Current Rep – Phil Pavlov (R-St Clair)
2010 Results - Old District (25th)
Phil Pavlov -53,342
John Nugent -26,393
This district leans GOP and even voted for McCain, but has been close in the past under previous incarnations. It drops solidly Republican Lapeer County to the 31st and Mike Green and picks up competitive Huron County and usually Republican Sanilac County from Green. It also picks up some Republican parts of northern Macomb County from Jack Brandenburg. Over 1/2 of the district is in St Clair County, which is a swing county that votes GOP more often than dem.
Phil Pavlov won this district in an open seat by a big margin, over 2-1 overall, and in St Clair County. The previous rep, Jud Gilbert, won big in 2002 and had a closer than expected race in the disaster year of 2006. Both GOP and Democrat state reps represented parts of this district. One of the state rep districts in this territory went from Mike Green (R) to Terry Brown (D) to Kurt Damrow (R). Another went from Steven Ehardt (R) to John Espinoza (D) to Paul Muxlow (R). Another went from Dan Acciavatti (R) to Jennifer Haase (D) to Andrea LaFontaine (R). Two, if not all three of those districts I'm pretty certain voted for McCain. Pavlov's won easily though, both for state rep, and state senate. This is a conservative district, but fiercely independent.
I think this district will likely be safe for Pavlov, but I'd keep an eye on this when it opens or if John Espinoza or Terry Brown run for it. That could make this a tough race and each of them have a lot of support in parts of the thumb. Haase could make a run as well, but she may have a geography disadvantage there being from Macomb County.
This one should be ours at least until it opens, but don't take it for granted.
|St Clair County||38356||40677||79033||-2321||48.53%||51.47%||-2.94%|
|St Clair County||42740||36174||78914||6566||54.16%||45.84%||8.32%|
|St Clair County||34791||16246||51037||18545||68.17%||31.83%||36.34%|