Michigan 10th District (MI-10) Updated

Michigan's 10th District - Congress

Incumbent - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - R+5

GOP Candidate - Candice Miller
Dem Candidate - Henry Yanez

Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%

2004:
Bush - 57%
Kerry – 43%

2000
Bush - 53%
Gore - 45%

This district is a right-populist district that was created to send David Bonior home. The old 10th was a swing district that voted for Regan, GHWB, Clinton, Bush twice, and probably Obama, but at the same time kept voting narrowly for David Bonior, driving the GOP nuts. This district is still populist, but no longer has the Democrat strongholds of Mt Clemens, Eastpointe, Roseville, nor the competitive areas of Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores. The good news is that this district got Candice Miller, then two term secretary of state to run. She won easily, never getting less than 63%. The bad news is that I think making this district that much more Republican helped cost Joe Knollenberg his seat six years after the fact. If the rest of Sterling Heights (a swing city, but democrat in the South and more Republican in the North) went to Miller instead of Levin, then all of Royal Oak and Berkley could have gone to Sander Levin, and Knollenberg could have taken the rest of Orion and more of the north townships instead, scaring off Peters. I think Miller would have beaten Bonior (assuming he moved one town over) in 2002 in the new district without St Clair Shores (which loves Bonior democrats), Eastpointe, Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens. Lapeer, Huron, and Sanilac Counties would have made the difference, even with St Clair ticket-splitters going his way. 

Candice Miller should be safe here as long as she watches the populist flank. This is a conservative district, but not one that would vote for big business. The thumb is one of the most independent minded areas in the country. Macomb County is still the home of the Reagan Democrat. While Northern Macomb is more Republican, it can't be taken for granted. It was close in 2000, shifted hard right in 2004, and shifted to tossing the bums out in 2006/2008. Macomb loves to toss who they think are bums out, going back to 1984. St Clair County is a swing county that leans somewhat republican, is not adverse to voting for democrats. It's by all accounts an extension of North Macomb in politics, although usually less republican because of the Port Huron area.

This is an area that always needs to be worked hard election time. The best candidates here are populist, strong, anti-establishment, hard working, pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, but also somewhat pro-union, and against bad trade agreements. It's a Jacksonian district.

Here's the latest results for Candice Miller, who is still the current rep. She's won easily in every election,and took all municipalities in 2008.

2008 Election	Miller	Denison	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Huron County	12,269	4,041	366	16,676	8228	73.57%	24.23%	49.34%
Lapeer County	27,969	14,478	1354	43,801	13491	63.85%	33.05%	30.80%
Macomb County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1,965	755	79	2,799	1210	70.20%	26.97%	43.23%
Bruce Twp	3,450	1,178	128	4,756	2272	72.54%	24.77%	47.77%
Chesterfield Twp	13,057	6,993	530	20,580	6064	63.45%	33.98%	29.47%
Harrison Twp	8,739	4,085	330	13,154	4654	66.44%	31.06%	35.38%
Lenox Twp	2,378	1,660	101	4,139	718	57.45%	40.11%	17.35%
Macomb Twp	24,905	11,816	675	37,396	13089	66.60%	31.60%	35.00%
City of Memphis	277	90	20	387	187	71.58%	23.26%	48.32%
City of New Baltimore	3,870	1,830	124	5,824	2040	66.45%	31.42%	35.03%
Ray Twp	1,496	464	51	2,011	1032	74.39%	23.07%	51.32%
City of Richmond	1,839	856	97	2,792	983	65.87%	30.66%	35.21%
Richmond Twp	1,359	432	43	1,834	927	74.10%	23.56%	50.55%
Shelby Twp	24,626	11,044	879	36,549	13582	67.38%	30.22%	37.16%
Sterling Heights:	25,465	15,070	1147	41,682	10395	61.09%	36.15%	24.94%
SH 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 2				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 4				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 15				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 16				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 46				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 47				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 901				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 902				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 903				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
SH 907				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Utica	1,393	808	77	2,278	585	61.15%	35.47%	25.68%
Washington Twp	9,083	3,369	302	12,754	5714	71.22%	26.42%	44.80%
St Clair County	52,280	24,178	2074	78,532	28102	66.57%	30.79%	35.78%
Sanilac County	14,041	5,207	492	19,740	8834	71.13%	26.38%	44.75%
Total	230,461	108,354	8,869	347,684	122107	66.28%	31.16%	35.12%

Bush won this district by decent margin in 2000 and easily in 2004. Miller has more of Sterling Heights than Levin, so I used the Levin precincts subtracted from the rest of the City.

Here's 2000.

2000 elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Huron County	8,911	6,899	285	16,095	2012	55.37%	42.86%	12.50%
Lapeer County	20,351	15,749	1127	37,227	4602	54.67%	42.31%	12.36%
Macomb County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1,486	989	100	2,575	497	57.71%	38.41%	19.30%
Bruce Twp	2,461	1,494	91	4,046	967	60.83%	36.93%	23.90%
Chesterfield Twp	7,656	7,210	346	15,212	446	50.33%	47.40%	2.93%
Harrison Twp	5,608	5,111	242	10,961	497	51.16%	46.63%	4.53%
Lenox Twp	1,300	1,335	55	2,690	-35	48.33%	49.63%	-1.30%
Macomb Twp	12,363	10,249	325	22,937	2114	53.90%	44.68%	9.22%
City of Memphis	197	163	11	371	34	53.10%	43.94%	9.16%
City of New Baltimore	1,827	1,659	98	3,584	168	50.98%	46.29%	4.69%
Ray Twp	1,144	711	36	1,891	433	60.50%	37.60%	22.90%
City of Richmond	1,136	1,004	64	2,204	132	51.54%	45.55%	5.99%
Richmond Twp	935	564	42	1,541	371	60.67%	36.60%	24.08%
Shelby Twp	17,109	12,015	706	29,830	5094	57.36%	40.28%	17.08%
Sterling Heights:	26,576	25,158	1177	52,911	1418	50.23%	47.55%	2.68%
SH 1	-429	-508	-22	(959)	79	44.73%	52.97%	-8.24%
SH 2	-505	-513	-36	(1,054)	8	47.91%	48.67%	-0.76%
SH 3	-431	-503	-20	(954)	72	45.18%	52.73%	-7.55%
SH 4	-496	-565	-21	(1,082)	69	45.84%	52.22%	-6.38%
SH 5	-475	-466	-14	(955)	-9	49.74%	48.80%	0.94%
SH 6	-371	-344	-24	(739)	-27	50.20%	46.55%	3.65%
SH 8	-276	-226	-21	(523)	-50	52.77%	43.21%	9.56%
SH 9	-611	-394	-23	(1,028)	-217	59.44%	38.33%	21.11%
SH 10	-289	-276	-16	(581)	-13	49.74%	47.50%	2.24%
SH 13	-324	-335	-21	(680)	11	47.65%	49.26%	-1.62%
SH 15	-427	-383	-14	(824)	-44	51.82%	46.48%	5.34%
SH 16	-351	-381	-19	(751)	30	46.74%	50.73%	-3.99%
SH 46	-355	-339	-14	(708)	-16	50.14%	47.88%	2.26%
SH 47	-229	-316	-14	(559)	87	40.97%	56.53%	-15.56%
SH 901	-671	-684	-28	(1,383)	13	48.52%	49.46%	-0.94%
SH 902	-465	-481	-18	(964)	16	48.24%	49.90%	-1.66%
SH 903	-988	-1,064	-28	(2,080)	76	47.50%	51.15%	-3.65%
SH 907	-556	-402	-19	(977)	-154	56.91%	41.15%	15.76%
City of Utica	976	962	50	1,988	14	49.09%	48.39%	0.70%
Washington Twp	5,553	3,512	176	9,241	2041	60.09%	38.00%	22.09%
St Clair County	33,571	33,002	1943	68,516	569	49.00%	48.17%	0.83%
Sanilac County	10,966	7,153	467	18,586	3813	59.00%	38.49%	20.52%
Total	151,877	126,759	6,969	285,605	25118	53.18%	44.38%	8.79%

And 2004. You can see the shift here and how independent the electorate is here, especially when 2008 comes in the picture. Watch the thumb areas in particular.

2004 elections	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Huron County	9,671	7,629	166	17,466	2042	55.37%	43.68%	11.69%
Lapeer County	25,556	18,086	505	44,147	7470	57.89%	40.97%	16.92%
Macomb County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1,797	1,062	37	2,896	735	62.05%	36.67%	25.38%
Bruce Twp	2,976	1,731	48	4,755	1245	62.59%	36.40%	26.18%
Chesterfield Twp	10,533	8,853	197	19,583	1680	53.79%	45.21%	8.58%
Harrison Twp	6,946	5,906	123	12,975	1040	53.53%	45.52%	8.02%
Lenox Twp	1,890	1,736	28	3,654	154	51.72%	47.51%	4.21%
Macomb Twp	19,496	14,342	244	34,082	5154	57.20%	42.08%	15.12%
City of Memphis	227	170	5	402	57	56.47%	42.29%	14.18%
City of New Baltimore	3,103	2,440	50	5,593	663	55.48%	43.63%	11.85%
Ray Twp	1,315	707	15	2,037	608	64.56%	34.71%	29.85%
City of Richmond	1,610	1,177	33	2,820	433	57.09%	41.74%	15.35%
Richmond Twp	1,156	674	24	1,854	482	62.35%	36.35%	26.00%
Shelby Twp	20,921	13,452	335	34,708	7469	60.28%	38.76%	21.52%
Sterling Heights:	30,885	28,697	641	60,223	2188	51.28%	47.65%	3.63%
SH 1	-402	-496	-8	(906)	94	44.37%	54.75%	-10.38%
SH 2	-502	-546	-8	(1,056)	44	47.54%	51.70%	-4.17%
SH 3	-454	-551	-9	(1,014)	97	44.77%	54.34%	-9.57%
SH 4	-668	-795	-9	(1,472)	127	45.38%	54.01%	-8.63%
SH 5	-465	-494	-9	(968)	29	48.04%	51.03%	-3.00%
SH 6	-592	-551	-6	(1,149)	-41	51.52%	47.95%	3.57%
SH 8	-297	-214	-8	(519)	-83	57.23%	41.23%	15.99%
SH 9	-552	-459	-4	(1,015)	-93	54.38%	45.22%	9.16%
SH 10	-496	-471	-15	(982)	-25	50.51%	47.96%	2.55%
SH 13	-170	-144	-9	(323)	-26	52.63%	44.58%	8.05%
SH 15	-463	-485	-11	(959)	22	48.28%	50.57%	-2.29%
SH 16	-343	-467	-6	(816)	124	42.03%	57.23%	-15.20%
SH 46	-478	-592	-8	(1,078)	114	44.34%	54.92%	-10.58%
SH 47	-257	-335	-7	(599)	78	42.90%	55.93%	-13.02%
SH 901	-706	-768	-12	(1,486)	62	47.51%	51.68%	-4.17%
SH 902	-165	-164	-5	(334)	-1	49.40%	49.10%	0.30%
SH 903	-60	-68	-1	(129)	8	46.51%	52.71%	-6.20%
SH 907	-1,330	-1,208	-31	(2,569)	-122	51.77%	47.02%	4.75%
City of Utica	1,147	1,077	24	2,248	70	51.02%	47.91%	3.11%
Washington Twp	7,526	4,300	101	11,927	3226	63.10%	36.05%	27.05%
St Clair County	42,740	36,174	829	79,743	6566	53.60%	45.36%	8.23%
Sanilac County	12,632	7,883	248	20,763	4749	60.84%	37.97%	22.87%
Total	193,727	147,288	3,487	344,502	46439	56.23%	42.75%	13.48%

McCain struggled here as he did in all of the state, but he did win this district, one of three won.

2008 Elections	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Huron County	8,434	8,367	374	17,175	67	49.11%	48.72%	0.39%
Lapeer County	22,831	21,457	1074	45,362	1374	50.33%	47.30%	3.03%
Macomb County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1,604	1,252	67	2,923	352	54.88%	42.83%	12.04%
Bruce Twp	2,854	2,071	76	5,001	783	57.07%	41.41%	15.66%
Chesterfield Twp	10,019	11,050	398	21,467	-1031	46.67%	51.47%	-4.80%
Harrison Twp	6,610	6,726	244	13,580	-116	48.67%	49.53%	-0.85%
Lenox Twp	1,880	2,369	70	4,319	-489	43.53%	54.85%	-11.32%
Macomb Twp	19,579	18,952	504	39,035	627	50.16%	48.55%	1.61%
City of Memphis	227	154	12	393	73	57.76%	39.19%	18.58%
City of New Baltimore	3,003	2,971	101	6,075	32	49.43%	48.91%	0.53%
Ray Twp	1,296	780	52	2,128	516	60.90%	36.65%	24.25%
City of Richmond	1,454	1,378	44	2,876	76	50.56%	47.91%	2.64%
Richmond Twp	1,142	723	41	1,906	419	59.92%	37.93%	21.98%
Shelby Twp	20,607	16,877	677	38,161	3730	54.00%	44.23%	9.77%
Sterling Heights:	27,510	32,009	1083	60,602	-4499	45.39%	52.82%	-7.42%
SH 1	-330	-511	-8	(849)	181	38.87%	60.19%	-21.32%
SH 2	-438	-517	-10	(965)	79	45.39%	53.58%	-8.19%
SH 3	-383	-624	-21	(1,028)	241	37.26%	60.70%	-23.44%
SH 4	-567	-844	-14	(1,425)	277	39.79%	59.23%	-19.44%
SH 5	-353	-571	-14	(938)	218	37.63%	60.87%	-23.24%
SH 6	-482	-614	-15	(1,111)	132	43.38%	55.27%	-11.88%
SH 8	-248	-262	-11	(521)	14	47.60%	50.29%	-2.69%
SH 9	-450	-476	-6	(932)	26	48.28%	51.07%	-2.79%
SH 10	-393	-484	-24	(901)	91	43.62%	53.72%	-10.10%
SH 13	-137	-185	-4	(326)	48	42.02%	56.75%	-14.72%
SH 15	-352	-553	-9	(914)	201	38.51%	60.50%	-21.99%
SH 16	-255	-475	-12	(742)	220	34.37%	64.02%	-29.65%
SH 46	-384	-671	-20	(1,075)	287	35.72%	62.42%	-26.70%
SH 47	-200	-307	-8	(515)	107	38.83%	59.61%	-20.78%
SH 901	-725	-796	-29	(1,550)	71	46.77%	51.35%	-4.58%
SH 902	-203	-210	-3	(416)	7	48.80%	50.48%	-1.68%
SH 903	-68	-61	-2	(131)	-7	51.91%	46.56%	5.34%
SH 907	-1,369	-1,369	-31	(2,769)	0	49.44%	49.44%	0.00%
City of Utica	1,099	1,288	60	2,447	-189	44.91%	52.64%	-7.72%
Washington Twp	7,741	5,392	213	13,346	2349	58.00%	40.40%	17.60%
St Clair County	38,536	40,677	1587	80,800	-2141	47.69%	50.34%	-2.65%
Sanilac County	10,679	9,047	473	20,199	1632	52.87%	44.79%	8.08%
Total	179,768	174,010	6,909	360,687	5758	49.84%	48.24%	1.60%

This whole area is susceptable to voting shifts, although they are consistent and similar in their politics. North Macomb about 1% less GOP than the thumb (minus Tuscola County which probably wouldn't alter the numbers much)

Comparing by area.
Macomb County Portion:
Bush 53.78%, Gore 44.05%, 145181 votes, 14122 vote spread
Bush 56.54%, Kerry 42.50%, 182383 votes, 25612 vote spread
McCain 50.36%, Obama 47.91%, 197151 votes, 4826 vote spread

Thumb:
Bush 53.02%, Gore 44.31%, 149,665 votes, 13037 vote spread
Bush 55.88%, Kerry 43.04%, 162119 votes, 20827 vote spread
McCain 49.21%, Obama 48.67%, 163536 votes, 932 vote spread
The Farm Club here favors the democrats due to the number of close and even republican seats that flipped this way on the local level. Some of them open up with term limits.

St. Senate 31 - Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Sanilac and Tuscola is in the district. This district opens up with Jim Barcia termed out. It should be a very close race in 2010. Barcia ran way ahead of the partisan numbers here due to his personal popularity and pro-gun, pro-life, and trade stances while in Congress.

St Senate 31st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Nuncio/Barcia	23,569	78,923	1441	103,933	-55354	22.68%	75.94%	-53.26%
02 - Green/Barcia	35,486	54,352		89,838	-18866	39.50%	60.50%	-21.00%

St Senate 25 - Covers Lapeer and St Clair Counties - This is another open seat in 2010. Jud Gilbert is the senator. This is a district that has some republican leanings, is one the democrats usually think they can win. Lapeer County has some GOP leanings, and St Clair County is usually close and often leans GOP (but went for Obama), but has a democrat base in Port Huron. 06 was a little too close to comfort here.

St. Senate 25th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Gilbert/Orr	49,272	43,935	2469	95,676	5337	51.50%	45.92%	5.58%
06 - Gilbert/Hamilton	43,806	34,517		78,323	9289	55.93%	44.07%	11.86%

St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp,  Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.

St Senate 11th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Sanborn/Jenkins	65543	42279	2903	110,725	23264	59.19%	38.18%	21.01%
02 - Sanborn/Ayres	55859	26365		82,224	29494	67.94%	32.06%	35.87%

St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.

St Senate 10th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Horton/Switalski	30,067	62,737	2596	95,400	-32670	31.52%	65.76%	-34.25%
02 - Rice/Switalski	36,424	42,822	1462	80,708	-6398	45.13%	53.06%	-7.93%

St. House 84th - Covers Huron and Tuscola Counties. This is a competitive district in the thumb. It was Mike Green's district, then Tom Meyer's district. Meyer narrowly won in 2002 as an incumbent. Terry Brown then won the district as an open seat. This is a seat that will need to be picked up for the GOP to retake the Michigan House.

St Rep 84th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Kabot/Brown	15,321	28,192		43,513	-12871	35.21%	64.79%	-29.58%
06 - Hunt/Brown	17,374	18,422		35,796	-1048	48.54%	51.46%	-2.93%
04 - Meyer/Montle	27,917	15,183	783	43,883	12734	63.62%	34.60%	29.02%
02 - Meyer/Kern	16,905	13,784	325	31,014	3121	54.51%	44.44%	10.06%

St House 83 - Covers Sanilac County, and Burtchville Twp, Fort Gratiot, and the City of Port Huron in St Clair County. This is a competitive district that was choked badly in 2004 for several reasons that don't need to be rehashed here, but should be remembered by the strategy department at state party. Sanilac County is quite conservative, but will vote for a local democrat. Port Huron leans democrat. This is a district we should take back with John Espinoza termed out, but I don't expect it to be easy.

St Rep 83rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Kearns/Espinoza	13,848	25,808		39,656	-11960	34.92%	65.08%	-30.16%
06 - Smith/Espinoza	8,246	22,616		30,862	-14370	26.72%	73.28%	-46.56%
04 - Muxlow/Espinoza	17,844	22,256		40,100	-4412	44.50%	55.50%	-11.00%
02 - Ehardt/Schultz	17,268	9,520		26,788	7748	64.46%	35.54%	28.92%

St House 82 - Covers Lapeer County - Leans GOP.

St Rep 82nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Daley/Marquardt	24,655	18,406		43,061	6249	57.26%	42.74%	14.51%
06 - Stahl/Harrand	18,629	15,021	1288	34,938	3608	53.32%	42.99%	10.33%
04 - Stahl/Okasinski	24,292	16,215	1529	42,036	8077	57.79%	38.57%	19.21%
02 - Stahl/Knuth	16,464	10,288	1159	27,911	6176	58.99%	36.86%	22.13%

St House 81 - Covers Algonac, Berlin Twp, Brockway Twp, Casco Twp, China Twp, Clay Twp, Clyde Twp, Cottrellville Twp, East China Twp, Emmett Twp, Grant Twp, Greenwood Twp, Kenockee Twp, Lynn Twp, Marine City, City of Marysville, City of Memphis (St Clair Side), Mussey Twp, Port Huron Twp, Riley Twp, City of St Clair, St Clair Twp, and Yale in St Clair County. This is a potentially competitive seat in St Clair County. Most of it leans slightly GOP, but Marysville has a democrat leaning. Phil Pavlov is termed out so this is an open seat.

St Rep 81st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Pavlov/Pencak	30,125	16,757		46,882	13368	64.26%	35.74%	28.51%
06 - Pavlov/Donnellon	22,365	14,816		37,181	7549	60.15%	39.85%	20.30%
04 - Pavlov/Patterson	26,277	20,290		46,567	5987	56.43%	43.57%	12.86%
02 - Hager/Rumsey	20,038	10,114		30,152	9924	66.46%	33.54%	32.91%

St House 36 - Covers Bruce Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp in Macomb County - Probably the most GOP district in Macomb County.

St Rep 36th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Lund/Murphy	30,753	19,905		50,658	10848	60.71%	39.29%	21.41%
06 - Palmer/Murphy	23,620	15,124		38,744	8496	60.96%	39.04%	21.93%
04 - Palmer/Murphy	30,305	16,491		46,796	13814	64.76%	35.24%	29.52%
02 - Palmer/Denison	20,013	9,699		29,712	10314	67.36%	32.64%	34.71%

St House 33 - Covers part of Clinton Twp, Macomb Twp, and Ray Twp - Fairly strong GOP lean, but not overwhelmingly so. This district does not care for company line representatives. In the past this district or a similar one elected Meltzer, Leon Drolet, and David Jaye. It also voted for David Bonior.

St Rep 33rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Meltzer/Prasiloski	32,923	22,765		55,688	10158	59.12%	40.88%	18.24%
06 - Meltzer/Cynowa	21,753	18,838		40,591	2915	53.59%	46.41%	7.18%
04 - Drolet/Cynowa	30,292	19,644		49,936	10648	60.66%	39.34%	21.32%
02 - Drolet/Ventimiglia	17,856	11,822		29,678	6034	60.17%	39.83%	20.33%

St House 32 - Covers Armada Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond Twp in Macomb County, and Columbus Twp, Ira Twp, Kimball Twp, and Wales Twp in St Clair county. This district just flipped in 2008. I would have called it slightly GOP leaning, but Kimball Twp, Lenox Twp, and Chesterfield Twp makes it dangerous. Anything in Macomb and St Clair County is dangerous to a degree, but those areas more so. If the GOP is taking back the state house, it starts here.

St Rep 32nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - J.Accavitti/Hasse	22,455	24,123	1265	47,843	-1668	46.93%	50.42%	-3.49%
06 - D.Acciavatti/Lezotte	21,217	13,847	886	35,950	7370	59.02%	38.52%	20.50%
04 - D.Acciavatti/Landsiedel	28,988	14,131	1006	44,125	14857	65.70%	32.02%	33.67%
02 - D.Acciavatti/Hertel	15,405	11,975		27,380	3430	56.26%	43.74%	12.53%

St Rep 31 -  Covers part of Clinton Twp and Mt Clemens in Macomb County - Slight democrat leaning, made more so by Mt Clemens. The GOP thought they had this one awhile back, but Fred Miller had other plans, keeping this district in the hands of the dems for as long as I've followed the state house. This area is the heart of Bonior country, and it's not going to be easy. It's winnable in the right year though, like the North Warren/South Sterling Heights district.

St Rep 31st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tollis/Miller	12,277	26,404	1263	39,944	-14127	30.74%	66.10%	-35.37%
06 - Tollis/Miller	10,348	18,584	777	29,709	-8236	34.83%	62.55%	-27.72%
04 - Morelli/Miller	16,523	21,274	949	38,746	-4751	42.64%	54.91%	-12.26%
02 - Russo/Gieleghem	9,021	14,663	701	24,385	-5642	36.99%	60.13%	-23.14%

St Rep 30 - Covers Northern Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County- This is a competitive district that has been held by the Rocca's for years. Sal, Sue, and Torry Rocca have represented this district. Tory Rocca is termed out, and it will be interesting to see who takes this. Sterling Heights is more democrat the south you go, so there may be a slight GOP leaning, but I expect this to be close.

St Rep 30th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - T.Rocca/Hughes	25,713	17,150		42,863	8563	59.99%	40.01%	19.98%
06 - T.Rocca/Fessler	19,387	13,066		32,453	6321	59.74%	40.26%	19.48%
04 - T.Rocca/Maceroni	22,725	19,474	2	42,201	3251	53.85%	46.15%	7.70%
02 - S.Rocca/McHugh	17,243	10,392		27,635	6851	62.40%	37.60%	24.79%

St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.

St Rep 25th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Wiecek/J.Switalski	14,285	26,874	1549	42,708	-12589	33.45%	62.92%	-29.48%
06 - StPierre/Bieda	10,151	22,633	794	33,578	-12482	30.23%	67.40%	-37.17%
04 - Wiecek/Bieda	16,269	25,497		41,766	-9228	38.95%	61.05%	-22.09%
02 - Sadowski/Bieda	12,893	16,910		29,803	-4017	43.26%	56.74%	-13.48%

St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?

St Rep 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - B.Brandenbug/Roberts	22,430	23,495	1678	47,603	-1065	47.12%	49.36%	-2.24%
06 - J.Brandenburg/Abella	22,256	14,645	608	37,509	7611	59.34%	39.04%	20.29%
04 - J.Brandenberg/Foukes	29,111	17,317		46,428	11794	62.70%	37.30%	25.40%
02 - J.Brandenburg/Benson	17,694	14,296	1049	33,039	3398	53.55%	43.27%	10.28%

Overall, this district is safe for Candice Miller, and potentially competitive if it opens up. Redistricting can make this interesting as well. Will Bonior attempt a comeback if Warren, Eastpointe, or Roseville are back in. Will this go west from the thumb and take in Bay County. If that's the case, Barcia may try and make a run. He's term limited and held a thumb district. I think the dems will be careful here if they control redistricting. I don't think Stabenow wants to take on Miller in 2012.

There should be some interesting downticket races here in 2010. Oftentimes as Macomb County goes, so does the state.  Watch St Clair County too. It's always competitive.