Sunday, November 13, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 31 (HD-31)

State House - District 31
Current Rep - Marilyn Lane (D-Fraser)

Declared Candidates:
Dem - Marilyn Lane (D-Fraser)
GOP - Lynn Evans (R-Fraser)

2010 Results - Old District (31st)
Marilyn Lane - 12,710
Dan Tollis - 10,874

8-30-2012 - Lynn Evans won his primary.

The old district was always in the "good enough to lose" category. The GOP has fought for it heavily several times, but couldn't break through. It covered most of Fraser, Mt Clemens, and part of Clinton Township. Lane won the open seat narrowly replacing Fred Miller who also often won close races.

In 2010, Lane won the Fraser portion narrowly, Mt Clemens easily, and the Clinton Township portion by a relatively close margin. While the race was close, she won all municipalities. Fraser went GOP in 04 for state rep, but it didn't change the district.

Redistricting made the district expand and take the rest of Fraser from the 42nd district. The portion of Clinton Township in this district is the Southern Portion. It used to be the eastern portion. Dave's redistricting has this district at about 58% Obama. I wish I had the Bush/Kerry numbers for this one as well. I expect the old and new numbers to be similar from a partisanship standpoint.

I think this may be winnable with a great candidate in a great year, but I'd have to see it to believe it here. There's just a real strong Bonioresque labor influence still in this area.

No comments: