Congressional District 14 - Updated 2013 (MI-14)

2014 Update - Hansen Clarke came in on filing deadline wanting his old job back. He's got two strong opponents both from Southfield in Rudy Hobbs and Brenda Lawrence. Interesting last name for the Republican here. I wonder if Christina is related to John. That's not all that common of a last name.

MI-14 Update - 2013


The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent  - Open in 2014, Gary Peters running for Senate

Challengers –Christina Conyers (R-Detroit), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), Burgess Foster (D-Detroit), Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield)

2012:
Gary Peters – 222535 – 81.79%
John Hauler  – 38380 – 16.03%
-201687 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney  – 18.44%
Obama – 81.08%

2008:  Approx
McCain – 18.28%
Obama – 81.00%

2004:  approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%


Notes  -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said. 

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac. 


For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)


2008


2004


Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and  black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.

West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.

Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.

Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.

MI-14	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Oakland County
Farmington Hills	17784	26351	44487	-8567	39.98%	59.23%
Keego Harbor	572	666	1251	-94	45.72%	53.24%
Lathrup Village	462	2411	2896	-1949	15.95%	83.25%
Oak Park	2320	12956	15338	-10636	15.13%	84.47%
Orchard Lake	944	537	1490	407	63.36%	36.04%
Pontiac	2464	18964	21545	-16500	11.44%	88.02%
Royal Oak Twp	5	1515	1526	-1510	0.33%	99.28%
Southfield	4420	39052	43664	-34632	10.12%	89.44%
Sylvan Lake	565	551	1126	14	50.18%	48.93%
West Bloomfield	16243	21064	37563	-4821	43.24%	56.08%
WB 2	-809	-777	-1605	-32	50.40%	48.41%
WB 4	-836	-805	-1656	-31	50.48%	48.61%
WB 5	-797	-791	-1602	-6	49.75%	49.38%
WB 8	-1036	-805	-1852	-231	55.94%	43.47%
WB 14	-612	-555	-1178	-57	51.95%	47.11%
WB 25	-845	-753	-1617	-92	52.26%	46.57%
Total	40844	119581	161376	-78737	25.31%	74.10%
Wayne County
Detroit	2708	126784	129862	-124076	2.09%	97.63%
Grosse Pointe	1976	1517	3509	459	56.31%	43.23%
GP Farms	2426	1469	3916	957	61.95%	37.51%
GP Park	3350	3748	7154	-398	46.83%	52.39%
GP Shores	1449	427	1879	1022	77.12%	22.72%
GP Woods	6157	4266	10469	1891	58.81%	40.75%
Hamtramck	535	4788	5376	-4253	9.95%	89.06%
Harper Woods	1626	5906	7577	-4280	21.46%	77.95%
Total	20227	148905	169742	-128678	11.92%	87.72%
Total All	61071	268486	331118	-207415	18.44%	81.08%

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Peters to run in the 14th District

Interesting decision here.

From the Detroit News

Detroit— The races for Congress became clearer Thursday as U.S. Rep. Gary Peters announced he'll challenge for the Democratic nomination in the 14th District and longtime U.S. Rep. John Conyers decided he will run in the new 13th District.

With the state losing a seat in Congress due to population loss, Peters was the odd-man-out as his old 9th District was carved up, leaving him without a seat. Under the same boundaries, Conyers' 14th District was redrawn to include portions of Wayne and Oakland counties, but not much of his traditional base.

Part of the logjam was resolved when U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, announced he'd run in the new 14th District, which includes areas he now represents. That opened the door for speculation about whether Conyers would then run in the 13th, a move that a source close to Conyers confirmed to The News on Thursday.

Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, on Thursday told supporters he'll run for office in the new 14th District.

"… Congressional districts are just lines on a map," Peters, serving his second term in Congress, said in an email to supporters. "I believe that regardless of where we call home, we all want the same things: economic security, fairness from government, and an honest chance to find success and happiness."

"I've spent my life fighting for these values."

Also eying the seat are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Southfield Treasurer Irv Lowenberg.

Lines on a map, Peters? Bad choice of words when describing people's homes. I don't think people would buy that line if I ran for office in the nearby 7th or 11th districts which border Green Oak. The area Peters represents now in this district is Pontiac, Farmington Hills, Orchard Lake, Keego Harbor, and West Bloomfield. He's currently in the 9th along with Sander Levin in a district that's really mostly the old 12th. If I was Peters, I'd have instead mentioned that I represented the people in Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, and Pontiac in Congress, and am running to represent those as well as the new areas of this district.

John Conyers is running in the 13th instead, while Hansen Clarke is running in the 14th. I don't find that controversial as they are in the same city. Detroiters representing Detroit.

However, neither Conyers or Clarke is going to get a free pass. Conyers will be facing State Senator Bert Johnson (Highland Park) and also State Rep Shanelle Jackson (Detroit). There may be others, but those are in so far. I think Conyers is favored, but if someone goes after the Redford/Westland/Garden City/Dearborn Heights votes, this could get interesting. I don't think most of them care for Mr Monica Conyers. I think they would gladly consider a strong alternative candidate.

Clarke I think has a easier battle with Peters who became infamous with his Obamacare vote. If Brenda Lawrence jumps in, I think she'll have a very good chance to win (more as pro-Lawrence rather than anti-Clarke). Peters was able to win last time largely because of Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. Those areas all tilt democrat, but will they vote for Peters over the well known and not very controversial Lawrence? Outside of Bloomfield, I doubt it, and that includes the white folks. Over Clarke? I don't know. Clarke isn't Conyers and doesn't have as much of controversial demeanor to suburbanites. A lot of people don't know who he is, outside of a recent state legislature and the guy who beat Carolyn Kilpatrick. The fact that he beat Kwame's mom gets him some credit in his favor right off the bat.

As a Republican, I don't see a lot of difference between any of them from a voting record standpoint, only in style differences and committee differences. Conyers is on judiciary. Clarke is on science and homeland security. I wouldn't mind seeing a gun grabber off of judiciary. I'd rather see Clarke win than Peters, since Peters doesn't need statewide traction with his ambitions and Oakland County base.

Clarke and Conyers to likely switch districts

This has been rumored for awhile. From Politico

Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) avoided a perilous primary challenge Sunday when neighboring Rep. Hansen Clarke paved the way for the two Michigan Democrats to essentially swap congressional districts ahead of their reelection bids.

The maneuvering came less than two weeks after Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed into law a new congressional map that carved up both Conyers’ and Clarke’s districts in a way that had them each representing many of the others’ constituents — a dynamic that led several Democrats to eye a primary against Conyers. But Clarke, a freshman, announced Sunday that he would run in the 14th District now held by Conyers — something Conyers had been quietly pushing for behind the scenes for weeks.

Here's the map. "Mr Monica" Conyers is in the Palmer Park neighborhood on Detroit's Northwest side. It's in that stretch of the 14th north of Highland Park. The old district was more of a West Side district. Clarke's in the 13th, but will be running in the 14th. He's on Detroit's East side, and a lot of the 14th represents that area. It's not a controversial carpetbagger type of move with their West/East side histories.

I think this is very significant though in regards to the primary. A Democrat will win these districts barring a Bill Jefferson type of situation, but these districts are now about 55% VRA minority districts instead of 65%+ districts. It is conceivable that a non-Detroit candidate, or even a white candidate, can win those districts.

That's more likely in the 14th, with Oakland County and the Grosse Pointes both in that district, being hostile to certain Detroit candidates. Conyers is more outspoken and is perceived as more confrontational in style than Clarke, and is choosing the district strictly in Wayne County and without the Pointes. His primary path is - at least right now, easier than Clarke's. Clarke will have a tougher path on paper, but I think he'd do better in Oakland/Pointes than Conyers. The Pointes lean republican, but will often vote in Democrat primaries in non gubernatorial elections. The state rep seat there is competitive, but the other districts are solidly democrat. They don't like "Mr Monica" Conyers. They didn't like the Barbara Rose Collins. They didn't like Kwame Kilpatrick, and took it out on his mom. Hansen Clarke isn't in that category as far as I know. Conservatives don't like his voting record, but they don't like the voting record of Gary Peters either. These potential primaries are more about style, corruption, and attitude than the actual voting records.

Brenda Lawrence, Southfield mayor, may be running in Clarke's district. Gary Peters (lives in 9th, next door to Pontiac/W.Bloomfield), and Tim Melton (Pontiac or neighboring Auburn Hills) also might run. Another candidate is Bert Johnson, a state senator from the City of Detroit. He planned on running against Conyers, not Clarke. I don't know if he'll change his plans or not. He has won several times as a state legislator though. Other than that, I don't know much about him. I think the biggest factor in how a primary challenge goes will be the mouths of the candidates or their top aides, and how antagonistic each particular candidate is towards suburbs or whitey (not the same thing). With less and less of the district being in Detroit, the key is for there to be a balance in style not ticking off either side too much. This district would favor more Dennis Archer and less Sharon McPhail. That's why I think Clarke would be a much tougher opponent to challenge in this district than "Mr Monica" Conyers. There isn't the level of dislike for Clarke outside of the city as there is for the name Conyers (Or Kilpatrick, Rose-Collins, Coleman A Young). I don't think Peters would win a primary. I think a lot of his core support in Pontiac was due to who he isn't instead of who he is. Melton? Without Auburn Hills, that would be a tougher go for him. Brenda Lawrence would be a very strong challenger however, with Southfield's added significance with Detroit's population drops.

The 13th is more favorable to Conyers with him not having to deal with the Pointes or Oakland County, but it might not be a free pass. He has several white-majority working class suburbs which are democrats and will vote in that party's primary. He wouldn't have to face Brenda Lawrence here, but a guy like Glenn Anderson could give him a tough race. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, Inkster, Dearborn Heights, and Redford are all new to the district. Anderson represented Westland, Garden City, and Redford. Will Detroit former state senator Buzz Thomas (depending on where he lives) go for it? He planned on it before and stepped back. I think Conyers is favored to win a primary, but I don't think it will be a cakewalk.

Keep an eye on the primaries here if there are any. While the incumbents are favored, certain candidates running could make this a very interesting race.

Congressional District 14 - Redistricted (MI-14)

Incumbent - John Conyers (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-13
Years in office as of 2012 election - 48
The old 14th district information is here.

Challenger - John Hauler (R-Grosse Pointe Woods), Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp, incumbent in MI-09)

Update 8-30-2012 - Surprisingly, Peters won. I never thought a white guy could win this district. Clarke won Detroit, but Peters won big in Oakland County, even the black areas there. Peters didn't do bad in Detroit either.

UPDATE 5-1-2012 - Conyers has filed in neighboring MI-13. Clarke has announced he is running in MI-14. It is likely that Brenda Lawrence and Gary Peters are also running here. They have campaigns going, although have not officially turned in their signatures.

Update 5-16-2012 - This is going to be an interesting primary. A lot of the dem establishment is surprisingly to me, lining up for Gary Peters the yesman. I just can't see a white guy from Bloomfield having a prayer in a Detroit based district, especially with Brenda Lawrence running in Southfield. A white guy from Detroit? Maybe. A black guy from Bloomfield? Less likely, but possible. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'll be shocked if Peters wins, especially against someone like Clarke instead of Conyers, who has a history of doing well in white areas with his nice guy image. Waters would have been a stronger candidate a few years back pre-scandal. Lawrence I think is a much stronger candidate than people think. My money is still on Clarke. Clarke may have been in another district, but he's represented the East Side.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district.

Say what you want about John Conyers, but he's a survivor. He got his start as Dingell's aide, probably back when Dingell represented Detroit. He's been his colleague for 48 years.

The old 14th district was Detroit, and much of downriver. The new 14th picks up the Grosse Pointes, much to their chagrin (avoiding a Macomb/Wayne County break). It also goes across 8 Mile Road into Oakland County due to migration. It picks up black majority Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township from Sander Levin. It then picks up Farmington Hills and most of West Bloomfield from the old 9th district. Orchard Lake and Keego Harbor are added as well, and probably aren't very about this. Pontiac is over 50% minority and is added to this district as well.

This is one of the two safest districts in the state for the dems.

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.

Michigan 14th District (MI-14) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 14th District - Congress

Incumbent - John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 46
Cook District Numbers - D+34

GOP Candidates - Don Ukrainec
Dem Candidate - John Conyers

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 87%
McCain - 12%

2004:
Kerry - 83%
Bush - 17%

2000
Gore - 81%
Bush - 18%


This is one of two black majority "Voting Rights Act" districts in Michigan. The other one is the 13th district which is held by Carolyn Kilpatrick. It covers about 1/2 of the City of Detroit, Allen Park, much of Dearborn, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Township, Hamtramck, Highland Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, and Trenton.

This is generally the "west side" district and is represented by John Conyers. Conyers only had third party opposition in 2008.

This is an 80%+ democrat district. Detroit itself is consistently 93% democrat - most in the entire country. I'm not going to number crunch this district. I'll get to the farm club here when I go over Wayne County in the county updates. There's only one possibly competitive district here, and that is a far downriver district which I'll cover when I go over the 15th District.

Updated 5-18-2010 - I'm somewhat surprised Conyers isn't getting a primary after the whole Monica Conyers fiasco in Detroit City Hall. It's too bad we have straight ticket crap voting by lazy people. That hurts us bad here.