Saturday, June 18, 2011

Congressional District 1 - Redistricted (MI-01)


Incumbent - Dr. Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challengers - Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard)

Update - 5-16-2012 - Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek are in a rematch from 2010. 

The Previous Congressional District 1 information is here.

There is little minor change from the old first district in terms of partisanship. The old district had an approximate 6278 Obama vote spread. This one has an approximate 4706 Obama vote spread. The new district has a 38761 vote spread. The old district had a 25677 Bush spread, 3700 Posthumus vote spread, and 27000 Granholm spread. Given the history of the volatile politics and heavy number of independents Up North, this is still a swing district. It's conservative, but not republican. Bart Stupak's won here for years. I think he might have won re-election if he ran, too.

The changes are the additions of Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and part of Mason Counties. Grand Traverse and Kalkaska lean GOP. Leelanau and Mason County usually lean slightly GOP, but voted for Obama and Dan Scripps. Manistee County is a swing county. The district also loses Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Ogemaw, and its portion of Bay County. All of those areas are swing areas with various leanings except Bay County, which is democrat leaning in even the rural areas.

Dan Benishek won big in 2010. He beat the strongest democrat running by 25000 vote (21,000 in the current district). Part of that is due to the revolt against the democrats, Obamacare, Granholm, and spending. How will Obama affect things in 2012? He did very well on the sunset coast, which has a Chicago influence. I think Benishek's strongest attribute is his geography. This district votes for yoopers, even if "trolls" are now the majority. Yoopers often vote for yoopers over trolls. Trolls vote for either yoopers or trolls.

I can never call a North Michigan seat safe. I will say it leans GOP for now, depending on who runs for it. Sheltrown doesn't live in the district anymore. Barcia is further away from the district. McDowell, Nerat, Neumann, and Lahti lost their races. There's a couple of strong names to watch out for still. Rich Brown and Pat Gagliardi are the two that comes to mind. The bench is weaker for the dems than in the past, but it's still fairly deep.

Here's the two party (no 3rd party votes) results here for Obama, Bush 04, and Dan Benishek (from the portion in the district) in 2010.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 3404 2896 6300 508 54.03% 45.97% 8.06%
Alger 2188 2472 4660 -284 46.95% 53.05% -6.09%
Alpena 7125 7705 14830 -580 48.04% 51.96% -3.91%
Antrim 7506 6079 13585 1427 55.25% 44.75% 10.50%
Baraga 1846 1725 3571 121 51.69% 48.31% 3.39%
Benzie 4687 5451 10138 -764 46.23% 53.77% -7.54%
Charlevoix 7306 6817 14123 489 51.73% 48.27% 3.46%
Cheboygan 6920 6720 13640 200 50.73% 49.27% 1.47%
Chippewa 8267 8184 16451 83 50.25% 49.75% 0.50%
Crawford 3561 3441 7002 120 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Delta 8763 9974 18737 -1211 46.77% 53.23% -6.46%
Dickinson 7049 5995 13044 1054 54.04% 45.96% 8.08%
Emmet 9314 8515 17829 799 52.24% 47.76% 4.48%
Gogebic 3330 4757 8087 -1427 41.18% 58.82% -17.65%
Grand Traverse 24716 23258 47974 1458 51.52% 48.48% 3.04%
Houghton 8101 7476 15577 625 52.01% 47.99% 4.01%
Iron 2947 3080 6027 -133 48.90% 51.10% -2.21%
Kalkaska 4527 3780 8307 747 54.50% 45.50% 8.99%
Keeweenaw 756 610 1366 146 55.34% 44.66% 10.69%
Leelanau 6938 7355 14293 -417 48.54% 51.46% -2.92%
Luce 1490 1191 2681 299 55.58% 44.42% 11.15%
Mackinac 3268 3027 6295 241 51.91% 48.09% 3.83%
Manistee 5510 7235 12745 -1725 43.23% 56.77% -13.53%
Marquette 12906 19635 32541 -6729 39.66% 60.34% -20.68%
Menominee 4855 5981 10836 -1126 44.80% 55.20% -10.39%
Montmorency 2841 2403 5244 438 54.18% 45.82% 8.35%
Ontonagon 1823 1966 3789 -143 48.11% 51.89% -3.77%
Oscoda 2320 1887 4207 433 55.15% 44.85% 10.29%
Otsego 6752 5634 12386 1118 54.51% 45.49% 9.03%
Presque Isle 3606 3722 7328 -116 49.21% 50.79% -1.58%
Schoolcraft 2058 2184 4242 -126 48.51% 51.49% -2.97%
Mason County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp 168 287 455 -119 36.92% 63.08% -26.15%
Grant Twp 199 295 494 -96 40.28% 59.72% -19.43%
Hamlin Twp (part) 1058 1008 2066 50 51.21% 48.79% 2.42%
Meade Twp 42 41 83 1 50.60% 49.40% 1.20%
Sheridan Twp 197 302 499 -105 39.48% 60.52% -21.04%
Sherman Twp 276 297 573 -21 48.17% 51.83% -3.66%
Victory Twp 386 327 713 59 54.14% 45.86% 8.27%
Total 179006 183712 362718 -4706 49.35% 50.65% -1.30%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 3592 2871 6463 721 55.58% 44.42% 11.16%
Alger 2318 2395 4713 -77 49.18% 50.82% -1.63%
Alpena 7665 7407 15072 258 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Antrim 8379 5072 13451 3307 62.29% 37.71% 24.59%
Baraga 1977 1660 3637 317 54.36% 45.64% 8.72%
Benzie 5284 4383 9667 901 54.66% 45.34% 9.32%
Charlevoix 8214 5729 13943 2485 58.91% 41.09% 17.82%
Cheboygan 7798 5941 13739 1857 56.76% 43.24% 13.52%
Chippewa 9122 7203 16325 1919 55.88% 44.12% 11.75%
Crawford 4017 3126 7143 891 56.24% 43.76% 12.47%
Delta 9630 9381 19011 249 50.65% 49.35% 1.31%
Dickinson 7734 5650 13384 2084 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Emmet 10332 6846 17178 3486 60.15% 39.85% 20.29%
Gogebic 3935 4421 8356 -486 47.09% 52.91% -5.82%
Grand Traverse 27446 18256 45702 9190 60.05% 39.95% 20.11%
Houghton 8889 6731 15620 2158 56.91% 43.09% 13.82%
Iron 3224 3215 6439 9 50.07% 49.93% 0.14%
Kalkaska 5084 3189 8273 1895 61.45% 38.55% 22.91%
Keeweenaw 781 630 1411 151 55.35% 44.65% 10.70%
Leelanau 7733 6048 13781 1685 56.11% 43.89% 12.23%
Luce 1749 1049 2798 700 62.51% 37.49% 25.02%
Mackinac 3706 2819 6525 887 56.80% 43.20% 13.59%
Manistee 6295 6272 12567 23 50.09% 49.91% 0.18%
Marquette 14690 17412 32102 -2722 45.76% 54.24% -8.48%
Menominee 5942 5326 11268 616 52.73% 47.27% 5.47%
Montmorency 3300 2196 5496 1104 60.04% 39.96% 20.09%
Ontonagon 2262 1863 4125 399 54.84% 45.16% 9.67%
Oscoda 2570 1792 4362 778 58.92% 41.08% 17.84%
Otsego 7470 4674 12144 2796 61.51% 38.49% 23.02%
Presque Isle 3982 3432 7414 550 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Schoolcraft 2267 2137 4404 130 51.48% 48.52% 2.95%
Mason County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp 210 274 484 -64 43.39% 56.61% -13.22%
Grant Twp 203 245 448 -42 45.31% 54.69% -9.38%
Hamlin Twp (part) 1186 799 1985 387 59.75% 40.25% 19.50%
Meade Twp 45 37 82 8 54.88% 45.12% 9.76%
Sheridan Twp 234 241 475 -7 49.26% 50.74% -1.47%
Sherman Twp 324 240 564 84 57.45% 42.55% 14.89%
Victory Twp 405 271 676 134 59.91% 40.09% 19.82%
Total 199994 161233 361227 38761 55.37% 44.63% 10.73%








2010







Benishek McDowell Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 2603 1433 4036 1170 64.49% 35.51% 28.99%
Alger 1749 1761 3510 -12 49.83% 50.17% -0.34%
Alpena 5569 3794 9363 1775 59.48% 40.52% 18.96%
Antrim 6041 3491 9532 2550 63.38% 36.62% 26.75%
Baraga 1382 1124 2506 258 55.15% 44.85% 10.30%
Benzie

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 5752 3767 9519 1985 60.43% 39.57% 20.85%
Cheboygan 5502 3905 9407 1597 58.49% 41.51% 16.98%
Chippewa 5477 5775 11252 -298 48.68% 51.32% -2.65%
Crawford 2547 1805 4352 742 58.52% 41.48% 17.05%
Delta 6779 5730 12509 1049 54.19% 45.81% 8.39%
Dickinson 5577 3421 8998 2156 61.98% 38.02% 23.96%
Emmet 7397 5040 12437 2357 59.48% 40.52% 18.95%
Gogebic 2313 2759 5072 -446 45.60% 54.40% -8.79%
Grand Traverse

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Houghton 6628 4926 11554 1702 57.37% 42.63% 14.73%
Iron 2432 1894 4326 538 56.22% 43.78% 12.44%
Kalkaska

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Keeweenaw 641 412 1053 229 60.87% 39.13% 21.75%
Leelanau

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Luce 1017 808 1825 209 55.73% 44.27% 11.45%
Mackinac 2351 2200 4551 151 51.66% 48.34% 3.32%
Manistee

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Marquette 9301 11181 20482 -1880 45.41% 54.59% -9.18%
Menominee 3823 2998 6821 825 56.05% 43.95% 12.10%
Montmorency 2103 1314 3417 789 61.55% 38.45% 23.09%
Ontonagon 1455 1278 2733 177 53.24% 46.76% 6.48%
Oscoda 1520 946 2466 574 61.64% 38.36% 23.28%
Otsego 5133 2995 8128 2138 63.15% 36.85% 26.30%
Presque Isle 2914 2203 5117 711 56.95% 43.05% 13.89%
Schoolcraft 1587 1423 3010 164 52.72% 47.28% 5.45%
Mason County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Freesoil Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp (part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Meade Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sheridan Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sherman Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Victory Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 99593 78383 177976 21210 55.96% 44.04% 11.92%

Overall, I'd consider this a slight R lean, but not overwhelmingly so. North Michigan seats are tough defenses for the party in power if things aren't going well. It's just a very independent place with little to no tolerance for old fashion politicalspeak, regardless of party. This district will never be easy for anybody right now.

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