Current Rep – Open
(Dr. Roger Kahn termed out)
2010 Results - Old District (32nd)
Roger Kahn - 43,577
Debasish Mridha - 32,692
This district got more democrat. It dropped slightly GOP leaning Gratiot County and picked up parts of Genesee County. It was a swing district that leaned democrat at the top of the ticket, although it was held by Republicans Mike Goschka (famous for defeating then Speaker Lew Dodak) and Roger Kahn. The old district covered Saginaw and Gratiot counties. This one picked up parts of Genesee County. I think this was sacrificed to help Mike Green and Phil Pavlov without violating the APOL standards.
This district isn't impossible to win, but much tougher than it was. The best news is that there are some fairly strong republicans areas in this district, mainly in Frankenmuth, Fenton, Argentine and some of the NW Townships in Saginaw County. Some good news is that most of the white democrats here are more of the same blue collar folks in the 31st district.. Those voters are winnable in the right circumstances. The bad news is Saginaw, Buena Vista, Bridgeport, Montrose, and Carrollton. Those are almost always solid democrat no matter what (Kahn actually won Carrollton by 1 vote, but that's an aberration as its usually 60%). This is winnable with the right matchups. It will take another Mike Goschka or Roger Kahn type to win (Kahn's termed out). State Rep Ken Horn is rumored to be a possible candidate. He might be able to do it if he can pick up some of the "Gleason/Barcia" democrats against a Saginaw City democrat. It'll be a tough go, and on paper this seat favors the dems. Even John Kerry won here. This will be one of our toughest defenses.
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Saginaw County | 42225 | 60276 | 102501 | -18051 | 41.19% | 58.81% | -17.61% |
| Genesee County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Argentine Twp | 1845 | 1791 | 3636 | 54 | 50.74% | 49.26% | 1.49% |
| Clayton Twp | 2035 | 2385 | 4420 | -350 | 46.04% | 53.96% | -7.92% |
| Fenton Twp | 4847 | 4111 | 8958 | 736 | 54.11% | 45.89% | 8.22% |
| Flushing | 2327 | 2719 | 5046 | -392 | 46.12% | 53.88% | -7.77% |
| Flushing Twp | 2829 | 3351 | 6180 | -522 | 45.78% | 54.22% | -8.45% |
| Gaines Twp | 1790 | 2078 | 3868 | -288 | 46.28% | 53.72% | -7.45% |
| Linden | 1143 | 1082 | 2225 | 61 | 51.37% | 48.63% | 2.74% |
| Montrose | 296 | 471 | 767 | -175 | 38.59% | 61.41% | -22.82% |
| Montrose Twp | 1201 | 1796 | 2997 | -595 | 40.07% | 59.93% | -19.85% |
| Total | 60538 | 80060 | 140598 | -19522 | 43.06% | 56.94% | -13.88% |
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Saginaw County | 47165 | 54887 | 102052 | -7722 | 46.22% | 53.78% | -7.57% |
| Genesee County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Argentine Twp | 1981 | 1483 | 3464 | 498 | 57.19% | 42.81% | 14.38% |
| Clayton Twp | 2162 | 2134 | 4296 | 28 | 50.33% | 49.67% | 0.65% |
| Fenton Twp | 5319 | 3570 | 8889 | 1749 | 59.84% | 40.16% | 19.68% |
| Flushing | 2694 | 2457 | 5151 | 237 | 52.30% | 47.70% | 4.60% |
| Flushing Twp | 3298 | 2849 | 6147 | 449 | 53.65% | 46.35% | 7.30% |
| Gaines Twp | 1905 | 1930 | 3835 | -25 | 49.67% | 50.33% | -0.65% |
| Linden | 1250 | 853 | 2103 | 397 | 59.44% | 40.56% | 18.88% |
| Montrose | 349 | 451 | 800 | -102 | 43.63% | 56.38% | -12.75% |
| Montrose Twp | 1365 | 1643 | 3008 | -278 | 45.38% | 54.62% | -9.24% |
| Total | 67488 | 72257 | 139745 | -4769 | 48.29% | 51.71% | -3.41% |
| Last St Senate | GOP | Dem | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff |
| Saginaw County | 36374 | 29369 | 65743 | 7005 | 55.33% | 44.67% | 10.66% |
| Genesee County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Argentine Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Clayton Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Fenton Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Flushing | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Flushing Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Gaines Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Linden | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Montrose | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Montrose Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Total | 36374 | 29369 | 65743 | 7005 | 55.33% | 44.67% | 10.66% |
2 comments:
The new district is not more democrat. I initially made the same mistake myself.
The portion of Genesee in the new district gave 47.1% to McCain, while Gratiot gave 47.0% to McCain. The 2006 (Gov, AG, SOS) average for the Genesee portion was 54.4%, versus 55.7% in Gratiot.
However, the Genesee portion is significantly larger than Gratiot because the district had to add population. Overall the new district was 42.4% McCain and 50.7% 2006 average, while the old district was 41.5% McCain and 50.3% 2006 average.
It's still a tough district, but slightly better than before. This is one of the reasons I consider the new state senate map a work of genius.
Yes and no, although I didn't think top ticket was actually better.
However, my big worry are local candidates. Flushing is more of a ticket splitter area - against us for state senate types of races. Gratiot's probably better downticket for us. Flushing is going to be a big key in these races.
Ken Horn might be the right candidate for us here.
There's really not much though that could be done without severely risking Green or Robertson.
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