MI-01 - The Amazing near tie between Allen and Benishek

This is one of the most interesting races in one of the most interesting congressional districts in the country. Troll vs Yooper. A "Troll" for those who don't know live below the Mackinac Bridge. A Yooper is someone from the Upper Penninsula. In this primary, Two trolls faced four yoopers. The candidates are:

Dan Benishek - A doctor from Crystal Falls in Iron County. (Yooper)
Jason Allen - A state senator who moved from Traverse City to Emmet County (Troll)
Tom Stillings - A township trustee and activist from Eastport/Torch Lake in Antrim County (Troll)
Linda Goldthorpe - A frequent candidate and attorney from McMillan in Luce County. (Yooper)
Don Hooper - A frequent candidate from Iron River (Yooper) in Iron County.
Patrick Donlon - A candidate from St Ignace in Mackinac County (Yooper)

Yoopers took 54% of the vote. Trolls took 45% of the vote.
Benishek - 38.12% - leading by one vote before possible recount.
Allen - 38.12% - trailing by one vote before possible recount.
Stillings - 7.63%
Goldthorpe - 7.03%
Hooper - 5.59%
Donlon - 3.57%

Geography was a major factor in this race. Allen did very well in his state senate district. He did poorly in the UP - except for three counties in his state senate district. Alger. Mackinac. Chippewa. They voted for the troll. This continues Allen's state senate strength in his district. Benishek did very well in the Central/Western UP and it carried him to a one vote lead. Allen won the other lower peninsula votes, but by a smaller margin. I wish I had the inland/coastal breakdowns in places like Antrim and Charlevoix counties, but I don't have the time to go into that detail yet. I divided the area up into three areas with almost equal populations.

Here's Allen's District:

Allen's District	Allen	Benishek	Donlon	Goldthorpe	Hooper	Stillings	Total	Allen	Benishek
ANTRIM	2,549	910	134	232	176	793	4,794	53.17%	18.98%
CHARLEVOIX	2,282	907	153	198	150	534	4,224	54.02%	21.47%
CHEBOYGAN	2,228	1,293	114	219	120	228	4,202	53.02%	30.77%
CHIPPEWA	1,788	921	109	223	131	176	3,348	53.41%	27.51%
EMMET	2,634	1,186	121	184	111	319	4,555	57.83%	26.04%
MACKINAC	763	591	55	206	49	92	1,756	43.45%	33.66%
PRESQUE ISLE	845	828	41	77	36	61	1,888	44.76%	43.86%
	13,089	6,636	727	1,339	773	2,203	24,767	52.85%	26.79%

It's a whooping there. 53% to 27% Interesting enough, much of that is also Gary McDowell's district and he's the opponent. The question is this. Who did Tom Stillings and Linda Goldthorpe take votes from? Stillings took 16% in his home county of Antrim, , 13% in Charlevoix next door, and 7% in Emmet just north of there. He also took 5%+ in Cheboygan and Chippewa. Goldthorpe took 12% in Mackinac County, next to her home. She took 5%+ in Cheboygan and Chippewa counties. Nobody else broke 5% in this area. Presque Isle has always been Allen's most hostile county in the district.

The competitive northern lower outside of Allen's district was also interesting. Nobody ran away with this:

	Allen	Benishek	Donlon	Goldthorpe	Hooper	Stillings	Total	Allen	Benishek
ALCONA	559	545	107	165	86	112	1,574	35.51%	34.63%
ALPENA	1,293	1,424	104	171	91	125	3,208	40.31%	44.39%
ARENAC	498	450	133	149	117	122	1,469	33.90%	30.63%
BAY	904	776	141	328	253	211	2,613	34.60%	29.70%
CRAWFORD	834	376	69	221	89	195	1,784	46.75%	21.08%
GLADWIN	941	624	128	313	208	160	2,374	39.64%	26.28%
IOSCO	721	988	163	280	169	265	2,586	27.88%	38.21%
MONTMORENCY	803	365	78	135	70	113	1,564	51.34%	23.34%
OGEMAW	679	644	95	253	102	167	1,940	35.00%	33.20%
OTSEGO	1,769	1,022	175	223	124	480	3,793	46.64%	26.94%
PRESQUE ISLE	845	828	41	77	36	61	1,888	44.76%	43.86%
	9846	8042	1234	2315	1345	2011	24,793	39.71%	32.44%

Allen won here too, but not by the 2-1 margin in his district. He ran 13% here behind his district numbers, and Benishek ran 6% ahead of his numbers in Allen's district. About 28% here voted for a different candidate than the top two, compared to 20% in Allen's district and 21% in Benishek's yooper base. Interesting enough, Goldthorpe, a yooper, broke 10%+ in 7 counties here. Benishek won Alpena and Iosco on the sunrise side. Donlon's three best counties are all in this area as well. Stillngs did his best in the Standish area it seems, but his best area was by his home.

The UP outside of Allen's district made its choice very clear.

ALGER	527	469	42	99	54	43	1,234	42.71%	38.01%
BARAGA	159	497	23	50	84	39	852	18.66%	58.33%
DELTA	568	1,892	74	165	290	210	3,199	17.76%	59.14%
DICKINSON	533	2,322	34	76	146	133	3,244	16.43%	71.58%
GOGEBIC	146	523	32	57	88	52	898	16.26%	58.24%
HOUGHTON	422	1,883	40	121	304	113	2,883	14.64%	65.31%
IRON	165	897	27	29	150	43	1,311	12.59%	68.42%
KEWEENAW	26	223	9	32	39	13	342	7.60%	65.20%
LUCE	219	337	17	157	28	17	775	28.26%	43.48%
MARQUETTE	1,101	2,351	75	273	320	211	4,331	25.42%	54.28%
MENOMINEE	248	708	41	64	123	61	1,245	19.92%	56.87%
ONTONAGON	133	321	27	42	126	94	743	17.90%	43.20%
SCHOOLCRAFT	278	541	38	156	77	49	1,139	24.41%	47.50%
	4525	12964	479	1321	1829	1078	22,196	20.39%	58.41%

It was almost a 3-1 margin. Benishek took an impressive 58% to Allen's 20%. Goldthorpe did well in Luce (home) and Schoolcraft counties. Hooper did well out west near his home. Stillings did well in Ontonagon for some reason. Allen did win Alger County near Marquette, although Benishek took Marquette itself and all the other counties there. Dickinson was his best county, getting 70%+ there. That's Benishek's neighboring county. Iron, Houghton, and Keewenaw are his other best areas.

All this adds up to a near tie. 1 vote. 31 counties. I don't the final result because of the recount. The two sets of questions for the general are this:

1. Can Dan Benishek carry his area in the general against McDowell? Can get get the votes out of Allen's district, normal base areas. Can he match or beat McDowell on the sunrise side?

2. Can Allen survive his UP loss to McDowell in the general with his district? Can Allen get the big numbers out of Emmet needed to win? Can he win the sunrise side?

I think Benishek is the stronger candidate in the general, but Allen's Mackinac, Luce, and Chippewa County wins are significant. I think he has a shot in the general, and that's more than I thought before.

Good luck to the winner.

MI-01 - Dan Benishek for Congress

Right now I'm at the closest point I've ever come to throwing a straight ticket. I've never done that, and I won't do so. I check every name that's running before voting. However, after the well deserved ass kickings given in 2006 and 2008 to the GOP for their drift from fiscal conservatism and acting like democrats, the voters decided on the real thing instead of dem-lite.

The results are a disaster, including the health care takeover by the democrats and their buddies in the insurance companies like Blue Cross (FYI - The likely opponent for Mike Rogers, Kande what's his name, is a Blue Cross Guy, and  Dem State Senator Gretchen Whitmer is a Blue Cross heir). A month ago,  I posted a long-term blueprint for getting rid of Obamacare. It starts with getting people like Pelosi out of the speaker's chair. That means we need to win the majority. It starts with getting the right candidate to be the nomination here in the 1st district.

I hate using the term "electable candidate".The reason is that usually whoever the pundits say is the electable candidate isn't. See McCain in 2008. See John Kerry in 2004. (Dean might have won)  See Gore in 2000 (Bradley would have won) who lost multiple times with the re-re-re-re-re counts. The pundits and I have disagreements about who is the electable candidate. I think all of the candidates in the 1st are electable depending on their matchups. That's what it comes down to, just like football, mixed martial arts, and everything else.

The first district is open. It's a difficult swing seat for all parties involved and is one of the most unique districts in the country. It takes the right candidate to win here. I was hoping former State Rep Tom Casperson would run. He said he was sticking with the state senate candidacy instead. With Casperson out, I'm making my endorsement. Dan Benishek. He has the best chance to win with the possible matchups in this district.

Outside of my strong bias against carpetbagging to another district, I don't have anything against Jason Allen. In Allen's defense, about half of his senate seat was in the 1st. Many on the right-roots have their issues, but I'm concentrating on another issue here. Geography. The 1st district is about small town politics. There are no cities over 20,000 people. Allen's county of Grand Traverse is larger than any county in the district outside of  Bay County, and much of Bay County is in the 5th District. Traverse City is larger than 14 counties in this district. He's moved to Alanson, in Emmet County, which is in his state senate district.

Three of the candidates on the republican side are the longest of the longshots.  Don Hooper runs in every election and Stupak did what he does to everybody that runs against him. His campaign didn't take off this year in an open district. Linda Goldthorpe ran in 08, losing to Casperson in the primary. Tom Stillings is another longshot. It will be highly unlikely that either of those candidates win the primary. The two candidates which have a good shot at winning the primary are Dan Benishek and Jason Allen.


Quick overview of the areas:

Marquette area - Solid democrat, yellow dog.

Western UP - Conservative Democrat leaning in most of the area outside of Houghton. Locally, still very democrat. This is Joe Mack country still and is also the traditional mining areas. The GOP almost took this state rep seat in 2000 however, so it can be competitive.

Eastern UP - Slightly Republican leaning at the top of the ticket, but competitive locally.

Sunrise Lower Peninsula - Populist, votes democrat locally, swings on the national level. The state rep/senate seats here can be competitive when open. Alpena and the Standish/Pinconning areas are the major base for the democrats. They prefer social conservative democrats.

Central northern lower - Solidly conservative and leans Republican, although still populist in parts. The energy industry is big, especially in Otsego County. Grayling has the large national guard base. Otsego County is a base county.

Northwest lower - Leans Republican with a couple of rich liberal pockets, although not many compared to Traverse City itself. The townships near the towns in Antrim and Emmet Counties are the most Republican part of the district.

Analyzing the matchups:

Jason Allen v the field:
Geography is Allen's biggest weakness. It was a weakness in the 1990's under the older district borders when Stupak was running up 58% wins against trolls and flatlanders (those who live below the bridge.)  Stupak took the UP big and took the northeastern lower Penninsula as well, and even occasionally picking off Grand Traverse, Antrim, Otsego, and Emmet counties. It's a long tradition that this is the "UP's seat." Traverse City is also considered a "big city" in much of the UP. It's known as a high income area, and that won't play well in much of the UP or on the more labor influenced sunrise side of troll land.

Allen ran in 2002 and 2006 for state senate, winning both times. In an open seat race in 2002, he faced Michael Estes, now Mayor of Traverse City. He won every county except the swing county of Presque Isle (on the sunrise side), and he narrowly won Mackinac and Chippewa counties in the UP. In 2006, he faced Sharon Unger of Antrim County, winning all areas easily. I consider his UP wins against Estes good wins. There's also a difference between facing Estes and McDowell on his home turf.

Allen should clobber Saltonstall. Saltonstall won't beat Allen in his backyard, nor would she get the yooper vote. She may take Alpena, Marquette, Gogebic, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Iron counties based on strict partisanship, but this is a pro-life district.

Joel Sheltrown would be tougher. Sheltrown is a troll, but his views will resonate with a lot of yoopers as well. Sheltrown long has had very good relationships with 2nd amendment and outdoor groups. He's also pro-life (although pro-lifers are very skeptical of all democrats right now with Stupak's decision). Sheltrown is from one of the two most democrat areas in Northern Lower Michigan. His district covers Ogemaw, Roscommon, Iosco, and Missaukee counties. Sheltrown won Missaukee County, which is the 2nd most republican county in the state. It's about 4-5% more Republican than Livingston County by percentage. It's not in the 1st district and neither is Roscommon County. With media overlap, Sheltrown probably has a lot of support in Arenac County (Standish, prisons), the critical Grayling area, and maybe even up to Alpena. With Allen likely not being able to pick up the "Tim Moore" votes, he'd have to go to the UP and pick off the votes there in the critical swing areas. Houghton, Menominee, L'anse, Escanaba.  Possible, but I think someone better can do that.

Gary McDowell is the matchup that scares me with Allen. After the GOP held the competitive state rep position with Scott Shackleton for six years, they ran state senator Walt North who was the deciding vote on mourning dove hunting. North voted it down, the NRA endorsed McDowell (right decision), gave North an F (wrong decision, deserved a C, not an F - he's not in Schwarz category), and McDowell won, and much easier than expected. He won easily twice more, and took a normally GOP base county in Emmet County. Would he take Emmet County against Allen? Probably not, but it would be closer than acceptable. McDowell's a yooper, and will take the key Mackinac and Chippewa county areas, and likely the rest of the UP. Allen would have to run up big numbers in the sunrise areas to counter McDowell. Possible, but difficult.

Dan Benishek v the field.

Benishek should also clobber Saltonstall for the same reasons Allen would.

McDowell would still be a difficult matchup, but this would be yooper v yooper. He's going to have to make up those votes because of the Mackinac/Chippewa home base of McDowell. Houghton, Escanaba, Menominee, and Iron Mountain are key here. Benishek is closer to those areas than McDowell. He should be able to counter McDowell in Anrim, Otsego, and the leaning but not solid Grayling area with good base numbers.That will put the deciding areas over on the sunrise side.

Sheltrown would test the conventional wisdom of the "Yooper" seat. Benishek should take the UP, but not by a big margin with the partisans in the Marquette and Ironwood areas. Sheltrown will take the sunrise vote big ,and cut into the inland margins for the GOP. Benishek would need to win Emmet, Antrim, and Otsego big, and try to pick off Grayling, Mio, and that area.

It's a long election season, and this race is very important. Geography is probably the biggest issue in this populist district. I think it takes a strong yooper to give the GOP the best chances to win. That person is Dan Benishek.

Benishek isn't the establishment. In an area that doesn't like establishment politicians, that's a good thing. As a surgeon, he knows what this health care takeover does to regular Americans. He's a yooper in the "yooper district." He's fighting the establishment. It will probably take a grassroots darkhorse to win this race against a McDowell or Sheltrown democrat. I think Benishek has the best chance to win because of those reasons.

Which Republican will rise to the occasion and challenge Bart Stupak?

Stupak voted with Obama in the end like a good democrat. That's about what I expected out of him. I'm getting a lot of hits from non-Michiganders who are looking up Stupak and want to see a good opponent run against him.

This was my profile of the 1st district

This is the Democrat challenging Stupak in the August primary

Personally, I'd like to see Tom Casperson (running for State Senate) or Scott Shackleton run against him. They are both former state reps who won tough districts in the UP. The 1st district is a very difficult district to win for anybody because it is a large populist regional district where local ties strongly matter. Yoopers prefer yoopers in their voting patterns. Trolls prefer inland trolls to coastal candidates. Natives prefer natives to any "recent" (after high school) transplants. Small town politics dominate this area, in good and bad ways.

It's also a democrat leaning district, but it is a local democrat or conservative democrat leaning district. It's not a John Kerry district. McCain would have won here if he didn't abandon the entire state in a stupid public announcement. This is also 2010 and not 2008. There's a different dynamic here and the Bush fatigue is long past. Bush is gone.

Stupak has dominated this district with over 60% every time. He was held to 58% twice in the only 1990's district which was more Republican. There's a now a chance that Stupak can go down. It won't be easy, but it's possible. Why? He's gone national. That's why. He became a national democrat instead of the Menominee Democrat he is supposed to be.

So who's stepping up to the plate? Three People so far are running.

Don Hooper ran several against Stupak. He's running again.

Linda Goldthorpe ran in the 2008 primary against Casperson. She was on Ron Paul's campaign. She's running again.

Dan Benishek is a Surgeon and running as well. He doesn't have a website up, although he's getting press on blogs like Ed Morrisey's Hot Air. If Benishek wants to take advantage of this, he better get a website up ASAP. UPDATE - Benishek's campaign is working on its website.

All three, and any others that jump in, have an opportunity that was not there in 96, 98, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008. There's a big chink in Stupak's armor that was not there right now. He's gone national.

A chance like this against someone as strong as Stupak usually is does not come around very often. It will take hard work, organization, money, and the right candidate. Who has what it takes? That remains to be seen.