Strategic August primary voting

New Poll on the senate race now that it's narrowed down some.

Also, I'm probably going to get an earful on this post.

Some people confuse presidential and regular primaries. They work slightly differently. In Presidential primaries, you choose a ballot and publicly declare it. It's recorded and public record. It's still an open primary, but the party ballot is not secret, although the actual vote is. In regular August (or July if absentee) primaries, you get your ballot and vote for one side and the nonpartisan races. Ballots are not declared in August.

Do I vote in the Republican primary here in Livingston County because I'm a Republican, or because that's where the contests are held? The answer is because that's where the contests are held. In this county, there are no primaries on the democrat side. That will mean that the democrats are likely going to vote in our primary. As we're an open primary (although you must vote one side of the ballot). I've only crossvoted in one primary, back in 2002 when almost all of my races were unopposed on the R side, and we had a primary on the dem side for governor (and I was confident that Posthumus would demolish the jackass Joe Schwarz). I was hoping to stop Granholm and voted for the easiest dem to beat. Blanchard.

Since then, I've stayed on my side, and certainly will be doing that again this primary as there are a ton of contests on my side, and none on the dems (who have no primary opposition). When there's several contests on both sides (2010), I'll stay on my own being in Livingston County. I only go for mischief if I don't have to skip too many races.

If I lived in Warren, particularly HD-28, I'd be voting a democrat ballot, as Warren is a democrat stronghold. I'd vote my normal way in November, but I understand how things are and have a major philosophy. Take the best you can get in that area. Either that means the easiest opponent, or one who has one or two issues of agreement. In that district, almost any dem will win, so I'll go for the moderate. Jon Switalski and Lesia Liss are both economic liberals in an economic liberal area. However, Liss is at least reasonable on the 2nd Amendment issue and life issue and isn't for killing babies. She's more of the old school democrats that most of us in auto families grew up with. Switalski is a down the line lib. I'd take what I can get there. Lesia Liss would have my vote in the primary, and Steven Klusek would have it in the general.

That's similar to the 2002 John Dingell vs Lynn Rivers strategy. Gun owners and Auto Industry interests encouraged the republican members of their organizations to vote for Dingell in the primary because he was better than Rivers. Both are liberal, but you'll occasionally get something good with Dingell.

I'm sure many democrats think the same way here in Livingston County in reverse. Primaries are often when the elections are decided, especially downticket. Not many democrats win as democrats in Livingston County.

July 9th is the last day to register in the primary.

State House Redistricting - District 28 (HD-28)

State House - District 28
Current Rep – Lesia Liss (D - Warren), Jon Switalski (D-Warren)

Declared Candidates:
Dem - Jon Switalski (D-Warren)
GOP - Steven Klusek (R-Warren)

Update 8-30-2012 - Switalski won a bitter primary. Hopefully there's some fallout that goes Kusek's way.

Update 5-25-2012 - Interesting one on one battle here between two incumbents.


2010 Results - Old District (28th)
Lesia Liss - 12,389
Marc Goodson - 7,281

Old District 25th
Jon Switalski - 14,891
Sean Clark - 13,167

This district changed a bit, but still is entirely in Warren and Center Line, completely surrounded by Warren. However, instead of being divided North and South, it's now more East and West. The new district is Western and Central Warren and Center Line.

It's still democrat, although possibly slightly less so than before. It's still most likely safe for democrats and will be getting more so as more blacks move into South Warren. Dave's Redistricting estimate is about 60% for Obama. I don't know where Liss or Switalski live in Warren, but poster "Conservative First" from The Western Right thinks they may be in the same district. We'll find out in May.

Update 5-1-2012 - The Western Right called this. This is going to be a member vs member primary.