Congressional District 2 - Updated 2014 (MI-02)

2014 Update - Dems are running Dean Vanderstelt, a sacrificial lamb UAW guy in this safe district.

MI-02 Update – 2013

Incumbent – Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Challenger - Dean Vanderstelt (D-Spring Lake)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.

The 2011 update Is here

The 2010 update is here

2012:

Bill Huizenga – 194653 – 61.16%

Willie German Jr. – 108973 – 34.23%

85860 vote difference

Romney – 186544 votes – 56.02%

Obama – 142771 votes – 42.87%

43773 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 176548 votes – 50.42%

Obama – 183693 votes – 47.95%

8664 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 202650 votes – 60.47%

Kerry – 129395 votes – 38.61%

73255 vote difference

The good news with MI-02 is some of the bleeding here has stopped from McCain’s absolute cratering here. The bad news is that Romney’s vote spread here is about 30,000 less than Bush’s. That’s better than 65,000 vote spread difference from McCain. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done here. West MI is growing more than East Michigan and it will take more than just the Dutch population here to win enough to win statewide. This district is safe. Ottawa County can almost carry the entire district on its own.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code.

70%+Dem – Black

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – White

The Southern Part of the District, you’ll see the major population centers and some big contrasts with Blue Muskegon and Red Ottawa Counties.

It masks a problem. Ottawa County is the most GOP county in Michigan by far. McCain won it by 32,500. Romney by 45,400. Bush by 56,600. It’s also treading blue – or more accurately, less red. In 2000, 14 municipalities would have been firebrick red for breaking the 70% barrier. 8 did in 2012. 3 broke 80% in 2012. 6 did in 2004. Everything bled between 2004 and 2008, and most had a partial but not full recovery in 2012. Bush had a 11,000 better vote spread in this county in 2012 than Romney did. More alarming are the changes in Grand Haven, Holland, and Allendale. I think the Chicago influence is hitting Grand Haven some. It went blue in 08 and 12, while Bush won it. Bush’s 3225 votes there was also 550 more than Romney and 600 more than McCain. Allendale is the home of Grand Valley State University, a very large college. It’s more to the right than most colleges, but it went from 77% Bush to 59.94% McCain and 69.39% Romney. Romney exceeded Bush’s vote total here, so that’s good news. Obama 12 got 600 (1200 to 1800) more votes than Kerry 04. Holland is the big concern and that’s due to the Mexican population. It went from 59% Bush to 45.44% McCain and 50.04% Romney. R’s lost 1000 votes there while D’s gained 1000 (and 2000 in 08). Holland Township is similar for the same reason although masked. It went from 72.41% to 57.60% to 62.15% R’s lost 600 votes while D’s gained 1650 (and 2500 in 08). That’s how Romney ran 5% behind 04 Bush (and 2000 Bush).

Muskegon County is the forgotten dem stronghold in this state. It’s the union HQ in West Michigan and the cities of Muskegon and Muskegon Heights have a large minority population. One scary aspect is that Romney had less raw votes in Muskegon, Montague, and Muskegon Heights than McCain. While the dems dropped more in Montague raising the percentage from 41.31% to 45.71%, Muskegon Heights stayed 96.43% Dem, and Muskegon went only down to 77.52% from 79.45%. Bush held the dems to 92.24% and 71.25% in the Heights and Muskegon itself.  The county outside of the two Muskegons leans blue, but Bush won it in 04. McCain was smashed both outcounty and in the city, and Romney lost it by a smaller amount. The good thing is that Romney cut McCain’s overall vote deficit by over 10,000 to 13552. Bush had it down to 8980. The good news is that Ottawa County can trump even a bad whooping in Muskegon.

There’s also a major bluing going on in two Kent County suburbs due to migration. Kentwood and Wyoming. Kentwood’s now 25% minority (15% black) and has gone from 58% Bush to 47.57% Romney (45.15% McCain). The 3880 vote spread is now a deficit. Bush had 13000 votes there in 04. Romney had 10600. Kerry had 9100. Obama 12 had 11500. Wyoming is also 25% minority, more Mexican than black.  was 60.18% Bush in 04 and 51.86 Romney (48.05% McCain) in 2012. Vote totals from 18500 to 15277 while Obama had 13800 compared to Kerry’s 11900. Grandville and Walker have some bleeding from 04 as well, but no more or less than anywhere else. 

Oceana County has a large Mexican population, but doesn’t impact it the same way as it does in Holland or Wyoming. Some of the bluest areas there are white. Colfax and Elbridge Twps are impacted with the percentage drops, but the overall percentage is about the same as Bush 04. Some areas moved to the right and some left, but it evened out. Alarmingly (whether it be due to population loss or other factors), Romney had less votes than McCain in Colfax Twp, Hart, and Shelby Twp (not to be confused with Macomb County’s Shelby Twp). Despite that, Hart and Shelby Twps flipped back to the R’s due to the dems losing more votes. The dems lost 220 votes in Shelby Twp and 90 votes in Hart.

Newaygo’s a safe R county usually in the upper 50’s overall, but had a few blue patches in it. Merrill Township has a sizable black population and keeps it consistently about 62% D.  The area around Hesperia (both Oceana and Newaygo) is dem as well along M-20. Romney had less votes than McCain in Barton Twp (despite 66%), Beaver Twp, Croton Twp (still flipped it and got it with 55%+),  Everett Twp (still flipped it), Home Twp, Lincoln Twp, Merrill Twp, Monroe Twp, Norwich Twp, and Wilcox Twp. Despite that, he improved McCain’s percentage in all of those areas. Raw votes matter more than percentage though.

Lake County is consistently dem around 52-55%. Much of it swings, but the Baldwin area townships (esp Webber Twp bordering Yates) and Yates Twp (81%) are hardcore dem. Idlewild (Yates Twp) was a planned resort community for blacks during segregation times. Baldwin is the nearest town as well so those areas influence the vote. Luckily for R’s, it’s too small to matter. Lake County overall has 5200-5300 voters compared to Newaygo’s 21000+ voters.

Finally Mason County is competitive, and largely not strongly blue nor red. Bush did quite well there and didn’t lose a single part of Mason County that was in the 2^nd District. McCain cratered there. Romney won it, but by ½ of the vote spread of Bush. Ludington has a bit of a likely Chicago resort influence. Hopefully this will rebound some with Obama out of office. We should be getting 55%+ here.

Overall this is a safe district due to one county’s domination. However, the key in these districts aren’t to win them. In a place like Ottawa County, anyone with an R by the name would win barring a shocker. The goal is to win big enough to give candidates a good chance at winning the state. This district needs to be 60%+ every year. 

MI-02	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Allegan County				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Holland 9-4	555	320	886	235	62.64%	36.12%
Holland 13-5	335	291	633	44	52.92%	45.97%
Total	890	611	1519	279	58.59%	40.22%
Kent County
Byron Twp4	1225	280	1512	945	81.02%	18.52%
Grandville	5638	2864	8584	2774	65.68%	33.36%
Kentwood	10639	11522	22367	-883	47.57%	51.51%
Walker	6911	4786	11828	2125	58.43%	40.46%
Wyoming	15277	13834	29457	1443	51.86%	46.96%
Total	39690	33286	73748	6404	53.82%	45.13%
Lake County
Chase Twp	316	198	517	118	61.12%	38.30%
Cherry Valley Twp	103	106	210	-3	49.05%	50.48%
Dover Twp	122	84	210	38	58.10%	40.00%
Eden Twp	107	114	223	-7	47.98%	51.12%
Elk twp	285	258	549	27	51.91%	46.99%
Ellsworth Twp	202	162	367	40	55.04%	44.14%
Lake Twp	231	192	429	39	53.85%	44.76%
Newkirk Twp	137	136	276	1	49.64%	49.28%
Peacock Twp	107	113	222	-6	48.20%	50.90%
Pinora Twp	182	138	327	44	55.66%	42.20%
Pleasant Plains Twp	262	373	640	-111	40.94%	58.28%
Sauble Twp	118	89	208	29	56.73%	42.79%
Sweetwater twp	69	62	131	7	52.67%	47.33%
Webber Twp	170	385	558	-215	30.47%	69.00%
Yates Twp	76	342	420	-266	18.10%	81.43%
Total	2487	2752	5287	-265	47.04%	52.05%
Mason County
Amber Twp	723	580	1320	143	54.77%	43.94%
Branch Twp	264	285	555	-21	47.57%	51.35%
Custer Twp	336	307	652	29	51.53%	47.09%
Eden Twp	121	152	277	-31	43.68%	54.87%
Hamlin Twp (2)	732	555	1303	177	56.18%	42.59%
Logan Twp	89	79	169	10	52.66%	46.75%
Ludington	1832	1914	3784	-82	48.41%	50.58%
Pere Marquette Twp	765	579	1357	186	56.37%	42.67%
Riverton Twp	353	257	616	96	57.31%	41.72%
Scottville	241	210	456	31	52.85%	46.05%
Summit Twp	317	238	563	79	56.31%	42.27%
Total	5773	5156	11052	617	52.23%	46.65%
Muskegon County
Blue Lake Twp	545	535	1091	10	49.95%	49.04%
Casnovia Twp	761	405	1176	356	64.71%	34.44%
Cedar Creek Twp	589	703	1310	-114	44.96%	53.66%
Dalton Twp	1844	2030	3910	-186	47.16%	51.92%
Egelston Twp	1423	2407	3889	-984	36.59%	61.89%
Fruitland Twp	1426	1484	2940	-58	48.50%	50.48%
Fruitport Twp	3548	3205	6838	343	51.89%	46.87%
Holton Twp	446	502	968	-56	46.07%	51.86%
Laketon Twp	1996	2185	4221	-189	47.29%	51.76%
Montague	580	662	1269	-82	45.71%	52.17%
Montague Twp	385	374	768	11	50.13%	48.70%
Moorland Twp	375	327	713	48	52.59%	45.86%
Muskegon	2874	10355	13358	-7481	21.52%	77.52%
Muskgegon Heights	122	3727	3865	-3605	3.16%	96.43%
Muskegon Twp	2762	4429	7281	-1667	37.93%	60.83%
North Muskegon	1267	1003	2285	264	55.45%	43.89%
Norton Shores	6170	6398	12706	-228	48.56%	50.35%
Ravenna Twp	840	479	1337	361	62.83%	35.83%
Roosevelt Park	852	1089	1958	-237	43.51%	55.62%
Sullivan twp	580	586	1182	-6	49.07%	49.58%
White River Twp	416	399	826	17	50.36%	48.31%
Whitehall	619	696	1344	-77	46.06%	51.79%
Whitehall Twp	464	456	928	8	50.00%	49.14%
Total	30884	44436	76163	-13552	40.55%	58.34%
Newaygo County
Ashland Twp	742	414	1171	328	63.36%	35.35%
Barton Twp	218	110	330	108	66.06%	33.33%
Beaver Twp	115	69	190	46	60.53%	36.32%
Big Prairie Twp	461	462	932	-1	49.46%	49.57%
Bridgton Twp	493	430	944	63	52.22%	45.55%
Brooks Twp	990	741	1759	249	56.28%	42.13%
Croton Twp	806	639	1460	167	55.21%	43.77%
Dayton Twp	696	404	1111	292	62.65%	36.36%
Denver Twp	373	414	800	-41	46.63%	51.75%
Ensley Twp	817	395	1232	422	66.31%	32.06%
Everett Twp	362	340	713	22	50.77%	47.69%
Fremont	1201	785	2016	416	59.57%	38.94%
Garfield Twp	673	396	1085	277	62.03%	36.50%
Goodwell Twp	127	91	219	36	57.99%	41.55%
Grant	211	115	329	96	64.13%	34.95%
Grant Twp	975	422	1415	553	68.90%	29.82%
Home Twp	70	32	103	38	67.96%	31.07%
Lilley Twp	220	187	410	33	53.66%	45.61%
Lincoln Twp	278	311	600	-33	46.33%	51.83%
Merrill Twp	102	183	291	-81	35.05%	62.89%
Monroe Twp	94	49	146	45	64.38%	33.56%
Newaygo	376	335	721	41	52.15%	46.46%
Norwich Twp	180	101	283	79	63.60%	35.69%
Sheridan Twp	796	458	1264	338	62.97%	36.23%
Sherman Twp	565	398	972	167	58.13%	40.95%
Troy Twp	55	74	131	-19	41.98%	56.49%
White Cloud	229	184	419	45	54.65%	43.91%
Wilcox Twp	232	189	432	43	53.70%	43.75%
Total	12457	8728	21478	3729	58.00%	40.64%
Oceana County
Benona Twp	506	338	849	168	59.60%	39.81%
Claybanks Twp	239	167	415	72	57.59%	40.24%
Colfax Twp	65	94	163	-29	39.88%	57.67%
Crystal Twp	114	136	256	-22	44.53%	53.13%
Elbridge Twp	235	157	402	78	58.46%	39.05%
Ferry Twp	256	258	526	-2	48.67%	49.05%
Golden Twp	598	397	1002	201	59.68%	39.62%
Grant Twp	588	514	1116	74	52.69%	46.06%
Greenwood Twp	234	198	436	36	53.67%	45.41%
Hart	320	318	646	2	49.54%	49.23%
Hart Twp	559	324	894	235	62.53%	36.24%
Leavitt Twp	168	128	299	40	56.19%	42.81%
Newfield Twp	459	528	998	-69	45.99%	52.91%
Otto Twp	165	146	313	19	52.72%	46.65%
Pentwater Twp	641	469	1117	172	57.39%	41.99%
Shelby Twp	810	658	1495	152	54.18%	44.01%
Weare Twp	282	235	523	47	53.92%	44.93%
Total	6239	5065	11450	1174	54.49%	44.24%
Ottawa County
Allendale Twp	4309	1844	6210	2465	69.39%	29.69%
Blendon Twp	3011	461	3510	2550	85.78%	13.13%
Chester Twp	700	337	1051	363	66.60%	32.06%
Coopersville	1222	724	1966	498	62.16%	36.83%
Crockery Twp	1140	840	2006	300	56.83%	41.87%
Ferrysburg	1000	767	1780	233	56.18%	43.09%
Georgetown Twp	20297	6466	27007	13831	75.15%	23.94%
Grand Haven	2686	2906	5664	-220	47.42%	51.31%
Grand Haven Twp	5027	3601	8701	1426	57.77%	41.39%
Holland	5286	5130	10564	156	50.04%	48.56%
Holland Twp	8732	5144	14049	3588	62.15%	36.61%
Hudsonville	3149	697	3898	2452	80.79%	17.88%
Jamestown Twp	3536	623	4197	2913	84.25%	14.84%
Olive Twp	1513	377	1913	1136	79.09%	19.71%
Park Twp	6722	3773	10590	2949	63.47%	35.63%
Polkton Twp	1019	334	1370	685	74.38%	24.38%
Port Sheldon Twp	1693	845	2564	848	66.03%	32.96%
Robinson Twp	1857	1084	2981	773	62.29%	36.36%
Spring Lake Twp	4844	3343	8285	1501	58.47%	40.35%
Tallmadge Twp	2826	1244	4157	1582	67.98%	29.93%
Wright Twp	1172	496	1688	676	69.43%	29.38%
Zeeland	2275	689	2998	1586	75.88%	22.98%
Zeeland Twp	4108	1012	5163	3096	79.57%	19.60%
Total	88124	42737	132312	45387	66.60%	32.30%
				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total All	186544	142771	333009	43773	56.02%	42.87%