Thursday, June 30, 2011

Congressional District 10 - Redistricted (MI-10)


Incumbents - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 10
The old 10th district is here

Challengers - Chuck Stadler (D-Vassar)

Update 8-30-2012 - Stadler won his primary.

Update - 5-16-2012 - Two dems are challenging Miller. I don't get why someone filing with a Rochester address is doing so.

This is probably the most unchanged district outside of maybe the 6th district. It doesn't lose anything except part of Sterling Heights which is already split. It picks up most of Tuscola County from Dale Kildee. Other than that, it stays the same. This district has been safe for Candice Miller, and was won by even McCain. I still wouldn't call it "safe" because there's been so much volatility at the local levels. There are plenty of ticket splitters in both Macomb County, and the thumb. Sanilac County will sometimes go 60%+ for candidates in both parties. The Huron/Tuscola district will vote for Mike Green, Jim Barcia, and John Espinoza by big numbers.

Miller has never had a difficult race for Congress running way ahead of Bush and McCain. Even Marlinga lost about 2-1 here. Most of the reps that could make things interesting have been defeated. The only one I see as a major threat off the top of my head is Mark Hackel, who is the new county executive. Hackel lives in Sterling Heights, so he could be in either Macomb County district.Outside of Hackel running, I don't see any competitive races here anytime soon unless Miller runs for Governor or Senate.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 8434 8367 16801 67 50.20% 49.80% 0.40%
Lapeer County 22831 21457 44288 1374 51.55% 48.45% 3.10%
Sanilac County 10679 9047 19726 1632 54.14% 45.86% 8.27%
St Clair County 38536 40677 79213 -2141 48.65% 51.35% -2.70%
Tuscola County 13740 13503 27243 237 50.43% 49.57% 0.87%
Arbela Twp -722 -842 -1564 120 46.16% 53.84% -7.67%
Denmark Twp -1086 -615 -1701 -471 63.84% 36.16% 27.69%
Gilford Twp -246 -177 -423 -69 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Millington Twp -1083 -1182 -2265 99 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Tuscola Twp -665 -428 -1093 -237 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Vassar City -556 -658 -1214 102 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Vassar Twp (part) -874 -966 -1840 92 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1604 1252 2856 352 56.16% 43.84% 12.32%
Bruce Twp 2854 2041 4895 813 58.30% 41.70% 16.61%
Chesterfield Twp 10019 11050 21069 -1031 47.55% 52.45% -4.89%
Harrison Twp 6610 6726 13336 -116 49.57% 50.43% -0.87%
Lenox Twp 1880 2369 4249 -489 44.25% 55.75% -11.51%
Macomb Twp 19579 18952 38531 627 50.81% 49.19% 1.63%
New Baltimore City 3003 2971 5974 32 50.27% 49.73% 0.54%
Ray Twp 1296 780 2076 516 62.43% 37.57% 24.86%
Richmond City 1454 1378 2832 76 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
Richmond Twp 1142 723 1865 419 61.23% 38.77% 22.47%
Shelby Twp 20607 16877 37484 3730 54.98% 45.02% 9.95%
Sterling Heights (1/3) 9078 10563 19641 -1485 46.22% 53.78% -7.56%
Utica City 1099 1228 2327 -129 47.23% 52.77% -5.54%
Washington Twp 7741 5392 13133 2349 58.94% 41.06% 17.89%
Total 176954 170485 347439 6469 50.93% 49.07% 1.86%








2008







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 9671 7629 17300 2042 55.90% 44.10% 11.80%
Lapeer County 25556 18086 43642 7470 58.56% 41.44% 17.12%
Sanilac County 12632 7883 20515 4749 61.57% 38.43% 23.15%
St Clair County 42740 36174 78914 6566 54.16% 45.84% 8.32%
Tuscola County 15389 12631 28020 2758 54.92% 45.08% 9.84%
Arbela Twp -722 -842 -1564 120 46.16% 53.84% -7.67%
Denmark Twp -1086 -615 -1701 -471 63.84% 36.16% 27.69%
Gilford Twp -246 -177 -423 -69 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Millington Twp -1083 -1182 -2265 99 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Tuscola Twp -665 -428 -1093 -237 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Vassar City -556 -658 -1214 102 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Vassar Twp (part) -874 -966 -1840 92 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1797 1062 2859 735 62.85% 37.15% 25.71%
Bruce Twp 2976 1731 4707 1245 63.22% 36.78% 26.45%
Chesterfield Twp 10533 8853 19386 1680 54.33% 45.67% 8.67%
Harrison Twp 6946 5906 12852 1040 54.05% 45.95% 8.09%
Lenox Twp 1890 1736 3626 154 52.12% 47.88% 4.25%
Macomb Twp 19496 14342 33838 5154 57.62% 42.38% 15.23%
New Baltimore City 3103 2440 5543 663 55.98% 44.02% 11.96%
Ray Twp 1315 707 2022 608 65.03% 34.97% 30.07%
Richmond City 1610 1177 2787 433 57.77% 42.23% 15.54%
Richmond Twp 1156 674 1830 482 63.17% 36.83% 26.34%
Shelby Twp 20921 13452 34373 7469 60.86% 39.14% 21.73%
Sterling Heights (1/3) 10192 9470 19662 722 51.84% 48.16% 3.67%
Utica City 1147 1077 2224 70 51.57% 48.43% 3.15%
Washington Twp 7526 4300 11826 3226 63.64% 36.36% 27.28%
Total 191364 144462 335826 46902 56.98% 43.02% 13.97%

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