Congressional District 7 - Updated 2014 (MI-07)

Update 2014:
Walberg has a primary, and then faces Pam Byrnes. Byrnes is a state rep and will be stronger than most of Walberg's opponents (outside of Schauer), but much of Byrnes district was in the Dingell district instead. This will be a tough defense however.

MI-07 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Tim Walberg  (R-Tipton)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 6 (2006-2008, 2010-2014)

Challengers –Douglas Radcliffe North (R-Jackson), Pam Byrnes (D-Chelsea)

2012:

Tim Walberg – 169688 – 53.34%

Kurt Richard Haskell  – 136849 – 43.02%

32819 vote difference

Romney – 169400 votes – 50.92%

Obama – 159272 votes – 47.88%

10128 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 165901 votes – 47.38%

Obama – 178005 votes – 50.84%

-12104 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 183990 votes – 54.33%

Kerry –151022 votes – 44.60%

32968 vote difference

This district is a swing district. Most of the counties here are competitive, with Branch and Hillsdale Counties being GOP strongholds, although smaller counties. Jackson and Lenawee are competitive, although go R more than D. Eaton County has been trending D for awhile. Washtenaw County outside Ann Arbor is competitive. Monroe County is a swing county from top to bottom with a labor democrat history but will vote for people in both parties.

Tim Walberg is no stranger to tough elections. This may have been his easiest in a long time. He had tough elections as a state rep in Lenawee County. He had a tough open seat (after he beat the incumbent RINO Joe Schwarz) in the 2006 primary. He narrowly lost to Mark Schauer in 2008. He beat Schauer in 2010. He had an easier defense than expected in 2012 when stronger candidates passed on the race. Calhoun County going to the 3^rd district helps Walberg immensely as he’s strongly disliked there for defeating Schwarz. He still has Eaton and parts of Washtenaw, which usually don’t vote for him although it did in 2012. Monroe’s tough, but a better matchup for him than Calhoun County. Walberg lost it narrowly, but 50/50 isn’t bad there. Walberg wins by usually running with the ticket in Jackson County, and ahead of the ticket in Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5 and 6.  I also posted the 08 and 04 maps as well. I may be off a little with Monroe County’s township borders.

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012

2008

 

2004

Eaton County has been trouble on the horizon for a long time. It’s mostly part of the Lansing area down I-496/I-96/I-69 and has a lot of state workers between commuters and the number of offices also in Eaton County. It is more to the left than Clinton County (4^th District) but less so than Ingham County (8^th). It’s been treading D for awhile. Bush narrowly won it twice, but Granholm also won it twice as did Obama. Walberg struggles here as well as state workers don’t like him, nor how he defeating their advocate Joe Schwarz. In 2012, the dems took the state rep spot in a mild upset.   Eaton County (unlike urban/suburban areas of neighboring Ingham County) does have a bit of a social conservative streak (especially on guns) with Rick Jones and Sue Tabor running well there, but it doesn’t like fiscal libertarianism at all. The ideal candidate for this county might be a pro-gun version of Chris Smith.

Eaton County still has some staunchly R areas. The swing areas we need to win back are Charlotte, Eaton Rapids, Potterville, and Windsor Twp, all with a lot of Lansing commuters. Delta Township is probably gone – which makes it tough as it is almost 1/3 of the county. Bush won it twice with less than 50%. I was surprised he won it even back then. Lansing is emptying out to there. Grand Ledge next to Delta went dem again after Bush won it twice. The portion of Lansing in this district is luckily not large as this portion is a black majority and one of the most two democrat parts of the city (SW). Romney slowed the bleeding in this county, but we need to stop it.

SE of Eaton County is Jackson County. It’s a competitive county that goes R more than D, but is almost never won by a large margin. Obama took it in 2008 narrowly, but Romney won it, as did Bush twice. Bush 04 was one of the few times the county broke 55%. It has a couple of swing areas, a dem stronghold in the City of Jackson, and some strong Republican areas like Sandstone Twp and Spring Arbor (home of Spring Arbor University, a Free Methodist School).  Summit Twp is a key base area. It had as many votes as Jackson itself and a big margin there is needed. In 2004, it outvoted Jackson alone. In 2008, it couldn’t  outvote the swing areas of  Blackman Twp and Leoni Twp combined. Three key swing areas are. Blackman Twp, Leoni Twp, and Waterloo. The first two townships border Jackson. Blackman Twp was the home of the former infamous Jackson State Penitentiary which closed in 2007. Waterloo is a rural area in the Northeast Corner of the County near the Washtenaw, Livingston, and Ingham county lines.

East of Jackson is Washtenaw County. The county as a hole is a democrat stronghold, but the part in this district is competitive, although the Ann Arbor influence has spread. Bush won it with 53%, but Obama won it with 52% and Romney won it by 246 votes. Most of the heavy democrat parts are in the Dingell district. The big problem is Scio Township. Walberg has ½ of it. Luckily, most of the real bad parts of it were removed and given to Dingell. What alarmed me is that the most democrat parts he has are in the SW part of the Township, not Dexter (the village) as I expected.  In the tradeoff for Scio Twp, Walberg gets Augusta Township instead in the SE corner south of Ypsi. Augusta Twp is also democrat with Ypsi influence, but not to the same degree as Scio Twp’s eastern side. The other areas R’s failed to win the last three times are Chelsea and Milan. Bush tied in the Washtenaw portion of Milan in 04. It’s labor friendly. Chelsea has been dem the last four presidential elections (2000 it was mostly part of Sylvan Twp which went for Gore but leans R with Chelsea now a City). Chelsea is famously known for being the home of actor Jeff Daniels who started the Purple Rose Theatre. It’s also close to Ann Arbor. Lyndon Twp and Dexter Twps (doesn’t cover the village) are two areas to watch with a recent blue tinge. Those are full of Ann Arbor commuters who want to live by the lakes (a lot of the Huron River and its lakes are parkland). That influences go up to one precinct in Livingston County’s Putnam Township (Hell, Patterson Lake) that went dem. Webster Township’s 50/50 due to part of it covering Dexter (village). Northfield Twp’s population is more to the northern part (most of Whitmore Lake) and is competitive every election. It’s got a bit of everything. Salem Twp is the big red spot. It’s more like South Lyon and Western Oakland County than it is the rest of Washtenaw County. In the southern part of the county, Manchester is fairly blue collar and competitive. The rest of it is strongly R with the exception of Milan and the City of Saline, but not like it used to be. The City of Saline was won by Bush twice, but is going dem fast with Ann Arbor influence.

In the SW is Branch County. It is old free soil country that’s stayed largely rural to this day. Most drive through it on I-69 between Marshall/Battle Creek and Fort Wayne in Indiana. It’s staunchly Republican overall, about 2-3% to the left of Hillsdale County next door to its East. Most of the townships are well over 60%, but Coldwater, Bronson, Sherwood Twp, and Union Twp are less R than the rest of the county. Only a McCain level of candidate loses those areas except arguably Coldwater, and I’m being generous there. This is a safe R county.

Hillsdale County (along with neighboring Lenawee) is a little off the beaten path. You don’t usually drive through there, except possibly along US-127 bordering Lenawee County or along Michigan Ave as an alternate to I-94. People that go to Hillsdale or Adrian go to there, not through there to someplace else. As such, outside of the small colleges (Hillsdale/Adrian), most people in this area have been here or from nearby areas for generations going back to the railroad days. Hillsdale’s a small base county that usually battles Allegan, Antrim, Livingston, and Sanilac Counties for the third highest GOP percentage each year. All five of these counties  are very different. Allegan (MI-6) has the Dutch areas. Antrim (MI-01) is Up North. Livingston and Sanilac I’ll get to later in the 8^th and 10^th districts. Hillsdale County is a mix of old free soil country (like Branch County) and the home of conservative Hillsdale College founded during the heart of the free soil push. It’s always been staunchly non-discriminatory, whether it is regarding Jim Crow segregation (refusing to play in Tangerine Bowl unless all its players could play) or affirmative action programs. It’s long battled the government, and still does so to this day, influencing the county. Tim Walberg runs ahead of the ticket here. The only spot Romney didn’t win was Reading where he tied. Only five places he didn’t get 60% of the vote. Ironically while the college gives Hillsdale County its reputation, it’s less R than much of the rest of the county.

Lenawee County a swing county that goes R more than D. It went to the wire in 2000 and 2012. Bush did very well here in 2004 and Obama did so in 2008. Adrian always goes D. Bush won everything else in 2004. The D’s flipped much of it in 08. Tecumseh is a key area here, as is Morenci, Madison Twp, Clinton Twp and Raisin. This is a tough area to win that prefers Santorums to Romneys. Keep in mind that this area voted for Tim Walberg multiple times, but also voted for the Spade brothers even in good GOP years.

Lastly, Monroe County is the quintessential swing county. It votes very similar to Macomb County, and a lot of what sells there sells in Monroe County as well. It has some influences from “Downriver” in the Detroit area, as well as Toledo which is borders. Labor is strong here with the commuters to either area. It’s voted for Bush, Gore, and Obama. State rep districts here are competitive every election as well. John Dingell represented this area for a long time. Walberg picked this county up instead of Calhoun and it’s a better matchup for him. It’s still a tough matchup, and we’ll find out how tough if the dems next strong candidate for the district is out of Monroe County.

Overall this district is still a swing district, and if one of the Spade’s run, we’ll have a real tough campaign here. Walberg caught a break in 2012, and had a big win in 2010 to avenge his loss against a tough opponent. This district is difficult for either party, and has a high number of independents. It’s a (mostly) social conservative district, but not friendly to big business and not necessarily republican. 

District 7	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Branch County
Algansee Twp	559	303	871	256	64.18%	34.79%
Batavia Twp	349	224	582	125	59.97%	38.49%
Bethel Twp	328	199	528	129	62.12%	37.69%
Bronson	352	309	676	43	52.07%	45.71%
Bronson Twp	353	228	588	125	60.03%	38.78%
Butler Twp	329	202	531	127	61.96%	38.04%
California Twp	136	69	207	67	65.70%	33.33%
Coldwater	2012	1826	3905	186	51.52%	46.76%
Coldwater Twp	1046	635	1692	411	61.82%	37.53%
Gilead Twp	184	115	299	69	61.54%	38.46%
Girard Twp	542	330	879	212	61.66%	37.54%
Kinderhook Twp	479	256	745	223	64.30%	34.36%
Matteson Twp	327	235	567	92	57.67%	41.45%
Noble Twp	153	59	214	94	71.50%	27.57%
Ovid Twp	828	469	1309	359	63.25%	35.83%
Quincy Twp	998	615	1635	383	61.04%	37.61%
Sherwood Twp	446	377	829	69	53.80%	45.48%
Union Twp	614	462	1090	152	56.33%	42.39%
Total	10035	6913	17147	3122	58.52%	40.32%
Eaton County
Bellevue Twp	897	541	1464	356	61.27%	36.95%
Benton Twp	820	661	1495	159	54.85%	44.21%
Brookfield Twp	418	294	723	124	57.81%	40.66%
Carmel Twp	848	637	1509	211	56.20%	42.21%
Charlotte	1789	1886	3729	-97	47.98%	50.58%
Chester Twp	550	389	970	161	56.70%	40.10%
Delta Twp	7785	9995	17967	-2210	43.33%	55.63%
Eaton Rapids	1030	1071	2116	-41	48.68%	50.61%
Eaton Rapids Twp	1173	962	2166	211	54.16%	44.41%
Eaton Twp	1244	1014	2284	230	54.47%	44.40%
Grand Ledge	1804	2138	3984	-334	45.28%	53.66%
Hamlin Twp	866	814	1717	52	50.44%	47.41%
Kalamo Twp	473	356	852	117	55.52%	41.78%
Lansing (part)	212	1609	1830	-1397	11.58%	87.92%
Olivet	219	231	452	-12	48.45%	51.11%
Oneida Twp	1220	1050	2291	170	53.25%	45.83%
Potterville	506	566	1082	-60	46.77%	52.31%
Roxand Twp	527	379	921	148	57.22%	41.15%
Sunfield Twp	599	411	1022	188	58.61%	40.22%
Vermontville Twp	489	391	893	98	54.76%	43.78%
Walton Twp	645	431	1092	214	59.07%	39.47%
Windsor Twp	2083	2087	4229	-4	49.26%	49.35%
Total	26197	27913	54788	-1716	47.82%	50.95%
Hillsdale County
Adams Twp	754	393	1166	361	64.67%	33.70%
Allen Twp	436	253	701	183	62.20%	36.09%
Amboy Twp	348	175	530	173	65.66%	33.02%
Cambria twp	700	374	1084	326	64.58%	34.50%
Camden Twp	409	188	609	221	67.16%	30.87%
Fayette Twp	852	507	1381	345	61.69%	36.71%
Hillsdale	1485	1036	2552	449	58.19%	40.60%
Hillsdale Twp	693	344	1052	349	65.87%	32.70%
Jefferson Twp	758	502	1274	256	59.50%	39.40%
Litchfield	283	220	513	63	55.17%	42.88%
Litchfield Twp	304	148	456	156	66.67%	32.46%
Moscow Twp	375	234	615	141	60.98%	38.05%
Pittsford Twp	508	266	784	242	64.80%	33.93%
Ransom Twp	243	113	366	130	66.39%	30.87%
Reading	170	170	349	0	48.71%	48.71%
Reading Twp	482	336	826	146	58.35%	40.68%
Scipio Twp	462	257	734	205	62.94%	35.01%
Somerset Twp	1372	1000	2393	372	57.33%	41.79%
Wheatland Twp	384	226	622	158	61.74%	36.33%
Woodbridge Twp	274	126	407	148	67.32%	30.96%
Wright Twp	435	238	686	197	63.41%	34.69%
Total	11727	7106	19100	4621	61.40%	37.20%
Jackson County
Blackman Twp	3717	3684	7472	33	49.75%	49.30%
Columbia Twp	2313	1739	4092	574	56.52%	42.50%
Concord Twp	822	485	1325	337	62.04%	36.60%
Grass Lake Twp	1784	1275	3088	509	57.77%	41.29%
Hanover Twp	1121	693	1829	428	61.29%	37.89%
Henrietta Twp	1174	993	2197	181	53.44%	45.20%
Jackson	4002	7579	11761	-3577	34.03%	64.44%
Leoni Twp	2995	3029	6118	-34	48.95%	49.51%
Liberty Twp	1077	617	1709	460	63.02%	36.10%
Napoleon Twp	1862	1462	3363	400	55.37%	43.47%
Norvell Twp	842	698	1560	144	53.97%	44.74%
Parma Twp	658	531	1208	127	54.47%	43.96%
Pulaski Twp	543	354	913	189	59.47%	38.77%
Rives Twp	1323	863	2206	460	59.97%	39.12%
Sandstone Twp	1275	689	1995	586	63.91%	34.54%
Spring Arbor Twp	2528	1246	3827	1282	66.06%	32.56%
Springport Twp	531	363	912	168	58.22%	39.80%
Summit Twp	6329	4781	11218	1548	56.42%	42.62%
Tompkins Twp	725	558	1302	167	55.68%	42.86%
Waterloo Twp	677	662	1351	15	50.11%	49.00%
Total	36298	32301	69446	3997	52.27%	46.51%
Lenawee County
Adrian	2579	4500	7169	-1921	35.97%	62.77%
Adrian Twp	1775	1489	3301	286	53.77%	45.11%
Blissfield Twp	1034	831	1880	203	55.00%	44.20%
Cambridge Twp	1702	1471	3224	231	52.79%	45.63%
Clinton Twp	955	888	1882	67	50.74%	47.18%
Deerfield Twp	389	321	720	68	54.03%	44.58%
Dover Twp	387	303	706	84	54.82%	42.92%
Fairfield Twp	439	367	813	72	54.00%	45.14%
Franklin Twp	886	714	1620	172	54.69%	44.07%
Hudson	438	394	855	44	51.23%	46.08%
Hudson Twp	403	337	746	66	54.02%	45.17%
Macon Twp	491	311	809	180	60.69%	38.44%
Madison Twp	1407	1463	2894	-56	48.62%	50.55%
Medina Twp	253	202	473	51	53.49%	42.71%
Morenci	370	453	840	-83	44.05%	53.93%
Ogden Twp	329	217	556	112	59.17%	39.03%
Palmyra Twp	546	489	1051	57	51.95%	46.53%
Raisin Twp	1824	1671	3534	153	51.61%	47.28%
Ridgeway Twp	432	329	770	103	56.10%	42.73%
Riga Twp	448	331	796	117	56.28%	41.58%
Rollin Twp	899	660	1580	239	56.90%	41.77%
Rome Twp	531	327	862	204	61.60%	37.94%
Seneca Twp	262	230	493	32	53.14%	46.65%
Tecumseh	2002	2304	4366	-302	45.85%	52.77%
Tecumseh Twp	684	443	1144	241	59.79%	38.72%
Woodstock Twp	886	731	1640	155	54.02%	44.57%
Total	22351	21776	44724	575	49.98%	48.69%
Monroe County
Ash Twp	1868	1663	3586	205	52.09%	46.37%
Bedford Twp	8359	8149	16654	210	50.19%	48.93%
Berlin Twp	2257	2217	4532	40	49.80%	48.92%
Dundee Twp	1681	1539	3258	142	51.60%	47.24%
Erie Twp	1008	1137	2177	-129	46.30%	52.23%
Exeter Twp	999	951	1972	48	50.66%	48.23%
Frenchtown Twp	3879	4458	8419	-579	46.07%	52.95%
Ida Twp	1474	1145	2646	329	55.71%	43.27%
La Salle Twp	1366	1171	2566	195	53.23%	45.64%
London Twp	644	732	1385	-88	46.50%	52.85%
Luna Pier	256	379	648	-123	39.51%	58.49%
Milan (part)	383	503	894	-120	42.84%	56.26%
Milan Twp	466	380	861	86	54.12%	44.13%
Monroe	3820	5124	9033	-1304	42.29%	56.73%
Monroe Twp	3031	3281	6380	-250	47.51%	51.43%
Petersburg	235	294	538	-59	43.68%	54.65%
Raisinville Twp	1699	1429	3160	270	53.77%	45.22%
Summerfield Twp	834	756	1613	78	51.70%	46.87%
Whiteford Twp	1334	1002	2360	332	56.53%	42.46%
Total	35593	36310	72682	-717	48.97%	49.96%
Washtenaw County (pt)
Augusta Twp	1571	1867	3481	-296	45.13%	53.63%
Bridgewater Twp	561	392	970	169	57.84%	40.41%
Chelsea	1308	1717	3054	-409	42.83%	56.22%
Dexter Twp	1882	1894	3805	-12	49.46%	49.78%
Freedom Twp	496	401	908	95	54.63%	44.16%
Lima Twp	1075	986	2084	89	51.58%	47.31%
Lodi Twp	2022	1675	3749	347	53.93%	44.68%
Lyndon Twp	785	837	1635	-52	48.01%	51.19%
Manchester Twp	1254	1213	2506	41	50.04%	48.40%
Milan (part)	835	1137	1998	-302	41.79%	56.91%
Northfield twp	2225	2095	4369	130	50.93%	47.95%
Salem Twp	2185	1389	3607	796	60.58%	38.51%
Saline	2371	2673	5119	-302	46.32%	52.22%
Saline Twp	592	473	1072	119	55.22%	44.12%
Scio Twp 1	798	1052	1861	-254	42.88%	56.53%
Scio Twp 2	397	421	832	-24	47.72%	50.60%
Scio Twp 5	327	665	1007	-338	32.47%	66.04%
Scio Twp 6	371	723	1099	-352	33.76%	65.79%
Sharion Twp	613	483	1107	130	55.37%	43.63%
Sylvan Twp	969	941	1930	28	50.21%	48.76%
Webster Twp	2181	2156	4375	25	49.85%	49.28%
York Twp	2381	1763	4200	618	56.69%	41.98%
Total	27199	26953	54768	246	49.66%	49.21%
Total All	169400	159272	332655	10128	50.92%	47.88%