Thursday, December 08, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 47 (HD-47)

State House - District 47
Current Rep - Cindy Denby (R-Handy Twp)

Candidates
GOP - Cindy Denby (R-Handy Twp),
Dem - Shawn Lowe Desai (D-Howell)

Update 5-26-2012 - We have both a primary and a general in one of my old districts. Harold Melton is a GOP activist who is running. Cindy's a deceptively strong incumbent. She's not a braggart and has a more low key personality that some mistake as weakness. She's a hard worker, and shouldn't have a major problem in the primary, even if Harold is a strong challenger. That's not a shot at Harold, but Cindy is probably the 3rd best campaigner in the county behind Joe Hune and Mike Rogers. Desai has money, but so did Post, and Desai has an even harder district than Post did.

Update 8-30-2012 - Cindy won the primary. 

2010 Results - Old District (47th)
Cindy Denby - 22,713
Garry Post - 10,001

This is one of two Livingston County based districts. It makes some minor changes and contracted due to population growth. The old district dropped Putnam and Hamburg Townships giving them to Bill Rogers. The new district picked up Marion and Oceola Townships from Bill Rogers. The rest of the district stayed the same.

The district actually got safer as Putnam and Hamburg Townships are two of the more marginal GOP areas in the county. I don't think that was due to partisan reasons as I never heard Bill Rogers complain about the new district in public or private, but due to geography. The 47th is more Howell/Fowlerville based, rather than Brighton based. Marion and Oceola Townships are more identified with the Howell area than the Brighton area. Hamburg is mostly the Pinckney and Brighton areas, and Putnam Township contains Pinckney. Redistricting keeps the areas mostly intact, outside of Southernmost Marion Twp. Cindy shouldn't have trouble in the new district, and neither should the next GOP nominee when it opens up.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Cohoctah Twp 1046 652 1698 394 61.60% 38.40% 23.20%
Conway Twp 956 689 1645 267 58.12% 41.88% 16.23%
Deerfield Twp 1329 912 2241 417 59.30% 40.70% 18.61%
Handy Twp 1922 1729 3651 193 52.64% 47.36% 5.29%
Hartland Twp 4689 3087 7776 1602 60.30% 39.70% 20.60%
Howell 2068 2160 4228 -92 48.91% 51.09% -2.18%
Howell Twp 2022 1459 3481 563 58.09% 41.91% 16.17%
Iosco Twp 1090 756 1846 334 59.05% 40.95% 18.09%
Marion Twp 3302 2169 5471 1133 60.35% 39.65% 20.71%
Oceola Twp 3694 2428 6122 1266 60.34% 39.66% 20.68%
Tyrone Twp 3362 2236 5598 1126 60.06% 39.94% 20.11%
Unadilla Twp 860 811 1671 49 51.47% 48.53% 2.93%
Total 26340 19088 45428 7252 57.98% 42.02% 15.96%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Cohoctah Twp 1091 548 1639 543 66.56% 33.44% 33.13%
Conway Twp 1025 540 1565 485 65.50% 34.50% 30.99%
Deerfield Twp 1449 831 2280 618 63.55% 36.45% 27.11%
Handy Twp 2056 1225 3281 831 62.66% 37.34% 25.33%
Hartland Twp 4925 2329 7254 2596 67.89% 32.11% 35.79%
Howell 2499 1751 4250 748 58.80% 41.20% 17.60%
Howell Twp 2202 1134 3336 1068 66.01% 33.99% 32.01%
Iosco Twp 1071 468 1539 603 69.59% 30.41% 39.18%
Marion Twp 3137 1600 4737 1537 66.22% 33.78% 32.45%
Oceola Twp 3513 1768 5281 1745 66.52% 33.48% 33.04%
Tyrone Twp 3560 1917 5477 1643 65.00% 35.00% 30.00%
Unadilla Twp 919 641 1560 278 58.91% 41.09% 17.82%
Total 27447 14752 42199 12695 65.04% 34.96% 30.08%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Cohoctah Twp 819 291 1110 528 73.78% 26.22% 47.57%
Conway Twp 852 259 1111 593 76.69% 23.31% 53.38%
Deerfield Twp 1068 411 1479 657 72.21% 27.79% 44.42%
Handy Twp 1624 571 2195 1053 73.99% 26.01% 47.97%
Hartland Twp 3916 1328 5244 2588 74.68% 25.32% 49.35%
Howell 1624 871 2495 753 65.09% 34.91% 30.18%
Howell Twp 1632 571 2203 1061 74.08% 25.92% 48.16%
Iosco Twp 880 299 1179 581 74.64% 25.36% 49.28%
Marion Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Oceola Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Tyrone Twp 2609 1014 3623 1595 72.01% 27.99% 44.02%
Unadilla Twp 728 380 1108 348 65.70% 34.30% 31.41%
Total 15752 5995 21747 9757 72.43% 27.57% 44.87%

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