Michele Bachmann wins straw poll. Ron Paul 2nd

The important thing about the Ames Straw poll isn't just who wins, although it's a big deal for Bachmann who is now looking more as a serious candidate. What's also important is who places, and who craters. From Reuters

AMES, Iowa (Reuters) - Michele Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll on Saturday in the first big test of the 2012 Republican presidential race, as Texas Governor Rick Perry launched a White House bid that could reshape the race.

How important is winning the straw poll? I don't really like wikipedia as a source, but this looks legit.

1979 - Winner is George HW Bush. 1980 nominee - Ronald Reagan.
1987 - Pat Robertson won. George HW Bush nominee. Bush finished 3rd. Bob Dole finished 2nd.
1995 - Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied. Dole was nominee. Gramm dropped out early after losing Louisiana to Pat Buchanan.
1999 - George W Bush won. Bush was nominee.
2007 - Mitt Romney won. McCain was nominee. McCain finished 10th, while skipping the event.

In other words, it's historically important to place, if not necessarily win. Here's the results.

Place	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
1	Michele Bachmann	4,823	28.5%
2	Ron Paul	4,671	27.6%
3	Tim Pawlenty	2,293	13.6%
4	Rick Santorum	1,657	9.8%
5	Herman Cain	1,456	8.6%
6	Rick Perry (write-in)	718	4.3%
7	Mitt Romney	567	3.4%
8	Newt Gingrich	385	2.3%
9	Jon Huntsman	69	0.4%
10	Thaddeus McCotter	35	0.2%
—	Scattering	162	1.0%

According to National Review those competing in the Ames poll are Bachmann, Pawlenty, Paul, Cain, McCotter and Santorum. Romney, Huntsman, and Gingrich wern't competing as hard. Perry just announced. Palin isn't in, and probably got most of those 162 votes. McCotter was not allowed in the debate. 

My analysis and two cents on this.
Ames Winners:
Bachmann - She won it. She's on the map. She worked hard in Iowa and finished first. She is Iowa born, and that could have helped.

Paul - He's back. With the fiscal clustermuck, I think more conservatives that are less isolationist than he is will look at him more closely. Historically, there's always been a strong minority of republicans who are isolationist and more who are non-interventionist. I think it'll get stronger again as someone takes Pat Buchanan's old role. Ron Paul is becoming that face.

Rick Perry - He did the best by far of those skipping the race. He beat Mitt, who won this last time. He almost doubled Newt, and dwarfed McCotter and Huntsman. His 6th place finish was based solely on write-in votes. This is a good start for Perry.

Ames Losers
McCotter - I like Thad McCotter He's a good guy. I also think he should have run for senate instead. McCotter was locked out of the debate, so this isn't all his fault. However, 35 votes out of about 17000? He probably met more people than 35 in Iowa.

Huntsman - He can recover because he's a multi-millionaire many times over. This still isn't a good showing, even skipping the race. He'll have to make a big move in New Hampshire, McCain 08 style to have a shot.

Santorum - Santorum did better than I expected finishing 4th. The problem he has is that much of the same group that would vote for him would also vote for Bachmann. You won't out pro-life Santorum, but Bachmann can match Santorum in this area, both in stance and intensity.

Cain - I somewhat hesitate to put Cain here, but he finished behind most of the rest who competed strong in Ames. I think he'll survive this, but he'll have to make a move quick or he'll be just the protest vote candidate of 2012 of those who don't like the rest of the crowd. I think Ron Paul is hurting Cain. I like Cain, but his election history is his weak point. He finished 2nd in his one major statewide primary race in Georgia.

Newt Gingrich - Finished behind Romney and Perry and had probably close to 100% name recognition despite skipping the race.

Too Early to Tell:

Pawlenty. Was 3rd place enough? He got less than 1/2 of the votes of his fellow Minnesotan, but they were aimed at different crowds. I'm not ready to write off this campaign yet, but Pawlenty is going to have to make a move. He's going to have to dent Romney a bit and get a lot of the folks that would otherwise vote for him look at Pawlenty.

Romney - He announced he was skipping early on. He finished 7th, ahead of most who skipped the race, except Perry. Perry's votes were write in.

Fallout:
Who is going to drop? That's the most important fallout that happens due to Ames straw poll results. McCain stayed in despite 10th out of 11th in 07 and won nomination. He was in the same shoes Romney is now with a 2nd place finish in the last primary overall looking for another shot. Tommy Thompson finished 6th and dropped early due to the 07 performance. The field's starting to narrow some. The question is by how much. 

Recent 2012 Straw Poll (Family Research Council)

I found this interesting out of Politco

Mike Huckabee cruised to an easy victory in a presidential straw poll taken among attendees at a social conservative conference, beating a group of four other Republican contenders by an over two-to-one margin.

Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a 2008 presidential candidate, won with just over 28 percent of the 597 votes cast by attendees at the Family Research Council’s Values Voter Summit. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the runner-up, narrowly edging out Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Alaska Gov. and Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, and House Minority Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.). The four all received about 12% of the vote.

There was a fairly large political conference with the Family Research Council which is a social conservative organization. I didn't hear much about it, but they said it drew 1800 registrants. Their event was called the Values Voter Summit in DC. I ally with them heavily on abortion and the courts, but I do clash with them heavily on censorship/FCC issues with my less government views.

I went to their website and found the official straw poll results. They were interesting to say the least.

1. Mike Huckabee 170 28.48%
2. Mitt Romney 74 12.40%
3. Tim Pawlenty 73 12.23%
4. Sarah Palin 72 12.06%
5. Mike Pence 71 11.89%
6. Newt Gingrich 40 6.70%
7. Bobby Jindal 28 4.69%
8. Rick Santorum 15 2.51%
9. Ron Paul 13 2.18%
10. Undecided 31 5.19%
11. Other 10 1.68%

While nobody got a majority, Huckabee ran away with it with twice the votes of the nearest competitor. That's not a surprise. He was the favorite in 08 among a large number of social conservatives who voted mostly on those lines. The gripes on him were on economic issues.

It's not surprising to see Gingrich, Jindal, Santorum, and Paul back in the pack. Newt and Jindal's bread and butter are on fiscal issues. Santorum lost bad in 2006. Ron Paul is a libertarian.

What's interesting is numbers 2, 3, 4, and 5.

2. Mitt Romney 74 12.40%
3. Tim Pawlenty 73 12.23%
4. Sarah Palin 72 12.06%
5. Mike Pence 71 11.89%

I thought Palin would have challenged Huckabee. I wonder if her gubernatorial resignation hurt her. I did not support that decision at all if she's running for president. I'd have no problem if she decided not to run in 2010, but if you are planning a 2012 run, finish your term that ends two years earlier. Palin has her die-hard supporters who defend everything she does and her fanatical obsessed detractors that need to check into a mental hospital, but finishing behind Mitt and Pawlenty showed something.

Mitt likes to flood people in to events to win these straw polls, so he usually does well at them. A second place finish at one of these events helps him, but he already had high name recognition and with his organization, should have been able to close the deal back in 08. The nomination was his for the taking, and frankly for whatever reason. He blew it. He lost to McCain in a republican primary (so did Huckabee). That says something, and it's not positive. It wasn't just "democrat crossovers" like many on the right complain about either.

The big winners here were two Midwesterners. Tim Pawlenty and Mike Pence. I'm glad to see these two do well. I'm strongly looking at new blood for 2012. Nobody from 08. No retreads. Pawlenty is Minnesota's governor. I like seeing that name moving up if for no other reason than this. Governors become presidents. Senators rarely do. The last sitting senator to win before Obama was Kennedy (Nixon/LBJ were senators at one time, but also VP's), and Obama beat another senator. Pawlenty has a good shot to make a move on the 08 retreads.

Mike Pence I've talked about about on this blog before. It was good to see Pence do well here as he's more known for the economic issues than social issues. Whoever is the nominee in 08 will have to unite enough of the budget hawks, anti-tax and spenders, social conservatives, libertarians, anti-federalists (often what is called federalism today is really anti-federalism), second amendment supporters, national security conservatives, law and order types, and the rest of the base, and the independents who support some, but oppose other of the base issues.

My comment when Mark Sanford wrecked his career was this. "Damn. Maybe Mike Pence will run." If Pence runs, he'll have my support. Pence fought the bailouts that killed us. When Bush and the congressional leadership destroyed the GOP credibility on economic issues that is taking so long to gain back (more due to democrats than anything else - and it's still not what it was in the mid 90's), it was Pence fighting in the trenches. In 2006, Mike Pence and the Republican Study Committee proposed get this....a balanced budget. What happened to that? It got voted down by both parties, but the GOP was in control then. How many Republicans were tossed in 06 and 08? A lot. Who's still standing, in a district that Obama might have won and a district centered in a county (Delaware County - home of Ball State) that Obama did win? Mike Pence. With 65%.

It's still three years away from 2012, and a lot can change, especially with 2010 around the corner, but it is good to see new names going near the top of these 2012 lists.

Romney wins Straw Poll, Huckabee finishes 2nd

Interesting results. Giuliani and McCain skipped. Fred Thompson was on the ballot, but not an official candidate. From the AP/Forbes:

AMES, Iowa - Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won an easy and expected victory in a high-profile Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll on Saturday, claiming nearly twice as many votes as his nearest rival.

Romney had been expected to win the test because he spent millions of dollars and months of effort on an event that was skipped by two of his major rivals.

The Results:
1. Mitt Romney - 4516 - 31.5%
2. Mike Huckabee - 2587 - 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 2192 - 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 1961
5. Ron Paul - 1305
6. Tommy Thompson - 1039
7. Fred Thompson - 203
8. Rudy Giuliani - 183
9. Duncan Hunter - 174
10. John McCain - 101
11. John Cox - 41

Analysis:
The Winners:
Mitt Romney - He was expected to win. Anything less would be considered a loss. He met expectations and won by over 10% His biggest strength is his organization, and it came through for him.
Mike Huckabee - A strong 2nd. Most have not really heard of him. I thought he may be a darkhorse, but he exceeded my expectations there. He's an excellent speaker from a swing state and IMO won every debate I've seen him in. This is a big win, especially since it is not in the South.
Sam Brownback - He probably needed top 3, and got it. Iowa neighbors Kansas, and a less than top 3 showing may knock him out.

The Losers:
Tommy Thompson - He said if he didn't finish in the top 2, he would probably drop. 6th place is not even close, and that goes double for a Midwesterner.
Duncan Hunter - I like Hunter, but he needed to get momentum. If you just looked at background without taking in name recognition, money, and current office, he'd probably be the best candidate. 9th place finishing behind non candidates is a disaster. That's too bad. I think Tommy Thompson (Who I was considering) and Hunter (where I have been leaning) may be knocked out from this. At best, their campaign is in trouble. That's unfortunate.
John Cox - I don't know anything about him. Last place however is last place.

Too early to tell:
Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul - They showed that they are real candidates. They didn't get top three, but they placed and have something to build on in the next few months. I kind of thought that Ron Paul would finish top three, but internet support is different than ground support. Can he use it to his advantage. As far as Tancredo goes, immigration is a major issue. Can he branch off from that and go to other issues? We'll see.

Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain skipped the poll. Whether this hurts or helps remains to be seen. They didn't finish last either, and that's good for their campaign.

The biggest news I think was Huckabee's 2nd place finish. The question is will he build on this and join Romney, Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson in the "Top Tier." South Carolina will be his big test.