Sunday, July 03, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 1 (SD-01)

I last updated State Senate districts back in 2005-2006. With population shifts, plenty of districts are moved. Wayne County's population losses, cause an entire district to disappear. There were 8 districts in Wayne County. Now there's 7. All of the Wayne County districts are only in Wayne County as well. The old maps had five Voting Rights Act black majority disricts, one white democrat district, and two swing districts. The new map still has five black majority districts, although they are not by the same margin. It also has one white democrat leaning district, and one republican leaning district.

I'm going to use abbreviations of SD-01 and HD-01 for State Senate and State House districts. For this district, it is SD-01.

State Senate - District 1

Current Rep – Coleman Young Jr? (D-Detroit)

2010 Results - Old District
Coleman Young - 40,122
Dakeisha Harwick - 2,895

Presidential results:
Well over 80% for both Kerry and Obama.

The old first district was completely in Detroit. With the population loss, the districts have to expand. This district now picks up a lot of Downriver, including River Rouge, Ecorse, Wyandotte, Riverview, Woodhaven, Riverview, Grosse Ile, Gibralter, and a portion of Brownstown Twp (which is split into several areas as parts were incorporated). I don't think downriver will be happy with this.

The district is slightly over 50% black (voting age population). That makes it safe for democrats, and the winner will likely be a Detroit Democrat. However, it's not a certainty. I expect a pretty tough primary here, IF Coleman Young is the incumbent in this district. Downriver will vote for Detroit democrats unless they are viewed as racist or crooked. Detroit democrats do best downriver when their reps are lower profile or less controversial. Hansen Clarke won downriver. Carolyn Kilpatrick lost there big. John Conyers lost there big. I don't hear a lot of hype about Clarke from either a positive or negative aspect outside of his votes. Coleman Young, rightly or wrongly, will be judged by a lot of people due to his name. That's a double edged sword. It works in the city. It'll bomb outside the city with any white person over 35, and there's a lot of them downriver. If there's a 3-4 way split primary, someone downriver could win, just because of the name "Coleman Young."

Overall, the primary will be the big election here.

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