Congressional District 14 - Updated 2013 (MI-14)

2014 Update - Hansen Clarke came in on filing deadline wanting his old job back. He's got two strong opponents both from Southfield in Rudy Hobbs and Brenda Lawrence. Interesting last name for the Republican here. I wonder if Christina is related to John. That's not all that common of a last name.

MI-14 Update - 2013


The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent  - Open in 2014, Gary Peters running for Senate

Challengers –Christina Conyers (R-Detroit), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), Burgess Foster (D-Detroit), Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield)

2012:
Gary Peters – 222535 – 81.79%
John Hauler  – 38380 – 16.03%
-201687 vote difference

Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney  – 18.44%
Obama – 81.08%

2008:  Approx
McCain – 18.28%
Obama – 81.00%

2004:  approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%


Notes  -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said. 

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac. 


For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)


2008


2004


Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and  black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.

West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.

Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.

Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.

MI-14	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Oakland County
Farmington Hills	17784	26351	44487	-8567	39.98%	59.23%
Keego Harbor	572	666	1251	-94	45.72%	53.24%
Lathrup Village	462	2411	2896	-1949	15.95%	83.25%
Oak Park	2320	12956	15338	-10636	15.13%	84.47%
Orchard Lake	944	537	1490	407	63.36%	36.04%
Pontiac	2464	18964	21545	-16500	11.44%	88.02%
Royal Oak Twp	5	1515	1526	-1510	0.33%	99.28%
Southfield	4420	39052	43664	-34632	10.12%	89.44%
Sylvan Lake	565	551	1126	14	50.18%	48.93%
West Bloomfield	16243	21064	37563	-4821	43.24%	56.08%
WB 2	-809	-777	-1605	-32	50.40%	48.41%
WB 4	-836	-805	-1656	-31	50.48%	48.61%
WB 5	-797	-791	-1602	-6	49.75%	49.38%
WB 8	-1036	-805	-1852	-231	55.94%	43.47%
WB 14	-612	-555	-1178	-57	51.95%	47.11%
WB 25	-845	-753	-1617	-92	52.26%	46.57%
Total	40844	119581	161376	-78737	25.31%	74.10%
Wayne County
Detroit	2708	126784	129862	-124076	2.09%	97.63%
Grosse Pointe	1976	1517	3509	459	56.31%	43.23%
GP Farms	2426	1469	3916	957	61.95%	37.51%
GP Park	3350	3748	7154	-398	46.83%	52.39%
GP Shores	1449	427	1879	1022	77.12%	22.72%
GP Woods	6157	4266	10469	1891	58.81%	40.75%
Hamtramck	535	4788	5376	-4253	9.95%	89.06%
Harper Woods	1626	5906	7577	-4280	21.46%	77.95%
Total	20227	148905	169742	-128678	11.92%	87.72%
Total All	61071	268486	331118	-207415	18.44%	81.08%

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Peters to run in the 14th District

Interesting decision here.

From the Detroit News

Detroit— The races for Congress became clearer Thursday as U.S. Rep. Gary Peters announced he'll challenge for the Democratic nomination in the 14th District and longtime U.S. Rep. John Conyers decided he will run in the new 13th District.

With the state losing a seat in Congress due to population loss, Peters was the odd-man-out as his old 9th District was carved up, leaving him without a seat. Under the same boundaries, Conyers' 14th District was redrawn to include portions of Wayne and Oakland counties, but not much of his traditional base.

Part of the logjam was resolved when U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, announced he'd run in the new 14th District, which includes areas he now represents. That opened the door for speculation about whether Conyers would then run in the 13th, a move that a source close to Conyers confirmed to The News on Thursday.

Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, on Thursday told supporters he'll run for office in the new 14th District.

"… Congressional districts are just lines on a map," Peters, serving his second term in Congress, said in an email to supporters. "I believe that regardless of where we call home, we all want the same things: economic security, fairness from government, and an honest chance to find success and happiness."

"I've spent my life fighting for these values."

Also eying the seat are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Southfield Treasurer Irv Lowenberg.

Lines on a map, Peters? Bad choice of words when describing people's homes. I don't think people would buy that line if I ran for office in the nearby 7th or 11th districts which border Green Oak. The area Peters represents now in this district is Pontiac, Farmington Hills, Orchard Lake, Keego Harbor, and West Bloomfield. He's currently in the 9th along with Sander Levin in a district that's really mostly the old 12th. If I was Peters, I'd have instead mentioned that I represented the people in Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, and Pontiac in Congress, and am running to represent those as well as the new areas of this district.

John Conyers is running in the 13th instead, while Hansen Clarke is running in the 14th. I don't find that controversial as they are in the same city. Detroiters representing Detroit.

However, neither Conyers or Clarke is going to get a free pass. Conyers will be facing State Senator Bert Johnson (Highland Park) and also State Rep Shanelle Jackson (Detroit). There may be others, but those are in so far. I think Conyers is favored, but if someone goes after the Redford/Westland/Garden City/Dearborn Heights votes, this could get interesting. I don't think most of them care for Mr Monica Conyers. I think they would gladly consider a strong alternative candidate.

Clarke I think has a easier battle with Peters who became infamous with his Obamacare vote. If Brenda Lawrence jumps in, I think she'll have a very good chance to win (more as pro-Lawrence rather than anti-Clarke). Peters was able to win last time largely because of Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. Those areas all tilt democrat, but will they vote for Peters over the well known and not very controversial Lawrence? Outside of Bloomfield, I doubt it, and that includes the white folks. Over Clarke? I don't know. Clarke isn't Conyers and doesn't have as much of controversial demeanor to suburbanites. A lot of people don't know who he is, outside of a recent state legislature and the guy who beat Carolyn Kilpatrick. The fact that he beat Kwame's mom gets him some credit in his favor right off the bat.

As a Republican, I don't see a lot of difference between any of them from a voting record standpoint, only in style differences and committee differences. Conyers is on judiciary. Clarke is on science and homeland security. I wouldn't mind seeing a gun grabber off of judiciary. I'd rather see Clarke win than Peters, since Peters doesn't need statewide traction with his ambitions and Oakland County base.

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)

Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1431	2462	3893	-1031	36.76%	63.24%	-26.48%
Clinton Twp	21133	27722	48855	-6589	43.26%	56.74%	-13.49%
Eastpointe	4670	11182	15852	-6512	29.46%	70.54%	-41.08%
Fraser	3601	4161	7762	-560	46.39%	53.61%	-7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	27	13	40	14	67.50%	32.50%	35.00%
Mt Clemens	2393	5171	7564	-2778	31.64%	68.36%	-36.73%
Roseville	7679	13739	21418	-6060	35.85%	64.15%	-28.29%
St Clair Shores	16098	18531	34629	-2433	46.49%	53.51%	-7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	18157	21126	39283	-2969	46.22%	53.78%	-7.56%
Warren	24006	36901	60907	-12895	39.41%	60.59%	-21.17%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	3560	5715	9275	-2155	38.38%	61.62%	-23.23%
Bloomfield Twp	14368	12886	27254	1482	52.72%	47.28%	5.44%
Clawson (1/5)	600	782	1382	-182	43.42%	56.58%	-13.17%
Ferndale	2621	8532	11153	-5911	23.50%	76.50%	-53.00%
Hazel Park	2279	4461	6740	-2182	33.81%	66.19%	-32.37%
Huntington Woods	1041	3255	4296	-2214	24.23%	75.77%	-51.54%
Madison Heights	5088	8017	13105	-2929	38.82%	61.18%	-22.35%
Pleasant Ridge	512	1311	1823	-799	28.09%	71.91%	-43.83%
Royal Oak	13094	21650	34744	-8556	37.69%	62.31%	-24.63%
Southfield Twp	4570	4925	9495	-355	48.13%	51.87%	-3.74%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	146928	212542	359470	-65614	40.87%	59.13%	-18.25%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1613	2312	3925	-699	41.10%	58.90%	-17.81%
Clinton Twp	23332	23842	47174	-510	49.46%	50.54%	-1.08%
Eastpointe	5838	9766	15604	-3928	37.41%	62.59%	-25.17%
Fraser	3893	3959	7852	-66	49.58%	50.42%	-0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	33	15	48	18	68.75%	31.25%	37.50%
Mt Clemens	2766	4419	7185	-1653	38.50%	61.50%	-23.01%
Roseville	8660	12738	21398	-4078	40.47%	59.53%	-19.06%
St Clair Shores	17512	18088	35600	-576	49.19%	50.81%	-1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	20385	18941	39326	1444	51.84%	48.16%	3.67%
Warren	26991	34697	61688	-7706	43.75%	56.25%	-12.49%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	4315	5027	9342	-712	46.19%	53.81%	-7.62%
Bloomfield Twp	16314	11197	27511	5117	59.30%	40.70%	18.60%
Clawson (1/5)	716	694	1410	22	50.78%	49.22%	1.56%
Ferndale	3456	7637	11093	-4181	31.15%	68.85%	-37.69%
Hazel Park	2780	4412	7192	-1632	38.65%	61.35%	-22.69%
Huntington Woods	1236	3068	4304	-1832	28.72%	71.28%	-42.57%
Madison Heights	5934	7443	13377	-1509	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Pleasant Ridge	658	1140	1798	-482	36.60%	63.40%	-26.81%
Royal Oak	15529	19143	34672	-3614	44.79%	55.21%	-10.42%
Southfield Twp	5245	4376	9621	869	54.52%	45.48%	9.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	167206	192914	360120	-25708	46.43%	53.57%	-7.14%
	Volaric	Levin	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	876	1405	2281	-529	38.40%	61.60%	-23.19%
Clinton Twp	14475	14784	29259	-309	49.47%	50.53%	-1.06%
Eastpointe	2859	6438	9297	-3579	30.75%	69.25%	-38.50%
Fraser	2423	2345	4768	78	50.82%	49.18%	1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	21	12	33	9	63.64%	36.36%	27.27%
Mt Clemens	1597	2785	4382	-1188	36.44%	63.56%	-27.11%
Roseville	4663	7051	11714	-2388	39.81%	60.19%	-20.39%
St Clair Shores	11182	11898	23080	-716	48.45%	51.55%	-3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	5003	5385	10388	-382	48.16%	51.84%	-3.68%
Warren	15443	20860	36303	-5417	42.54%	57.46%	-14.92%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	1649	4693	6342	-3044	26.00%	74.00%	-48.00%
Hazel Park	1263	2034	3297	-771	38.31%	61.69%	-23.38%
Huntington Woods	763	2440	3203	-1677	23.82%	76.18%	-52.36%
Madison Heights	3240	4089	7329	-849	44.21%	55.79%	-11.58%
Pleasant Ridge	403	930	1333	-527	30.23%	69.77%	-39.53%
Royal Oak	732	1148	1880	-416	38.94%	61.06%	-22.13%
Southfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	66592	88297	154889	-21705	42.99%	57.01%	-14.01%

Peters in trouble in the 9th district (MI-09)

Ouch. I got this in an email from the Paul Welday campaign.

In the initial trial ballot test asked before any information was provided about either candidate, Peters led Welday by only 44%-43%.  After hearing about Peters’ votes in favor of the healthcare bill, Cap and Trade, and the Obama Stimulus Package, Welday leads Peters, 44%-40%.  The survey shows Peters is very vulnerable to defeat in his campaign for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010.

The results come from a telephone poll of 300 likely voters conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. March 31st – April 1st and April 5th – 6th, 2010.  It is the first poll conducted in the district.

Mitchell is one of the better pollsters in the state.

I'd like to see the head to head polls between Rocky Raczkowski and Peters, and Gene Goodman and Peters as well for a comparison. Those wern't released. That tells me that I think this could be a "triple whammy" like what Harry Reid faces so far in Nevada. Losing against everybody.

While I support Rocky Raczkowski in this race, this poll is very encouraging for the general election. Paul Welday would do a much better job in Congress than the yesman Gary Peters.

Remember these votes. Defeat Stupak. Defeat Schauer. Defeat Peters.

While Bart Stupak in the first district (MI-01) is dominating the headlines for his flip on this bill, he's not the only democrat who voted for this here in Michigan. Five of them are in 60% Democrat seats and would be extremely difficult to defeat. It's still worth a shot this year, but I expect them to survive unless we have a 1994 type year. Dale Kildee in MI-05, John Conyers (Detroit), Carolyn Kilpatrick (Detroit), Sander Levin (Southern Oakland and Macomb Counties), and John Dingell (Ann Arbor, Downriver).

Two others that need the heat are Mark Schauer in the 7th District (MI-07), and Gary Peters in the 9th District (MI-09). These are difficult, but winnable districts. Bush won twice in both of these districts. With the dip in 2006 and 2008 over thanks to Bush's retirement, I like the chances for taking these seats back with Obama's overreach.

Mark Schauer is a yesman with no original thought of his own except those given by his masters. Pelosi and Obama. He also received the endorsement of NARAL already. That is not a good district for someone to be rabidly pro-abortion like Schauer. He needs to be shown the door, and Tim Walberg is the man to do it.

Gary Peters is much like Schauer. His economic leftism is not a good fit for the 9th district, and when they get taxed up the wazoo with the surcharges, there should be hell to pay. Peters needs to be shown the door and Rocky Raczkowski who has won three difficult races in Farmington Hills, is the man to do it.

Stupak needs to go, but so does Schauer and Peters. Don't forget them.

House just voted to raise debt 1.9 Trillion. Gary Peters was for it before being against it.

A round of Bronx Cheers and boo birds go to the US House today. They voted 217-212 to raise the debt ceiling nearly $2 Trillion more dollars. Obama will sign this, proving that he is no fiscal conservative.

From the AP

The House on Thursday voted to allow the government to go $1.9 trillion deeper in debt — or about $6,000 more for every U.S. resident. The measure, approved 217-212, would raise the cap on federal borrowing to $14.3 trillion. That's enough to keep Congress from having to vote again before the November elections on an issue that is feeding a sense among voters that the government is spending too much and putting future generations under a mountain of debt to do it.
Already, the accumulated debt amounts to roughly $40,000 per person. And the debt is increasingly held by foreign nations such as China.
Passage of the bill would send it to President Barack Obama, who will sign it to avoid a first-ever, market-rattling default on U.S. obligations.
"I can't think of a more reckless or irresponsible act. Defaulting is not an option," said Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass. "If the United States defaults, investors will lose confidence that the U.S. will honor its debts in the future.
Democrats barely passed it through the Senate last week over a unanimous "no" vote from GOP members present.

And we have this half-arsed measure.

To help win passage, Democrats are also adopting — in a vote later Thursday afternoon — budget rules designed to curb a spiraling upward annual deficit — projected by Obama to hit a record $1.56 trillion for the budget year ending Sept. 30. The new rules would require future spending increases or tax cuts to be paid for with either cuts to other programs or equivalent tax increases.

Pay as you go, as this is referred to, is overrated. It doesn't do much. We don't need a pay as you go program. We need government to spend less money than it takes in period. 

If the rules are broken, the White House budget office would force automatic cuts to programs like Medicare, farm subsidies and unemployment insurance. Current rules lack such teeth and have commonly been waived over the past few years at a cost of almost $1 trillion.
Most other benefit programs — including Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps — would be exempt from such cuts, and Republicans said that the rules lack teeth.
"In place of real fiscal discipline, it offers a phony pay-as-you-go rule that is more loopholes and exceptions and does nothing to tackle our government's long-term structural deficit," said Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas.
Skeptics say lawmakers also will find ways around the new rules fairly easily. Congress, for example, can declare some spending an "emergency" — a likely scenario for votes later this month to extend jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed.

In other words, the supposed safeguards are smoke and mirrors. It was thrown in because this is unpopular, and those who voted for it can pat themselves on the back and say they are watching the spending. In reality, they are doing jack.

"We don't have a choice," said Rep. John Tanner, D-Tenn. "We are on an unsustainable march toward a fiscal Armageddon." Obama's budget projects the government's debt doubling to $26 trillion over the next decade. It offers few solutions for seriously closing the gap other than promising to appoint a bipartisan commission to come up with a plan to address the problem.

Commissions. Another joke. How about passing a budget that spends less money than it takes in. Period. That's it. It's not hard. All it takes is discipline, hard works, and balls. That's something that congress lacks, and that Obama never had.  

Thomas has the roll call vote. 217 yes votes. All democrats. 212 nays. 175 Republican and 37 democrat. 5 didn't vote, 2 democrats and 3 republicans.

Of the Michigan delegation.

District 1 - Stupak - Y
District 2 - Hoekstra - N
District 3 - Ehlers - N
District 4 - Camp - N
District 5 - Kildee - Y
District 6 - Upton - N
District 7 - Schauer - N
District 8 - Rogers - N
District 9 - Peters - N
District 10 - Miller - N
District 11 - McCotter - N
District 12 - Levin - Y
District 13 - Kilpatrick - Y
District 14 - Conyers - Y
District 15 - Dingell - Y

Mark Schauer and Gary Peters voted no. Feeling the heat from the populace? Or are you being chameleons? In reality, the no vote from Gary Peters was crap. Schauer's wasn't, and give credit where it is due. Peters however was for it before he was against it. Here's the procedure vote to consider the resolution in the first place. Peters voted yes to consider this, and then voted no for the final vote to make himself  look good.

If you're for big spending and debt, at least have the "Peter" to be for it both times it is up. At least Dingell is honest about his spending. Gary Peters is just a coward and I hope the voters of the 9th District send him home for his waste of money.

Michigan 9th District (MI-09) Updated

Edit 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 9th District - Congress

Incumbent - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2
Cook District Numbers - D+2

GOP Candidates - Andrew Rocky Raczkowski
Dem Candidate - Gary Peters

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 56%
McCain - 43%

2004:
Bush - 51%
Kerry – 49%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%

I said a long time ago that the redistricters had their heads up their butts when they drew this district. This district made things difficult for Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg had a history of running much further ahead of the top of the ticket. He had a difficult district in the 1990's that included Southfield, which has gone from voting for Dukakis by 5000 votes to voting for Obama by 33,000 votes. Southfield used to be largely Catholic and Jewish with some blacks in the 1980's. Now, it's mostly black. Southfield was rightly given to Sander Levin's district. Knollenberg had to take Pontiac. That along makes up a 15,000 deficit. What was very bleeping stupid is Levin giving of Royal Oak to Knollenberg. Why? Royal Oak was blue and getting bluer for years. Levin should have kept Royal Oak, and give the rest of Sterling Heights to Miller. Knollenberg could have taken some of those northern townships from Mike Rogers instead. If that was the case, he'd possibly still be in office protecting the auto industry.

The 9th District is all in Oakland County. It contains Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Farmington Hills, Farmington, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Oakland Twp, Orchard Lake, part of Orion Twp, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Royal Oak, Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Sylvan Lake, Troy, part of Waterford Twp, and West Bloomfield.

Knollenberg's secret is running even in West Bloomfield, and winning Farmington Hills, while racking up big margins in the Bloomfields to overcome Pontiac (and Southfield in the old district). It worked for a long time.

Most of the 9th comes from the old 11th district which Knollenberg represented. It went for Clinton and Gore, so the old 11th was more democrat than the current 9th. The rest was from mostly republican areas in the old 9th and 12th districts, except Royal Oak and Pontiac are major exceptions. I think the republicans were more interesting in hurting David Bonior than they were helping Knollenberg. They wanted most of Bonior's old base in Levin's district. If they gave Royal Oak and Berkley to Levin, it would probably put Clinton Twp or the Southern part of Sterling Heights with Miller's district. I'd have taken that trade in a minute. Then again, it wasn't my call. There were a lot of internal redistricting battles that hurt a few reps who wanted to run.

Current 9th District:
Auburn Hills - Was in old 9th
Berkley - Was in old 12th
Birmingham - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Hills - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Twp - Was in old 11th
Clawson - Was in old 12th
Farmington Hills - Was in old 11th
Farmington - Was in old 11th
Keego Harbor - Was in old 11th
Lake Angeles - Was in old 9th
Oakland Twp - Was in old 9th
Orchard Lake - Was in old 11th
part of Orion Twp Was in old 9th
Pontiac - Was in old 9th
Rochester - Was in old 9th
Rochester Hills - Was in old 9th
Royal Oak - Was in old 12th
Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin) - Was in old 11th
Sylvan Lake - Was in old 11th
Troy - Was in old 12th
part of Waterford Twp - Was in old 9th
West Bloomfield - Was in old 11th


Former 11th
Commerce Twp - Now in current 11th
Highland Twp - Now in current 11th
Lathrup Village- Now in current12th
Lyon Twp - Now in current 11th
Milford Twp - Now in current 11th
City of Northville (Oakland) - Now in current 11th
City of Novi - Now in current 11th
Novi Twp - Now in current 11th
South Lyon - Now in current 11th
City of Southfield (most) - Now in current 12th
Walled Lake - Now in current 11th
White Lake - Now in current 11th
Wixom - Now in current 11th
Livonia - Now in current 11th
Redford Twp - Now in current 11th

Most of that wasn't bad. What was bad was Royal Oak. It really would not have mattered in the end since the last race was a 33,000 vote spread Royal Oak was 6000 of that, Berkley 2800), and Independence Twp, Orion, and Oxford couldn't makeup the rest. What it might have done however is scare off Peters, and give Knollenberg a better cushion in 2006. Knollenberg would possibly survived Nancy Skinner again.

Knollenberg survived easily until 2006, consistently winning with about 58% of the vote. 2006 was a nailbiter, and that got Gary Peters, one of the strongest farm club members of the dems, to run. Obama cleaned up in this mostly wealthy (Pontiac the big exception) district, and Peters rode the wave.

The Republicans have a few candidates looking to take the seat back. Their best shot is Andrew Rocky Raczkowski. As a former state rep, Rocky won the tough Farmington Hills based state house district three times, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi, a local legend there who replaced him. Rocky works for us. He's recently back home after stints in Afghanastan and Somalia. Rocky can adapt to either the business crowd or the movement conservatives and I think is one of the few candidates who, if given some help, give Peters more than a run for his money.


Here's the 08 results. It wasn't close. Ticket splitting areas went straight donkey, solid GOP areas were competitive, and the lean democrat areas upped their margins to the stratosphere. There were a lot of 3rd party defectors in this race, and I think it was the bailout that put the nail in the coffin.

2008 Election	Knollenberg	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,310	5,535	611	9,456	-2225	35.00%	58.53%	-23.53%
City of Berkley	3,264	5,080	711	9,055	-1816	36.05%	56.10%	-20.06%
City of Birmingham	6,172	5,584	462	12,218	588	50.52%	45.70%	4.81%
Bloomfield Hills	1,613	967	88	2,668	646	60.46%	36.24%	24.21%
Bloomfield Twp	14,940	11,235	851	27,026	3705	55.28%	41.57%	13.71%
City of Clawson	2,718	3,529	523	6,770	-811	40.15%	52.13%	-11.98%
Farmington	2,343	2,929	282	5,554	-586	42.19%	52.74%	-10.55%
Farmington Hills	16,909	24,287	1984	43,180	-7378	39.16%	56.25%	-17.09%
Keego Harbor	489	676	126	1,291	-187	37.88%	52.36%	-14.48%
Lake Angeles	201	48	3	252	153	79.76%	19.05%	60.71%
Oakland Twp	5,692	3,344	453	9,489	2348	59.99%	35.24%	24.74%
Orchard Lake	821	562	63	1,446	259	56.78%	38.87%	17.91%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	424	424	110	958	0	44.26%	44.26%	0.00%
Orion 9	573	507	78	1,158	66	49.48%	43.78%	5.70%
Orion 11	347	352	69	768	-5	45.18%	45.83%	-0.65%
Orion 14	404	274	48	726	130	55.65%	37.74%	17.91%
Orion 916avcb	520	538	74	1,132	-18	45.94%	47.53%	-1.59%
Pontiac	2,585	18,908	1018	22,511	-16323	11.48%	83.99%	-72.51%
Rochester	3,272	3,031	372	6,675	241	49.02%	45.41%	3.61%
Rochester Hills	18,728	17,320	1979	38,027	1408	49.25%	45.55%	3.70%
City of Royal Oak	11,311	17,518	2359	31,188	-6207	36.27%	56.17%	-19.90%
Southfield Twp	4,743	4,313	321	9,377	430	50.58%	46.00%	4.59%
Sylvan Lake	510	504	70	1,084	6	47.05%	46.49%	0.55%
Troy	20,643	19,407	1961	42,011	1236	49.14%	46.20%	2.94%
Waterford Twp	13,279	16,277	2525	32,081	-2998	41.39%	50.74%	-9.35%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,224	20,362	1492	36,078	-6138	39.43%	56.44%	-17.01%
Total	150,035	183,511	18,633	352,179	-33476	42.60%	52.11%	-9.51%

2006 was a nailbiter and showed the danger signs that started in the 2004 presidential race. Knollenberg here still had the ticket splitters in democrat strongholds like West Bloomfield that saved him.

2006 Election	Knollenberg	Skinner	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,965	3,386	192	6,543	-421	45.32%	51.75%	-6.43%
City of Berkley	3,082	3,729	193	7,004	-647	44.00%	53.24%	-9.24%
City of Birmingham	5,565	4,186	184	9,935	1379	56.01%	42.13%	13.88%
Bloomfield Hills	1,503	654	29	2,186	849	68.76%	29.92%	38.84%
Bloomfield Twp	14,138	8,221	376	22,735	5917	62.19%	36.16%	26.03%
City of Clawson	2,636	2,600	176	5,412	36	48.71%	48.04%	0.67%
Farmington	2,520	1,948	102	4,570	572	55.14%	42.63%	12.52%
Farmington Hills	16,402	16,476	660	33,538	-74	48.91%	49.13%	-0.22%
Keego Harbor	440	452	41	933	-12	47.16%	48.45%	-1.29%
Lake Angeles	189	30	2	221	159	85.52%	13.57%	71.95%
Oakland Twp	5,145	2,256	158	7,559	2889	68.06%	29.85%	38.22%
Orchard Lake	755	403	20	1,178	352	64.09%	34.21%	29.88%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	446	318	30	794	128	56.17%	40.05%	16.12%
Orion 9	571	331	20	922	240	61.93%	35.90%	26.03%
Orion 11	359	255	27	641	104	56.01%	39.78%	16.22%
Orion 14	378	220	18	616	158	61.36%	35.71%	25.65%
Orion 916avcb	408	294	13	715	114	57.06%	41.12%	15.94%
Pontiac	2,760	12,640	316	15,716	-9880	17.56%	80.43%	-62.87%
Rochester	3,087	1,917	98	5,102	1170	60.51%	37.57%	22.93%
Rochester Hills	17,560	11,642	662	29,864	5918	58.80%	38.98%	19.82%
City of Royal Oak	10,903	12,807	729	24,439	-1904	44.61%	52.40%	-7.79%
Southfield Twp	4,606	3,338	125	8,069	1268	57.08%	41.37%	15.71%
Sylvan Lake	501	432	26	959	69	52.24%	45.05%	7.19%
Troy	19,017	13,323	705	33,045	5694	57.55%	40.32%	17.23%
Waterford Twp	13,128	11,116	733	24,977	2012	52.56%	44.50%	8.06%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,324	14,646	525	28,495	-1322	46.76%	51.40%	-4.64%
Total	142,388	127,620	6,160	276,168	14768	51.56%	46.21%	5.35%

2004 and 2002 were easy wins for Knollenberg. I'm not going to post them here because Peters is now the rep. Instead I'll post the 2002 results in the district between Mike Cox and Gary Peters. Cox won statewide by 5500 votes. Cox won Oakland County overall, but it was close and due more to South Lyon and that area than the district. Shockingly to me, Cox won Farmington Hills and almost stole Royal Oak. Cox actually did better than these numbers, because I'm not sure which Waterford Absentees were from the 9th. The absentee voters went for Peters, and all of them were included here.

2002 Election	Cox	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,488	2,699	165	5,352	-211	46.49%	50.43%	-3.94%
City of Berkley	3,007	3,334	193	6,534	-327	46.02%	51.03%	-5.00%
City of Birmingham	5,059	3,595	188	8,842	1464	57.22%	40.66%	16.56%
Bloomfield Hills	1,324	629	30	1,983	695	66.77%	31.72%	35.05%
Bloomfield Twp	12,716	8,039	356	21,111	4677	60.23%	38.08%	22.15%
City of Clawson	2,498	2,205	177	4,880	293	51.19%	45.18%	6.00%
Farmington	2,265	1,781	97	4,143	484	54.67%	42.99%	11.68%
Farmington Hills	14,811	14,447	697	29,955	364	49.44%	48.23%	1.22%
Keego Harbor	321	350	37	708	-29	45.34%	49.44%	-4.10%
Lake Angeles	155	29	4	188	126	82.45%	15.43%	67.02%
Oakland Twp	3,885	1,677	125	5,687	2208	68.31%	29.49%	38.83%
Orchard Lake	688	352	20	1,060	336	64.91%	33.21%	31.70%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	336	223	16	575	113	58.43%	38.78%	19.65%
Orion 9	540	240	17	797	300	67.75%	30.11%	37.64%
Orion 11	286	203	27	516	83	55.43%	39.34%	16.09%
Orion 14	334	175	12	521	159	64.11%	33.59%	30.52%
Orion 916avcb	264	217	13	494	47	53.44%	43.93%	9.51%
Pontiac	2,323	10,604	295	13,222	-8281	17.57%	80.20%	-62.63%
Rochester	2,451	1,640	87	4,178	811	58.66%	39.25%	19.41%
Rochester Hills	15,688	9,998	521	26,207	5690	59.86%	38.15%	21.71%
City of Royal Oak	11,261	11,532	767	23,560	-271	47.80%	48.95%	-1.15%
Southfield Twp	4,233	3,111	116	7,460	1122	56.74%	41.70%	15.04%
Sylvan Lake	458	372	21	851	86	53.82%	43.71%	10.11%
Troy	17,044	10,848	541	28,433	6196	59.94%	38.15%	21.79%
Waterford Twp	12,367	10,108	610	23,085	2259	53.57%	43.79%	9.79%
Waterford 1	-469	-277	-28	(774)	-192	60.59%	35.79%	24.81%
Waterford 3	-302	-214	-17	(533)	-88	56.66%	40.15%	16.51%
Waterford 5	-402	-289	-21	(712)	-113	56.46%	40.59%	15.87%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	11,106	13,504	775	25,385	-2398	43.75%	53.20%	-9.45%
Total	126,735	111,132	5,841	243,708	15603	52.00%	45.60%	6.40%

In the presidential race, this district has gotten more and more blue. It's a combination of smaller margins in formerly republican strongholds, more votes in Pontiac, and emerging areas that were competitive, no longer competitive at all. Kerry actually did much better than Gore in this district. The other reason is that even though Bush did better in Oakland County in 2004 overall than 2000 (which most don't know), it wasn't in this district (Rogers and McCotter's district had the improvements) which is what most people think of with Oakland County.The numbers are slightly off due to absentees.

2000 Election	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,408	3,913	227	7,548	-505	45.15%	51.84%	-6.69%
City of Berkley	3,860	4,400	312	8,572	-540	45.03%	51.33%	-6.30%
City of Birmingham	6,729	4,925	307	11,961	1804	56.26%	41.18%	15.08%
Bloomfield Hills	1,804	777	44	2,625	1027	68.72%	29.60%	39.12%
Bloomfield Twp	16,304	9,530	518	26,352	6774	61.87%	36.16%	25.71%
City of Clawson	3,116	3,332	249	6,697	-216	46.53%	49.75%	-3.23%
Farmington	2,796	2,442	179	5,417	354	51.62%	45.08%	6.53%
Farmington Hills	19,164	20,337	910	40,411	-1173	47.42%	50.33%	-2.90%
Keego Harbor	522	588	36	1,146	-66	45.55%	51.31%	-5.76%
Lake Angeles	203	23	2	228	180	89.04%	10.09%	78.95%
Oakland Twp	4,823	2,219	181	7,223	2604	66.77%	30.72%	36.05%
Orchard Lake	870	471	38	1,379	399	63.09%	34.16%	28.93%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	363	363	26	752	0	48.27%	48.27%	0.00%
Orion 9	708	368	23	1,099	340	64.42%	33.48%	30.94%
Orion 11	437	402	23	862	35	50.70%	46.64%	4.06%
Orion 14	373	230	9	612	143	60.95%	37.58%	23.37%
Orion 916avcb				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Pontiac	3,360	15,182	338	18,880	-11822	17.80%	80.41%	-62.62%
Rochester	3,270	2,153	179	5,602	1117	58.37%	38.43%	19.94%
Rochester Hills	21,011	13,474	789	35,274	7537	59.57%	38.20%	21.37%
City of Royal Oak	14,689	16,435	1185	32,309	-1746	45.46%	50.87%	-5.40%
Southfield Twp	5,133	3,721	268	9,122	1412	56.27%	40.79%	15.48%
Sylvan Lake	583	485	37	1,105	98	52.76%	43.89%	8.87%
Troy	22,775	15,463	886	39,124	7312	58.21%	39.52%	18.69%
Waterford Twp	16,629	15,280	845	32,754	1349	50.77%	46.65%	4.12%
Waterford 1	-548	-500	-34	(1,082)	-48	50.65%	46.21%	4.44%
Waterford 3	-344	-382	-20	(746)	38	46.11%	51.21%	-5.09%
Waterford 5	-491	-414	-24	(929)	-77	52.85%	44.56%	8.29%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,222	19,016	627	33,865	-4794	42.00%	56.15%	-14.16%
Total	165,769	154,233	8,160	328,162	11536	50.51%	47.00%	3.52%

2004 showed a dem uptick.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	4,089	4,724	97	8,910	-635	45.89%	53.02%	-7.13%
City of Berkley	4,315	5,027	108	9,450	-712	45.66%	53.20%	-7.53%
City of Birmingham	6,772	5,508	101	12,381	1264	54.70%	44.49%	10.21%
Bloomfield Hills	1,802	951	24	2,777	851	64.89%	34.25%	30.64%
Bloomfield Twp	16,314	11,197	208	27,719	5117	58.85%	40.39%	18.46%
City of Clawson	3,584	3,471	66	7,121	113	50.33%	48.74%	1.59%
Farmington	2,873	2,680	74	5,627	193	51.06%	47.63%	3.43%
Farmington Hills	20,019	22,931	381	43,331	-2912	46.20%	52.92%	-6.72%
Keego Harbor	554	590	13	1,157	-36	47.88%	50.99%	-3.11%
Lake Angeles	217	43	3	263	174	82.51%	16.35%	66.16%
Oakland Twp	6,212	2,898	91	9,201	3314	67.51%	31.50%	36.02%
Orchard Lake	938	580	7	1,525	358	61.51%	38.03%	23.48%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	584	420	7	1,011	164	57.76%	41.54%	16.22%
Orion 9	785	438	13	1,236	347	63.51%	35.44%	28.07%
Orion 11	456	348	13	817	108	55.81%	42.59%	13.22%
Orion 14	479	252	6	737	227	64.99%	34.19%	30.80%
Orion 916avcb	553	384	16	953	169	58.03%	40.29%	17.73%
Pontiac	4,499	17,759	163	22,421	-13260	20.07%	79.21%	-59.14%
Rochester	3,979	2,647	60	6,686	1332	59.51%	39.59%	19.92%
Rochester Hills	22,733	15,571	354	38,658	7162	58.81%	40.28%	18.53%
City of Royal Oak	15,529	19,143	410	35,082	-3614	44.26%	54.57%	-10.30%
Southfield Twp	5,245	4,346	81	9,672	899	54.23%	44.93%	9.29%
Sylvan Lake	647	529	16	1,192	118	54.28%	44.38%	9.90%
Troy	24,171	18,175	418	42,764	5996	56.52%	42.50%	14.02%
Waterford Twp	19,965	16,507	345	36,817	3458	54.23%	44.84%	9.39%
Waterford 1	-719	-423	-13	(1,155)	-296	62.25%	36.62%	25.63%
Waterford 3	-401	-349	-8	(758)	-52	52.90%	46.04%	6.86%
Waterford 5	-639	-484	-10	(1,133)	-155	56.40%	42.72%	13.68%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	16,150	20,317	247	36,714	-4167	43.99%	55.34%	-11.35%
Total	181,705	176,180	3,291	361,176	5525	50.31%	48.78%	1.53%

2008 showed a blowout. When you quit the state, and tell us that the auto industry isn't coming back, along with Bush not being all that great of friend to the auto industry, and people having a throw the bums out mentality in 06 (The Republican Congress should have listened to Pence in 06. I told you so.) and 08, it doesn't look good. Here's why Knollenberg had no chance in 08.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,577	5,823	152	9,552	-2246	37.45%	60.96%	-23.51%
City of Berkley	3,560	5,715	143	9,418	-2155	37.80%	60.68%	-22.88%
City of Birmingham	5,900	6,492	154	12,546	-592	47.03%	51.75%	-4.72%
Bloomfield Hills	1,580	1,112	19	2,711	468	58.28%	41.02%	17.26%
Bloomfield Twp	14,368	12,886	257	27,511	1482	52.23%	46.84%	5.39%
City of Clawson	2,998	3,912	142	7,052	-914	42.51%	55.47%	-12.96%
Farmington	2,416	3,183	102	5,701	-767	42.38%	55.83%	-13.45%
Farmington Hills	17,028	26,862	541	44,431	-9834	38.32%	60.46%	-22.13%
Keego Harbor	525	804	20	1,349	-279	38.92%	59.60%	-20.68%
Lake Angeles	201	59	1	261	142	77.01%	22.61%	54.41%
Oakland Twp	5,965	3,679	139	9,783	2286	60.97%	37.61%	23.37%
Orchard Lake	821	648	11	1,480	173	55.47%	43.78%	11.69%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	494	477	22	993	17	49.75%	48.04%	1.71%
Orion 9	608	581	20	1,209	27	50.29%	48.06%	2.23%
Orion 11	400	399	14	813	1	49.20%	49.08%	0.12%
Orion 14	423	319	13	755	104	56.03%	42.25%	13.77%
Orion 916avcb	598	538	18	1,154	60	51.82%	46.62%	5.20%
Pontiac	2,799	19,980	205	22,984	-17181	12.18%	86.93%	-74.75%
Rochester	3,515	3,319	88	6,922	196	50.78%	47.95%	2.83%
Rochester Hills	19,919	18,834	570	39,323	1085	50.65%	47.90%	2.76%
City of Royal Oak	13,094	21,650	684	35,428	-8556	36.96%	61.11%	-24.15%
Southfield Twp	4,570	4,925	93	9,588	-355	47.66%	51.37%	-3.70%
Sylvan Lake	551	558	17	1,126	-7	48.93%	49.56%	-0.62%
Troy	21,230	21,517	629	43,376	-287	48.94%	49.61%	-0.66%
Waterford Twp	16,968	19,134	720	36,822	-2166	46.08%	51.96%	-5.88%
Waterford 1	-537	-475	-14	(1,026)	-62	52.34%	46.30%	6.04%
Waterford 3	-339	-380	-23	(742)	41	45.69%	51.21%	-5.53%
Waterford 5	-429	-527	-24	(980)	98	43.78%	53.78%	-10.00%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,967	22,730	344	37,041	-8763	37.71%	61.36%	-23.66%
Total	156,770	204,754	5,057	366,581	-47984	42.77%	55.86%	-13.09%

The farm club has some tough seats.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.

St Senate 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Seiferlein/Cherry	41445	65771		107,216	-24326	38.66%	61.34%	-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry	37852	47848		85,700	-9996	44.17%	55.83%	-11.66%

St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....

St. Senate 15th	GOP	Dem
06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski	66,524	45,782	3101	115,407	20742	57.64%	39.67%	17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson	57,583	35,305	2340	95,228	22278	60.47%	37.07%	23.39%

St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.

St Senate 14th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Bellinger/Jacobs	26571	78346	3114	108,031	-51775	24.60%	72.52%	-47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs	28249	65538	2030	95,817	-37289	29.48%	68.40%	-38.92%

St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.

St Senate 13th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin	57,204	56,484	3129	116,817	720	48.97%	48.35%	0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt	63,793	37,222		101,015	26571	63.15%	36.85%	26.30%

St Senate 12 - Covers Addison Twp, City of Auburn Hills, City of Clarkston, Independence Twp, City of Keego Harbor, City of Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, City of Pontiac, City of Rochester, City of Rochester Hills, City of Sylvan Lake, and less than a precinct of West Bloomfield. This district is split between the 8th and 9th. Mike Bishop is termed out and running for Attorney General. Slightly Republican leaning, but anything with Pontiac and Auburn Hills is dangerous, because a turnout war can do what Obama did in the 8th Congressional. Luckily Rochester Hills doesn't go for Pontiac types of democrats (union/populist). It's an open seat in 2010. 

St Senate 12th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Bishop/Barrera	59,498	43,069	3048	105,615	16429	56.33%	40.78%	15.56%
02 - Bishop/Werth	54,569	32,412		86,981	22157	62.74%	37.26%	25.47%

St Rep 46 - Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County. This is one of the most Republican seats in Oakland County.

St Rep 46th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Marleau/Houston	29,257	19,042		48,299	10215	60.57%	39.43%	21.15%
06 - Marleau/Pearson	23,744	15,197		38,941	8547	60.97%	39.03%	21.95%
04 - Marleau/Myslakowski	30,064	17,593		47,657	12471	63.08%	36.92%	26.17%
02 - Johnson/Reading	21,582	8,866		30,448	12716	70.88%	29.12%	41.76%

St Rep 45th - Covers Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Twp. Solidly Republican, although less so in recent years. All of this district is in the 9th.

St Rep 45th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - McMillin/Young	29,450	21,785		51,235	7665	57.48%	42.52%	14.96%
06 - Garfield/Werth	24,211	16,385		40,596	7826	59.64%	40.36%	19.28%
04 - Garfield/Werth	31,993	17,363	1326	50,682	14630	63.12%	34.26%	28.87%
02 - Garfield/Kanaras	23,518	10,699		34,217	12819	68.73%	31.27%	37.46%

St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.

St Rep 44th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie	33,266	16,683		49,949	16583	66.60%	33.40%	33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie	27,124	13,264		40,388	13860	67.16%	32.84%	34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase	33,596	14,498	1400	49,494	19098	67.88%	29.29%	38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan	22,788	9,748		32,536	13040	70.04%	29.96%	40.08%

St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.

St Rep 43rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson	20,219	19,373	1460	41,052	846	49.25%	47.19%	2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell	19,292	13,406		32,698	5886	59.00%	41.00%	18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson	23,665	18,193		41,858	5472	56.54%	43.46%	13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino	14,788	13,157		27,945	1631	52.92%	47.08%	5.84%

St Rep 41st - Covers Clawson and Troy - Leans Republican, but like the Rochester seat, not as much as it was. In fact, Peters split this district nearly 50/50. Marty Knollenberg, Joe's son, is the current state rep here. He's won two terms and has a 3rd in 2010. This could possibly be competitive in 2012 depending on what happens with redistricting.

St Rep 41st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - M.Knollenberg/Treharne	27,211	19,649		46,860	7562	58.07%	41.93%	16.14%
06 - M.Knollenberg/Gregory	21,673	15,479		37,152	6194	58.34%	41.66%	16.67%
04 - Gosselin/Blundo	26,767	19,674		46,441	7093	57.64%	42.36%	15.27%
02 - Pappageorge/Fischer	22,631	9,514	667	32,812	13117	68.97%	29.00%	39.98%

St Rep 40th - Covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, Southfield Twp, and Sylvan Lake. This district leans GOP, but not overwhelmingly so. Chuck Moss is a two term incumbent with one term left. This could have an outside chance of being competitive in 2012 depending on redistricting.

St Rep 40th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moss/Candler	31,312	19,751	1278	52,341	11561	59.82%	37.74%	22.09%
06 - Moss/Jafly	28,095	14,883		42,978	13212	65.37%	34.63%	30.74%
04 - Taub	39,231			39,231	39231	100.00%	0.00%	100.00%
02 - Taub/Weisberg	25,625	15,435		41,060	10190	62.41%	37.59%	24.82%

St Rep 39th - Covers Commerce Twp and part of West Bloomfield. This seat leaned democrat at the top of the ticket for a long time, but went GOP several times down ticket. Commerce Twp saved us in 2004 and 2006, but it caught up with us in 2008. Lisa Brown, who almost won in 2006, won the open seat in 2008. Hopefully, the democrat 2010 backlash strikes here. We'll see.

St Rep 39th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Peterman/Brown	22,725	25,437	1133	49,295	-2712	46.10%	51.60%	-5.50%
06 - Law/Brown	19,563	19,387		38,950	176	50.23%	49.77%	0.45%
04 - Law/Schwartz	24,998	21,618	1092	47,708	3380	52.40%	45.31%	7.08%
02 - Shulman/Brickman	19,691	12,722		32,413	6969	60.75%	39.25%	21.50%

St Rep 37th - Covers Farmington and Farmington Hills - This district leans democrat, but was won by Rocky Raczkowski three times in 96, 98, and 2000. Vicki Barnett won the open seat for the democrats in 2008 in an easier than supposed to have been race. Paul Welday didn't get the help that he needed and was largely left on his own. 

St Rep 37th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Welday/Barnett	18,954	28,575		47,529	-9621	39.88%	60.12%	-20.24%
06 - Malaney/Vagnozzi	14,375	23,177		37,552	-8802	38.28%	61.72%	-23.44%
04 - Largent/Vagnozzi	20,468	26,730		47,198	-6262	43.37%	56.63%	-13.27%
02 - Knol/Vagnozzi	16,290	17,976		34,266	-1686	47.54%	52.46%	-4.92%

St Rep 29th - Covers Pontiac and Auburn Hills - Solidly Democrat seat.  Tim Melton is the two term incumbent.

St Rep 29th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Sampeer/Melton	5,074	25,700		30,774	-20626	16.49%	83.51%	-67.02%
06 - March/Melton	4,131	16,591	1110	21,832	-12460	18.92%	75.99%	-57.07%
04 - Moffett/Phillips	7,607	22,272	1400	31,279	-14665	24.32%	71.20%	-46.88%
02 - March/Phillips	4,292	13,675		17,967	-9383	23.89%	76.11%	-52.22%

St Rep 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge. Probably the most liberal district in the state outside of Ann Arbor. Only the major minority areas are more democrat.

St Rep 27th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton	10,099	31,758	2616	44,473	-21659	22.71%	71.41%	-48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner	7,303	27,285		34,588	-19982	21.11%	78.89%	-57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner	10,755	32,447	1188	44,390	-21692	24.23%	73.10%	-48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner	7,927	21,037	875	29,839	-13110	26.57%	70.50%	-43.94%

St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan	15,471	28,003	1885	45,359	-12532	34.11%	61.74%	-27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan	12,357	22,079	1057	35,493	-9722	34.82%	62.21%	-27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan	20,954	22,780	2682	46,416	-1826	45.14%	49.08%	-3.93%
02 - West/Woodward	11,697	19,058	722	31,477	-7361	37.16%	60.55%	-23.39%

Now the 9th district is unpredictable for 2010. One issue trumps all. The economy. The auto industry took an ass kicking in 2008, and 2009. The Bloomfields are known for auto executives. Auburn Hills was Chrysler's HQ, not just the home of the Pistons. Pontiac is a former GM town. Lake Orion (largely 8th district) has a GM plant, for now. With the 250,000 jobs estimated that are eliminated from GM due to decisions made by Obama's appointees, how will that impact this district? Cap and trade is not popular here, even though the environment is big issue in these parts. The social issues are downplayed right now, and that favors republicans in this district. This is Romney's old home. This is his territory. This is the closest district to the pundits stereotype of Oakland County (which I used to buy into until I took a closer look at the numbers). It takes a balancing act to win here between business, the social liberal independents, and the populists which while aren't as numerous here as neighboring Macomb County, still are a factor in very important Waterford. The base is still quite important as well. The populism in this district has certainly increased since the bank bailouts and auto industry crisis. How will Peters and Rocky handle that? That's the question, and probably what will determine what happens in 2010. Rocky's a fighter, like another more famous Rocky. That's one of the big reasons why I like his odds in 2010. He's won tough districts in the past, and the 9th overall is easier than his old 37th district.