Tuesday, July 05, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 8 (SD-08)

State Senate - District 8
Current Reps – Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (11th)
Jack Brandenburg - 65403
Jim Ayers - 34166

Macomb County gained population over 2000. Previously, it had 3 districts. Now it has 3 1/2.  Most of this district is descended from the old 11th district, which covered all of Northern Macomb County, basically North of M-59. It also covered Mt Clemens and Harrison Township. Mt Clemens is a blue sink, but small enough to be offset by the rest of the county.

Brandenburg helps out his colleagues a little here as this district is slightly more blue than the old 11th. He drops some republican areas like Macomb Twp, Richmond, Memphis, and Armada Twp. He also drops competitive, but GOP leaning New Baltimore. He picks up competitive Utica and competitive but democrat leaning St Clair Shores, and strongly Republican Lake Twp/Grosse Point Shores (Macomb Portion). Brandenburg is no stranger to St Clair Shores, representing that area as a state rep. He won St Clair Shores three times. That's impressive, as Bush lost it twice, and McCain lost it as well. McCain still won this district, although very narrowly. Bush didn't have a problem with this district.

McCain won the new district by about 400 votes. Bush won it by 13000. GOP state senate candidates in 2010 won it by over 20,000. Most of the 20,000 was from Brandenburg. Somewhat surprisingly, Michael Ennis beat Steve Bieda in St Clair Shores. I'm not sure if that was due to 2010 being that kind of year, or personal strength/weakness by candidates.

This district is likely safe for Brandenburg, although could be competitive if it opens, because nothing is easy in Macomb County.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bruce Twp 2824 2021 4845 803 58.29% 41.71% 16.57%
Chesterfield Twp 10019 11050 21069 -1031 47.55% 52.45% -4.89%
Harrison Twp 6610 6726 13336 -116 49.57% 50.43% -0.87%
Lake Twp 27 13 40 14 67.50% 32.50% 35.00%
Lenox Twp 1880 2369 4249 -489 44.25% 55.75% -11.51%
Mt Clemens 2393 5171 7564 -2778 31.64% 68.36% -36.73%
Ray Twp 1296 780 2076 516 62.43% 37.57% 24.86%
Shelby Twp 20607 16877 37484 3730 54.98% 45.02% 9.95%
St Clair Shores 16098 18531 34629 -2433 46.49% 53.51% -7.03%
Utica 1099 1228 2327 -129 47.23% 52.77% -5.54%
Washington 7741 5392 13133 2349 58.94% 41.06% 17.89%
Total 70594 70158 140752 436 50.15% 49.85% 0.31%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bruce Twp 2976 1731 4707 1245 63.22% 36.78% 26.45%
Chesterfield Twp 10533 8853 19386 1680 54.33% 45.67% 8.67%
Harrison Twp 6946 5906 12852 1040 54.05% 45.95% 8.09%
Lake Twp 33 15 48 18 68.75% 31.25% 37.50%
Lenox Twp 1890 1746 3636 144 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Mt Clemens 2766 4419 7185 -1653 38.50% 61.50% -23.01%
Ray Twp 1315 707 2022 608 65.03% 34.97% 30.07%
Shelby Twp 20921 13452 34373 7469 60.86% 39.14% 21.73%
St Clair Shores 17512 18088 35600 -576 49.19% 50.81% -1.62%
Utica 1147 1077 2224 70 51.57% 48.43% 3.15%
Washington 7526 4300 11826 3226 63.64% 36.36% 27.28%
Total 73565 60294 133859 13271 54.96% 45.04% 9.91%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bruce Twp 2423 1001 3424 1422 70.77% 29.23% 41.53%
Chesterfield Twp 8154 4880 13034 3274 62.56% 37.44% 25.12%
Harrison Twp 5564 3298 8862 2266 62.78% 37.22% 25.57%
Lake Twp 23 8 31 15 74.19% 25.81% 48.39%
Lenox Twp 1476 1082 2558 394 57.70% 42.30% 15.40%
Mt Clemens 1902 2603 4505 -701 42.22% 57.78% -15.56%
Ray Twp 1033 372 1405 661 73.52% 26.48% 47.05%
Shelby Twp 16834 7360 24194 9474 69.58% 30.42% 39.16%
St Clair Shores 12051 10517 22568 1534 53.40% 46.60% 6.80%
Utica 917 575 1492 342 61.46% 38.54% 22.92%
Washington 6593 2553 9146 4040 72.09% 27.91% 44.17%
Total 56970 34249 91219 22721 62.45% 37.55% 24.91%

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