Dr Henry Vaupel announces run for state rep

From WHMI:

2/4/13 - A local official is looking to move into the political arena in 2014. Dr. Henry Vaupel of Fowlerville has officially announced his candidacy for Michigan’s 47th District House of Representatives seat. He is the current Handy Township Supervisor and the founder of a local veterinary clinic. The seat is currently held by Republican Cindy Denby, who is term limited. Dr. Vaupel says he brings extensive knowledge of his community to the race and would look to support legislation that grows the economy of Michigan, and Livingston County. He adds that any polices he would bring to Lansing would reflect his strong family and conservative values. District 47 encompasses Cohoctah, Conway, Deerfield, Handy, Hartland, Howell, Iosco, Marion, Oceola, Tyrone and Unadilla Townships as well as the City of Howell, the Village of Fowlerville and a portion of Fenton City. More information about Vaupel can be found through the link below. 

I think there's a geographic advantage with the Fowlerville area in regards to this district, despite more population in the Hartland/Tyrone area. Western Livingston has a long history for not only voting for their own, but getting out the vote in order to do so. Joe Hune set the standard on this in his 2002 then major upset. He worked hard and got Western Livingston behind him. Cindy Denby was Handy Township Supervisor and was also a staffer for Joe Hune before taking Joe's spot. Dr Hank Vaupel is currently Handy Township Supervisor and is now running for Joe and Cindy's old position.

Vaupel is a good guy and a long time supporter of the party and is probably best known for founding the Kern Road Veterinarian clinic.  He will certainly be a contender for the position. We'll see who else is in.

"People who live this way"

The dems found someone to run for Cindy Denby's seat. I can tell already that he isn't ready. I really don't want to knock this guy too much this early, but Cindy's opponent has a long way to go before the big leagues. He wants to be the next Joe Hune, but he's not, and there's a telling quote that explains why. Unless attitudes changes quick, he's already lost.

From the Argus

Democrat Shawn Lowe Desai graduated from Michigan State University last year with an economics degree, but sought work in manual labor upon entering the work force.
Desai, 23, said his experience on the ground floor of TRW Automotive in Fowlerville makes him the perfect candidate to face state Rep. Cindy Denby, R-Handy Township, on the Nov. 6 ballot

And here's the quote.

"I have always wanted to be a part of the American experience, the working-class experience, so it was important for me to get some experience and really understand what life was like for people who live this way," Desai said.

Where's the facepalm pictures when I need it. The difference between Joe Hune and this guy is simple. Joe actually grew up working class and understands it. His parents will make sure he doesn't forget his roots, either.  Cindy Denby got her experience as a small business owner. This guy on the other hand went to Detroit Country Day and then patronizes us with that comment. "People who live this way."

My family is made up of "people who live this way."  They live the same way as everybody else. "People who live this way" work hard and go home to their families. A large number work long hours so family time is extra important to them. They pay the bills just like small business owners like myself, white collar workers, and people who send their kids to Detroit Country Day. Some love their job and some can't stand it, but it's hard work like anything else. "People who live this way" aren't alien folks who are "Exhibit A" for some research project.

Quotes and attitudes like that are why the democrats are losing the votes of working class voters, especially white ethnics who were the backbone of the party. Put down the Thomas Frank book and quit patronizing the people whose votes you need to have any chance in Hell Michigan of winning. "People who live this way" aren't stupid. Treat them the same as you would your fellow Country Day alums and don't big-time them. You may learn something.

State House Redistricting - District 47 (HD-47)

State House - District 47
Current Rep - Cindy Denby (R-Handy Twp)

Candidates
GOP - Cindy Denby (R-Handy Twp),
Dem - Shawn Lowe Desai (D-Howell)

Update 5-26-2012 - We have both a primary and a general in one of my old districts. Harold Melton is a GOP activist who is running. Cindy's a deceptively strong incumbent. She's not a braggart and has a more low key personality that some mistake as weakness. She's a hard worker, and shouldn't have a major problem in the primary, even if Harold is a strong challenger. That's not a shot at Harold, but Cindy is probably the 3rd best campaigner in the county behind Joe Hune and Mike Rogers. Desai has money, but so did Post, and Desai has an even harder district than Post did.

Update 8-30-2012 - Cindy won the primary. 

2010 Results - Old District (47th)
Cindy Denby - 22,713
Garry Post - 10,001

This is one of two Livingston County based districts. It makes some minor changes and contracted due to population growth. The old district dropped Putnam and Hamburg Townships giving them to Bill Rogers. The new district picked up Marion and Oceola Townships from Bill Rogers. The rest of the district stayed the same.

The district actually got safer as Putnam and Hamburg Townships are two of the more marginal GOP areas in the county. I don't think that was due to partisan reasons as I never heard Bill Rogers complain about the new district in public or private, but due to geography. The 47th is more Howell/Fowlerville based, rather than Brighton based. Marion and Oceola Townships are more identified with the Howell area than the Brighton area. Hamburg is mostly the Pinckney and Brighton areas, and Putnam Township contains Pinckney. Redistricting keeps the areas mostly intact, outside of Southernmost Marion Twp. Cindy shouldn't have trouble in the new district, and neither should the next GOP nominee when it opens up.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	1046	652	1698	394	61.60%	38.40%	23.20%
Conway Twp	956	689	1645	267	58.12%	41.88%	16.23%
Deerfield Twp	1329	912	2241	417	59.30%	40.70%	18.61%
Handy Twp	1922	1729	3651	193	52.64%	47.36%	5.29%
Hartland Twp	4689	3087	7776	1602	60.30%	39.70%	20.60%
Howell	2068	2160	4228	-92	48.91%	51.09%	-2.18%
Howell Twp	2022	1459	3481	563	58.09%	41.91%	16.17%
Iosco Twp	1090	756	1846	334	59.05%	40.95%	18.09%
Marion Twp	3302	2169	5471	1133	60.35%	39.65%	20.71%
Oceola Twp	3694	2428	6122	1266	60.34%	39.66%	20.68%
Tyrone Twp	3362	2236	5598	1126	60.06%	39.94%	20.11%
Unadilla Twp	860	811	1671	49	51.47%	48.53%	2.93%
Total	26340	19088	45428	7252	57.98%	42.02%	15.96%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	1091	548	1639	543	66.56%	33.44%	33.13%
Conway Twp	1025	540	1565	485	65.50%	34.50%	30.99%
Deerfield Twp	1449	831	2280	618	63.55%	36.45%	27.11%
Handy Twp	2056	1225	3281	831	62.66%	37.34%	25.33%
Hartland Twp	4925	2329	7254	2596	67.89%	32.11%	35.79%
Howell	2499	1751	4250	748	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Howell Twp	2202	1134	3336	1068	66.01%	33.99%	32.01%
Iosco Twp	1071	468	1539	603	69.59%	30.41%	39.18%
Marion Twp	3137	1600	4737	1537	66.22%	33.78%	32.45%
Oceola Twp	3513	1768	5281	1745	66.52%	33.48%	33.04%
Tyrone Twp	3560	1917	5477	1643	65.00%	35.00%	30.00%
Unadilla Twp	919	641	1560	278	58.91%	41.09%	17.82%
Total	27447	14752	42199	12695	65.04%	34.96%	30.08%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	819	291	1110	528	73.78%	26.22%	47.57%
Conway Twp	852	259	1111	593	76.69%	23.31%	53.38%
Deerfield Twp	1068	411	1479	657	72.21%	27.79%	44.42%
Handy Twp	1624	571	2195	1053	73.99%	26.01%	47.97%
Hartland Twp	3916	1328	5244	2588	74.68%	25.32%	49.35%
Howell	1624	871	2495	753	65.09%	34.91%	30.18%
Howell Twp	1632	571	2203	1061	74.08%	25.92%	48.16%
Iosco Twp	880	299	1179	581	74.64%	25.36%	49.28%
Marion Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Oceola Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Tyrone Twp	2609	1014	3623	1595	72.01%	27.99%	44.02%
Unadilla Twp	728	380	1108	348	65.70%	34.30%	31.41%
Total	15752	5995	21747	9757	72.43%	27.57%	44.87%

Does Garry Post live in the 47th district or in Ann Arbor (Scio Township)?

There's an old adage. Those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Garry Post has been doing nothing but attacking Cindy Denby. I have a question of my own to Post. Do you live in the district, or do you live in Scio Township (Between Ann Arbor and Dexter) in Washtenaw County? Go home, Garry.

Garry Post got my guard up when I saw two different homes listed as his address on the campaign finance reports. One was in Scio Township. The other was in Hamburg Twp. The Ann Arbor address wasn't the company he inherited, Post Realty. That is on Maynard Street.


COALITION FOR A FAIR MICHIGAN
511681-BAL
DIRECT GARRY POST
**** HILLPOINT DR BRIGHTON
MI 48116-0000 10/01/04 $100.00 $100.00

COMM TO ELECT MARY ANDERSSON
512622-CAN
DIRECT GARRY POST
*** SOUTHWOOD CT.
REAL ESTATE MANAGER-POST REALTY ANN ARBOR
MI 48103-0000 09/17/06 $20.00 $120.00

GARRY POST FOR STATE REP
515017-CAN
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR
MANAGER-POST REALTY BRIGHTON
MI 48116-0000 07/13/10 $5,000.00 $10,697.23

GARRY POST FOR STATE REP
515017-CAN
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR
MANAGER-POST REALTY BRIGHTON
MI 48116-0000 05/03/10 $5,000.00 $5,697.23

GARRY POST FOR STATE REP
515017-CAN
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR
MANAGER-POST REALTY BRIGHTON
MI 48116-0000 05/01/10 $697.23 $697.23

JENNIFER M GRANHOLM FOR GOVERNOR
510278-GUB
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** SOUTHWOOD CT ANN ARBOR
MI 48103-9735 08/29/06 $100.00 $100.00

JOCELYN BENSON FOR SEC OF STATE
514336-CAN
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR BRIGHTON
MI 48116-5193 07/27/10 $100.00 $100.00

LIVINGSTON CO DEM COMM
001426-COU
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** SOUTHWOOD CT. ANN ARBOR
MI 48103-0000 10/04/08 $50.00 $50.00

LIVINGSTON COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMM
514998-COU
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR. BRIGHTON
MI 48116-5193 05/07/10 $50.00 $50.00

LIVINGSTON COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMM
514998-COU
DIRECT GARROD POST
**** HILLPOINT DR. BRIGHTON
MI 48116-5193 05/07/10 $40.00 $90.00
Matches 1-8 of 8

His partner, Mr. Hill (not that there's anything wrong with that), also used both address, one in Scio and the other in Hamburg. Hill used both addresses for campaign reports. Post has an Scio Township address, and works in Ann Arbor, right next to Scio Township.

Scio Township is known for big homes. This one is no different and is a half million dollar plus home. Apparently, as Post is running in the 47th instead of the 52nd district, he does not live here at this house below. The owners are listed as Garry Post and Mr. Hill. Information can be found at Scio Township's website

He supposedly lives here instead. Source - Hamburg Township. Again, both Hill and Post are the owners. 500 square foot cottage on Ore Lake.

Those pictures are online from Township Websites. Does he live in a 500 sq foot cottage using the homestead to reduce his taxes (legal), or at the giant Scio Township house at the place homesteaded by his partner, Mr. Hill?

Garry's been throwing a lot of dirt at Cindy in the campaign. Why would he be concerned about Livingston County? He's got a half million dollar property in Scio Township he can move back to when the election's over.

Garry Post doesn't know how things work

If you're going to take potshots at somebody for so called "ineffectiveness" then you better know how things work, know the rules of the game, and be able to say how you'd do things better besides vague BS.

Post took shots in a press release he sent to the media, and the story was in today's Argus. From the Argus

According to his figures, first-term Republican lawmakers on average introduced about 18 bills in the past two years, compared to Denby's seven.

The number of bills introduced don't make a rep effective. Neither do cosponsors. What they do is show what a sponsor/cosponsor feels about an issue. Nothing more, or less. The fact is this. You have a democrat house, by a big margin. That's the facts. If Cindy wants a bill passed, would it be more effective with a dem sponsor or republican sponsor providing all sides agree? A dem. Else, the bill will likely die in committee, which is the fate of most bills (unless a often nasty compromise). That's the way things work a majority of the time. Publicly, it's not Cindy's bill. In reality, it is. Those who don't know how things work, like Garry Post, do not understand that.

I feel I am campaigning on the promise of being a leader in the Legislature and not a mere follower," he said

By what? Being the heir of your mom and dad's landlord business?

Cosponsorships and sponsorships do not make you a leader and effective legislature. Good input on bills, good votes yea or nay, and being in touch with constituents do make you a good legislator. Cindy's not a braggart. That's not what she does. She shows up. She works hard, and gets things done. I've worked with her office in the past on issues even no longer being in that district. Cindy is effective. Garry Post at best has a nasty learning curve.

Livingston County Candidate Forum, September 23, 8AM

The Argus had this on their website:

Candidates for the 47th and 66th district seas in the Michigan House of Representatives will take part in a candidate forum on Sept. 23 at 8 am at the Livingston Regional M-TEC in Howell.

They incorrectly have the wrong website for the sponsors. It's http://www.thecenterformichigan.net

SEPTEMBER 23: TOWN HALL FORUM

Brighton, Fowlerville, Howell

8 a.m.

Livingston Regional M-TEC, 1240 Packard Drive, Howell

47th-66th State House District Candidates Donna Anderson, Cindy Denby, Scott Lucas, Bill Rogers

I'm not a fan of the polticial stance from the Center for Michigan and their push for the constitutional convention, but I'll give them kudos for setting this up. Tuesdays are usually a bad day for me, but if I can make it I will. I've never seen Scott Lucas in action, and I think Anderson v Rogers is an interesting matchup.

IMO, the more forums and debates, the better, as long as the questions are good and issues based, and not the crap being spewed by the New York/DC media the last few days.

Cindy Denby running for Joe Hune's seat (47th District)

The Argus just reported the worst kept secret in the county. It is now official and Cindy Denby is running for Hune's seat.

Cynthia Denby, Handy Township supervisor and a top aide to Rep. Joe Hune,
R-Hamburg Township, filed paperwork Friday to run for Hune's seat in the
state House.

Denby has worked for Hune for 5 years, has been township supervisor for 8
years, and served as township clerk for 8 years before that. It's that
experience that Denby said makes her the best candidate. She said her top
issues would be managing the state budget, education, and promoting the
state of Michigan.

So far, one other Republican has filed to be a candidate: Carl Konopaska,
grandson of longtime magistrate Sonny Erdman. County Commissioner Donald
Parker said he is considering a run as well.

Denby and Konopaska are seeking to represent 47th district, which consists
of the townships of Hartland, Tyrone, Deerfield, Cohoctah, Howell, Handy,
Conway, Iosco, Unadilla, Putnam, Hamburg, the village of Pinckney and the
city of Howell.

I think Cindy is the odds on favorite to win with geography on her side. She'll get most if not all of Hune's supporters, and also has the experience card to win. Joe was solid on the tax issues as well, which is a plus in this economy. I'm not sure anyone else will jump in or not, we'll see. Cindy did an extremely good job as Joe's aide. I've dealt with her on several occassions during the time I lived in Howell and was in this district. I have no worries on the competence issues.

I no longer vote here, but that's where I'd be leaning right now if I did.