Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Bart Stupak has a primary challenger in Connie Saltonstall (MI-01)

Some good news in MI-01 for republicans. Bart Stupak has a primary race with Connie Saltonstall. With that, the GOP needs to recruit a good candidate for that area, preferably a yooper. Tom Casperson is planning to run for State Senate, but maybe he should give Congress another go with this opening. If not Casperson, perhaps Scott Shackleton.

The pro-abortion left is pumping money into this race. The rich leftists at Huffington Post are going crazy and giving their money to this race. Great. It's win, win for the GOP. Go Connie! For a whole difference reason.

I don't know much about Saltonstall except that she has some election history, and is mad at Stupak for his abortion stance. She was a county commissioner representing the City of Charlevoix. She also ran for the 105th State Rep against incumbent Kevin Elsenheimer. Elsenheimer won overall with 60%. Saltonstall won the City of Charlevoix, Chandler Township, and lost the rest of her home county. She did show strength in Forest Township in Cheboygan County with a tie there, but Elsenheimer won his district easily. It is a Republican leaning district unless one's a blunder machine (like illegally spending county taxpayers money on campaign mailings....) The 105th is possibly the most Republican district that resides in the 1st. Saltonstall did better than most democrats there, but was that due to her campaign, or 08 being a bad year for Republicans.

Apples and Oranges. Why?

1. Different electorate - primary. Right to Life loves Stupak. However, a lot of them lean more republican than they do democrat. Which primary will the pro-life activists vote in? In the August primary, one may vote a Republican ballot or a Democrat ballot. The Republicans and Democrats will both have a gubernatorial primary statewide, and the abortion issue will come up in both parties as Rick Snyder donated tens of thousands to the ballot proposal supporting embryonic research. Andy Dillon has pro-life leanings and Virg Bernero is pro-abortion. Most of the local offices on the yooper side of the bridge lean democrat outside of Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. The troll side is more locally competitive with democrat leaning Alpena, Bay, Ogemaw, and Arenac counties and Republican leaning Otsego, Emmet, and Antrim Counties. The gubernatorial race makes this interesting. Primary voters are more partisan, and will vote for their guys before crossvotes. I've only monkeyed around in one democrat primary (Against Granholm in 02) because usually I have races of my own to vote in

2. Money. Saltonstall has pro-abortion money flying in from the left-roots. She's also from one of the more wealthy areas of the district and can raise more money than most challengers. This will give Stupak some headaches, no matter what the real threat is.

I think this is Stupak's race to lose. He's very popular locally and runs ahead of everybody, especially in the UP. The UP, as well as the sunrise side of the Northern Lower Penninsula, have a lot of social conservative democrats. Pro-life. Pro-gun. Pro-union. The Sheltrown brothers in the SE part of the district. Andy Neumann is pro-gun. The yooper state reps are pro-gun and outside of Prusi in Marquette, I believe they are pro-life. Jim Barcia in Bay City represented part of this area before and he's pro-gun and pro-life.

A large number of the democrats are labor. Corrections officers, retired UAW, Bay City commuters, Alpena, DNR officers, and state workers, along with mining traditions. These aren't your Ann Arbor, California, or even Traverse City democrats. Saltonstall will have to sell to those people, and do so with a Charlevoix address. If I'm running for office in this district, there are four addresses I do not want to be identified with. Charlevoix, Petoskey, Torch Lake, and Harbor Springs. All of them have reputations as wealthy areas with vacation homes. It's not just a yooper vs troll thing, it's inland vs coast. Saltonstall is a native of Charlevoix, so it won't cut against her as much as it would a transplant, but how will that play in the more working class democrat strongholds there like Skidway Lake, Rogers City, Alpena, Standish, and Pinconning?

My money is on Stupak no matter how much money is spent. That said, as a Republican, I won't Saltonstall to win the primary because she will be a much easier general election opponent than Stupak.

8 comments:

Linda said...

I plan to take the first district seat. Please see lindaforcongress.com

Linda Goldthorpe

Tea Party at Perrysburg said...

He's toast. Everybody I know will donate to his Republican opponent's campaign. What a fool to accept an EO as a word of law when it is non-binding. This monstrosity will hang around HIS neck from now on. Fiscal irresponsibility? You betcha.

Timothy said...

Pro-life money will now pour in to defeat him too, starting with mine. Please the MI GOP to pick their nominee fast, because we need a horse to ride.

Mike's America said...

I'll host an online fundraiser for the GOP nominee to unseat Stupidpak!

Jim said...

Any decent Republican candidate who can get a web site up will be the beneficiary of lots of nationwide support. Let's go Michigan 1st! Get it together.

A massive money bomb against Stupak today would have sent a powerful message.

Cutman said...

I live in WA state and was very disappointed in Stupak's flip on such a big issue. His action have squashed any faith I had in a "pro-life dem." Never again will I be fooled. I have no stake in MI politics but you can bet the Republican front runner will get a campaign check from me.

Karen said...

Texans are just waiting for Stupak's republican opponent to be announced and the money will be flowing.

Communications guru said...

The good news is that people in that part of Michigan will not be fooled by that kind of out of state money, and money doesn’t buy votes. Ask Dick DeVos.