Sunday, April 21, 2013

Congressional District 2 - Updated 2014 (MI-02)

2014 Update - Dems are running Dean Vanderstelt, a sacrificial lamb UAW guy in this safe district.



MI-02 Update – 2013
Incumbent – Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Challenger - Dean Vanderstelt (D-Spring Lake)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.
The 2011 update Is here

The 2010 update is here

2012:
Bill Huizenga – 194653 – 61.16%
Willie German Jr. – 108973 – 34.23%
85860 vote difference

Romney – 186544 votes – 56.02%
Obama – 142771 votes – 42.87%
43773 vote difference.

2008:
McCain – 176548 votes – 50.42%
Obama – 183693 votes – 47.95%
8664 vote difference

2004:
Bush – 202650 votes – 60.47%
Kerry – 129395 votes – 38.61%
73255 vote difference

The good news with MI-02 is some of the bleeding here has stopped from McCain’s absolute cratering here. The bad news is that Romney’s vote spread here is about 30,000 less than Bush’s. That’s better than 65,000 vote spread difference from McCain. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done here. West MI is growing more than East Michigan and it will take more than just the Dutch population here to win enough to win statewide. This district is safe. Ottawa County can almost carry the entire district on its own.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code.
70%+Dem – Black
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – White

MI-02A

MI-02B

MI-02c

The Southern Part of the District, you’ll see the major population centers and some big contrasts with Blue Muskegon and Red Ottawa Counties.

It masks a problem. Ottawa County is the most GOP county in Michigan by far. McCain won it by 32,500. Romney by 45,400. Bush by 56,600. It’s also treading blue – or more accurately, less red. In 2000, 14 municipalities would have been firebrick red for breaking the 70% barrier. 8 did in 2012. 3 broke 80% in 2012. 6 did in 2004. Everything bled between 2004 and 2008, and most had a partial but not full recovery in 2012. Bush had a 11,000 better vote spread in this county in 2012 than Romney did. More alarming are the changes in Grand Haven, Holland, and Allendale. I think the Chicago influence is hitting Grand Haven some. It went blue in 08 and 12, while Bush won it. Bush’s 3225 votes there was also 550 more than Romney and 600 more than McCain. Allendale is the home of Grand Valley State University, a very large college. It’s more to the right than most colleges, but it went from 77% Bush to 59.94% McCain and 69.39% Romney. Romney exceeded Bush’s vote total here, so that’s good news. Obama 12 got 600 (1200 to 1800) more votes than Kerry 04. Holland is the big concern and that’s due to the Mexican population. It went from 59% Bush to 45.44% McCain and 50.04% Romney. R’s lost 1000 votes there while D’s gained 1000 (and 2000 in 08). Holland Township is similar for the same reason although masked. It went from 72.41% to 57.60% to 62.15% R’s lost 600 votes while D’s gained 1650 (and 2500 in 08). That’s how Romney ran 5% behind 04 Bush (and 2000 Bush).

Muskegon County is the forgotten dem stronghold in this state. It’s the union HQ in West Michigan and the cities of Muskegon and Muskegon Heights have a large minority population. One scary aspect is that Romney had less raw votes in Muskegon, Montague, and Muskegon Heights than McCain. While the dems dropped more in Montague raising the percentage from 41.31% to 45.71%, Muskegon Heights stayed 96.43% Dem, and Muskegon went only down to 77.52% from 79.45%. Bush held the dems to 92.24% and 71.25% in the Heights and Muskegon itself.  The county outside of the two Muskegons leans blue, but Bush won it in 04. McCain was smashed both outcounty and in the city, and Romney lost it by a smaller amount. The good thing is that Romney cut McCain’s overall vote deficit by over 10,000 to 13552. Bush had it down to 8980. The good news is that Ottawa County can trump even a bad whooping in Muskegon.

There’s also a major bluing going on in two Kent County suburbs due to migration. Kentwood and Wyoming. Kentwood’s now 25% minority (15% black) and has gone from 58% Bush to 47.57% Romney (45.15% McCain). The 3880 vote spread is now a deficit. Bush had 13000 votes there in 04. Romney had 10600. Kerry had 9100. Obama 12 had 11500. Wyoming is also 25% minority, more Mexican than black.  was 60.18% Bush in 04 and 51.86 Romney (48.05% McCain) in 2012. Vote totals from 18500 to 15277 while Obama had 13800 compared to Kerry’s 11900. Grandville and Walker have some bleeding from 04 as well, but no more or less than anywhere else. 

Oceana County has a large Mexican population, but doesn’t impact it the same way as it does in Holland or Wyoming. Some of the bluest areas there are white. Colfax and Elbridge Twps are impacted with the percentage drops, but the overall percentage is about the same as Bush 04. Some areas moved to the right and some left, but it evened out. Alarmingly (whether it be due to population loss or other factors), Romney had less votes than McCain in Colfax Twp, Hart, and Shelby Twp (not to be confused with Macomb County’s Shelby Twp). Despite that, Hart and Shelby Twps flipped back to the R’s due to the dems losing more votes. The dems lost 220 votes in Shelby Twp and 90 votes in Hart.

Newaygo’s a safe R county usually in the upper 50’s overall, but had a few blue patches in it. Merrill Township has a sizable black population and keeps it consistently about 62% D.  The area around Hesperia (both Oceana and Newaygo) is dem as well along M-20. Romney had less votes than McCain in Barton Twp (despite 66%), Beaver Twp, Croton Twp (still flipped it and got it with 55%+),  Everett Twp (still flipped it), Home Twp, Lincoln Twp, Merrill Twp, Monroe Twp, Norwich Twp, and Wilcox Twp. Despite that, he improved McCain’s percentage in all of those areas. Raw votes matter more than percentage though.

Lake County is consistently dem around 52-55%. Much of it swings, but the Baldwin area townships (esp Webber Twp bordering Yates) and Yates Twp (81%) are hardcore dem. Idlewild (Yates Twp) was a planned resort community for blacks during segregation times. Baldwin is the nearest town as well so those areas influence the vote. Luckily for R’s, it’s too small to matter. Lake County overall has 5200-5300 voters compared to Newaygo’s 21000+ voters.

Finally Mason County is competitive, and largely not strongly blue nor red. Bush did quite well there and didn’t lose a single part of Mason County that was in the 2nd District. McCain cratered there. Romney won it, but by ½ of the vote spread of Bush. Ludington has a bit of a likely Chicago resort influence. Hopefully this will rebound some with Obama out of office. We should be getting 55%+ here.

Overall this is a safe district due to one county’s domination. However, the key in these districts aren’t to win them. In a place like Ottawa County, anyone with an R by the name would win barring a shocker. The goal is to win big enough to give candidates a good chance at winning the state. This district needs to be 60%+ every year. 


MI-02 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Allegan County


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Holland 9-4 555 320 886 235 62.64% 36.12%
Holland 13-5 335 291 633 44 52.92% 45.97%
Total 890 611 1519 279 58.59% 40.22%







Kent County





Byron Twp4 1225 280 1512 945 81.02% 18.52%
Grandville 5638 2864 8584 2774 65.68% 33.36%
Kentwood 10639 11522 22367 -883 47.57% 51.51%
Walker 6911 4786 11828 2125 58.43% 40.46%
Wyoming 15277 13834 29457 1443 51.86% 46.96%
Total 39690 33286 73748 6404 53.82% 45.13%







Lake County





Chase Twp 316 198 517 118 61.12% 38.30%
Cherry Valley Twp 103 106 210 -3 49.05% 50.48%
Dover Twp 122 84 210 38 58.10% 40.00%
Eden Twp 107 114 223 -7 47.98% 51.12%
Elk twp 285 258 549 27 51.91% 46.99%
Ellsworth Twp 202 162 367 40 55.04% 44.14%
Lake Twp 231 192 429 39 53.85% 44.76%
Newkirk Twp 137 136 276 1 49.64% 49.28%
Peacock Twp 107 113 222 -6 48.20% 50.90%
Pinora Twp 182 138 327 44 55.66% 42.20%
Pleasant Plains Twp 262 373 640 -111 40.94% 58.28%
Sauble Twp 118 89 208 29 56.73% 42.79%
Sweetwater twp 69 62 131 7 52.67% 47.33%
Webber Twp 170 385 558 -215 30.47% 69.00%
Yates Twp 76 342 420 -266 18.10% 81.43%
Total 2487 2752 5287 -265 47.04% 52.05%







Mason County





Amber Twp 723 580 1320 143 54.77% 43.94%
Branch Twp 264 285 555 -21 47.57% 51.35%
Custer Twp 336 307 652 29 51.53% 47.09%
Eden Twp 121 152 277 -31 43.68% 54.87%
Hamlin Twp (2) 732 555 1303 177 56.18% 42.59%
Logan Twp 89 79 169 10 52.66% 46.75%
Ludington 1832 1914 3784 -82 48.41% 50.58%
Pere Marquette Twp 765 579 1357 186 56.37% 42.67%
Riverton Twp 353 257 616 96 57.31% 41.72%
Scottville 241 210 456 31 52.85% 46.05%
Summit Twp 317 238 563 79 56.31% 42.27%
Total 5773 5156 11052 617 52.23% 46.65%







Muskegon County





Blue Lake Twp 545 535 1091 10 49.95% 49.04%
Casnovia Twp 761 405 1176 356 64.71% 34.44%
Cedar Creek Twp 589 703 1310 -114 44.96% 53.66%
Dalton Twp 1844 2030 3910 -186 47.16% 51.92%
Egelston Twp 1423 2407 3889 -984 36.59% 61.89%
Fruitland Twp 1426 1484 2940 -58 48.50% 50.48%
Fruitport Twp 3548 3205 6838 343 51.89% 46.87%
Holton Twp 446 502 968 -56 46.07% 51.86%
Laketon Twp 1996 2185 4221 -189 47.29% 51.76%
Montague 580 662 1269 -82 45.71% 52.17%
Montague Twp 385 374 768 11 50.13% 48.70%
Moorland Twp 375 327 713 48 52.59% 45.86%
Muskegon  2874 10355 13358 -7481 21.52% 77.52%
Muskgegon Heights 122 3727 3865 -3605 3.16% 96.43%
Muskegon Twp 2762 4429 7281 -1667 37.93% 60.83%
North Muskegon 1267 1003 2285 264 55.45% 43.89%
Norton Shores 6170 6398 12706 -228 48.56% 50.35%
Ravenna Twp 840 479 1337 361 62.83% 35.83%
Roosevelt Park 852 1089 1958 -237 43.51% 55.62%
Sullivan twp 580 586 1182 -6 49.07% 49.58%
White River Twp 416 399 826 17 50.36% 48.31%
Whitehall 619 696 1344 -77 46.06% 51.79%
Whitehall Twp 464 456 928 8 50.00% 49.14%
Total 30884 44436 76163 -13552 40.55% 58.34%







Newaygo County





Ashland Twp 742 414 1171 328 63.36% 35.35%
Barton Twp 218 110 330 108 66.06% 33.33%
Beaver Twp 115 69 190 46 60.53% 36.32%
Big Prairie Twp 461 462 932 -1 49.46% 49.57%
Bridgton Twp 493 430 944 63 52.22% 45.55%
Brooks Twp 990 741 1759 249 56.28% 42.13%
Croton Twp 806 639 1460 167 55.21% 43.77%
Dayton Twp 696 404 1111 292 62.65% 36.36%
Denver Twp 373 414 800 -41 46.63% 51.75%
Ensley Twp 817 395 1232 422 66.31% 32.06%
Everett Twp 362 340 713 22 50.77% 47.69%
Fremont 1201 785 2016 416 59.57% 38.94%
Garfield Twp 673 396 1085 277 62.03% 36.50%
Goodwell Twp 127 91 219 36 57.99% 41.55%
Grant 211 115 329 96 64.13% 34.95%
Grant Twp 975 422 1415 553 68.90% 29.82%
Home Twp 70 32 103 38 67.96% 31.07%
Lilley Twp 220 187 410 33 53.66% 45.61%
Lincoln Twp 278 311 600 -33 46.33% 51.83%
Merrill Twp 102 183 291 -81 35.05% 62.89%
Monroe Twp 94 49 146 45 64.38% 33.56%
Newaygo  376 335 721 41 52.15% 46.46%
Norwich Twp 180 101 283 79 63.60% 35.69%
Sheridan Twp 796 458 1264 338 62.97% 36.23%
Sherman Twp 565 398 972 167 58.13% 40.95%
Troy Twp 55 74 131 -19 41.98% 56.49%
White Cloud 229 184 419 45 54.65% 43.91%
Wilcox Twp 232 189 432 43 53.70% 43.75%
Total 12457 8728 21478 3729 58.00% 40.64%







Oceana County





Benona Twp 506 338 849 168 59.60% 39.81%
Claybanks Twp 239 167 415 72 57.59% 40.24%
Colfax Twp 65 94 163 -29 39.88% 57.67%
Crystal Twp 114 136 256 -22 44.53% 53.13%
Elbridge Twp 235 157 402 78 58.46% 39.05%
Ferry Twp 256 258 526 -2 48.67% 49.05%
Golden Twp 598 397 1002 201 59.68% 39.62%
Grant Twp 588 514 1116 74 52.69% 46.06%
Greenwood Twp 234 198 436 36 53.67% 45.41%
Hart  320 318 646 2 49.54% 49.23%
Hart Twp 559 324 894 235 62.53% 36.24%
Leavitt Twp 168 128 299 40 56.19% 42.81%
Newfield Twp 459 528 998 -69 45.99% 52.91%
Otto Twp 165 146 313 19 52.72% 46.65%
Pentwater Twp 641 469 1117 172 57.39% 41.99%
Shelby Twp 810 658 1495 152 54.18% 44.01%
Weare Twp 282 235 523 47 53.92% 44.93%
Total 6239 5065 11450 1174 54.49% 44.24%







Ottawa County





Allendale Twp 4309 1844 6210 2465 69.39% 29.69%
Blendon Twp 3011 461 3510 2550 85.78% 13.13%
Chester Twp 700 337 1051 363 66.60% 32.06%
Coopersville 1222 724 1966 498 62.16% 36.83%
Crockery Twp 1140 840 2006 300 56.83% 41.87%
Ferrysburg 1000 767 1780 233 56.18% 43.09%
Georgetown Twp 20297 6466 27007 13831 75.15% 23.94%
Grand Haven 2686 2906 5664 -220 47.42% 51.31%
Grand Haven Twp 5027 3601 8701 1426 57.77% 41.39%
Holland 5286 5130 10564 156 50.04% 48.56%
Holland Twp 8732 5144 14049 3588 62.15% 36.61%
Hudsonville 3149 697 3898 2452 80.79% 17.88%
Jamestown Twp 3536 623 4197 2913 84.25% 14.84%
Olive Twp 1513 377 1913 1136 79.09% 19.71%
Park Twp 6722 3773 10590 2949 63.47% 35.63%
Polkton Twp 1019 334 1370 685 74.38% 24.38%
Port Sheldon Twp 1693 845 2564 848 66.03% 32.96%
Robinson Twp 1857 1084 2981 773 62.29% 36.36%
Spring Lake Twp 4844 3343 8285 1501 58.47% 40.35%
Tallmadge Twp 2826 1244 4157 1582 67.98% 29.93%
Wright Twp 1172 496 1688 676 69.43% 29.38%
Zeeland 2275 689 2998 1586 75.88% 22.98%
Zeeland Twp 4108 1012 5163 3096 79.57% 19.60%
Total 88124 42737 132312 45387 66.60% 32.30%




0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total All 186544 142771 333009 43773 56.02% 42.87%


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