%
Lawrence Twp	699	583	1299	116	53.81%	44.88%
Paw Paw Twp	1384	1528	2947	-144	46.96%	51.85%
Pine Grove Twp	773	613	1411	160	54.78%	43.44%
Porter Twp	689	613	1321	76	52.16%	46.40%
South Haven	1060	1328	2403	-268	44.11%	55.26%
South Haven Twp	861	876	1760	-15	48.92%	49.77%
Waverly Twp	558	528	1102	30	50.64%	47.91%
Total	16141	16290	32837	-149	49.15%	49.61%
Total All	163437	159024	326346	4413	50.08%	48.73%