Sunday, August 14, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 24 (SD-24)

State Senate - District 24
Current Rep – Rick Jones (R-Grand Ledge)

2010 Results - Old District (24th)
Rick Jones - 64,039
Michelle DiSano - 30,052

Rick Jones took one for the team here. He gave up an almost 60% district in a good year for a potentially very competitive district. He dropped GOP strongholds of Barry and Allegan Counties and picked up Clinton (from Cropsey/Emmons and the 33rd district), Shiawassee (from 22nd District and Joe Hune), and part of Ingham County (From 23rd and Whitmer) creating an "outer Capitol" district. I think most pundits are going to call this one safe. I can't do that. I'll call this lean R for now. It might be safe for Jones, who has won countywide in Eaton County for years back when he was the sheriff, but this seat can't be taken for granted. It would have been safe R 10 years ago, but it's treading blue enough now to be a swing seat in a bad year. There's a lot of government workers here.

Eaton County is erratic in its voting. It voted for Granholm twice, Bush twice, Clinton, Obama, Sue Tabor (possible most social conservative rep in the house), Rick Jones, Mark Schauer, and Joe Schwarz. If I had to classify it overall, it's somewhat social conservative, pro-gun, but pro-government. Delta Township is a swing area, which probably now leans blue. Charlotte, Eaton Rapids, and Grand Ledge are swing areas that are more GOP than dem but winnable for either side. The most democrat portion of the county is the portion of Lansing in the county. That's majority minority, and more democrat than the portion of Lansing in Ingham County by percentage.

Clinton County used to be a base GOP county. Now it's very competitive. Obama won it, so did Granholm, breaking a long streak of Republican wins. There's a sizable government worker population here too, but the big reason for the change is East Lansing moving north. Bath Township, and East Lansing annexing area. It's not the swing area of Bath Township of 20 years ago, or even back when I was a student at MSU. If you want to know what this county is competitive now, go to Abbot Road in East Lansing and drive north, past the County line where it turns into Chandler. You'll see a lot of new student apartments. It's like never leaving East Lansing. The rest of Clinton County is strong GOP as it was before. DeWitt and St Johns are competitive, the rest usually is not.

Shiawassee County has always been competitive but outside of 2008, has moved our way. It's a commuter county for Lansing and Flint, so there's a union presence. The democrats they support are more of the old style blue collar union types rather than the academia types. They voted for Bush twice, Posthumus, Granholm, and Obama. They voted for Joe Hune twice. Their state rep district has been republican since Larry Julian won in an upset in 98. I believe it's been dem for about 20 years before that.

The portion of Ingham County here is republican leaning, but competitive. Williamston and Webberville have a lot of Lansing commuters, but don't have the East Lansing influence to the extent of Bath Township. Like Shiawassee and outer Eaton/Clinton Counties, the people there want to be away from the city. Past Okemos.

Overall, keep an eye on this one. We can't take it for granted. Bush won it in 04 by 15000 votes, but Obama won it by over 8000.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County 19726 20005 39731 -279 49.65% 50.35% -0.70%
Eaton County 25900 30742 56642 -4842 45.73% 54.27% -8.55%
Shiawassee County 16268 19397 35665 -3129 45.61% 54.39% -8.77%
Ingham County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Leroy Twp 927 830 1757 97 52.76% 47.24% 5.52%
Locke Twp 549 471 1020 78 53.82% 46.18% 7.65%
Wheatfield Twp 525 477 1002 48 52.40% 47.60% 4.79%
Williamston 945 1105 2050 -160 46.10% 53.90% -7.80%
Williamstown Twp 1582 1653 3235 -71 48.90% 51.10% -2.19%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 66422 74680 141102 -8258 47.07% 52.93% -5.85%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County 21989 15483 37472 6506 58.68% 41.32% 17.36%
Eaton County 29781 25411 55192 4370 53.96% 46.04% 7.92%
Shiawassee County 19407 16881 36288 2526 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Ingham County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Leroy Twp 1103 674 1777 429 62.07% 37.93% 24.14%
Locke Twp 657 361 1018 296 64.54% 35.46% 29.08%
Wheatfield Twp 624 375 999 249 62.46% 37.54% 24.92%
Williamston 1065 869 1934 196 55.07% 44.93% 10.13%
Williamstown Twp 1824 1373 3197 451 57.05% 42.95% 14.11%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 76450 61427 137877 15023 55.45% 44.55% 10.90%








Last St Senate GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Eaton County 25674 14111 39785 11563 64.53% 35.47% 29.06%
Shiawassee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ingham County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Leroy Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Locke Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wheatfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Williamston

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Williamstown Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25674 14111 39785 11563 64.53% 35.47% 29.06%

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