Friday, June 10, 2005

Oakland County

Oakland County:
Location – Detroit Area
Population – 1,194,156 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 82.75% White, 10.11% Black, .27% American Indian, 4.14% Asian, .84% Some other Race, 1.86% Two or more races, 2.43% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Pontiac (pop 66,337)

Oakland County is the second largest county in the state and is one of the three counties in the Detroit Area. It is one of the wealthiest counties in the nation and is a competitive county in elections. It currently leans slightly democrat at the top of the ticket, but is more republican further down the ticket, which is the opposite of Macomb County which more GOP at the top, and dem at the bottom.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Independence, Oxford, Rose, and Springfield Townships, the City of Clarkston, and part of Orion Township.

9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – Bloomfield, Oakland, Southfield, West Bloomfield, and parts of Orion and Waterford Townships. The Cities of Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Clawson, Farmington, Farmington Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Orchard Lake, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, (most of) Royal Oak, Sylvan Lake and Troy.

11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – Commerce, Highland, Lyon, Milford, Novi, and White Lake Townships. The Cities of Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom. Part of Waterford Township.

12th District – Sander Levin (D) – Royal Oak Township. The cities of Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak (small part), and Southfield.

State Senators:
12th District – Mike Bishop (R) – Addison, Independence, Oakland, Orion, and Oxford Townships. The Cities of Auburn Hills, Clarkston, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Sylvan Lake.

13th District – Shirley Johnson (R) – Bloomfield Township. The Cities of Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy.

14th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – Royal Oak and Southfield Townships. The Cities of Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, and Southfield.
15th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – Commerce, Highland, Holly, Lyon, Milford, West Bloomfield, and White Lake Townships. Cities of Northville, Novi, Orchard Lake, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom.

26th District – Deborah Cherry (D) – Brandon, Groveland, Springfield, and Waterford Townships.

State Representative:
26th District – Marie Donigan (D) – Cities of Madison Heights and Royal Oak

27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge, and part of Oak Park

29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – Auburn Hills and Pontiac

35th District – Paul Condino (D) – Royal Oak Township. Cities of Lathrup Village, Southfield, and part of Oak Park.

37th District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – Farmington and Farmington Hills

38th District – Craig DeRoche (R) – Lyon and Novi Townships. Cities of Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom

39th District – David Law (R) – Commerce and most of West Bloomfield Township

40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) – Bloomfield and Southfield Townships. Cities of Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake

41st District – Robert Gosselin (R) – Clawson and Troy

43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – Waterford Township and part of West Bloomfield Township. City of Lake Angeles.

44th District – John Stakoe (R) – Highland, Independence, Springfield, and White Lake Townships. City of Clarkston.

45th District – John Garfield (R) – Oakland township. Cities of Rochester and Rochester Hills.

46th District – James Marleau (R) – Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Orion, Oxford, and Rose Townships.

66th District – Chris Ward (R) – Milford Township.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 66.32%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 33.65%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 72.43%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 26.11%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 50.48%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 49.52%

Congress:
8th District – Debbie Stabenow (D) – 55.30%, Susan Grimes Munsell (R) – 38.81%
9th District – Tom McMillin (R) – 52.04%, Dale Kildee (D) – 45.39%
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 63.36%, Travis Reeds (D) – 34.31%
12th District – Sander Levin (R) – 57.12%, Leslie Touma (R) – 40.65%

State Senators:
13th District – Michael Bouchard (R) – 64.37%, Jeffrey Jenks (D) – 32.78%
14th District – Gary Peters (D) – 65.48%, Mike Christie Jr (R) – 34.52%
15th District – Bill Bullard (R) – 61.46%, Ruth Fuller (D) - 38.54%
16th District – Mat Dunaskis (R) – 69.11%, Michael Odette (D) – 30.89%
28th District – Jodi Ann Spalding (R) – 51.01%, John Cherry (D) – 44.45%

State Representative:
34th District – Dave Woodward (D) – 54.97%, Douglas MacLean (R) – 42.11%
35th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 70.29%, Cecelio Maldanado (R) – 24.40%
36th District – Nancy Quarles (D) – 81.21%, Elizabeth LaHood (R) – 18.79%
37th District – Andrew Raczkowski (R) – 63.89%, Steve Dilbert (D) – 46.92%
38th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 71.59%, Kristy Mary Demas (D) - 28.41%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 55.17%, Maxine Brickner (D) – 40.61%
40th District – Patricia Godchaux (R) – 76.00%, Michael Coleman (D) – 24.00%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 63.21%, David Richards (D) – 33.96%
42nd District – Robert Gosselin (R) – 67.62%, Jacquelyn Moore (D) – 32.38%
43rd District – Hubert Price (D) – 73.59%, Elsie E Bigger (R) – 26.41%
44th District – Mike Kowall (R) – 53.27%, Matt Hogan (D) – 46.73%
45th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 70.26%, Margaret M Zande(D) - 29.74%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 67.54%, Roxanne LaMontaine (D) – 26.63%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 49.22%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 47.75%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 49.91%, Dianne Byrum (D) – 45.59%
9th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 52.37%, Grant Garrett (D) – 43.88%
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 55.42%, Matthew Fruman (D) – 41.07%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 63.93%, Bart Baron (R) – 32.01%

State Representative:
34th District – David Woodward (D) – 65.14%, Douglas MacLean (R) – 34.86%
35th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 74.56%, Aaron Samson (R) – 22.43%
36th District – Nancy Quarles (D) – 85.20%, Mel Palmer (R) – 14.80%
37th District – Andrew Raczkowski (R) – 50.46%, Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 48.28%
38th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 64.05%, Linda Premo (D) – 31.27%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 57.89%, Ruth Fuller (D) – 39.70%
40th District – Patricia Godchaux (R) – 72.55%, David I Kaner (D) – 27.45%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 60.52%, David T Woodward (D) – 36.61%
42nd District – Robert Gosselin (R) – 67.12%, Jerry Bixby (D) – 32.88
43rd District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 72.84%, Pamela Neely (R) – 27.16%
44th District – Mike Kowall (R) – 61.61%, Matthew Hogan III (D) – 38.39%
45th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 69.63%, Keith Van Wagner (D) – 30.37%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 64.48%, Patrick Boyon (D) – 30.84%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 50.52%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 48.30%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 56.36%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 41.69%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 50.34%, Gary Peters (D) – 47.22%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 58.29%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 40.21%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 69.99%, Frank McAlpine (D) – 28.04%
9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 58.10%, David Fink (D) – 39.88%
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 62.67%, Kevin Kelley (D) – 34.24%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 80.96%, Harvey Dean (R) – 17.37%

State Senate:
12th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 62.74%, Thomas Werth (D) – 37.26%
13th District – Shirley Johnson (R) – 63.15%, Colleen Levitt – 36.85%
14th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 68.40%, Marc Wilkins (R) – 29.48%
15th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 60.47%, Sean Carlson (D) – 37.07%
26th District – John Muller (R) – 52.17%, Deborah Cherry (D) – 47.83%

State Representative:
26th District – David Woodward (D) –60.55%, Josh West (R) – 43.27%
27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – 70.50%, Keith Sanford (R) – 26.57%
29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 76.11%, Tom March (R) – 23.89%
35th District – Paul Condino (D) – 80.18%, Sylvia Jordan (R) – 19.82%
37st District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 52.46%, Valerie Knol (R) – 47.54%
38th District – Craig DeRoche(R) – 65.05%, Linda Premo (D) – 34.95%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 60.75%, Stuart Brickner (D) – 39.25%
40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) – 62.08%, Shelli Weisberg (D) – 32.64%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 68.97%, Richard Fischer (D) – 29.00%
43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – 52.92%, Betty Fortino (D) – 47.08%
44th District – John Stakoe (R) – 70.04%, George Bryan (D) – 29.96%
45th District – John Garfield (R) – 68.73%, John Kanaras (D) - 31.27%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 70.88%, Robert Reading (D) – 29.12%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) – 70.00%, W. James Block (D) – 30.00%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 65.76%, Bob Alexander (D) – 31.33%
9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 58.45%, Steven Reifman (D) – 39.54%
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 63.47%, Phillip Truran (D) – 34.28%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 80.09%, Randall Shafer (R) – 18.44%

State Representative:
26th District – Marie Donigan (D) – 49.08%, Carlo Ginotti (R) – 45.14%
27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – 73.10%, William Axtell (R) – 24.23%
29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 74.54%, Samantha Moffett (R) – 25.46%
35th District – Paul Condino (D) – 86.76%, Alan Maislow (R) – 13.24%
37th District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 56.63%, William Largent (R) – 43.37%
38th District – Craig DeRoche (R) – 61.39%, Joan Morgan (D) – 38.61%
39th District – David Law (R) – 52.40%, Michael Schwartz (D) – 45.31%
40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) - Unopposed
41st District – Bob Gosselin (R) – 57.66%, Jim Blundo (D) – 42.34%
43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – 56.54%, Scott Hudson (D) – 43.46%
44th District – John Stakoe (R) – 67.88%, Bill Scrase (D) – 29.29%
45th District – John Garfield (R) – 63.12%, Thomas Werth (D) - 34.26
46th District – James Marleau (R) – 63.08%, Daniel Myslakowski (R) – 36.92%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) - 69.06%, W James Block (D) – 30.94%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
OAKLAND COUNTY
2000 - Bush - 274319 (48.10%), Gore – 281201 (49.31%)
2004 – Bush – 316633 (49.32%), Kerry – 319387 (49.75%)

Addison Township
2000 - 1948 (65.00%), 952 (31.77%)
2004 – 2406 (67.53%), 1113 (31.24%)

Auburn Hills City
2000 - 3408 (45.15%), 3913 (51.84%)
2004 – 4089 (45.90%), 4724 (53.03%)

Berkley City
2000 - 3860 (45.03%), 4400 (51.33%)
2004 – 4313 (45.65%), 5027 (53.21%)

Birmingham City
2000 - 6729 (56.26%), 4925 (41.18%)
2004 – 6772 (54.70%), 5508 (44.49%)

Bloomfield Hills City
2000 - 1804 (68.72%), 777 (29.60%)
2004 – 1802 (64.89%), 951 (34.25%)

Bloomfield Township
2000 - 16304 (61.87%), 9530 (36.16%)
2004 – 16314 (58.85%), 11197 (40.39%)

Brandon Township
2000 - 3824 (57.53%), 2638 (39.69%)
2004 – 4852 (60.70%), 3030 (37.91%)

Clarkston City
2000 - 300 (54.05%), 230 (41.44%)
2004 – 322 (55.52%), 252 (43.45%)

Clawson City
2000 - 3116 (46.60%), 3332 (49.83%)
2004 – 3584 (50.24%), 3471 (48.65%)

Commerce Township
2000 - 9541 (56.61%), 6867 (40.75%)
2004 – 12019 (59.91%), 7838 (39.07%)

Farmington City
2000 - 2796 (51.62%), 2442 (45.08%)
2004 – 2873 (51.06%), 2680 (47.63%)

Farmington Hills City
2000 - 19164 (47.41%), 20337 (50.31%)
2004 – 20019 (46.20%), 22931 (52.92%)

Ferndale City
2000 - 2970 (30.92%), 6107 (63.57%)
2004 – 3456 (30.71%), 7637 (67.87%)

Groveland Township
2000 - 1582 (57.76%), 1056 (38.55%)
2004 – 1988 (61.76%), 1204 (37.40%)

Hazel Park City
2000 - 2171 (34.21%), 3914 (61.68%)
2004 – 2780 (38.20%), 4412 (60.62%)

Highland Township
2000 - 5131 (57.30%), 3486 (38.93%)
2004 – 6509 (62.22%), 3849 (36.79%)

Holly Township
2000 - 2029 (47.94%), 2064 (48.77%)
2004 – 2813 (52.73%), 2442 (45.77%)

Huntington Woods City
2000 - 1094 (26.56%), 2929 (71.11%)
2004 – 1236 (28.53%), 3068 (70.82%)

Independence Township
2000 - 10116 (60.95%), 6003 (36.17%)
2004 – 12199 (63.50%), 6847 (35.64%)

Keego Harbor City
2000 - 522 (47.94%), 588 (48.77%)
2004 – 554 (47.88%), 590 (50.99%)

Lake Angelus City
2000 - 203 (89.04%), 23 (10.09%)
2004 – 217 (82.51%), 43 (16.35%)

Lathrup Village City
2000 - 719 (27.42%), 1855 (70.75%)
2004 – 686 (23.91%), 2169 (75.60%)

Lyon Township
2000 - 2815 (59.23%), 1792 (37.70%)
2004 – 4082 (63.54%), 2274 (35.40%)

Madison Heights City
2000 - 4950 (40.77%), 6771 (55.77%)
2004 – 5934 (43.79%), 7443 (54.92%)

Milford Township
2000 - 4598 (59.54%), 2921 (37.83%)
2004 – 5413 (61.92%), 3252 (37.20%)

Northville City
2000 - 1239 (62.20%), 716 (35.94%)
2004 – 1269 (58.83%), 866 (40.15%)

Novi City
2000 - 12339 (57.31%), 8667 (40.26%)
2004 – 14484 (57.24%), 10612 (41.94%)

Novi Township
2000 - 58 (60.42%), 35 (36.46%)
2004 – 67 (62.04%), 40 (37.04%)

Oak Park City
2000 - 1827 (14.09%), 10912 (84.13%)
2004 – 3120 (20.37%), 12095 (78.99%)

Oakland Township
2000 - 4823 (66.17%), 2219 (30.72%)
2004 – 6212 (67.51%), 2898 (31.50%)

Orchard Lake Village
2000 – 870 (63.09%), 471 (34.16%)
2004 – 938 (61.51%), 580 (38.03%)

Orion Township
2000 - 9329 (58.43%), 6157 (38.56%)
2004 – 11362 (61.60%), 6887 (37.34%)

Oxford Township
2000 - 4263 (58.49%), 2846 (39.05%)
2004 – 6155 (62.63%), 3557 (36.20%)

Pleasant Ridge City
2000 - 593 (36.86%), 943 (58.61%)
2004 – 658 (36.23%), 1140 (62.78%)

Pontiac City
2000 - 3360 (17.80%), 15182 (80.41%)
2004 – 4449 (20.07%), 17759 (79.21%)

Rochester City
2000 - 3270 (58.42%), 2153 (38.47%)
2004 – 3979 (59.51%), 2647 (39.59%)

Rochester Hills City
2000 - 21011 (59.56%), 13474 (38.20%)
2004 – 22733 (58.81%), 15571 (40.28%)

Rose Township
2000 - 1660 (55.56%), 1203 (40.26%)
2004 – 2139 (60.70%), 1337 (37.94%)

Royal Oak City
2000 - 14689 (45.45%), 16435 (50.85%)
2004 – 15529 (44.26%), 19143 (54.57%)

Royal Oak Township
2000 - 67 (3.49%), 1840 (95.78%)
2004 – 84 (4.75%), 1683 (95.08%)

South Lyon City
2000 - 2464 (52.39%), 2123 (45.14%)
2004 – 3191 (58.36%), 2236 (40.89%)

Southfield City
2000 - 5809 (15.63%), 30769 (82.80%)
2004 – 7269 (17.57%), 33827 (81.78%)

Southfield Township
2000 - 5133 (56.24%), 3721 (40.77%)
2004 – 5245 (54.28%), 4346 (44.93%)

Springfield Township
2000 - 3915 (60.06%), 2464 (37.80%)
2004 – 4946 (63.99%), 2710 (35.06%)

Sylvan Lake City
2000 - 583 (52.76%), 485 (43.89%)
2004 – 647 (54.28%), 529 (44.38%)

Troy City
2000 - 22775 (58.21%), 15463 (39.52%)
2004 – 24171 (56.52%), 18175 (42.50%)

Walled Lake City
2000 - 1438 (47.93%), 1462 (48.73%)
2004 – 1664 (50.81%), 1580 (48.24%)

Waterford Township
2000 - 16629 (50.79%), 15280 (46.67%)
2004 – 19965 (54.20%), 16504 (44.81%)

West Bloomfield Township
2000 – 14222 (42.00%), 19016 (56.15%)
2004 – 16150 (43.99%), 20317 (55.34%)

White Lake Township
2000 - 7279 (56.79%), 5203 (40.59%)
2004 – 9439 (61.31%), 5821 (37.81%)

Wixom City
2000 – 2970 (56.94%), 2110 (40.45%)
2004 – 3484 (57.20%), 2552 (41.90%)

This is not your dad’s Oakland County. In the old days, Oakland County was the GOP base, and along with West Michigan countered Wayne County, with democratic leaning Macomb County deciding the elections. Migration changed much of that. Many of today’s Oakland County residents did not live in Oakland County in 1984 during the Reagan landslide. Southfield was largely Catholic and Jewish in 84. Today, it is mostly black middle class. Many of the Jewish residents of Southfield then, now live in West Bloomfield, making that more democrat. Many of the Reaganites in Oakland (and West Wayne) are now living in Livingston and Lapeer counties, making them more Republican. There are a lot of former Farmington Hills, Southfield, and Novi residents now out here.

Overall, Bush improved on his numbers from 2000, and Kerry also improved on Gore’s 2000 numbers. Bush gained more in Oakland, than the democrats did, despite utter disasters in some areas, like Royal Oak. The gains were is the fast growing outer edges of the county. The center of Republican strength in Oakland is no longer the Bloomfields, but the western and northern edges. The Clarkston and Milford areas are the main base now. The democrats base is still Southfield and Ferndale, but it’s a much bigger base now than it was years ago. At the Mackinac Conference, Pollster Steve Mitchell said that Michael Dukakis defeated Bush by 5000 votes in Southfield. Al Gore defeated Bush by 24,000 votes there. John Kerry defeated Bush by 26,000 votes there.

Oakland County is usually described as fiscally conservative, and socially liberal by most pundits, and I’m sometimes as guilty of saying that myself. That’s oversimplifying things too much. Parts of Oakland County fit that description, and parts of Oakland County are very conservative, and parts of Oakland County are Very Liberal. It’s a regional county.

Southeastern Oakland is a democrat stronghold. It’s leaned democrat as long as I can remember, although much more so now, than before, and the politics here is spreading outward. Southfield, Royal Oak Township, and Oak Park all have black majorities from the middle class black exodus in Detroit. Bush actually made good percentage gains from 2000 to 2004 in Southfield, and especially Oak Park (orthodox Jews most likely), and made a slight gain in Royal Oak Township. Hazel Park is a white working/middle class area east of Oak Park. Pleasant Ridge, Huntington Woods, and Ferndale are all very culturally liberal areas. Bush lost percentage in Pleasant Ridge and Ferndale. Bush gained slightly in Huntington Woods. Berkely and Royal Oak (City) are more marginal, but cultural liberalism is pushing them leftward. Royal Oak was a disaster for Bush, and in Berkley, Bush gained slightly, while Kerry gained more.

Going west, we go through a major cause of concern for the GOP, until we reach the base. Farmington Hills, Farmington, Novi, and Northville, Wixom, Walled Lake, Milford, Lyon Township, and South Lyon. Farmington Hills fits every pundit’s stereotype about Oakland County. It was once a GOP stronghold, but now is moving democrat. Farmington is the same way, but tilts about 3% more GOP. Bush lost votes in both areas, and the democrats gained there. Northville and Novi are my concern. It shows that the liberal yuppies are moving westward. Northville (Oakland portion) is solid GOP, but made a big move toward the democrats. Novi was stagnant and did not have any real gains for Bush. Same with Wixom. Walled Lake did flip our way in 2004. We need to concentrate on those areas to stop the bleeding in Oakland. Past Wixom though is a different story. Lyon township, South Lyon, and Milford all were major gains for the GOP, and net losses by percentage for Kerry. South Lyon especially moved right. We need to maintain those big gains in outer SW Oakland. Central Western Oakland follows the same pattern as Milford - Highland, White Lake and Commerce Townships were all big gains for Bush.

Central Oakland is going to be a battleground for years. West Bloomfield is just North of Farmington Hills and is becoming a democrat stronghold. Bush stopped the bleeding there in 2004 due to inroads among Jewish voters, but Granholm got 58% there in 2002. The other Bloomfields are Republican Strongholds, but not like they used to be. Bush lost ground in all of them, as well as Birmingham. North of there, Pontiac is a democrat stronghold, but Bush improved there in 2004. Auburn Hills tilted more democrat however. East of there, Bush gained slightly in Rochester, but lost ground in Rochester Hills and Troy. Clawson broke the pattern, and flipped from Gore to Bush. He did gain in Democrat Madison Heights as well. However, there’s a trend toward the democrats here, especially in the affluent areas.

The Northern tier is going the opposite way of Central Oakland. Oakland, Orion, Oxford, and Rose all broke 60% for Bush in major gains. Holly (Near Grand Blanc) flipped from Gore to Bush in convincing fashion, most likely due to migration. The whole Grand Blanc area is moving right. The GOP needs to continue to gain here to help counter the bleeding in the more affluent areas.

Redistricting changed many of the districts. Two commonly made statements is that Joe Knollenberg’s district has been made more democrat in 2002. The other is that Knollenberg’s district has been sacrificed for Mike Rogers. Both of those are incorrect. Knollenberg’s old district was more democrat because of Southfield. The Congressional changes are as follows:

Knollenberg 2000 AND 2002 – Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Farmington, Farmington Hills, Keego Harbor, Southfield Township, Sylvan Lake, West Bloomfield Township,

Knollenberg 2000/McCotter 2002 – Commerce Township, Highland Township, Lyon Township, Milford Township, Northville, Novi, Novi Township, White Lake, Wixom, (and Livonia and Redford Township in Wayne County)

Knollenberg 2000/Levin 2002 – Lathrup Village, Southfield City (most)

Levin 2000 and 2002 – Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak (small part), Southfield (small part)

Levin 2000/Knollenberg 2002 – Berkley, Clawson, Royal Oak(most), Troy.

Kildee 2000/Knollenberg 2002 – Auburn Hills, Lake Angeles, Orion Township (part), Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Waterford (part)

Kildee 2000/Rogers 2002 – Brandon Township, Clarkston, Groveland Township, Independence township, Orion Township (most), Springfield,

Kildee 2000/McCotter 2002 – Waterford (part)

Rogers 2000 and 2002 – Holly and Rose Townships.

Rogers, Kildee, McCotter, Levin, and to a lesser extent, Knollenberg were all winners in redistricting. Rogers gained some of the more Republican parts of Oakland County from Dale Kildee to help offset the Lansing/East Lansing portion of his district. Kildee shedded the fastest growing portion of his district and gained Saginaw and Bay City. McCotter gained the most Republican portion of Oakland County in a new district shared with Wayne County. Levin lost the Republican portion of his district and gained the most democrat portion of his district. Knollenberg lost some GOP and democrat areas of his district, and gained both democrat Pontiac and Royal Oak, but also GOP Rochester/Rochester Hills/Troy, and kept some GOP leaning areas of his district. Knollenberg’s 11th district in 2000 went for Al Gore, but his 2004 9th district went for Bush, although barely. Southfield alone has that much of an effect on a district. 13,000 votes (Pontiac) is easier to make up than 26,000 votes (Southfield).
The state senate districts changed a little, but not that much. Same with the state representative districts.

The 8th, 9th, and 11th congressional districts are all potentially competitive in the right year for democrats. Rogers and McCotter should always carry their parts of Oakland, but have democrat areas elsewhere. Knollenberg’s district is 50/50 partisanwise, although he is personally popular in the district and ran 8% ahead of Bush in 2004.

The 13th District in the state senate is not a gimme for the GOP. Currently held by social liberal Shirley Johnson, it contains much of the Bouchard district discussed earlier, although does not have the Ferndale/Huntington Woods areas, and has Bloomfield Township instead. This district went 51.98% for Bush, but Troy and Bloomfield Township are less Republican than they used to be, and Royal Oak is now a strong democrat lean. David Woodward would be a tough candidate here, especially if social liberals and social conservatives have a tough fight in the primary.

The 26th District in the state senate is a sleeper for the GOP. They did not contest this hard in 2002, which is shocking since it’s taken a right turn. Deborah Cherry cruised to a 55.85% win, but the district went only 49.86% for John Kerry. The Oakland County part of the district strongly leans republican, and Grand Blanc in Genesee County is moving back towards the GOP. State Rep Dave Robertson would be a very strong candidate for this district. Cherry is a strong democrat, but has not really been tested, since she’s only won safe democrat districts. Robertson defeated an incumbent in 2002.

The Royal Oak based 26th District in the state house was very close in 2004. Marie Donigan barely squeaked by Carlo Ginotti in a surprising close race. The district went 54.67% for Kerry, but if the GOP stops the bleeding in Royal Oak and Madison Heights with a strong local candidate, we could maybe win an upset here. It won’t be easy, but we don’t win when we don’t try.

The Farmington Hills based 37th District has had tough fights in the last three elections. Aldo Vagnozzi barely lost to then incumbent Rocky Raczkowski by a few hundred votes in 2000. Rocky was term limited out in 2002, and Aldo won the district twice since then, last time with 55.02%. This could be a race in 2006, but I expect more of a contest in 08 with term limits. The district went 52.31% to John Kerry.

The West Bloomfield/Commerce Township based 39th district is a tough district. David Law won the open seat in 2004 with 52.40% of the vote, but the district went 50.31% for John Kerry. West Bloomfield is strongly democrat (Knollenberg exception), and Commerce Township is strongly Republican. This will be contested for a few more years.

The Waterford based 43rd district is slightly GOP leaning. It contains some republican parts of West Bloomfield, and small but solidly GOP Lake Angeles, as well as Waterford which swings locally, and slightly leans GOP statewide. Fran Amos won a close race here in 2002, and won with 56.54% in 2004. President Bush won here with 55.03% of the vote, but he ran stronger than most Republicans in Waterford which is usually 51-52% GOP.

Oakland will continue to be a battleground for years to come. The question is will it be a battleground countywide, or only in small portions of it as is the case in Wayne County. This depends on how many gains are made in the Northern and Westernmost parts of the county, and if the bleeding stops in Central Oakland.

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