Thursday, April 25, 2013

Congressional District 5 - Updated 2013 (MI-05)

2014 Update:
GOP is running Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing) to challenge Dan Kildee. While you don't have to live in the district to run for Congress, I think it's real bad form to run for a seat 50 miles from where you live. That would be like me running in Levin's seat.

This district is a real tough go anyway and it will take a Bill Jefferson or Dan Rostenkowski situation to win this district.



MI-05 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2010 Update is here.

Incumbent – Daniel Kildee (D-Flint Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 2
Challengers – Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing)

2012:
Jim Slezak – 103931 – 31.48%
Daniel Kildee  – 214531 – 64.98%
-110600 vote difference

Romney – 130421 votes – 38.35%
Obama – 206294 votes – 60.66%
-75873 vote difference.

2008:
McCain – 130127 votes – 35.40%
Obama – 231432 votes – 62.97%
-101305 vote difference

2004:
Bush – 147774 votes – 40.96%
Kerry – 210205 votes – 58.26%
-62431 vote difference

This district is mostly a blue sink with some bridges and county split avoidances. Like the 2002 similar district, Genesee County is kept whole while Saginaw County is split. Bay County is made whole this time along with marginal swing counties of Iosco and Arenac which the mapmakers wanted to take away from Benishek. Tuscola County was split some as Candice Miller needed to take more of the thumb as Levin’s district expanded.

Genesee County dominates the district. It’s either the 2nd or 3rd most Democrat county in the state in any given year. That’s due to Flint along with most of its suburbs which are also blue. The bluest parts of Saginaw County are also in this district, as is the more moderate but yellow dog Bay County. Tuscola County is the bridge between Saginaw and Genesee as Birch Run was put in Camp’s district to give him Frankenmuth.

This is a safe D district, and you’ll see how safe it is, despite Dale Kildee’s (Dan’s uncle) scare in the wave year. Between Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Mount Morris, and Buena Vista, it would take the perfect storm to win.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, except that I’ll replace the black with dark blue for 70% d areas.

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow

MI-5a

mi-5b

MI-5c
Iosco and Arenac are somewhat similar swing counties. Iosco is more apt to go Republican, although Romney won Arenac, something Bush was unable to do (lost by 5 votes in 04). These are populist counties which prefer Joel Sheltrown or Jim Barcia democrats compared to national democrats. Most of Iosco County is a swing area, although the GOP is strong in Alabaster Twp and Tawas while the dems are strong in Au Sable, Whittemore/Burleigh Twp, and Grant Twp. Arenac is mostly swing as well, but Adams Twp is a deep red island in an otherwise competitive area.  Deep River Twp (Sterling), Arenac Twp/Omer, and Standish Twp (east of Standish) are strong dem areas, usually stronger than in 2012.

Bay County is a yellow dog county most of the time. It’s competitive outside of the city area itself, but outside of 2012, the dems usually win that too. Pinconning, Fraser Twp, and Hampton Twp are usually much more dem than they were in 2012. Those are often 55%+. Bay City is the big dem stronghold. It was again 60%+ in 2012. Romney held the dems to 52.22%. I think we are slowly gaining some ground here. Kerry had 54% and Obama 08 had 56.75%

South of there is part of Saginaw County. Most of the county is in the 4th, but the major dem parts are here. Blumfield Twp is 70%R and similar to Frankenmuth in voting, and Saginaw Twp can go either way overall, but leans slightly R. That’s the mix of precincts west of the city. Saginaw itself is just getting worse by percentage as whites leave town. 74.02% Kerry to 79.80% Obama to 81.01% Obama. Romney had 400 less votes than McCain. Obama had a 1000 less vote spread anyway, but that’s what makes the county go blue. Bridgeport and Carrolton are going to be more and more trouble as well with migration. Buena Vista Twp is black majority and an extension of East Saginaw.

East of there is a small part of Tuscola County mostly as a bridge to Genesee County so Camp could get Frankenmuth. There’s some strong GOP townships there, as well as dem Arbela twp.

Genesee County shows the story of this district. Flint is 89.03% Democrat now, up from 83.07% in 04 and even 88.13% in 08. Flint Twp just broke 70% D and is going to soon be another Mt Morris Twp (79.69%) due to migration. Romney had less votes countywide than McCain. Most of the light blue areas are just that. Blue. Flushing, Gaines, and Clayton Townships are winnable. Bush won it. Grand Blanc may be gone with migration, but I wouldn’t give up on it just yet. We’re bleeding badly in Davison. Obama broke 60% there which he didn’t do in 08. In this county, the key is to get what we can and win the Southern part of the County. Fenton, Linden, Argentine, Atlas Twp, and hopefully still Grand Blanc. Flushing is another major area. We also need to stop the bleeding in Davison (Michael Moore’s homeown).

Hopefully some more ground can be made up here with the auto bailout being less of an issue with Obama gone. Bush got this district under 60% Dem and in order to win statewide, that needs to be done again.  


District 5 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Arenac County





Adams Twp 180 92 274 88 65.69% 33.58%
Arenac Twp 192 233 433 -41 44.34% 53.81%
Au Gres 257 202 468 55 54.91% 43.16%
Au Gres Twp 306 248 560 58 54.64% 44.29%
Clayton Twp 202 245 458 -43 44.10% 53.49%
Deep River Twp 507 528 1052 -21 48.19% 50.19%
Lincoln Twp 228 183 417 45 54.68% 43.88%
Mason Twp 187 171 360 16 51.94% 47.50%
Moffatt Twp 354 300 667 54 53.07% 44.98%
Omer 43 74 119 -31 36.13% 62.18%
Sims Twp 379 281 666 98 56.91% 42.19%
Standish 307 251 571 56 53.77% 43.96%
Standish Twp 423 478 914 -55 46.28% 52.30%
Turner Twp 146 118 268 28 54.48% 44.03%
Whitney Twp 346 265 614 81 56.35% 43.16%
Total 4057 3669 7841 388 51.74% 46.79%







Bay County





Auburn 635 483 1132 152 56.10% 42.67%
Bangor Twp 3749 4115 7932 -366 47.26% 51.88%
Bay City 5029 8773 13949 -3744 36.05% 62.89%
Beaver Twp 797 635 1448 162 55.04% 43.85%
Essexville 906 1062 1992 -156 45.48% 53.31%
Frankenlust Twp 1370 718 2105 652 65.08% 34.11%
Fraser Twp 801 863 1694 -62 47.28% 50.94%
Garfield Twp 455 445 919 10 49.51% 48.42%
Gibson Twp 267 257 533 10 50.09% 48.22%
Hampton Twp 2195 2630 4889 -435 44.90% 53.79%
Kawkawlin Twp 1272 1169 2467 103 51.56% 47.39%
Merritt Twp 448 363 819 85 54.70% 44.32%
Midland 23 30 54 -7 42.59% 55.56%
Monitor Twp 3388 2882 6332 506 53.51% 45.51%
Mount Forest Twp 367 317 695 50 52.81% 45.61%
Pinconning 257 309 577 -52 44.54% 53.55%
Pinconning Twp 609 617 1237 -8 49.23% 49.88%
Portsmouth Twp 852 1060 1936 -208 44.01% 54.75%
Williams Twp 1491 1149 2671 342 55.82% 43.02%
Total 24911 27877 53381 -2966 46.67% 52.22%







Genesee County





Argentine Twp 1871 1502 3422 369 54.68% 43.89%
Atlas Twp 2655 1978 4670 677 56.85% 42.36%
Burton 4834 8348 13344 -3514 36.23% 62.56%
Clayton Twp 1991 2197 4240 -206 46.96% 51.82%
Clio 403 654 1069 -251 37.70% 61.18%
Davison 1004 1620 2659 -616 37.76% 60.93%
Davison Twp 4628 5457 10182 -829 45.45% 53.59%
Fenton 2809 2751 5630 58 49.89% 48.86%
Fenton Twp 5280 3786 9143 1494 57.75% 41.41%
Flint  4111 35630 40018 -31519 10.27% 89.03%
Flint Twp 4268 10463 14838 -6195 28.76% 70.51%
Flushing 2328 2476 4833 -148 48.17% 51.23%
Flushing Twp 2842 3078 5980 -236 47.53% 51.47%
Forest Twp 1114 1371 2513 -257 44.33% 54.56%
Gaines Twp 1763 1987 3781 -224 46.63% 52.55%
Genesee Twp 3122 6636 9898 -3514 31.54% 67.04%
Grand Blanc 2006 2261 4302 -255 46.63% 52.56%
Grand Blanc Twp 8785 10565 19502 -1780 45.05% 54.17%
Linden  1181 951 2149 230 54.96% 44.25%
Montrose 282 419 719 -137 39.22% 58.28%
Montrose Twp 1233 1647 2923 -414 42.18% 56.35%
Mount Morris 324 848 1192 -524 27.18% 71.14%
Mount Morris Twp 1919 7716 9693 -5797 19.80% 79.60%
Mundy Twp 3818 4446 8340 -628 45.78% 53.31%
Richfield Twp 1956 2637 4645 -681 42.11% 56.77%
Swartz Creek 1290 1798 3122 -508 41.32% 57.59%
Thetford Twp 1339 2072 3473 -733 38.55% 59.66%
Vienna Twp 2654 3711 6430 -1057 41.28% 57.71%
Total 71810 129005 202710 -57195 35.42% 63.64%







Iosco County





Alabaster Twp 183 118 304 65 60.20% 38.82%
Au Sable Twp 478 520 1015 -42 47.09% 51.23%
Baldwin Twp 509 429 945 80 53.86% 45.40%
Burleigh Twp 151 183 339 -32 44.54% 53.98%
East Tawas 780 659 1457 121 53.53% 45.23%
Grant Twp 366 394 768 -28 47.66% 51.30%
Oscoda Twp 1861 1690 3608 171 51.58% 46.84%
Plainfield Twp 981 955 1947 26 50.39% 49.05%
Reno Twp 169 145 316 24 53.48% 45.89%
Sherman Twp 136 117 261 19 52.11% 44.83%
Tawas City 465 366 839 99 55.42% 43.62%
Tawas Twp 539 380 932 159 57.83% 40.77%
Whittemore 78 98 188 -20 41.49% 52.13%
Wilber Twp 233 188 425 45 54.82% 44.24%
Total 6929 6242 13344 687 51.93% 46.78%







Saginaw County (part)





Blumfield Twp 868 303 1183 565 73.37% 25.61%
Bridgeport Twp 1861 3391 5303 -1530 35.09% 63.94%
Buena Vista Twp 494 3580 4092 -3086 12.07% 87.49%
Carrollton Twp 952 1754 2746 -802 34.67% 63.87%
Saginaw 3736 16788 20724 -13052 18.03% 81.01%
Saginaw Twp 1 476 772 1259 -296 37.81% 61.32%
Saginaw Twp 2 702 487 1202 215 58.40% 40.52%
Saginaw Twp 3 629 551 1186 78 53.04% 46.46%
Saginaw Twp 4 508 420 938 88 54.16% 44.78%
Saginaw Twp 5 856 842 1710 14 50.06% 49.24%
Saginaw Twp 6 940 822 1778 118 52.87% 46.23%
Saginaw Twp 7 982 936 1938 46 50.67% 48.30%
Saginaw Twp 8 553 503 1064 50 51.97% 47.27%
Saginaw Twp 9 900 679 1593 221 56.50% 42.62%
Saginaw Twp 10 734 895 1645 -161 44.62% 54.41%
Saginaw Twp 11 498 880 1393 -382 35.75% 63.17%
Saginaw Twp 12 668 630 1308 38 51.07% 48.17%
Spaulding Twp 455 631 1100 -176 41.36% 57.36%
Zilwaukee 402 458 866 -56 46.42% 52.89%
Zilwaukee Twp 23 25 49 -2 46.94% 51.02%
Total 17237 35347 53077 -18110 32.48% 66.60%







Tuscola County (part)





Arbela Twp 735 758 1520 -23 48.36% 49.87%
Denmark Twp 1130 496 1641 634 68.86% 30.23%
Gilford Twp 274 140 420 134 65.24% 33.33%
Millington Twp 1143 976 2143 167 53.34% 45.54%
Tuscola Twp 749 382 1138 367 65.82% 33.57%
Vassar  565 539 1117 26 50.58% 48.25%
Vassar Twp (part) 881 863 1767 18 49.86% 48.84%
Total 5477 4154 9746 1323 56.20% 42.62%







Total All 130421 206294 340099 -75873 38.35% 60.66%


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