Saturday, August 20, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 25 (SD-25)

State Senate - District 25
Current Rep – Phil Pavlov (R-St Clair)

2010 Results - Old District (25th)
Phil Pavlov -53,342
John Nugent -26,393

This district leans GOP and even voted for McCain, but has been close in the past under previous incarnations. It drops solidly Republican Lapeer County to the 31st and Mike Green and picks up competitive Huron County and usually Republican Sanilac County from Green. It also picks up some Republican parts of northern Macomb County from Jack Brandenburg. Over 1/2 of the district is in St Clair County, which is a swing county that votes GOP more often than dem.

Phil Pavlov won this district in an open seat by a big margin, over 2-1 overall, and in St Clair County. The previous rep, Jud Gilbert, won big in 2002 and had a closer than expected race in the disaster year of 2006. Both GOP and Democrat state reps represented parts of this district. One of the state rep districts in this territory went from Mike Green (R) to Terry Brown (D) to Kurt Damrow (R). Another went from Steven Ehardt (R) to John Espinoza (D) to Paul Muxlow (R). Another went from Dan Acciavatti (R) to Jennifer Haase (D) to Andrea LaFontaine (R). Two, if not all three of those districts I'm pretty certain voted for McCain. Pavlov's won easily though, both for state rep, and state senate. This is a conservative district, but fiercely independent.

I think this district will likely be safe for Pavlov, but I'd keep an eye on this when it opens or if John Espinoza or Terry Brown run for it. That could make this a tough race and each of them have a lot of support in parts of the thumb. Haase could make a run as well, but she may have a geography disadvantage there being from Macomb County.

This one should be ours at least until it opens, but don't take it for granted.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 8434 8367 16801 67 50.20% 49.80% 0.40%
Sanilac County 10679 9047 19726 1632 54.14% 45.86% 8.27%
St Clair County 38356 40677 79033 -2321 48.53% 51.47% -2.94%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1604 1252 2856 352 56.16% 43.84% 12.32%
Memphis 227 154 381 73 59.58% 40.42% 19.16%
New Baltimore 3003 2971 5974 32 50.27% 49.73% 0.54%
Richmond  1454 1378 2832 76 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
Richmond Twp 1142 723 1865 419 61.23% 38.77% 22.47%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 64899 64569 129468 330 50.13% 49.87% 0.25%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 9671 7629 17300 2042 55.90% 44.10% 11.80%
Sanilac County 12632 7883 20515 4749 61.57% 38.43% 23.15%
St Clair County 42740 36174 78914 6566 54.16% 45.84% 8.32%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1797 1062 2859 735 62.85% 37.15% 25.71%
Memphis 227 170 397 57 57.18% 42.82% 14.36%
New Baltimore 3103 2440 5543 663 55.98% 44.02% 11.96%
Richmond  1610 1177 2787 433 57.77% 42.23% 15.54%
Richmond Twp 1156 674 1830 482 63.17% 36.83% 26.34%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 72936 57209 130145 15727 56.04% 43.96% 12.08%









GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sanilac County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
St Clair County 34791 16246 51037 18545 68.17% 31.83% 36.34%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Memphis

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
New Baltimore

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Richmond 

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Richmond Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 34791 16246 51037 18545 68.17% 31.83% 36.34%

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