Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 17 (SD-17)

State Senate - District 17
Current Rep – Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) Termed out

2010 Results - Old District (17th)
Randy Richardville -51,657
John Spencer -32,980

This district is a swing district. It's changed a bit to something similar to what it was in the 90's, but the numbers don't change that much. The Washtenaw County and Jackson County portions of the district went to the 16th, 18th, and 22nd districts. This district is now just Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

People rag on Richardville for being pro-union, but look at his district. Monroe County is a populist county. It'll elect people from both parties, but tends to favor Dingell democrats, 2010 notwithstanding. John Kerry types tend to lose here. Going back to 2000, Gore won Monroe and Bush won Lenawee. Clinton won both. The GOP had both state rep seats in Monroe in 2002 and lost them in 04 through 2010. The Dems had Lenawee state rep seat in 02 through 2010. In gubernatorial races, Posthumus won both counties, so did Granholm in 06. By every account except the Center For Michigan, this is a swing district.

I think this district may be our 2nd toughest defense. The reason being are the Spades (Doug and Dudley). They are now in this district, and I can see them selling in Monroe County. There's also no shortage of a farm club for dems in Monroe County. The GOP has three state reps now in this state senate district, so they have a farm club here as well. Expect a major battle for this seat.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County 22225 24640 46865 -2415 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Monroe County 35858 39180 75038 -3322 47.79% 52.21% -4.43%



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Total 58083 63820 121903 -5737 47.65% 52.35% -4.71%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County 25675 20787 46462 4888 55.26% 44.74% 10.52%
Monroe County 37470 36089 73559 1381 50.94% 49.06% 1.88%



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Total 63145 56876 120021 6269 52.61% 47.39% 5.22%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County

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Monroe County 29380 16762 46142 12618 63.67% 36.33% 27.35%



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Total 29380 16762 46142 12618 63.67% 36.33% 27.35%

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