Thursday, May 23, 2013

Congressional District 13 (MI-13) - Updated

Update 2014 - Conyers is running again and facing Horace Sheffield in the primary. I'm not sure which one is worse here. Conyers is at least old and will be gone soon. At least people will have a choice here.



MI-13 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 50

Challengers –Jeff Gorman (R-Garden City), Horace Sheffield (D-Detroit)

2012:
John Conyers – 222535 – 82.15%
Harry Sawicki – 38380 – 14.17%
-184155 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney  – 14.12%
Obama – 85.33%

2008:  Approx
McCain – 14.44%
Obama – 84.589%

2004:  approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%
-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. District has about 55% of Detroit. Detroit is slightly over 50% of the district votes. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.  

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district is solely in Wayne County and covers a path between Inkster and Romulus to Ecorse and River Rouge through Detroit.


For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)
 MI-1312

2008

MI-1308
2004

MI-1304
Starting on the SW end, Romulus is the home of Detroit Metro Airport. It’s safe democrat and has been as long as I remember. It’s long had a large black population, but it’s close to 50/50 today.  It’s gone over 70% dem the last three elections, lately 78 and 79%. Obama did better here in 2012 than 2008. Next door is Wayne and Westland. Those are both heavily union, either UAW or Airport workers. They are both about 17% black, and in Westland’s case, heavily increasing. East of Westland is Inkster and Garden City. Garden City is still overwhelmingly white and union. It’s consistently 54-58% democrat. Inkster is and has been majority black. It’s gone from 88% dem in 04 to 94% dem today. Romney did worse than McCain in all of these areas.

East of there is Dearborn Heights. Most of it is in this district. Romney did worse than McCain here as well. It’s white, but less so than it was, especially as the Parkland and Warrendale section’s of Detroit are emptying out.  North of there is Redford. Redford Twp has gone from being competitive and “conservadem” as recently as the 90’s to 57% Kerry, 66% Obama 08, and 70% Obama 2012. Migration. A lot of the Irish and Polish there are moving out, and a lot of Detroiters are moving it. It was 28% black in 2010. It’ll be black majority by the end of the decade.

South of Detroit is Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge. All three have long been democrat strongholds due to both labor and minorities. Ecorse and River Rouge are majority minority with a black plurality. Obama did better in all three areas in 2012 than in 2008. Melvindale went 72% for Obama, and the others went about 90%.

While Conyers runs slightly behind the ticket, this seat is likely his until he retires or dies in office. He survived a credible primary opponent in Glenn Anderson despite Monica Conyers being behind bars. He’s safe. There’s a long bench for this district if it opens up for the dems.


MI-13 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Wayne County





Dearborn Hghts (most) 8386 15019 23645 -6633 35.47% 63.52%
DH24 -327 -463 -797 136 41.03% 58.09%
DH25 -301 -585 -895 284 33.63% 65.36%
dh 26 -301 -449 -763 148 39.45% 58.85%
dh 27 -286 -501 -796 215 35.93% 62.94%
dh 911ac -468 -542 -1021 74 45.84% 53.09%
Detroit (55% of city) 3310 154959 158721 -151649 2.09% 97.63%
Ecorse 327 3350 3702 -3023 8.83% 90.49%
Garden City 5283 7230 12672 -1947 41.69% 57.05%
Highland Park 43 3712 3759 -3669 1.14% 98.75%
Inkster 567 10625 11228 -10058 5.05% 94.63%
Melvindale 1028 2824 3884 -1796 26.47% 72.71%
Redford Twp 6905 16835 23969 -9930 28.81% 70.24%
River Rouge 320 2818 3156 -2498 10.14% 89.29%
Romulus 2233 8747 11061 -6514 20.19% 79.08%
Wayne   2477 5080 7630 -2603 32.46% 66.58%
Westland 12598 23840 36759 -11242 34.27% 64.85%
Total 41794 252499 295914 -210705 14.12% 85.33%


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