Saturday, June 18, 2011

Congressional District 2 - Redistricted (MI-02)


Incumbent - Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.

Challenger - Willie German Jr (D-Muskegon)

The Previous Congressional District 1 information is here.

Due to population growth in West Michigan, this district (along with the 8th) actually had to contract.  It was and still is the strongest GOP district in Michigan overall, despite shedding some areas. The new district has a 2008 McCain vote spread of 8622 and Bush vote spread of 74005. Huizenga has a 60000 vote spread in the areas represented in the new district against his old opponent. The old district spreads were 11004 for McCain and 70434 for Bush. Much of that was due to dropping most of Northern Allegan County, which is arguably the most republican part of the entire state. It only keeps most of the city of Holland which is in two counties. Republican leaning Wexford County is dropped as well. It also drops Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties which are all competitive. It drops part of  Northern Kent County, but picks up Kentwood, Grandville, Walker, and Wyoming. The latter three lean Republican, Kentwood is treading blue fast. The rest of it stays the same.

This is the closest to a safe GOP district in Michigan. Ottawa County is still the most GOP county in the state. Muskegon County is a big blue sink and Lake County tilts dem, but Ottawa County outvotes both of those areas by a large margin. That's not going to change here. Despite worse partisan numbers, I think this district is safer for the GOP from a geography standpoint. There won't be a north lakeshore threat with the break being in Mason County. A Leelanau/Benzie green democrat is also less of a threat in the 1st district than he would be in the 2nd which is more Chicago influenced and less populist (outside Muskegon). I think Huizenga should have little trouble keeping this district.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lake 2269 2919 5188 -650 43.74% 56.26% -12.53%
Muskegon 29145 53821 82966 -24676 35.13% 64.87% -29.74%
Newaygo 11862 10790 22652 1072 52.37% 47.63% 4.73%
Oceana 5860 6405 12265 -545 47.78% 52.22% -4.44%
Ottawa 83330 50828 134158 32502 62.11% 37.89% 24.23%
Allegan:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Holland City (most) 2093 1391 3484 702 60.07% 39.93% 20.15%
Mason County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Amber Twp 689 640 1329 49 51.84% 48.16% 3.69%
Branch Twp 267 315 582 -48 45.88% 54.12% -8.25%
Custer Twp 334 334 668 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Eden Twp 119 180 299 -61 39.80% 60.20% -20.40%
Hamlin Twp (part) 1058 1008 2066 50 51.21% 48.79% 2.42%
Logan Twp 80 91 171 -11 46.78% 53.22% -6.43%
Ludington City 1755 2188 3943 -433 44.51% 55.49% -10.98%
Pere Marquette 720 652 1372 68 52.48% 47.52% 4.96%
Riverton twp 317 309 626 8 50.64% 49.36% 1.28%
Scottville City 221 268 489 -47 45.19% 54.81% -9.61%
Summit Twp 319 283 602 36 52.99% 47.01% 5.98%
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker City 6499 5648 12147 851 53.50% 46.50% 7.01%
Wyoming City 15042 15682 30724 -640 48.96% 51.04% -2.08%
Grandville City 5555 3209 8764 2346 63.38% 36.62% 26.77%
Kentwood City 10636 12587 23223 -1951 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Byron Twp (small part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 178170 169548 347718 8622 51.24% 48.76% 2.48%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lake 2502 2675 5177 -173 48.33% 51.67% -3.34%
Muskegon 35302 44282 79584 -8980 44.36% 55.64% -11.28%
Newaygo 13608 9057 22665 4551 60.04% 39.96% 20.08%
Oceana 6677 5441 12118 1236 55.10% 44.90% 10.20%
Ottawa 92048 35552 127600 56496 72.14% 27.86% 44.28%
Allegan:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Holland City (most) 2479 941 3420 1538 72.49% 27.51% 44.97%
Mason County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Amber Twp 698 464 1162 234 60.07% 39.93% 20.14%
Branch Twp 297 250 547 47 54.30% 45.70% 8.59%
Custer Twp 354 295 649 59 54.55% 45.45% 9.09%
Eden Twp 151 124 275 27 54.91% 45.09% 9.82%
Hamlin Twp (part) 1186 799 1985 387 59.75% 40.25% 19.50%
Logan Twp 90 74 164 16 54.88% 45.12% 9.76%
Ludington City 2056 1786 3842 270 53.51% 46.49% 7.03%
Pere Marquette 814 532 1346 282 60.48% 39.52% 20.95%
Riverton twp 389 236 625 153 62.24% 37.76% 24.48%
Scottville City 298 231 529 67 56.33% 43.67% 12.67%
Summit Twp 370 234 604 136 61.26% 38.74% 22.52%
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker City 7528 4472 12000 3056 62.73% 37.27% 25.47%
Wyoming City 18524 11979 30503 6545 60.73% 39.27% 21.46%
Grandville City 6567 2397 8964 4170 73.26% 26.74% 46.52%
Kentwood City 13014 9126 22140 3888 58.78% 41.22% 17.56%
Byron Twp (small part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 204952 130947 335899 74005 61.02% 38.98% 22.03%









Huizenga Johnson Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lake 1933 1472 3405 461 56.77% 43.23% 13.54%
Muskegon 24293 24102 48395 191 50.20% 49.80% 0.39%
Newaygo 9799 4243 14042 5556 69.78% 30.22% 39.57%
Oceana 5298 2699 7997 2599 66.25% 33.75% 32.50%
Ottawa 68087 20250 88337 47837 77.08% 22.92% 54.15%
Allegan:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Holland City (most) 1718 598 2316 1120 74.18% 25.82% 48.36%
Mason County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Amber Twp 616 242 858 374 71.79% 28.21% 43.59%
Branch Twp 228 104 332 124 68.67% 31.33% 37.35%
Custer Twp 281 132 413 149 68.04% 31.96% 36.08%
Eden Twp 126 71 197 55 63.96% 36.04% 27.92%
Hamlin Twp (part) 945 488 1433 457 65.95% 34.05% 31.89%
Logan Twp 79 50 129 29 61.24% 38.76% 22.48%
Ludington City 1509 958 2467 551 61.17% 38.83% 22.33%
Pere Marquette 675 302 977 373 69.09% 30.91% 38.18%
Riverton twp 290 131 421 159 68.88% 31.12% 37.77%
Scottville City 210 76 286 134 73.43% 26.57% 46.85%
Summit Twp 285 129 414 156 68.84% 31.16% 37.68%
Kent County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wyoming City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grandville City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kentwood City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Byron Twp (small part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 116372 56047 172419 60325 67.49% 32.51% 34.99%

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