Sunday, November 06, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 13 (HD-13)

State House - District 13
Current Rep – Andrew Kandrevas (D-Southgate)

Declared Candidates:
Dem - Andrew Kandrevas (D-Southgate)
Rep - Tony Amorose (R-Dearborn Heights)

2010 Results - Old District (13th)
Andrew Kandrevas - 14,338
Cynthia Kallgren - 12,130

5-25-2012 - No primary here in Downriver. This will be interesting to see if any 2010 trend was an aberration here or something to watch in the future. I think Kandrevas is still favored, but Allen Park isn't quite as solid as other parts of upper Downriver.

The old district was much more competitive in 2010 than I expected. I consider it an aberration until proven otherwise as all of those areas voted for John Kerry, Gore, and Obama. The old district covered Southgate, Trenton, Riverview, and Wyandotte. Trenton and Riverview can be competitive. Wyandotte is on rare occasions. Southgate is solidly democrat.

In 2010, Kandrevas won Southgate by 1400, Wyandotte by 900, and Riverview by about 120. He lost Trenton (less of a surprise in a bad democrat year) by 200.

This new district gives Kandrevas a slightly more difficult district. It drops everything except Southgate and picks up much of Dearborn Heights, and all of Allen Park. Allen Park is competitive at times. Dearborn Heights usually isn't. The district as a whole is approximately 58% for Obama according to the Dave's Redistricting software. I can't get exacts because of the Dearborn Heights split. Allen Park went 52% for Kerry, and Southgate 59%. I don't expect it to be that competitive very often because Southgate is a very strong base for the dems. 2006, 2008, and 2010 showed us though not to take anything district for granted - in either party.

No comments: