Saturday, January 30, 2010

Michigan 10th District (MI-10) Updated

Michigan's 10th District - Congress

Incumbent - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - R+5

GOP Candidate - Candice Miller
Dem Candidate - Henry Yanez

Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%

2004:
Bush - 57%
Kerry – 43%

2000
Bush - 53%
Gore - 45%

This district is a right-populist district that was created to send David Bonior home. The old 10th was a swing district that voted for Regan, GHWB, Clinton, Bush twice, and probably Obama, but at the same time kept voting narrowly for David Bonior, driving the GOP nuts. This district is still populist, but no longer has the Democrat strongholds of Mt Clemens, Eastpointe, Roseville, nor the competitive areas of Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores. The good news is that this district got Candice Miller, then two term secretary of state to run. She won easily, never getting less than 63%. The bad news is that I think making this district that much more Republican helped cost Joe Knollenberg his seat six years after the fact. If the rest of Sterling Heights (a swing city, but democrat in the South and more Republican in the North) went to Miller instead of Levin, then all of Royal Oak and Berkley could have gone to Sander Levin, and Knollenberg could have taken the rest of Orion and more of the north townships instead, scaring off Peters. I think Miller would have beaten Bonior (assuming he moved one town over) in 2002 in the new district without St Clair Shores (which loves Bonior democrats), Eastpointe, Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens. Lapeer, Huron, and Sanilac Counties would have made the difference, even with St Clair ticket-splitters going his way. 

Candice Miller should be safe here as long as she watches the populist flank. This is a conservative district, but not one that would vote for big business. The thumb is one of the most independent minded areas in the country. Macomb County is still the home of the Reagan Democrat. While Northern Macomb is more Republican, it can't be taken for granted. It was close in 2000, shifted hard right in 2004, and shifted to tossing the bums out in 2006/2008. Macomb loves to toss who they think are bums out, going back to 1984. St Clair County is a swing county that leans somewhat republican, is not adverse to voting for democrats. It's by all accounts an extension of North Macomb in politics, although usually less republican because of the Port Huron area.

This is an area that always needs to be worked hard election time. The best candidates here are populist, strong, anti-establishment, hard working, pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, but also somewhat pro-union, and against bad trade agreements. It's a Jacksonian district.

Here's the latest results for Candice Miller, who is still the current rep. She's won easily in every election,and took all municipalities in 2008.


2008 Election Miller Denison 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Huron County 12,269 4,041 366      16,676 8228 73.57% 24.23% 49.34%
Lapeer County 27,969 14,478 1354      43,801 13491 63.85% 33.05% 30.80%
Macomb County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1,965 755 79        2,799 1210 70.20% 26.97% 43.23%
Bruce Twp 3,450 1,178 128        4,756 2272 72.54% 24.77% 47.77%
Chesterfield Twp 13,057 6,993 530      20,580 6064 63.45% 33.98% 29.47%
Harrison Twp 8,739 4,085 330      13,154 4654 66.44% 31.06% 35.38%
Lenox Twp 2,378 1,660 101        4,139 718 57.45% 40.11% 17.35%
Macomb Twp 24,905 11,816 675      37,396 13089 66.60% 31.60% 35.00%
City of Memphis 277 90 20          387 187 71.58% 23.26% 48.32%
City of New Baltimore 3,870 1,830 124        5,824 2040 66.45% 31.42% 35.03%
Ray Twp 1,496 464 51        2,011 1032 74.39% 23.07% 51.32%
City of Richmond 1,839 856 97        2,792 983 65.87% 30.66% 35.21%
Richmond Twp 1,359 432 43        1,834 927 74.10% 23.56% 50.55%
Shelby Twp 24,626 11,044 879      36,549 13582 67.38% 30.22% 37.16%
Sterling Heights: 25,465 15,070 1147      41,682 10395 61.09% 36.15% 24.94%
SH 1


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 2


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 4


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 15


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 16


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 46


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 47


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 901


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 902


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 903


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SH 907


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Utica 1,393 808 77        2,278 585 61.15% 35.47% 25.68%
Washington Twp 9,083 3,369 302      12,754 5714 71.22% 26.42% 44.80%
St Clair County 52,280 24,178 2074      78,532 28102 66.57% 30.79% 35.78%
Sanilac County 14,041 5,207 492      19,740 8834 71.13% 26.38% 44.75%









Total 230,461 108,354 8,869 347,684 122107 66.28% 31.16% 35.12%


Bush won this district by decent margin in 2000 and easily in 2004. Miller has more of Sterling Heights than Levin, so I used the Levin precincts subtracted from the rest of the City.

Here's 2000.


2000 elections Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Huron County 8,911 6,899 285      16,095 2012 55.37% 42.86% 12.50%
Lapeer County 20,351 15,749 1127      37,227 4602 54.67% 42.31% 12.36%
Macomb County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1,486 989 100        2,575 497 57.71% 38.41% 19.30%
Bruce Twp 2,461 1,494 91        4,046 967 60.83% 36.93% 23.90%
Chesterfield Twp 7,656 7,210 346      15,212 446 50.33% 47.40% 2.93%
Harrison Twp 5,608 5,111 242      10,961 497 51.16% 46.63% 4.53%
Lenox Twp 1,300 1,335 55        2,690 -35 48.33% 49.63% -1.30%
Macomb Twp 12,363 10,249 325      22,937 2114 53.90% 44.68% 9.22%
City of Memphis 197 163 11          371 34 53.10% 43.94% 9.16%
City of New Baltimore 1,827 1,659 98        3,584 168 50.98% 46.29% 4.69%
Ray Twp 1,144 711 36        1,891 433 60.50% 37.60% 22.90%
City of Richmond 1,136 1,004 64        2,204 132 51.54% 45.55% 5.99%
Richmond Twp 935 564 42        1,541 371 60.67% 36.60% 24.08%
Shelby Twp 17,109 12,015 706      29,830 5094 57.36% 40.28% 17.08%
Sterling Heights: 26,576 25,158 1177      52,911 1418 50.23% 47.55% 2.68%
SH 1 -429 -508 -22         (959) 79 44.73% 52.97% -8.24%
SH 2 -505 -513 -36       (1,054) 8 47.91% 48.67% -0.76%
SH 3 -431 -503 -20         (954) 72 45.18% 52.73% -7.55%
SH 4 -496 -565 -21       (1,082) 69 45.84% 52.22% -6.38%
SH 5 -475 -466 -14         (955) -9 49.74% 48.80% 0.94%
SH 6 -371 -344 -24         (739) -27 50.20% 46.55% 3.65%
SH 8 -276 -226 -21         (523) -50 52.77% 43.21% 9.56%
SH 9 -611 -394 -23       (1,028) -217 59.44% 38.33% 21.11%
SH 10 -289 -276 -16         (581) -13 49.74% 47.50% 2.24%
SH 13 -324 -335 -21         (680) 11 47.65% 49.26% -1.62%
SH 15 -427 -383 -14         (824) -44 51.82% 46.48% 5.34%
SH 16 -351 -381 -19         (751) 30 46.74% 50.73% -3.99%
SH 46 -355 -339 -14         (708) -16 50.14% 47.88% 2.26%
SH 47 -229 -316 -14         (559) 87 40.97% 56.53% -15.56%
SH 901 -671 -684 -28       (1,383) 13 48.52% 49.46% -0.94%
SH 902 -465 -481 -18         (964) 16 48.24% 49.90% -1.66%
SH 903 -988 -1,064 -28       (2,080) 76 47.50% 51.15% -3.65%
SH 907 -556 -402 -19         (977) -154 56.91% 41.15% 15.76%
City of Utica 976 962 50        1,988 14 49.09% 48.39% 0.70%
Washington Twp 5,553 3,512 176        9,241 2041 60.09% 38.00% 22.09%
St Clair County 33,571 33,002 1943      68,516 569 49.00% 48.17% 0.83%
Sanilac County 10,966 7,153 467      18,586 3813 59.00% 38.49% 20.52%









Total 151,877 126,759 6,969 285,605 25118 53.18% 44.38% 8.79%

And 2004. You can see the shift here and how independent the electorate is here, especially when 2008 comes in the picture. Watch the thumb areas in particular.


2004 elections Bush Kerry 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Huron County 9,671 7,629 166      17,466 2042 55.37% 43.68% 11.69%
Lapeer County 25,556 18,086 505      44,147 7470 57.89% 40.97% 16.92%
Macomb County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1,797 1,062 37        2,896 735 62.05% 36.67% 25.38%
Bruce Twp 2,976 1,731 48        4,755 1245 62.59% 36.40% 26.18%
Chesterfield Twp 10,533 8,853 197      19,583 1680 53.79% 45.21% 8.58%
Harrison Twp 6,946 5,906 123      12,975 1040 53.53% 45.52% 8.02%
Lenox Twp 1,890 1,736 28        3,654 154 51.72% 47.51% 4.21%
Macomb Twp 19,496 14,342 244      34,082 5154 57.20% 42.08% 15.12%
City of Memphis 227 170 5          402 57 56.47% 42.29% 14.18%
City of New Baltimore 3,103 2,440 50        5,593 663 55.48% 43.63% 11.85%
Ray Twp 1,315 707 15        2,037 608 64.56% 34.71% 29.85%
City of Richmond 1,610 1,177 33        2,820 433 57.09% 41.74% 15.35%
Richmond Twp 1,156 674 24        1,854 482 62.35% 36.35% 26.00%
Shelby Twp 20,921 13,452 335      34,708 7469 60.28% 38.76% 21.52%
Sterling Heights: 30,885 28,697 641      60,223 2188 51.28% 47.65% 3.63%
SH 1 -402 -496 -8         (906) 94 44.37% 54.75% -10.38%
SH 2 -502 -546 -8       (1,056) 44 47.54% 51.70% -4.17%
SH 3 -454 -551 -9       (1,014) 97 44.77% 54.34% -9.57%
SH 4 -668 -795 -9       (1,472) 127 45.38% 54.01% -8.63%
SH 5 -465 -494 -9         (968) 29 48.04% 51.03% -3.00%
SH 6 -592 -551 -6       (1,149) -41 51.52% 47.95% 3.57%
SH 8 -297 -214 -8         (519) -83 57.23% 41.23% 15.99%
SH 9 -552 -459 -4       (1,015) -93 54.38% 45.22% 9.16%
SH 10 -496 -471 -15         (982) -25 50.51% 47.96% 2.55%
SH 13 -170 -144 -9         (323) -26 52.63% 44.58% 8.05%
SH 15 -463 -485 -11         (959) 22 48.28% 50.57% -2.29%
SH 16 -343 -467 -6         (816) 124 42.03% 57.23% -15.20%
SH 46 -478 -592 -8       (1,078) 114 44.34% 54.92% -10.58%
SH 47 -257 -335 -7         (599) 78 42.90% 55.93% -13.02%
SH 901 -706 -768 -12       (1,486) 62 47.51% 51.68% -4.17%
SH 902 -165 -164 -5         (334) -1 49.40% 49.10% 0.30%
SH 903 -60 -68 -1         (129) 8 46.51% 52.71% -6.20%
SH 907 -1,330 -1,208 -31       (2,569) -122 51.77% 47.02% 4.75%
City of Utica 1,147 1,077 24        2,248 70 51.02% 47.91% 3.11%
Washington Twp 7,526 4,300 101      11,927 3226 63.10% 36.05% 27.05%
St Clair County 42,740 36,174 829      79,743 6566 53.60% 45.36% 8.23%
Sanilac County 12,632 7,883 248      20,763 4749 60.84% 37.97% 22.87%









Total 193,727 147,288 3,487 344,502 46439 56.23% 42.75% 13.48%



McCain struggled here as he did in all of the state, but he did win this district, one of three won.


2008 Elections McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Huron County 8,434 8,367 374      17,175 67 49.11% 48.72% 0.39%
Lapeer County 22,831 21,457 1074      45,362 1374 50.33% 47.30% 3.03%
Macomb County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1,604 1,252 67        2,923 352 54.88% 42.83% 12.04%
Bruce Twp 2,854 2,071 76        5,001 783 57.07% 41.41% 15.66%
Chesterfield Twp 10,019 11,050 398      21,467 -1031 46.67% 51.47% -4.80%
Harrison Twp 6,610 6,726 244      13,580 -116 48.67% 49.53% -0.85%
Lenox Twp 1,880 2,369 70        4,319 -489 43.53% 54.85% -11.32%
Macomb Twp 19,579 18,952 504      39,035 627 50.16% 48.55% 1.61%
City of Memphis 227 154 12          393 73 57.76% 39.19% 18.58%
City of New Baltimore 3,003 2,971 101        6,075 32 49.43% 48.91% 0.53%
Ray Twp 1,296 780 52        2,128 516 60.90% 36.65% 24.25%
City of Richmond 1,454 1,378 44        2,876 76 50.56% 47.91% 2.64%
Richmond Twp 1,142 723 41        1,906 419 59.92% 37.93% 21.98%
Shelby Twp 20,607 16,877 677      38,161 3730 54.00% 44.23% 9.77%
Sterling Heights: 27,510 32,009 1083      60,602 -4499 45.39% 52.82% -7.42%
SH 1 -330 -511 -8         (849) 181 38.87% 60.19% -21.32%
SH 2 -438 -517 -10         (965) 79 45.39% 53.58% -8.19%
SH 3 -383 -624 -21       (1,028) 241 37.26% 60.70% -23.44%
SH 4 -567 -844 -14       (1,425) 277 39.79% 59.23% -19.44%
SH 5 -353 -571 -14         (938) 218 37.63% 60.87% -23.24%
SH 6 -482 -614 -15       (1,111) 132 43.38% 55.27% -11.88%
SH 8 -248 -262 -11         (521) 14 47.60% 50.29% -2.69%
SH 9 -450 -476 -6         (932) 26 48.28% 51.07% -2.79%
SH 10 -393 -484 -24         (901) 91 43.62% 53.72% -10.10%
SH 13 -137 -185 -4         (326) 48 42.02% 56.75% -14.72%
SH 15 -352 -553 -9         (914) 201 38.51% 60.50% -21.99%
SH 16 -255 -475 -12         (742) 220 34.37% 64.02% -29.65%
SH 46 -384 -671 -20       (1,075) 287 35.72% 62.42% -26.70%
SH 47 -200 -307 -8         (515) 107 38.83% 59.61% -20.78%
SH 901 -725 -796 -29       (1,550) 71 46.77% 51.35% -4.58%
SH 902 -203 -210 -3         (416) 7 48.80% 50.48% -1.68%
SH 903 -68 -61 -2         (131) -7 51.91% 46.56% 5.34%
SH 907 -1,369 -1,369 -31       (2,769) 0 49.44% 49.44% 0.00%
City of Utica 1,099 1,288 60        2,447 -189 44.91% 52.64% -7.72%
Washington Twp 7,741 5,392 213      13,346 2349 58.00% 40.40% 17.60%
St Clair County 38,536 40,677 1587      80,800 -2141 47.69% 50.34% -2.65%
Sanilac County 10,679 9,047 473      20,199 1632 52.87% 44.79% 8.08%









Total 179,768 174,010 6,909 360,687 5758 49.84% 48.24% 1.60%

This whole area is susceptable to voting shifts, although they are consistent and similar in their politics. North Macomb about 1% less GOP than the thumb (minus Tuscola County which probably wouldn't alter the numbers much)

Comparing by area.
Macomb County Portion:
Bush 53.78%, Gore 44.05%, 145181 votes, 14122 vote spread
Bush 56.54%, Kerry 42.50%, 182383 votes, 25612 vote spread
McCain 50.36%, Obama 47.91%, 197151 votes, 4826 vote spread

Thumb:
Bush 53.02%, Gore 44.31%, 149,665 votes, 13037 vote spread
Bush 55.88%, Kerry 43.04%, 162119 votes, 20827 vote spread
McCain 49.21%, Obama 48.67%, 163536 votes, 932 vote spread
The Farm Club here favors the democrats due to the number of close and even republican seats that flipped this way on the local level. Some of them open up with term limits.

St. Senate 31 - Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Sanilac and Tuscola is in the district. This district opens up with Jim Barcia termed out. It should be a very close race in 2010. Barcia ran way ahead of the partisan numbers here due to his personal popularity and pro-gun, pro-life, and trade stances while in Congress.

St Senate 31st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party





06 - Nuncio/Barcia
23,569
78,923
1441
   103,933
-55354
22.68%
75.94%
-53.26%
02 - Green/Barcia
35,486
54,352

     89,838
-18866
39.50%
60.50%
-21.00%


St Senate 25 - Covers Lapeer and St Clair Counties - This is another open seat in 2010. Jud Gilbert is the senator. This is a district that has some republican leanings, is one the democrats usually think they can win. Lapeer County has some GOP leanings, and St Clair County is usually close and often leans GOP (but went for Obama), but has a democrat base in Port Huron. 06 was a little too close to comfort here.


St. Senate 25th GOP  Dem 3rd party




06 - Gilbert/Orr 49,272 43,935 2469      95,676 5337 51.50% 45.92% 5.58%
06 - Gilbert/Hamilton 43,806 34,517
     78,323 9289 55.93% 44.07% 11.86%

St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp,  Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.


St Senate 11th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Sanborn/Jenkins 65543 42279 2903    110,725 23264 59.19% 38.18% 21.01%
02 - Sanborn/Ayres 55859 26365
     82,224 29494 67.94% 32.06% 35.87%

St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.


St Senate 10th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Horton/Switalski 30,067 62,737 2596      95,400 -32670 31.52% 65.76% -34.25%
02 - Rice/Switalski 36,424 42,822 1462      80,708 -6398 45.13% 53.06% -7.93%



St. House 84th - Covers Huron and Tuscola Counties. This is a competitive district in the thumb. It was Mike Green's district, then Tom Meyer's district. Meyer narrowly won in 2002 as an incumbent. Terry Brown then won the district as an open seat. This is a seat that will need to be picked up for the GOP to retake the Michigan House.

St Rep 84th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Kabot/Brown
15,321
28,192

     43,513
-12871
35.21%
64.79%
-29.58%
06 - Hunt/Brown
17,374
18,422

     35,796
-1048
48.54%
51.46%
-2.93%
04 - Meyer/Montle
27,917
15,183
783
     43,883
12734
63.62%
34.60%
29.02%
02 - Meyer/Kern
16,905
13,784
325
     31,014
3121
54.51%
44.44%
10.06%

St House 83 - Covers Sanilac County, and Burtchville Twp, Fort Gratiot, and the City of Port Huron in St Clair County. This is a competitive district that was choked badly in 2004 for several reasons that don't need to be rehashed here, but should be remembered by the strategy department at state party. Sanilac County is quite conservative, but will vote for a local democrat. Port Huron leans democrat. This is a district we should take back with John Espinoza termed out, but I don't expect it to be easy.


St Rep 83rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Kearns/Espinoza 13,848 25,808
     39,656 -11960 34.92% 65.08% -30.16%
06 - Smith/Espinoza 8,246 22,616
     30,862 -14370 26.72% 73.28% -46.56%
04 - Muxlow/Espinoza 17,844 22,256
     40,100 -4412 44.50% 55.50% -11.00%
02 - Ehardt/Schultz 17,268 9,520
     26,788 7748 64.46% 35.54% 28.92%


St House 82 - Covers Lapeer County - Leans GOP.


St Rep 82nd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Daley/Marquardt 24,655 18,406
     43,061 6249 57.26% 42.74% 14.51%
06 - Stahl/Harrand 18,629 15,021 1288      34,938 3608 53.32% 42.99% 10.33%
04 - Stahl/Okasinski 24,292 16,215 1529      42,036 8077 57.79% 38.57% 19.21%
02 - Stahl/Knuth 16,464 10,288 1159      27,911 6176 58.99% 36.86% 22.13%

St House 81 - Covers Algonac, Berlin Twp, Brockway Twp, Casco Twp, China Twp, Clay Twp, Clyde Twp, Cottrellville Twp, East China Twp, Emmett Twp, Grant Twp, Greenwood Twp, Kenockee Twp, Lynn Twp, Marine City, City of Marysville, City of Memphis (St Clair Side), Mussey Twp, Port Huron Twp, Riley Twp, City of St Clair, St Clair Twp, and Yale in St Clair County. This is a potentially competitive seat in St Clair County. Most of it leans slightly GOP, but Marysville has a democrat leaning. Phil Pavlov is termed out so this is an open seat.


St Rep 81st GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Pavlov/Pencak 30,125 16,757
     46,882 13368 64.26% 35.74% 28.51%
06 - Pavlov/Donnellon 22,365 14,816
     37,181 7549 60.15% 39.85% 20.30%
04 - Pavlov/Patterson 26,277 20,290
     46,567 5987 56.43% 43.57% 12.86%
02 - Hager/Rumsey 20,038 10,114
     30,152 9924 66.46% 33.54% 32.91%



St House 36 - Covers Bruce Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp in Macomb County - Probably the most GOP district in Macomb County.


St Rep 36th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Lund/Murphy 30,753 19,905
     50,658 10848 60.71% 39.29% 21.41%
06 - Palmer/Murphy 23,620 15,124
     38,744 8496 60.96% 39.04% 21.93%
04 - Palmer/Murphy 30,305 16,491
     46,796 13814 64.76% 35.24% 29.52%
02 - Palmer/Denison 20,013 9,699
     29,712 10314 67.36% 32.64% 34.71%

St House 33 - Covers part of Clinton Twp, Macomb Twp, and Ray Twp - Fairly strong GOP lean, but not overwhelmingly so. This district does not care for company line representatives. In the past this district or a similar one elected Meltzer, Leon Drolet, and David Jaye. It also voted for David Bonior.


St Rep 33rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Meltzer/Prasiloski 32,923 22,765
     55,688 10158 59.12% 40.88% 18.24%
06 - Meltzer/Cynowa 21,753 18,838
     40,591 2915 53.59% 46.41% 7.18%
04 - Drolet/Cynowa 30,292 19,644
     49,936 10648 60.66% 39.34% 21.32%
02 - Drolet/Ventimiglia 17,856 11,822
     29,678 6034 60.17% 39.83% 20.33%


St House 32 - Covers Armada Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond Twp in Macomb County, and Columbus Twp, Ira Twp, Kimball Twp, and Wales Twp in St Clair county. This district just flipped in 2008. I would have called it slightly GOP leaning, but Kimball Twp, Lenox Twp, and Chesterfield Twp makes it dangerous. Anything in Macomb and St Clair County is dangerous to a degree, but those areas more so. If the GOP is taking back the state house, it starts here.


St Rep 32nd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - J.Accavitti/Hasse 22,455 24,123 1265      47,843 -1668 46.93% 50.42% -3.49%
06 - D.Acciavatti/Lezotte 21,217 13,847 886      35,950 7370 59.02% 38.52% 20.50%
04 - D.Acciavatti/Landsiedel 28,988 14,131 1006      44,125 14857 65.70% 32.02% 33.67%
02 - D.Acciavatti/Hertel 15,405 11,975
     27,380 3430 56.26% 43.74% 12.53%


St Rep 31 -  Covers part of Clinton Twp and Mt Clemens in Macomb County - Slight democrat leaning, made more so by Mt Clemens. The GOP thought they had this one awhile back, but Fred Miller had other plans, keeping this district in the hands of the dems for as long as I've followed the state house. This area is the heart of Bonior country, and it's not going to be easy. It's winnable in the right year though, like the North Warren/South Sterling Heights district.


St Rep 31st GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Tollis/Miller 12,277 26,404 1263      39,944 -14127 30.74% 66.10% -35.37%
06 - Tollis/Miller 10,348 18,584 777      29,709 -8236 34.83% 62.55% -27.72%
04 - Morelli/Miller 16,523 21,274 949      38,746 -4751 42.64% 54.91% -12.26%
02 - Russo/Gieleghem 9,021 14,663 701      24,385 -5642 36.99% 60.13% -23.14%


St Rep 30 - Covers Northern Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County- This is a competitive district that has been held by the Rocca's for years. Sal, Sue, and Torry Rocca have represented this district. Tory Rocca is termed out, and it will be interesting to see who takes this. Sterling Heights is more democrat the south you go, so there may be a slight GOP leaning, but I expect this to be close.


St Rep 30th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - T.Rocca/Hughes 25,713 17,150
     42,863 8563 59.99% 40.01% 19.98%
06 - T.Rocca/Fessler 19,387 13,066
     32,453 6321 59.74% 40.26% 19.48%
04 - T.Rocca/Maceroni 22,725 19,474 2      42,201 3251 53.85% 46.15% 7.70%
02 - S.Rocca/McHugh 17,243 10,392
     27,635 6851 62.40% 37.60% 24.79%

St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.


St Rep 25th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Wiecek/J.Switalski 14,285 26,874 1549      42,708 -12589 33.45% 62.92% -29.48%
06 - StPierre/Bieda 10,151 22,633 794      33,578 -12482 30.23% 67.40% -37.17%
04 - Wiecek/Bieda 16,269 25,497
     41,766 -9228 38.95% 61.05% -22.09%
02 - Sadowski/Bieda 12,893 16,910
     29,803 -4017 43.26% 56.74% -13.48%


St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?


St Rep 24th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - B.Brandenbug/Roberts 22,430 23,495 1678      47,603 -1065 47.12% 49.36% -2.24%
06 - J.Brandenburg/Abella 22,256 14,645 608      37,509 7611 59.34% 39.04% 20.29%
04 - J.Brandenberg/Foukes 29,111 17,317
     46,428 11794 62.70% 37.30% 25.40%
02 - J.Brandenburg/Benson 17,694 14,296 1049      33,039 3398 53.55% 43.27% 10.28%



Overall, this district is safe for Candice Miller, and potentially competitive if it opens up. Redistricting can make this interesting as well. Will Bonior attempt a comeback if Warren, Eastpointe, or Roseville are back in. Will this go west from the thumb and take in Bay County. If that's the case, Barcia may try and make a run. He's term limited and held a thumb district. I think the dems will be careful here if they control redistricting. I don't think Stabenow wants to take on Miller in 2012.

There should be some interesting downticket races here in 2010. Oftentimes as Macomb County goes, so does the state.  Watch St Clair County too. It's always competitive.

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

There was no way to put Roseville and Warren into the same district due to the requirement that city lines could not be broken. The only other option for Warren was to put it with Sterling Heights, which would be worse for the GOP.