State Senate Redistricting - District 25 (SD-25)

State Senate - District 25
Current Rep – Phil Pavlov (R-St Clair)

2010 Results - Old District (25th)
Phil Pavlov -53,342
John Nugent -26,393

This district leans GOP and even voted for McCain, but has been close in the past under previous incarnations. It drops solidly Republican Lapeer County to the 31st and Mike Green and picks up competitive Huron County and usually Republican Sanilac County from Green. It also picks up some Republican parts of northern Macomb County from Jack Brandenburg. Over 1/2 of the district is in St Clair County, which is a swing county that votes GOP more often than dem.

Phil Pavlov won this district in an open seat by a big margin, over 2-1 overall, and in St Clair County. The previous rep, Jud Gilbert, won big in 2002 and had a closer than expected race in the disaster year of 2006. Both GOP and Democrat state reps represented parts of this district. One of the state rep districts in this territory went from Mike Green (R) to Terry Brown (D) to Kurt Damrow (R). Another went from Steven Ehardt (R) to John Espinoza (D) to Paul Muxlow (R). Another went from Dan Acciavatti (R) to Jennifer Haase (D) to Andrea LaFontaine (R). Two, if not all three of those districts I'm pretty certain voted for McCain. Pavlov's won easily though, both for state rep, and state senate. This is a conservative district, but fiercely independent.

I think this district will likely be safe for Pavlov, but I'd keep an eye on this when it opens or if John Espinoza or Terry Brown run for it. That could make this a tough race and each of them have a lot of support in parts of the thumb. Haase could make a run as well, but she may have a geography disadvantage there being from Macomb County.

This one should be ours at least until it opens, but don't take it for granted.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	8434	8367	16801	67	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Sanilac County	10679	9047	19726	1632	54.14%	45.86%	8.27%
St Clair County	38356	40677	79033	-2321	48.53%	51.47%	-2.94%
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1604	1252	2856	352	56.16%	43.84%	12.32%
Memphis	227	154	381	73	59.58%	40.42%	19.16%
New Baltimore	3003	2971	5974	32	50.27%	49.73%	0.54%
Richmond	1454	1378	2832	76	51.34%	48.66%	2.68%
Richmond Twp	1142	723	1865	419	61.23%	38.77%	22.47%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	64899	64569	129468	330	50.13%	49.87%	0.25%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	9671	7629	17300	2042	55.90%	44.10%	11.80%
Sanilac County	12632	7883	20515	4749	61.57%	38.43%	23.15%
St Clair County	42740	36174	78914	6566	54.16%	45.84%	8.32%
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1797	1062	2859	735	62.85%	37.15%	25.71%
Memphis	227	170	397	57	57.18%	42.82%	14.36%
New Baltimore	3103	2440	5543	663	55.98%	44.02%	11.96%
Richmond	1610	1177	2787	433	57.77%	42.23%	15.54%
Richmond Twp	1156	674	1830	482	63.17%	36.83%	26.34%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	72936	57209	130145	15727	56.04%	43.96%	12.08%
	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sanilac County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
St Clair County	34791	16246	51037	18545	68.17%	31.83%	36.34%
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Memphis			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
New Baltimore			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Richmond			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Richmond Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	34791	16246	51037	18545	68.17%	31.83%	36.34%