Wednesday, May 11, 2005

St Clair County

St. Clair County:
Location – Thumb
Population – 164,235 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 94.96% White, 2.10% Black, .50% American Indian, .40% Asian, .64% Some other Race, 1.38% Two or more races, 2.19% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Port Huron (pop 32,338)

St Clair County is a compeititve county in the Southeastern region of the Thumb. It is a socially conservative and populist county with a high number of “Reagan Democrats”. It voted for George W Bush and also David Bonior.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
10th District – Candice Miller (R)

State Senators:
25th District – Jud Gilbert (R)

State Representative:
32nd District – Dan Acciavatti (R) – Columbus, Ira, Kimball, and Wales Townships.

81st District – Phil Pavlov (R) – Berlin, Brockway, Casco, China, Clay, Clyde, Cottrellville, East China, Emmett, Grant, Greenwood, Kenockee, Lynn, Port Huron, Riley, and St Clair townships. Cities of Algonac, Marine City, Marysville, Memphis, St Clair, and Yale.

83rd District – John Espinoza (D) - Burtchville and Fort Gratiot townships. City of Port Huron.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 64.18%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 35.82%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 72.96%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 25.26%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 51.65%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 48.35%

Congress:
10th District – David Bonior (D) – 52.85%, Brian Palmer (R) – 45.00%

State Senators:
27th District – Dan DeGrow (R) – 63.53%, Dan Bewersdorff (D) – 36.47%

State Representative:
81st District – Lauren Hager (R) – 48.94%, Howard Heidermann (D) – 48.06%
82nd District – Jud Gilbert (R) – 53.52%, Pamela Wall (D) – 46.48%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 50.98%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 45.48%

Congress:
10th District – David Bonior (D) – 66.39%, Tom Turner (R) – 30.84%

State Representative:
81st District – Lauren Hager (R) – 53.07%, David Oppliger (D) – 46.93%
82nd District – Jud Gilbert (R) – 61.19%, Mike Delling (D) – 38.81%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 52.76%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 45.44%,
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 64.27%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 33.43%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 53.42%, Gary Peters (D) – 43.35%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 59.15%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 39.02%
Congress:
10th District – Candice Miller (R) – 62.96%, Carl Marlinga (D) – 35.88%

State Senate:
25th District – Jud Gilbert (R) – 53.58%, Thomas Hamilton (D)– 46.42%

State Representative:
32nd District – Daniel Acciavatti (R) – 54.09%, John Hertel (D) – 45.91%
81st District – Lauren Hager (R) – 66.46%, Colin Rumsey (D) – 33.54%
83rd District – Stephen Ehardt (R) – 53.91%, Edward Schultz (D) – 46.09%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
10th District – Candice Miller (R) – 67.73%, Rob Casey (D) – 30.22%

State Representative:
32nd District – Daniel Acciavatti (R) – 65.00%, Michael Landsiedel (D) – 32.62%
81st District – Phil Pavlov (R) – 56.43%, Mary Patterson (D) – 43.57%
83rd District – John Espinoza (D) – 55.39%, Paul Muxlow (R) – 44.61%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
ST CLAIR COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 33571 (49.00%), Gore – 33002 (48.17%)
2000 – Bush – 42740 (53.60%), Kerry – 36174 (45.36%)

Algonac City
2000 - 841 (47.38%), 883 (49.75%)
2004 – 1060 (50.94%), 1005 (48.29%)

Berlin Township
2000 - 815 (62.45%), 454 (34.79%)
2004 – 1074 (65.05%), 566 (34.28%)

Brockway Township
2000 - 467 (57.44%), 321 (39.48%)
2004 – 597 (62.45%), 351 (36.72%)

Burtchville Township
2000 - 789 (45.19%), 896 (51.32%)
2004 – 997 (50.69%), 946 (48.09%)

Casco Township
2000 - 995 (53.78%), 809 (43.73%)
2004 – 1209 (58.75%), 826 (40.14%)

China Township
2000 - 877 (52.20%), 752 (44.76%)
2004 – 1124 (57.55%), 809 (41.42%)

Clay Township
2000 - 2624 (54.51%), 2074 (43.08%)
2004 – 3134 (58.92%), 2137 (40.18%)

Clyde Township
2000 - 1365 (53.15%), 1137 (44.28%)
2004 – 1625 (57.36%), 1178 (41.58%)

Columbus Township
2000 - 1087 (59.37%), 689 (37.63%)
2004 – 1344 (61.37%), 827 (37.73%)

Cottrellville Township
2000 – 795 (52.41%), 691 (45.55%)
2004 – 994 (57.59%), 721 (41.77%)

East China Township
2000 - 916 (52.19%), 786 (44.79%)
2004 – 1163 (56.68%), 865 (42.15%)

Emmett Township
2000 - 555 (53.94%), 438 (42.57%)
2004 – 689 (56.06%), 527 (42.88%)

Fort Gratiot Township
2000 - 2518 (50.62%), 2319 (46.62%)
2004 – 3253 (54.36%), 2681 (44.80%)

Grant Township
2000 - 435 (56.79%), 305 (39.82%)
2004 – 578 (60.59%), 365 (38.26%)

Greenwood Township
2000 - 281 (46.60%), 298 (49.42%)
2004 – 392 (52.62%), 341 (45.77%)

Ira Township
2000 - 1154 (48.73%), 1149 (48.52%)
2004 – 1483 (55.05%), 1176 (43.65%)

Kenockee Township
2000 - 503 (50.00%), 473 (47.02%)
2004 – 699 (57.86%), 499 (41.31%)

Kimball Township
2000 - 1415 (42.80%), 1803 (54.54%)
2004 – 1960 (49.78%), 1938 (49.23%)

Lynn Township
2000 - 255 (52.90%), 204 (42.32%)
2004 – 343 (58.63%), 237 (40.51%)

Marine City
2000 - 801 (45.62%), 894 (50.91%)
2004 – 992 (48.18%), 1047 (50.85%)

Marysville City
2000 - 2245 (45.44%), 2573 (52.07%)
2004 – 3017 (52.59%), 2652 (46.23%)

Memphis City
2000 - 77 (50.33%), 74 (48.37%)
2004 – 104 (60.82%), 64 (37.43%)

Mussey Township
2000 - 816 (54.00%) 658 (43.55%)
2004 – 1036 (57.17%), 750 (41.39%)

Port Huron City
2000 - 4421 (39.70%), 6377 (57.27%)
2004 – 5360 (43.39%), 6857 (55.51%)

Port Huron Township
2000 - 1573 (43.48%), 1960 (54.17%)
2004 – 2198 (47.92%), 2342 (51.06%)

Riley Township
2000 - 699 (52.79%), 585 (44.18%)
2004 – 1008 (61.35%), 610 (37.13%)

St Clair City
2000 - 1426 (50.19%), 1331 (46.85%)
2004 – 1739 (55.19%), 1379 (43.76%)

St Clair Township
2000 - 1732 (57.22%), 1213 (40.07%)
2004 – 2228 (60.20%), 1444 (39.02%)

Wales Township
2000 - 696 (55.28%), 524 (41.62%)
2004 – 894 (57.49%), 647 (41.61%)

Yale City
2000 - 398 (52.44%), 329 (43.35%)
2004 – 476 (54.21%), 387 (44.08%)

St Clair County is competitive, but took a right turn in 2004. Bush flipped five municipalities and gained everywhere. St Clair County, like Macomb, has a large number of Reagan democrats. David Bonior won here the same year John Engler and George W Bush did.

Marine City and the two Port Huron municipalities are the only ones that went for both Gore and Kerry. Kimball Township tends to lean democrat, but went for Bush. Algonac, Burchville, Greenwood, and Marysville also flipped. Kimball and Marysville are near Port Huron. Algonac is in the SE corner of the county between Anchor Bay and the St Clair River. Burtchville in in the NE corner of the county bordering Sanillac County. Greenwood in the North Central portion of the county.

Redistricting significantly altered the districts. Bonior’s district lost Southeastern Macomb County and stretched from Northern Macomb to the thumb. It was an easy district for Candice Miller. The state representative districts carved up the county. Lapeer gained it’s own district, so Hager lost part of West/Central St Clair county to the N Macomb/S St Clair district which leans GOP – Dan Acciavatti defeated a Hertel in an open seat (55% Bush) which is not easy. Port Huron, Fort Gratiot and Burtchville in the Northeast part of the county went to the Sanillac County based district (54% GOP) which was won easily by Stephen Ehart. The rest was Hagar’s district, now held by Phil Pavlov. Kimball Township, Port Huron City, and Port Huron Township are all in three different districts, reducing the democrats' chances to win a district. All three districts can be competitive.

However, the democrats did get a big win in 2004 with John Espinoza’s open seat victory. The district went 54% for Bush, but the GOP campaign there was a disaster for many reasons. Espinoza was also a very strong candidate. This will probably be a targeted seat in 2006 for the state hourse. Phil Pavlov made a good save for Hager’s competitive open seat (56% Bush). Bush ran ahead of most Republicans here, so the districts are more competitive than they seem. St Clair County has a large number of independent voters and it should be a competitive county for years to come.

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