Monday, October 10, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 32 (SD-32)

State Senate - District 32
Current Rep – Open
(Dr. Roger Kahn termed out)

2010 Results - Old District (32nd)
Roger Kahn - 43,577
Debasish Mridha - 32,692

This district got more democrat. It dropped slightly GOP leaning Gratiot County and picked up parts of Genesee County. It was a swing district that leaned democrat at the top of the ticket, although it was held by Republicans Mike Goschka (famous for defeating then Speaker Lew Dodak) and Roger Kahn. The old district covered Saginaw and Gratiot counties. This one picked up parts of Genesee County. I think this was sacrificed to help Mike Green and Phil Pavlov without violating the APOL standards.

This district isn't impossible to win, but much tougher than it was. The best news is that there are some fairly strong republicans areas in this district, mainly in Frankenmuth, Fenton, Argentine and some of the NW Townships in Saginaw County. Some good news is that most of the white democrats here are more of the same blue collar folks in the 31st district.. Those voters are winnable in the right circumstances. The bad news is Saginaw, Buena Vista, Bridgeport, Montrose, and Carrollton. Those are almost always solid democrat no matter what (Kahn actually won Carrollton by 1 vote, but that's an aberration as its usually 60%). This is winnable with the right matchups. It will take another Mike Goschka or Roger Kahn type to win (Kahn's termed out). State Rep Ken Horn is rumored to be a possible candidate. He might be able to do it if he can pick up some of the "Gleason/Barcia" democrats against a Saginaw City democrat. It'll be a tough go, and on paper this seat favors the dems. Even John Kerry won here. This will be one of our toughest defenses.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Saginaw County 42225 60276 102501 -18051 41.19% 58.81% -17.61%
Genesee County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Argentine Twp 1845 1791 3636 54 50.74% 49.26% 1.49%
Clayton Twp 2035 2385 4420 -350 46.04% 53.96% -7.92%
Fenton Twp 4847 4111 8958 736 54.11% 45.89% 8.22%
Flushing 2327 2719 5046 -392 46.12% 53.88% -7.77%
Flushing Twp 2829 3351 6180 -522 45.78% 54.22% -8.45%
Gaines Twp 1790 2078 3868 -288 46.28% 53.72% -7.45%
Linden 1143 1082 2225 61 51.37% 48.63% 2.74%
Montrose  296 471 767 -175 38.59% 61.41% -22.82%
Montrose Twp 1201 1796 2997 -595 40.07% 59.93% -19.85%
Total 60538 80060 140598 -19522 43.06% 56.94% -13.88%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Saginaw County 47165 54887 102052 -7722 46.22% 53.78% -7.57%
Genesee County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Argentine Twp 1981 1483 3464 498 57.19% 42.81% 14.38%
Clayton Twp 2162 2134 4296 28 50.33% 49.67% 0.65%
Fenton Twp 5319 3570 8889 1749 59.84% 40.16% 19.68%
Flushing 2694 2457 5151 237 52.30% 47.70% 4.60%
Flushing Twp 3298 2849 6147 449 53.65% 46.35% 7.30%
Gaines Twp 1905 1930 3835 -25 49.67% 50.33% -0.65%
Linden 1250 853 2103 397 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Montrose  349 451 800 -102 43.63% 56.38% -12.75%
Montrose Twp 1365 1643 3008 -278 45.38% 54.62% -9.24%
Total 67488 72257 139745 -4769 48.29% 51.71% -3.41%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Saginaw County 36374 29369 65743 7005 55.33% 44.67% 10.66%
Genesee County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Argentine Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clayton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Fenton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Flushing

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Flushing Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gaines Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Linden

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Montrose 

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Montrose Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 36374 29369 65743 7005 55.33% 44.67% 10.66%

2 comments:

Conservative First said...

The new district is not more democrat. I initially made the same mistake myself.

The portion of Genesee in the new district gave 47.1% to McCain, while Gratiot gave 47.0% to McCain. The 2006 (Gov, AG, SOS) average for the Genesee portion was 54.4%, versus 55.7% in Gratiot.

However, the Genesee portion is significantly larger than Gratiot because the district had to add population. Overall the new district was 42.4% McCain and 50.7% 2006 average, while the old district was 41.5% McCain and 50.3% 2006 average.

It's still a tough district, but slightly better than before. This is one of the reasons I consider the new state senate map a work of genius.

Republican Michigander said...

Yes and no, although I didn't think top ticket was actually better.

However, my big worry are local candidates. Flushing is more of a ticket splitter area - against us for state senate types of races. Gratiot's probably better downticket for us. Flushing is going to be a big key in these races.

Ken Horn might be the right candidate for us here.

There's really not much though that could be done without severely risking Green or Robertson.