GOP is running Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing) to challenge Dan Kildee. While you don't have to live in the district to run for Congress, I think it's real bad form to run for a seat 50 miles from where you live. That would be like me running in Levin's seat.
This district is a real tough go anyway and it will take a Bill Jefferson or Dan Rostenkowski situation to win this district.
MI-05 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2010 Update is here.
Incumbent – Daniel Kildee (D-Flint Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 2
Challengers – Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 2
Challengers – Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing)
2012:
Jim Slezak – 103931 – 31.48%
Daniel Kildee –
214531 – 64.98%
-110600 vote difference
Romney – 130421 votes – 38.35%
Obama – 206294 votes – 60.66%
-75873 vote difference.
2008:
McCain – 130127 votes – 35.40%
Obama – 231432 votes – 62.97%
-101305 vote difference
2004:
Bush – 147774 votes – 40.96%
Kerry – 210205 votes – 58.26%
-62431 vote difference
This district is mostly a blue sink with some bridges and
county split avoidances. Like the 2002 similar district, Genesee County is kept
whole while Saginaw County is split. Bay County is made whole this time along
with marginal swing counties of Iosco and Arenac which the mapmakers wanted to
take away from Benishek. Tuscola County was split some as Candice Miller needed
to take more of the thumb as Levin’s district expanded.
Genesee County dominates the district. It’s either the 2nd
or 3rd most Democrat county in the state in any given year. That’s
due to Flint along with most of its suburbs which are also blue. The bluest
parts of Saginaw County are also in this district, as is the more moderate but
yellow dog Bay County. Tuscola County is the bridge between Saginaw and Genesee
as Birch Run was put in Camp’s district to give him Frankenmuth.
This is a safe D district, and you’ll see how safe it is,
despite Dale Kildee’s (Dan’s uncle) scare in the wave year. Between Flint,
Saginaw, Bay City, Mount Morris, and Buena Vista, it would take the perfect
storm to win.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, except that I’ll
replace the black with dark blue for 70% d areas.
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Iosco and Arenac are somewhat similar swing counties. Iosco
is more apt to go Republican, although Romney won Arenac, something Bush was
unable to do (lost by 5 votes in 04). These are populist counties which prefer
Joel Sheltrown or Jim Barcia democrats compared to national democrats. Most of
Iosco County is a swing area, although the GOP is strong in Alabaster Twp and
Tawas while the dems are strong in Au Sable, Whittemore/Burleigh Twp, and Grant
Twp. Arenac is mostly swing as well, but Adams Twp is a deep red island in an
otherwise competitive area. Deep River
Twp (Sterling), Arenac Twp/Omer, and Standish Twp (east of Standish) are strong
dem areas, usually stronger than in 2012.
Bay County is a yellow dog county most of the time. It’s
competitive outside of the city area itself, but outside of 2012, the dems
usually win that too. Pinconning, Fraser Twp, and Hampton Twp are usually much
more dem than they were in 2012. Those are often 55%+. Bay City is the big dem
stronghold. It was again 60%+ in 2012. Romney held the dems to 52.22%. I think
we are slowly gaining some ground here. Kerry had 54% and Obama 08 had 56.75%
South of there is part of Saginaw County. Most of the county
is in the 4th, but the major dem parts are here. Blumfield Twp is
70%R and similar to Frankenmuth in voting, and Saginaw Twp can go either way
overall, but leans slightly R. That’s the mix of precincts west of the city.
Saginaw itself is just getting worse by percentage as whites leave town. 74.02%
Kerry to 79.80% Obama to 81.01% Obama. Romney had 400 less votes than McCain.
Obama had a 1000 less vote spread anyway, but that’s what makes the county go
blue. Bridgeport and Carrolton are going to be more and more trouble as well with
migration. Buena Vista Twp is black majority and an extension of East Saginaw.
East of there is a small part of Tuscola County mostly as a
bridge to Genesee County so Camp could get Frankenmuth. There’s some strong GOP
townships there, as well as dem Arbela twp.
Genesee County shows the story of this district. Flint is
89.03% Democrat now, up from 83.07% in 04 and even 88.13% in 08. Flint Twp just
broke 70% D and is going to soon be another Mt Morris Twp (79.69%) due to
migration. Romney had less votes countywide than McCain. Most of the light blue
areas are just that. Blue. Flushing, Gaines, and Clayton Townships are
winnable. Bush won it. Grand Blanc may be gone with migration, but I wouldn’t
give up on it just yet. We’re bleeding badly in Davison. Obama broke 60% there
which he didn’t do in 08. In this county, the key is to get what we can and win
the Southern part of the County. Fenton, Linden, Argentine, Atlas Twp, and
hopefully still Grand Blanc. Flushing is another major area. We also need to stop
the bleeding in Davison (Michael Moore’s homeown).
Hopefully some more ground can be made up here with the auto
bailout being less of an issue with Obama gone. Bush got this district under
60% Dem and in order to win statewide, that needs to be done again.
| District 5 | Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM |
| Arenac County | ||||||
| Adams Twp | 180 | 92 | 274 | 88 | 65.69% | 33.58% |
| Arenac Twp | 192 | 233 | 433 | -41 | 44.34% | 53.81% |
| Au Gres | 257 | 202 | 468 | 55 | 54.91% | 43.16% |
| Au Gres Twp | 306 | 248 | 560 | 58 | 54.64% | 44.29% |
| Clayton Twp | 202 | 245 | 458 | -43 | 44.10% | 53.49% |
| Deep River Twp | 507 | 528 | 1052 | -21 | 48.19% | 50.19% |
| Lincoln Twp | 228 | 183 | 417 | 45 | 54.68% | 43.88% |
| Mason Twp | 187 | 171 | 360 | 16 | 51.94% | 47.50% |
| Moffatt Twp | 354 | 300 | 667 | 54 | 53.07% | 44.98% |
| Omer | 43 | 74 | 119 | -31 | 36.13% | 62.18% |
| Sims Twp | 379 | 281 | 666 | 98 | 56.91% | 42.19% |
| Standish | 307 | 251 | 571 | 56 | 53.77% | 43.96% |
| Standish Twp | 423 | 478 | 914 | -55 | 46.28% | 52.30% |
| Turner Twp | 146 | 118 | 268 | 28 | 54.48% | 44.03% |
| Whitney Twp | 346 | 265 | 614 | 81 | 56.35% | 43.16% |
| Total | 4057 | 3669 | 7841 | 388 | 51.74% | 46.79% |
| Bay County | ||||||
| Auburn | 635 | 483 | 1132 | 152 | 56.10% | 42.67% |
| Bangor Twp | 3749 | 4115 | 7932 | -366 | 47.26% | 51.88% |
| Bay City | 5029 | 8773 | 13949 | -3744 | 36.05% | 62.89% |
| Beaver Twp | 797 | 635 | 1448 | 162 | 55.04% | 43.85% |
| Essexville | 906 | 1062 | 1992 | -156 | 45.48% | 53.31% |
| Frankenlust Twp | 1370 | 718 | 2105 | 652 | 65.08% | 34.11% |
| Fraser Twp | 801 | 863 | 1694 | -62 | 47.28% | 50.94% |
| Garfield Twp | 455 | 445 | 919 | 10 | 49.51% | 48.42% |
| Gibson Twp | 267 | 257 | 533 | 10 | 50.09% | 48.22% |
| Hampton Twp | 2195 | 2630 | 4889 | -435 | 44.90% | 53.79% |
| Kawkawlin Twp | 1272 | 1169 | 2467 | 103 | 51.56% | 47.39% |
| Merritt Twp | 448 | 363 | 819 | 85 | 54.70% | 44.32% |
| Midland | 23 | 30 | 54 | -7 | 42.59% | 55.56% |
| Monitor Twp | 3388 | 2882 | 6332 | 506 | 53.51% | 45.51% |
| Mount Forest Twp | 367 | 317 | 695 | 50 | 52.81% | 45.61% |
| Pinconning | 257 | 309 | 577 | -52 | 44.54% | 53.55% |
| Pinconning Twp | 609 | 617 | 1237 | -8 | 49.23% | 49.88% |
| Portsmouth Twp | 852 | 1060 | 1936 | -208 | 44.01% | 54.75% |
| Williams Twp | 1491 | 1149 | 2671 | 342 | 55.82% | 43.02% |
| Total | 24911 | 27877 | 53381 | -2966 | 46.67% | 52.22% |
| Genesee County | ||||||
| Argentine Twp | 1871 | 1502 | 3422 | 369 | 54.68% | 43.89% |
| Atlas Twp | 2655 | 1978 | 4670 | 677 | 56.85% | 42.36% |
| Burton | 4834 | 8348 | 13344 | -3514 | 36.23% | 62.56% |
| Clayton Twp | 1991 | 2197 | 4240 | -206 | 46.96% | 51.82% |
| Clio | 403 | 654 | 1069 | -251 | 37.70% | 61.18% |
| Davison | 1004 | 1620 | 2659 | -616 | 37.76% | 60.93% |
| Davison Twp | 4628 | 5457 | 10182 | -829 | 45.45% | 53.59% |
| Fenton | 2809 | 2751 | 5630 | 58 | 49.89% | 48.86% |
| Fenton Twp | 5280 | 3786 | 9143 | 1494 | 57.75% | 41.41% |
| Flint | 4111 | 35630 | 40018 | -31519 | 10.27% | 89.03% |
| Flint Twp | 4268 | 10463 | 14838 | -6195 | 28.76% | 70.51% |
| Flushing | 2328 | 2476 | 4833 | -148 | 48.17% | 51.23% |
| Flushing Twp | 2842 | 3078 | 5980 | -236 | 47.53% | 51.47% |
| Forest Twp | 1114 | 1371 | 2513 | -257 | 44.33% | 54.56% |
| Gaines Twp | 1763 | 1987 | 3781 | -224 | 46.63% | 52.55% |
| Genesee Twp | 3122 | 6636 | 9898 | -3514 | 31.54% | 67.04% |
| Grand Blanc | 2006 | 2261 | 4302 | -255 | 46.63% | 52.56% |
| Grand Blanc Twp | 8785 | 10565 | 19502 | -1780 | 45.05% | 54.17% |
| Linden | 1181 | 951 | 2149 | 230 | 54.96% | 44.25% |
| Montrose | 282 | 419 | 719 | -137 | 39.22% | 58.28% |
| Montrose Twp | 1233 | 1647 | 2923 | -414 | 42.18% | 56.35% |
| Mount Morris | 324 | 848 | 1192 | -524 | 27.18% | 71.14% |
| Mount Morris Twp | 1919 | 7716 | 9693 | -5797 | 19.80% | 79.60% |
| Mundy Twp | 3818 | 4446 | 8340 | -628 | 45.78% | 53.31% |
| Richfield Twp | 1956 | 2637 | 4645 | -681 | 42.11% | 56.77% |
| Swartz Creek | 1290 | 1798 | 3122 | -508 | 41.32% | 57.59% |
| Thetford Twp | 1339 | 2072 | 3473 | -733 | 38.55% | 59.66% |
| Vienna Twp | 2654 | 3711 | 6430 | -1057 | 41.28% | 57.71% |
| Total | 71810 | 129005 | 202710 | -57195 | 35.42% | 63.64% |
| Iosco County | ||||||
| Alabaster Twp | 183 | 118 | 304 | 65 | 60.20% | 38.82% |
| Au Sable Twp | 478 | 520 | 1015 | -42 | 47.09% | 51.23% |
| Baldwin Twp | 509 | 429 | 945 | 80 | 53.86% | 45.40% |
| Burleigh Twp | 151 | 183 | 339 | -32 | 44.54% | 53.98% |
| East Tawas | 780 | 659 | 1457 | 121 | 53.53% | 45.23% |
| Grant Twp | 366 | 394 | 768 | -28 | 47.66% | 51.30% |
| Oscoda Twp | 1861 | 1690 | 3608 | 171 | 51.58% | 46.84% |
| Plainfield Twp | 981 | 955 | 1947 | 26 | 50.39% | 49.05% |
| Reno Twp | 169 | 145 | 316 | 24 | 53.48% | 45.89% |
| Sherman Twp | 136 | 117 | 261 | 19 | 52.11% | 44.83% |
| Tawas City | 465 | 366 | 839 | 99 | 55.42% | 43.62% |
| Tawas Twp | 539 | 380 | 932 | 159 | 57.83% | 40.77% |
| Whittemore | 78 | 98 | 188 | -20 | 41.49% | 52.13% |
| Wilber Twp | 233 | 188 | 425 | 45 | 54.82% | 44.24% |
| Total | 6929 | 6242 | 13344 | 687 | 51.93% | 46.78% |
| Saginaw County (part) | ||||||
| Blumfield Twp | 868 | 303 | 1183 | 565 | 73.37% | 25.61% |
| Bridgeport Twp | 1861 | 3391 | 5303 | -1530 | 35.09% | 63.94% |
| Buena Vista Twp | 494 | 3580 | 4092 | -3086 | 12.07% | 87.49% |
| Carrollton Twp | 952 | 1754 | 2746 | -802 | 34.67% | 63.87% |
| Saginaw | 3736 | 16788 | 20724 | -13052 | 18.03% | 81.01% |
| Saginaw Twp 1 | 476 | 772 | 1259 | -296 | 37.81% | 61.32% |
| Saginaw Twp 2 | 702 | 487 | 1202 | 215 | 58.40% | 40.52% |
| Saginaw Twp 3 | 629 | 551 | 1186 | 78 | 53.04% | 46.46% |
| Saginaw Twp 4 | 508 | 420 | 938 | 88 | 54.16% | 44.78% |
| Saginaw Twp 5 | 856 | 842 | 1710 | 14 | 50.06% | 49.24% |
| Saginaw Twp 6 | 940 | 822 | 1778 | 118 | 52.87% | 46.23% |
| Saginaw Twp 7 | 982 | 936 | 1938 | 46 | 50.67% | 48.30% |
| Saginaw Twp 8 | 553 | 503 | 1064 | 50 | 51.97% | 47.27% |
| Saginaw Twp 9 | 900 | 679 | 1593 | 221 | 56.50% | 42.62% |
| Saginaw Twp 10 | 734 | 895 | 1645 | -161 | 44.62% | 54.41% |
| Saginaw Twp 11 | 498 | 880 | 1393 | -382 | 35.75% | 63.17% |
| Saginaw Twp 12 | 668 | 630 | 1308 | 38 | 51.07% | 48.17% |
| Spaulding Twp | 455 | 631 | 1100 | -176 | 41.36% | 57.36% |
| Zilwaukee | 402 | 458 | 866 | -56 | 46.42% | 52.89% |
| Zilwaukee Twp | 23 | 25 | 49 | -2 | 46.94% | 51.02% |
| Total | 17237 | 35347 | 53077 | -18110 | 32.48% | 66.60% |
| Tuscola County (part) | ||||||
| Arbela Twp | 735 | 758 | 1520 | -23 | 48.36% | 49.87% |
| Denmark Twp | 1130 | 496 | 1641 | 634 | 68.86% | 30.23% |
| Gilford Twp | 274 | 140 | 420 | 134 | 65.24% | 33.33% |
| Millington Twp | 1143 | 976 | 2143 | 167 | 53.34% | 45.54% |
| Tuscola Twp | 749 | 382 | 1138 | 367 | 65.82% | 33.57% |
| Vassar | 565 | 539 | 1117 | 26 | 50.58% | 48.25% |
| Vassar Twp (part) | 881 | 863 | 1767 | 18 | 49.86% | 48.84% |
| Total | 5477 | 4154 | 9746 | 1323 | 56.20% | 42.62% |
| Total All | 130421 | 206294 | 340099 | -75873 | 38.35% | 60.66% |
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