Sunday, April 03, 2011

Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map part 3 of 3

This is part 3 of 3 in my attempt at a 10-4 GOP redistricting map. I'll fully admit that I'm testing APOL standards on district shapes and county breaks with this. Part one is here. They cover districts 1-5. Part two covers 6-9. Part three covers 10-14.

District 10 - Candice Miller will absolutely hate this map for good reason. She had a safe district. This one is a lot tougher and a swing district, but I think she's strong enough to win this without a huge battle, now that David Bonior's been gone for ten years. The current district is North Macomb and all of the thumb. It went 56.23% for Bush and 49.84% for McCain (won narrowly). The old 10th district went often GOP at top of the ticket, and Bonior (then pro-life) downticket. Bonior flipped on that issue as his price to get into dem leadership.
Dan's proposed 10th District

I split Macomb into east west. The bad news is Roseville, St Clair Shores, Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens is now here. That's the price for an attempt on a 10-4 map. I removed Lapeer County, and replaced it with Tuscola. Northeast Macomb isn't as good as Northwest and it shows. The proposed district two party vote went 52.7% for the winner both times. This attempt at a 10-4 map is a 9-5-1 map if Miller steps down to run statewide. That's the gamble with splitting the blue sinks.

District 11 - McCotter's map is tough to work with without risking others. The current district is on borrowed time. I think McCotter's Livonia and Catholic Central High strength saves him. If he didn't have strong local strength, this district would have flipped. I really this current district for the next ten years though. It went 53.75% for Obama (34000 vote sink) at the top of the ticket and 51.97% for Bush (18000 vote spread). There's some big blue sinks here though in Westland, Wayne, Garden City, Van Buren, Part of Dearborn Heights, and Belleville. I removed all of them to either Dingell or Clarke except Redford which I had to keep due to space. I removed an automatic 12000-25000 vote sink. Redford's a big one and getting bigger, but I picked that poison instead of Westland because Glenn Anderson is a very strong democrat from there. Westland had to go, because Anderson would give McCotter a very difficult race. I had to give another blue sink in West Bloomfield. Thats a 5-9K vote sink, but still half of what he had before. I also gave him all of Waterford (swings) and the base areas Independence, Commerce, and Rose Twps from Oakland County from the Peters district. I also gave Salem Twp from Washtenaw County.

Dan's proposed 11th District

This one isn't easy, but Obama got 52.15% (16000 sink) of the two party vote and Bush 55.08% (37000 spread). It's much more friendly than the previous district.

District 12 - The current 12th, along with the 9th, I eliminated. It was Levin's Southeast Oakland/South Macomb district. The current 12th is a mix of Levin's district and Conyers West Detroit district, although it's more North/South. It's more like the old 14th district. It's a voting rights act district that is 56.5% black. The difference is that now with Detroit's population loss, it's likely that there will be two black districts, but this will be almost as much centered on the suburbs as Detroit.
Dan's proposed 12th District

The proposed 12th takes in Northern Detroit, Highland Park, The Grosse Pointes, and Harper Woods in Wayne County, along with the City of Southfield, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Royal Oak City and Township, and the rest of Southeast Oakland County and a small part of Madison Heights. I removed Dearborn and the downriver portions.

District 13 - This was Kilpatrick's district, and now Hansen Clarke's. It is still a Voting Rights Act district, although this one is 52.1% black and 8.8% Hispanic. I removed most of downriver here too outside of Ecorse, River Rouge, Melvindale, and Northern Lincoln Park.

Dan's Proposed 13th District

This district is kept within Wayne County. I thought about picking off Eastpointe and part of South Warren in Macomb, but while I'm stretching the APOL standards here, I didn't want to completely disregard them on everything. I also wanted to make sure Dingell's district got to Ann Arbor, which means I needed as much as I could get from Wayne County here. I added all of Dearborn Heights, Westland and Garden City (So Glenn Anderson wouldn't challenge McCotter), Inkster, Wayne, and Romulus.

District 14 - This is similar to the current 15th District for John Dingell. It is intended to give him as much of a blue sink as possible to protect McCotter and Walberg. The current 15th has most of Eastern Washtenaw County, Monroe, and Southern Wayne County.

Dan's Proposed 14th District

The main thing here is that I replaced Monroe County with Scio Township, almost all of Downriver, and the rest of Dearborn. It's more of a blue sink than the previous map.

These districts aren't perfect because I can't get things down to the exact number with the software. My worst discrepency on these is 3000 votes over and 2000 votes under. What I did figure out is that a 10-4 map is possible. I'm probably going to try for the best 9-5 I can do next and compare it with this and see if I think the best strategy for the GOP is to go 10-4 or 9-5. I'm not sure yet. It's a tough go because it's tough to expand some of these districts in any direction without danger due to either a strong candidate on the dem side (Barcia or Anderson), or a big blue sink (Bay, Saginaw, Westland, Pontiac, Kalamazoo).

The question for the GOP is whether it is worth the risk of a 10-4 map like this (and the court fight) or whether it is better to take the 9-5 and try and shore up McCotter, Benishek, and Walberg.

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