Tuesday, July 05, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 9 (SD-09)

State Senate - District 9
Current Reps – Steve Bieda (D-Warren)

2010 Results - Old District (9th)
Steve Bieda - 42039
Michael Ennis - 33258

While most of Macomb County grew in population, much of this district slightly shrunk in population. The old 9th consisted of Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp/Grosse Pointe Shores (Macomb Portion), St Clair Shores, and Warren. The new district drops St Clair Shores and Lake Twp and picks up Roseville and part of Clinton Twp. Warren is blue and getting bluer. Eastpointe is now the most democrat place in Macomb County with its minority growth, edging out Mt Clemens and Roseville. This is a blue sink district, but it is compact. The vote spreads here are estimates, and may be off some, because Clinton Twp's partisan numbers are not evened out throughout the township. There's some near 60% GOP areas and 80% dem areas in that township. Interestingly, Bieda lost Fraser (and St Clair Shores).  I'm not sure if that's just 2010 or personal strengths/weaknesses of candidates.

I expect this district to be competitive, but only in primaries. Warren's long been a democrat stronghold, Snyder and Engler's wins notwithstanding. South Warren's been dem forever. North Warren is more competitive, but has been dem leaning for at least 12 years. Sander Levin's represented that area for years. Roseville and Eastpointe have been dem forever. That's David Bonior and Switalski's base. This is a blue sink district, and is expected to stay with the dems barring a major disaster campaign on their side.




McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1431 2462 3893 -1031 36.76% 63.24% -26.48%
Clinton Twp (1/3) 6974 9148 16122 -2174 43.26% 56.74% -13.48%
Eastpointe 4670 11182 15852 -6512 29.46% 70.54% -41.08%
Fraser 3601 4161 7762 -560 46.39% 53.61% -7.21%
Roseville 7679 13739 21418 -6060 35.85% 64.15% -28.29%
Warren 24006 36901 60907 -12895 39.41% 60.59% -21.17%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 48361 77593 125954 -29232 38.40% 61.60% -23.21%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1613 2312 3925 -699 41.10% 58.90% -17.81%
Clinton Twp (1/3) 7700 7868 15568 -168 49.46% 50.54% -1.08%
Eastpointe 5838 9766 15604 -3928 37.41% 62.59% -25.17%
Fraser 3893 3959 7852 -66 49.58% 50.42% -0.84%
Roseville 8660 12738 21398 -4078 40.47% 59.53% -19.06%
Warren 26991 34697 61688 -7706 43.75% 56.25% -12.49%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 54695 71340 126035 -16645 43.40% 56.60% -13.21%








Last St Senate GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 899 1399 2298 -500 39.12% 60.88% -21.76%
Clinton Twp (1/3) 5091 4857 9948 234 51.18% 48.82% 2.35%
Eastpointe 3075 6116 9191 -3041 33.46% 66.54% -33.09%
Fraser 2512 2196 4708 316 53.36% 46.64% 6.71%
Roseville 5507 6610 12117 -1103 45.45% 54.55% -9.10%
Warren 14698 21803 36501 -7105 40.27% 59.73% -19.47%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 31782 42981 74763 -11199 42.51% 57.49% -14.98%

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