Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 16 (SD-16)

State Senate - District 16
Current Rep – Bruce Caswell (R-Adams Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (16th)
Bruce Caswell - 47,504
Doug Spade - 26,181

This district changed dramatically back to something similar to the 1990's era district. Lenawee County was dropped to the 17th district. St Joseph County goes to the 21st. They instead pick up all of Jackson County from the 19th and 17th districts. Hillsdale and Branch Counties keep this a Republican leaning district. Jackson is a competitive county every election, although Republicans win it more than democrats, albeit the numbers are narrow every election.

The numbers may not show it, but Caswell actually beat a strong opponent in Doug Spade. The Spades have represented Lenawee County for 12 years as state reps, replacing Tim Walberg who is now in Congress. The GOP finally took the state rep district there back in 2010. The big numbers in the Caswell race is due to Hillsdale and Branch Counties being GOP strongholds. They ran almost even up in Lenawee County despite 2010 being a blowout year.

Overall, this is a safe GOP district outside of an absolute disaster. Even McCain won it. Jackson County could flip in a bad year, but Hillsdale and Branch should offset any voting deficits there. Jackson's state rep districts flipped back to the GOP too, so the farm club there is weak for the dems.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9534 8413 17947 1121 53.12% 46.88% 6.25%
Jackson County 35692 37480 73172 -1788 48.78% 51.22% -2.44%
Hillsdale County 11221 8765 19986 2456 56.14% 43.86% 12.29%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 56447 54658 111105 1789 50.81% 49.19% 1.61%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 10784 7004 17788 3780 60.63% 39.37% 21.25%
Jackson County 40029 31025 71054 9004 56.34% 43.66% 12.67%
Hillsdale County 12804 7123 19927 5681 64.25% 35.75% 28.51%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 63617 45152 108769 18465 58.49% 41.51% 16.98%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9899 2855 12754 7044 77.61% 22.39% 55.23%
Jackson County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hillsdale County 11190 2954 14144 8236 79.11% 20.89% 58.23%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 21089 5809 26898 15280 78.40% 21.60% 56.81%

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