Saturday, October 29, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 35 (SD-35)

State Senate - District 35
Current Rep – Darwin Booher (R-Evart)


2010 Results - Old District (35th)
Darwin Booher - 56,318
Roger Dunigan - 30,819

This is by area one of the largest districts in the state. The old district covered 11 counties, and the new one has twelve.

The old district has Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. The new district drops Clare and Mecosta Counties to the 33rd. It picks up Ogemaw and Crawford Counties from the 35th, and Mason County from the 34th. Partisanship remains close. This is a slightly republican leaning district at the top of the ticket, more so downticket. It's still one I wouldn't take for granted. Up North is extremely independent.

Benzie, Manistee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and sometime Mason Counties are all very competitive. Lake County leans democrat. Missaukee, Wexford, and Osceola counties are solidly republican. Crawford, and Kalkaska lean republican but are occasionally competitive when a Stupak type runs. Missaukee County is the 2nd most Republican area in the state behind Ottawa County. Like Ottawa and Northern Allegan County, it's a Dutch area.

Overall, I'd usually consider Obama numbers a worst case scenario. That is not true in North Michigan. Stupak numbers are the worst case scenario. Inland areas and sunrise coast areas Up North are very open to voting for perceived social conservative democrats. Joel Sheltrown won Missaukee County. On paper, that's less likely than a democrat winning in Livingston County (hasn't been done since 1986 or 1990). Certain candidates can make this competitive. That's why I only slightly rate this republican leaning. The question is whether the Chicago retirees and independents out west who voted for a "Dan Scripps" would be acceptable with a Joel Sheltrown. Dan Scripps was defeated in a close re-election, but won big in 08. He sold well on the Lake Michigan Coast, but labor friendly Roscommon and Ogemaw Counties are different. Those five competitive counties I mentioned are different. If the dems find the right medium, I'd keep an eye on this as a darkhorse district.

Overall, redistricting I think made this district more difficult, not by partisan numbers, but by putting Joel Sheltrown in this district. That's better than keeping his district in the Alpena district, but he's a strong candidate if he runs.

I'd call this slightly GOP leaning overall if open. Booher makes it a strong lean. Sheltrown makes this a darkhorse.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Benzie 4687 5451 10138 -764 46.23% 53.77% -7.54%
Crawford 3561 3441 7002 120 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Kalkaska 4527 3780 8307 747 54.50% 45.50% 8.99%
Lake 2269 2919 5188 -650 43.74% 56.26% -12.53%
Leelanau 6938 7355 14293 -417 48.54% 51.46% -2.92%
Manistee 5510 7235 12745 -1725 43.23% 56.77% -13.53%
Mason 7147 7817 14964 -670 47.76% 52.24% -4.48%
Missaukee 4469 2898 7367 1571 60.66% 39.34% 21.32%
Ogemaw 5133 5391 10524 -258 48.77% 51.23% -2.45%
Osceola 5973 4855 10828 1118 55.16% 44.84% 10.33%
Roscommon 6727 7082 13809 -355 48.71% 51.29% -2.57%
Wexford 8044 7379 15423 665 52.16% 47.84% 4.31%
Total 64985 65603 130588 -618 49.76% 50.24% -0.47%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Benzie 5284 4343 9627 941 54.89% 45.11% 9.77%
Crawford 4017 3126 7143 891 56.24% 43.76% 12.47%
Kalkaska 5084 3189 8273 1895 61.45% 38.55% 22.91%
Lake 2503 2675 5178 -172 48.34% 51.66% -3.32%
Leelanau 7733 6048 13781 1685 56.11% 43.89% 12.23%
Manistee 6295 6272 12567 23 50.09% 49.91% 0.18%
Mason 8124 6333 14457 1791 56.19% 43.81% 12.39%
Missaukee 5055 2319 7374 2736 68.55% 31.45% 37.10%
Ogemaw 5454 5215 10669 239 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Osceola 6599 4467 11066 2132 59.63% 40.37% 19.27%
Roscommon 7364 6810 14174 554 51.95% 48.05% 3.91%
Wexford 8966 6034 15000 2932 59.77% 40.23% 19.55%
Total 72478 56831 129309 15647 56.05% 43.95% 12.10%








Last St Sen race GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Benzie 4185 2942 7127 1243 58.72% 41.28% 17.44%
Crawford

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kalkaska 3700 1699 5399 2001 68.53% 31.47% 37.06%
Lake 1982 1489 3471 493 57.10% 42.90% 14.20%
Leelanau 6323 4580 10903 1743 57.99% 42.01% 15.99%
Manistee 4901 3692 8593 1209 57.03% 42.97% 14.07%
Mason

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Missaukee 3889 1175 5064 2714 76.80% 23.20% 53.59%
Ogemaw

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Osceola 5422 1949 7371 3473 73.56% 26.44% 47.12%
Roscommon 5673 3570 9243 2103 61.38% 38.62% 22.75%
Wexford 6928 2910 9838 4018 70.42% 29.58% 40.84%
Total 43003 24006 67009 18997 64.17% 35.83% 28.35%

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