I'm a little surprised at the results coming in. This is the first actual poll that counts. New Hampshire is next January 10th, followed by South Carolina on January 21st and Florida on January 31st.
The Iowa caucuses count. They count more for momentum than anything else, but unlike the phone polls, these are binding and have a larger sample size. These are the actual votes.
There IS no recount. The result with 99% in is a likely very narrow victory for Mitt Romney. I say likely, because who knows what that 1% does.
1st - Mitt Romney - 25% - 30,015
2nd - Rick Santorum - 25% - 30,007
3rd - Ron Paul - 22% - 26,219
4th - Newt Gingrich - 14% - 16,251
5th - Rick Perry - 11% - 12,604
6th - Michele Bachmann - 5% - 6,073
7th - Jon Huntsman - Less than 1% - 745
8th - Herman Cain - Less than 1% - 58
Rick Santorum's results surprised me, and I'll admit a major bias against his chances due to 2006. He had very little money, but he outworked most candidates in Iowa. He's legitimate now in this election. The question is if he can sustain it going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Mitt Romney is going to go after him. That's what sunk Gingrich and dropped him to 4th. It may have an impact on Ron Paul as well.
Big winners:
1. Santorum - His late surge put him in the picture. He has a chance to be the "anti-Romney" candidate at the time it counts. He did this with almost no money. Eight votes away, and if there was a recount, could have made this even more interesting.
2. Romney - He wasn't contesting Iowa until late. He didn't bomb here. He didn't need to win here. New Hampshire is where he needs to win to stay around. His win here helps.
3. Paul - He's going to be a pain in the arse to the elites. Again. This year.
As for others, that doesn't mean they lost a chance for the nomination, but at best, they are going to have to fight against national momentum from Iowa with the next primary/caucuses. Some like Giuliani (2008) don't recover. At worst, they're done because of this. Those that lost here have added pressure in New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as Florida.
The question is what happens next? Do the rest of them stay in, and if so, for how long? Perry said he's going to go back to Texas and think about the results and make a further decision.
Once again, Romney can't break that 30% barrier, although neither can anyone else. He wasn't expected to really in Iowa, but he's got nearly all of the establishment in his corner, Foxnews in his corner, the pundits in his corner, and most of all elite level of organization and monetary support. On paper, he should run away with this. This is the "strong" candidate. This is the guy who is supposed to supposedly beat Obama. He's now essentially tied another candidate out of nowhere, and was viewed as dead in the water. Every time a candidate implodes, another one rises in the polls against Romney. This time it is Santorum. Out of nowhere, he almost beats Romney. If your campaign is based on being "the electable" one, you better do what Bush did in 2000 after the early scare and not be John McCain in 2008.
This is going to possibly be a long primary season, especially if it narrows into a three way fight with three different bases. If Santorum can solidify himself as THE one single "anti-Romney" candidate who isn't Ron Paul, it will be an interesting primary, and there will be no "inevitable" nominee, regardless of the wishes of the establishment. Romney will have to at best, earn this. That's good. That's why we have primaries.
On the same note, for all the folks against Romney, nobody there has caught on. I wonder if Pawlenty wishes he did not drop out.
As for Santorum, my concern with him is that he got trounced in 2006 by 18% to Bob Casey Jr. He went too native and Virginia instead of Suburban Pittsburgh and it cost him. That's weakness, and a big one. However, he also won elections he had no business winning on paper. He won a Pittsburgh area district in 1990 which was democrat for 12 years, and survived redistricting. In 1994, his district went democrat by 10% to Mike Doyle (still in Congress) when he won a US Senate seat (easier than his congressional district) in an upset over an incumbent democrat. He won re-election in 2000. He's won tough elections in the past as well as lost. However, he's also an ex-senator, and we know how many US Senators have become presidents. Harding, Obama, Kennedy, Nixon, LBJ, Harrison, and Andrew Johnson are the only ones in the modern political system post 1860.
New Hampshire's next. Romney needs to probably run away with this one in his backyard. If not, he's in big trouble. Santorum needs to at least place here in less friendly territory for him as New Hampshire has a bit of a libertarian and paleo conservative streak. Ron Paul could surprise a lot of people here.
South Carolina is unfriendly to Romney in the primary so there isn't high expectations for him there. Santorum will have to do well there or Romney will probably win the entire thing Snyder style due to split votes. If Romney wins here, I think he's got it.
The actual race has begun. So far the official standings are:
Romney - 13 Delegates
Santorum - 12 Delegates
Rest - 0
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Michele Bachmann wins straw poll. Ron Paul 2nd
The important thing about the Ames Straw poll isn't just who wins, although it's a big deal for Bachmann who is now looking more as a serious candidate. What's also important is who places, and who craters. From Reuters
How important is winning the straw poll? I don't really like wikipedia as a source, but this looks legit.
1979 - Winner is George HW Bush. 1980 nominee - Ronald Reagan.
1987 - Pat Robertson won. George HW Bush nominee. Bush finished 3rd. Bob Dole finished 2nd.
1995 - Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied. Dole was nominee. Gramm dropped out early after losing Louisiana to Pat Buchanan.
1999 - George W Bush won. Bush was nominee.
2007 - Mitt Romney won. McCain was nominee. McCain finished 10th, while skipping the event.
In other words, it's historically important to place, if not necessarily win. Here's the results.
According to National Review those competing in the Ames poll are Bachmann, Pawlenty, Paul, Cain, McCotter and Santorum. Romney, Huntsman, and Gingrich wern't competing as hard. Perry just announced. Palin isn't in, and probably got most of those 162 votes. McCotter was not allowed in the debate.
My analysis and two cents on this.
Ames Winners:
Bachmann - She won it. She's on the map. She worked hard in Iowa and finished first. She is Iowa born, and that could have helped.
Paul - He's back. With the fiscal clustermuck, I think more conservatives that are less isolationist than he is will look at him more closely. Historically, there's always been a strong minority of republicans who are isolationist and more who are non-interventionist. I think it'll get stronger again as someone takes Pat Buchanan's old role. Ron Paul is becoming that face.
Rick Perry - He did the best by far of those skipping the race. He beat Mitt, who won this last time. He almost doubled Newt, and dwarfed McCotter and Huntsman. His 6th place finish was based solely on write-in votes. This is a good start for Perry.
Ames Losers
McCotter - I like Thad McCotter He's a good guy. I also think he should have run for senate instead. McCotter was locked out of the debate, so this isn't all his fault. However, 35 votes out of about 17000? He probably met more people than 35 in Iowa.
Huntsman - He can recover because he's a multi-millionaire many times over. This still isn't a good showing, even skipping the race. He'll have to make a big move in New Hampshire, McCain 08 style to have a shot.
Santorum - Santorum did better than I expected finishing 4th. The problem he has is that much of the same group that would vote for him would also vote for Bachmann. You won't out pro-life Santorum, but Bachmann can match Santorum in this area, both in stance and intensity.
Cain - I somewhat hesitate to put Cain here, but he finished behind most of the rest who competed strong in Ames. I think he'll survive this, but he'll have to make a move quick or he'll be just the protest vote candidate of 2012 of those who don't like the rest of the crowd. I think Ron Paul is hurting Cain. I like Cain, but his election history is his weak point. He finished 2nd in his one major statewide primary race in Georgia.
Newt Gingrich - Finished behind Romney and Perry and had probably close to 100% name recognition despite skipping the race.
Too Early to Tell:
Pawlenty. Was 3rd place enough? He got less than 1/2 of the votes of his fellow Minnesotan, but they were aimed at different crowds. I'm not ready to write off this campaign yet, but Pawlenty is going to have to make a move. He's going to have to dent Romney a bit and get a lot of the folks that would otherwise vote for him look at Pawlenty.
Romney - He announced he was skipping early on. He finished 7th, ahead of most who skipped the race, except Perry. Perry's votes were write in.
Fallout:
Who is going to drop? That's the most important fallout that happens due to Ames straw poll results. McCain stayed in despite 10th out of 11th in 07 and won nomination. He was in the same shoes Romney is now with a 2nd place finish in the last primary overall looking for another shot. Tommy Thompson finished 6th and dropped early due to the 07 performance. The field's starting to narrow some. The question is by how much.
AMES, Iowa (Reuters) - Michele Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll on Saturday in the first big test of the 2012 Republican presidential race, as Texas Governor Rick Perry launched a White House bid that could reshape the race.
How important is winning the straw poll? I don't really like wikipedia as a source, but this looks legit.
1979 - Winner is George HW Bush. 1980 nominee - Ronald Reagan.
1987 - Pat Robertson won. George HW Bush nominee. Bush finished 3rd. Bob Dole finished 2nd.
1995 - Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied. Dole was nominee. Gramm dropped out early after losing Louisiana to Pat Buchanan.
1999 - George W Bush won. Bush was nominee.
2007 - Mitt Romney won. McCain was nominee. McCain finished 10th, while skipping the event.
In other words, it's historically important to place, if not necessarily win. Here's the results.
| Place | Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michele Bachmann | 4,823 | 28.5% |
| 2 | Ron Paul | 4,671 | 27.6% |
| 3 | Tim Pawlenty | 2,293 | 13.6% |
| 4 | Rick Santorum | 1,657 | 9.8% |
| 5 | Herman Cain | 1,456 | 8.6% |
| 6 | Rick Perry (write-in) | 718 | 4.3% |
| 7 | Mitt Romney | 567 | 3.4% |
| 8 | Newt Gingrich | 385 | 2.3% |
| 9 | Jon Huntsman | 69 | 0.4% |
| 10 | Thaddeus McCotter | 35 | 0.2% |
| — | Scattering | 162 | 1.0% |
According to National Review those competing in the Ames poll are Bachmann, Pawlenty, Paul, Cain, McCotter and Santorum. Romney, Huntsman, and Gingrich wern't competing as hard. Perry just announced. Palin isn't in, and probably got most of those 162 votes. McCotter was not allowed in the debate.
My analysis and two cents on this.
Ames Winners:
Bachmann - She won it. She's on the map. She worked hard in Iowa and finished first. She is Iowa born, and that could have helped.
Paul - He's back. With the fiscal clustermuck, I think more conservatives that are less isolationist than he is will look at him more closely. Historically, there's always been a strong minority of republicans who are isolationist and more who are non-interventionist. I think it'll get stronger again as someone takes Pat Buchanan's old role. Ron Paul is becoming that face.
Rick Perry - He did the best by far of those skipping the race. He beat Mitt, who won this last time. He almost doubled Newt, and dwarfed McCotter and Huntsman. His 6th place finish was based solely on write-in votes. This is a good start for Perry.
Ames Losers
McCotter - I like Thad McCotter He's a good guy. I also think he should have run for senate instead. McCotter was locked out of the debate, so this isn't all his fault. However, 35 votes out of about 17000? He probably met more people than 35 in Iowa.
Huntsman - He can recover because he's a multi-millionaire many times over. This still isn't a good showing, even skipping the race. He'll have to make a big move in New Hampshire, McCain 08 style to have a shot.
Santorum - Santorum did better than I expected finishing 4th. The problem he has is that much of the same group that would vote for him would also vote for Bachmann. You won't out pro-life Santorum, but Bachmann can match Santorum in this area, both in stance and intensity.
Cain - I somewhat hesitate to put Cain here, but he finished behind most of the rest who competed strong in Ames. I think he'll survive this, but he'll have to make a move quick or he'll be just the protest vote candidate of 2012 of those who don't like the rest of the crowd. I think Ron Paul is hurting Cain. I like Cain, but his election history is his weak point. He finished 2nd in his one major statewide primary race in Georgia.
Newt Gingrich - Finished behind Romney and Perry and had probably close to 100% name recognition despite skipping the race.
Too Early to Tell:
Pawlenty. Was 3rd place enough? He got less than 1/2 of the votes of his fellow Minnesotan, but they were aimed at different crowds. I'm not ready to write off this campaign yet, but Pawlenty is going to have to make a move. He's going to have to dent Romney a bit and get a lot of the folks that would otherwise vote for him look at Pawlenty.
Romney - He announced he was skipping early on. He finished 7th, ahead of most who skipped the race, except Perry. Perry's votes were write in.
Fallout:
Who is going to drop? That's the most important fallout that happens due to Ames straw poll results. McCain stayed in despite 10th out of 11th in 07 and won nomination. He was in the same shoes Romney is now with a 2nd place finish in the last primary overall looking for another shot. Tommy Thompson finished 6th and dropped early due to the 07 performance. The field's starting to narrow some. The question is by how much.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Electoral College - Part 6 - Midwest
Solid McCain - 11 votes
Solid Obama - 21 votes
Lean McCain - 28 votes
Tossup - 64 votes
Solid McCain
Nebraska (5 votes, all three districts) - There are actually four races in Nebraska for the president. The latest statewide poll has McCain up by 18. In 2004, Bush won it 66-33%, and in 2000 it was 62-33%. District 1 (Lincoln based) went 63-36% and 59-36% in 2004 and 2000. District 2 (Omaha) was 60-38% and 57-39%. Obama may make a run for it, but that's a lot of ground to make up. District 3 is the rural part and was 75-24% and 71-25%.
Kansas (6 votes) - Kansas has three political parties. The "conservative" Republicans. The "moderate" Republicans. The Democrats. It is competitive when the two Republican parties are at each others throats which is common right now with state issues. It hasn't happened in presidential races yet as the two Republican parties seem to be united on Obama. There's no local character involved here. Two August polls have McCain up 23 (Survey USA) and 14 (Rasmussen). With Palin on the ticket, this one is solid since the right won't stay home, and the moderates there probably like McCain quite a bit. Bush won it 62-37% in 04 and 58-37% in 00.
Solid Obama
Illinois (21 votes) - It's a solid democrat state even more so with the homer vote. Gore won it 55-43% and Kerry won it 55-44%. Rasmussen has Obama by 15 in August. That sounds about right here. Almost 40% of the vote is from Cook County (Chicago). It went 70-30 for Kerry giving a 850,000 vote spread. That doesn't account for Champaign, East St Louis, Quad Cities, and Madison County. Kerry won the state by 500,000 votes overall. The Suburban Chicago areas outside of Cook County are slightly Republican and are 1.2 million votes. That makes a small dent, along with the downstate areas. The counties with Peoria and Rockford are 50-50. Obama won 70-30 in 04 against Maryland resident Alan Keyes after dirty tricks by the Obama/Daley/Axelrod camp got Jack Ryan off the ballot. Will he get 70% here this year? Maybe not, but he'll win here.
Lean McCain
North Dakota (3 votes) - The polls have been nasty here for some reason. I haven't seen any non-partisan post convention polls. Bush won the state 63-35% in 2004 and 61-33% in 2000. They are notorious ticket splitters there however and sent two democrats to the senate. There's one August poll by the democrats that have Obama up by 3. One democrat poll in July has McCain up by 3. Rasmussen in July had him up by 1. It's enough of a concern to put this into a lean and not solid category, but past election performance keeps this out of a tossup. The worst case situation for the GOP is that this is West Virginia 2000 revisited. I do not expect that, but I'd keep an eye on it.
South Dakota (3 votes) - The polls haven't been as nasty here as North Dakota, surprising since it is less republican. Bush twice won here 60-38%. The most recent Rasmussen poll has McCain by 4. I have this in the same situation as North Dakota. Past election performance on presidential performance has this as a lean instead of a tossup. I'd keep an eye on here as well.
Missouri (11 votes) - For years it was the national bellwether always voting for the winner. It still is to a degree, although I'd give Ohio the edge there today. That doesn't mean Missouri isn't a battleground. I am surprised Obama hasn't pushed as hard there as he is in Indiana. Missouri is much more winnable for a presidential democrat. Bush won here 53-46% in 2004 and 50-47% in 2000. That's despite Kerry only winning four counties. Jackson (Kansas City), St Louis County, St Louis City, and Ste Genevieve. There is about a million votes in those four areas out of 2.6 million. Boone County is a 50-50 county likely going for Obama as it is home to the University of Missouri. The latest polls in August have McCain up by 10 (PPP - Democrat) and 6 (Rasmussen, non partisan). This one should hold.
Indiana (11 votes) - Obama has been working very hard here. Polls have been favorable as well. Three August polls have McCain up 2 (Howey Gauge), 6 (Survey USA), and 6 (Rasmussen). However, Bush won it 60-39% and 57-41%. The democrats have two strong bases. Lake County (Gary/Hammond) and Monroe County (Bloomington, home of Indiana University). Obama also has some help in the Chicago media here in the northwest part of the state. The keys here are this:
Indianapolis/Marion County - Kerry won it despite losing by 21pts. Obama needs to win big there.
South Bend/Elkhart - Bush won it in 04. It's economic liberal and social conservative. Somehow Obama put win that area big if he'll win the state.
Southern Indiana - It is more democrat, but Bush won big there in 04. Obama has to sell there if he'll win the state.
I can see one of those three things happening, but not all of them. I think this is like Bush's play for California in 2000.
Tossup:
Minnesota (10 votes) - I hesitated to put this in tossup because of its democrat heritage and polls, but the last two presidential elections here were 3% and 2% differences. Kerry won 51-48%, Gore 48-46%. All four August polls have Obama up, ranging from 2%(Survey USA) to 12% (Time). I think things will tighten up, but of the most competitive seats that went blue in 04, I think this will be the hardest for McCain to pick off. It is also the toughest state for me to predict. Mondale won here. So did Paul Wellstone. On the other hand, so did Rod Grams who was as far to the right as Wellstone was to the left. The democrat base is Duluth/Iron Range and Minneapolis/St Paul. There are also some scattered blue counties in the West and South end. The Republican base is the suburban counties surrounding the Twin Cities, and most the rural areas outside of the Iron Range and a few scattered counties. The Rochester area and St Cloud lean Republican, but Rochester isn't a gimme. If McCain can rack up big numbers in the base areas, along with the leaners, he has a shot if he can make inroads in the Iron Range. Whether he can or not remains to be seen.
Iowa (7 votes) - Iowa was one of three states to flip in 2004. Gore won it by about 4000 votes in 2000 and Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 04. Overall, I think this is by far Obama's best chance for a pickup and almost put this as leaning democrat. Iowa has a pacifist streak, and is the most pro-ethanol state in the union. McCain has long been hostile to ethanol. That means trouble. August polls range from Obama up 5 (Rasmussen) to 15 (Time). In short, Eastern Iowa leans democrat and Western and most of Central Iowa leans Republican. Davenport in Eastern Iowa is very slightly democrat with the Dubuque and Waterloo areas more so. The big base is Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. In Central Iowa, Des Moines and Ames areas are competitive, although Obama will likely do very well in Ames as it is a college town. The western area is largely Dutch and about as Republican as Ottawa County in Michigan. The central farm areas are more leaners, although I'm not sure about that with the ethanol issue. I think this one is trouble.
Wisconsin (10 votes) - One of the closest states the last two elections. Kerry won it by 11,000 votes in 04, and Gore by 5700 votes in 2000. There's five main democrat bases. Milwaukee, Dane County (Madison), Rock County (Janesville), the Southwest (Eau Claire, LaCrosse) and Northwest (Superior). The Republican areas are the areas just North of Milwaukee. Unless you count Ottawa County as suburban, Waukesha is probably the most Republican suburban county in the Midwest outside of a couple of the Cincy suburbs. The other suburban areas are strong Republican. Green Bay area(outside 06) leans Republican in federal elections, but I believe it is more ticket splitter. I'm not positive on that, but that's common in the North and things have been competitive. Most of the interior leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like the rural areas in Nebraska. If McCain can cut the democrat margins in rural areas and the Northwest and hold the areas that Bush had in 2004 he wins. Polls here are starting to get closer. Strategic Vision (R) has the only post convention poll with Obama by 3. Others in August has it 6 (WPRI) and 7 (Rasmussen). It's going to be close here I think once again in the end and come down to turnout.
Ohio (21 votes), Michigan (17 votes)- I'll get to these two states later as I know them best.
Solid Obama - 21 votes
Lean McCain - 28 votes
Tossup - 64 votes
Solid McCain
Nebraska (5 votes, all three districts) - There are actually four races in Nebraska for the president. The latest statewide poll has McCain up by 18. In 2004, Bush won it 66-33%, and in 2000 it was 62-33%. District 1 (Lincoln based) went 63-36% and 59-36% in 2004 and 2000. District 2 (Omaha) was 60-38% and 57-39%. Obama may make a run for it, but that's a lot of ground to make up. District 3 is the rural part and was 75-24% and 71-25%.
Kansas (6 votes) - Kansas has three political parties. The "conservative" Republicans. The "moderate" Republicans. The Democrats. It is competitive when the two Republican parties are at each others throats which is common right now with state issues. It hasn't happened in presidential races yet as the two Republican parties seem to be united on Obama. There's no local character involved here. Two August polls have McCain up 23 (Survey USA) and 14 (Rasmussen). With Palin on the ticket, this one is solid since the right won't stay home, and the moderates there probably like McCain quite a bit. Bush won it 62-37% in 04 and 58-37% in 00.
Solid Obama
Illinois (21 votes) - It's a solid democrat state even more so with the homer vote. Gore won it 55-43% and Kerry won it 55-44%. Rasmussen has Obama by 15 in August. That sounds about right here. Almost 40% of the vote is from Cook County (Chicago). It went 70-30 for Kerry giving a 850,000 vote spread. That doesn't account for Champaign, East St Louis, Quad Cities, and Madison County. Kerry won the state by 500,000 votes overall. The Suburban Chicago areas outside of Cook County are slightly Republican and are 1.2 million votes. That makes a small dent, along with the downstate areas. The counties with Peoria and Rockford are 50-50. Obama won 70-30 in 04 against Maryland resident Alan Keyes after dirty tricks by the Obama/Daley/Axelrod camp got Jack Ryan off the ballot. Will he get 70% here this year? Maybe not, but he'll win here.
Lean McCain
North Dakota (3 votes) - The polls have been nasty here for some reason. I haven't seen any non-partisan post convention polls. Bush won the state 63-35% in 2004 and 61-33% in 2000. They are notorious ticket splitters there however and sent two democrats to the senate. There's one August poll by the democrats that have Obama up by 3. One democrat poll in July has McCain up by 3. Rasmussen in July had him up by 1. It's enough of a concern to put this into a lean and not solid category, but past election performance keeps this out of a tossup. The worst case situation for the GOP is that this is West Virginia 2000 revisited. I do not expect that, but I'd keep an eye on it.
South Dakota (3 votes) - The polls haven't been as nasty here as North Dakota, surprising since it is less republican. Bush twice won here 60-38%. The most recent Rasmussen poll has McCain by 4. I have this in the same situation as North Dakota. Past election performance on presidential performance has this as a lean instead of a tossup. I'd keep an eye on here as well.
Missouri (11 votes) - For years it was the national bellwether always voting for the winner. It still is to a degree, although I'd give Ohio the edge there today. That doesn't mean Missouri isn't a battleground. I am surprised Obama hasn't pushed as hard there as he is in Indiana. Missouri is much more winnable for a presidential democrat. Bush won here 53-46% in 2004 and 50-47% in 2000. That's despite Kerry only winning four counties. Jackson (Kansas City), St Louis County, St Louis City, and Ste Genevieve. There is about a million votes in those four areas out of 2.6 million. Boone County is a 50-50 county likely going for Obama as it is home to the University of Missouri. The latest polls in August have McCain up by 10 (PPP - Democrat) and 6 (Rasmussen, non partisan). This one should hold.
Indiana (11 votes) - Obama has been working very hard here. Polls have been favorable as well. Three August polls have McCain up 2 (Howey Gauge), 6 (Survey USA), and 6 (Rasmussen). However, Bush won it 60-39% and 57-41%. The democrats have two strong bases. Lake County (Gary/Hammond) and Monroe County (Bloomington, home of Indiana University). Obama also has some help in the Chicago media here in the northwest part of the state. The keys here are this:
Indianapolis/Marion County - Kerry won it despite losing by 21pts. Obama needs to win big there.
South Bend/Elkhart - Bush won it in 04. It's economic liberal and social conservative. Somehow Obama put win that area big if he'll win the state.
Southern Indiana - It is more democrat, but Bush won big there in 04. Obama has to sell there if he'll win the state.
I can see one of those three things happening, but not all of them. I think this is like Bush's play for California in 2000.
Tossup:
Minnesota (10 votes) - I hesitated to put this in tossup because of its democrat heritage and polls, but the last two presidential elections here were 3% and 2% differences. Kerry won 51-48%, Gore 48-46%. All four August polls have Obama up, ranging from 2%(Survey USA) to 12% (Time). I think things will tighten up, but of the most competitive seats that went blue in 04, I think this will be the hardest for McCain to pick off. It is also the toughest state for me to predict. Mondale won here. So did Paul Wellstone. On the other hand, so did Rod Grams who was as far to the right as Wellstone was to the left. The democrat base is Duluth/Iron Range and Minneapolis/St Paul. There are also some scattered blue counties in the West and South end. The Republican base is the suburban counties surrounding the Twin Cities, and most the rural areas outside of the Iron Range and a few scattered counties. The Rochester area and St Cloud lean Republican, but Rochester isn't a gimme. If McCain can rack up big numbers in the base areas, along with the leaners, he has a shot if he can make inroads in the Iron Range. Whether he can or not remains to be seen.
Iowa (7 votes) - Iowa was one of three states to flip in 2004. Gore won it by about 4000 votes in 2000 and Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 04. Overall, I think this is by far Obama's best chance for a pickup and almost put this as leaning democrat. Iowa has a pacifist streak, and is the most pro-ethanol state in the union. McCain has long been hostile to ethanol. That means trouble. August polls range from Obama up 5 (Rasmussen) to 15 (Time). In short, Eastern Iowa leans democrat and Western and most of Central Iowa leans Republican. Davenport in Eastern Iowa is very slightly democrat with the Dubuque and Waterloo areas more so. The big base is Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. In Central Iowa, Des Moines and Ames areas are competitive, although Obama will likely do very well in Ames as it is a college town. The western area is largely Dutch and about as Republican as Ottawa County in Michigan. The central farm areas are more leaners, although I'm not sure about that with the ethanol issue. I think this one is trouble.
Wisconsin (10 votes) - One of the closest states the last two elections. Kerry won it by 11,000 votes in 04, and Gore by 5700 votes in 2000. There's five main democrat bases. Milwaukee, Dane County (Madison), Rock County (Janesville), the Southwest (Eau Claire, LaCrosse) and Northwest (Superior). The Republican areas are the areas just North of Milwaukee. Unless you count Ottawa County as suburban, Waukesha is probably the most Republican suburban county in the Midwest outside of a couple of the Cincy suburbs. The other suburban areas are strong Republican. Green Bay area(outside 06) leans Republican in federal elections, but I believe it is more ticket splitter. I'm not positive on that, but that's common in the North and things have been competitive. Most of the interior leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like the rural areas in Nebraska. If McCain can cut the democrat margins in rural areas and the Northwest and hold the areas that Bush had in 2004 he wins. Polls here are starting to get closer. Strategic Vision (R) has the only post convention poll with Obama by 3. Others in August has it 6 (WPRI) and 7 (Rasmussen). It's going to be close here I think once again in the end and come down to turnout.
Ohio (21 votes), Michigan (17 votes)- I'll get to these two states later as I know them best.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Joe Biden taps out after Iowa
Not a real surprise here.
There was no mention of any endorsement in the article.
DES MOINES, Iowa - Delaware Sen. Joe Biden abandoned his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday after a poor showing in the state's caucuses.
"There is nothing sad about tonight. We are so incredibly proud of you all," Biden told his supporters. "So many of you have sacrificed for me and I am so indebted to you. I feel no regret. I ain't goin' away.
"I want to thank the people of Delaware and I'll be going back to the Senate as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee," he said.
(snip)
There was no mention of any endorsement in the article.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Game 1 over, Huckabee, Obama winners
(All as of 11PM)
I'm really not surprised at this. From CNN 100% isn't in yet, but it's not that close.
These are caucuses, not primaries. I'm not positive on this, but I think the precinct delegates are the voters, at least on the democrat side. I may be wrong on that, but that's how I interpret the results. 910 for the winner seems awful small otherwise, and I have a hard time believing that Kucinich would not get at least one vote in Iowa City or Ames. On the GOP side, it's closer to a closed primary, but not quite as open as that as it is a caucus.
GOP: 78% Reporting
Name Votes %
Huckabee - 35,342 - 34%
Romney - 26,067 - 25%
Thompson - 13,805 - 13%
McCain - 13,509 - 13%
Paul - 10,006 - 10%
Giuliani - 3576 - 4%
Hunter - 454 - 1%
Dem: 96% reporting
Name State Delegates %
Obama - 922 - 38%
Edwards - 732 - 30%
Clinton - 721 - 29%
Richardson - 52 - 2%
Biden - 23 - 1%
Uncommitted - 3 - less than 1%
Dodd - 1 - less than 1%
Kucinich - 0
Gravel - 0
Back to the GOP side, I figured Huckabee would win big. Iowa strikes me as a social moderate to conservative state and an economic moderate to liberal state. Dukakis won here big over the farm troubles in the 80's. Ethanol is a big.
McCain's fighting for 3rd place surprised me as he's not an ethanol fan. It hurt him bad in 2000 here. Giuliani must have conceded the state with his 2nd to last place finish. Romney's 2nd place showing doesn't surprise me in a caucus type of setup where the organization determines much of the vote. Romney's campaign is one of the best organized in the country. Thompson and Paul finished about where I expected in Iowa as well.
But Huckabee won IMO for three reasons. One is the economic populism. In Iowa, that's an advantage. Another is the social issues. There is no doubt to where Huckabee stands on those issues. Northwest Iowa is one of the most conservative areas in the entire country (Dutch area, think Zeeland/Hudsonville MI). In a caucus, all that is magnified. Third is agribusiness. Huckabee is from an agricultural state. In Arkansas, it's chicken production. In Iowa it's corn.
Game 1 is over. The question is now what happens in the rest of the games. Wyoming and New Hampshire are up next.
Standings after 1 (As of 11PM)
GOP: (Projected)
Huckabee 14
Romney 9
Thompson 3
McCain 3
Paul 2
Rest 0
Dem (Projected)
Obama 16
Clinton 15 (Not sure why Clinton is ahead of Edwards)
Edwards 14
Rest none
I'm really not surprised at this. From CNN 100% isn't in yet, but it's not that close.
These are caucuses, not primaries. I'm not positive on this, but I think the precinct delegates are the voters, at least on the democrat side. I may be wrong on that, but that's how I interpret the results. 910 for the winner seems awful small otherwise, and I have a hard time believing that Kucinich would not get at least one vote in Iowa City or Ames. On the GOP side, it's closer to a closed primary, but not quite as open as that as it is a caucus.
GOP: 78% Reporting
Name Votes %
Huckabee - 35,342 - 34%
Romney - 26,067 - 25%
Thompson - 13,805 - 13%
McCain - 13,509 - 13%
Paul - 10,006 - 10%
Giuliani - 3576 - 4%
Hunter - 454 - 1%
Dem: 96% reporting
Name State Delegates %
Obama - 922 - 38%
Edwards - 732 - 30%
Clinton - 721 - 29%
Richardson - 52 - 2%
Biden - 23 - 1%
Uncommitted - 3 - less than 1%
Dodd - 1 - less than 1%
Kucinich - 0
Gravel - 0
Back to the GOP side, I figured Huckabee would win big. Iowa strikes me as a social moderate to conservative state and an economic moderate to liberal state. Dukakis won here big over the farm troubles in the 80's. Ethanol is a big.
McCain's fighting for 3rd place surprised me as he's not an ethanol fan. It hurt him bad in 2000 here. Giuliani must have conceded the state with his 2nd to last place finish. Romney's 2nd place showing doesn't surprise me in a caucus type of setup where the organization determines much of the vote. Romney's campaign is one of the best organized in the country. Thompson and Paul finished about where I expected in Iowa as well.
But Huckabee won IMO for three reasons. One is the economic populism. In Iowa, that's an advantage. Another is the social issues. There is no doubt to where Huckabee stands on those issues. Northwest Iowa is one of the most conservative areas in the entire country (Dutch area, think Zeeland/Hudsonville MI). In a caucus, all that is magnified. Third is agribusiness. Huckabee is from an agricultural state. In Arkansas, it's chicken production. In Iowa it's corn.
Game 1 is over. The question is now what happens in the rest of the games. Wyoming and New Hampshire are up next.
Standings after 1 (As of 11PM)
GOP: (Projected)
Huckabee 14
Romney 9
Thompson 3
McCain 3
Paul 2
Rest 0
Dem (Projected)
Obama 16
Clinton 15 (Not sure why Clinton is ahead of Edwards)
Edwards 14
Rest none
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Romney wins Straw Poll, Huckabee finishes 2nd
Interesting results. Giuliani and McCain skipped. Fred Thompson was on the ballot, but not an official candidate. From the AP/Forbes:
The Results:
1. Mitt Romney - 4516 - 31.5%
2. Mike Huckabee - 2587 - 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 2192 - 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 1961
5. Ron Paul - 1305
6. Tommy Thompson - 1039
7. Fred Thompson - 203
8. Rudy Giuliani - 183
9. Duncan Hunter - 174
10. John McCain - 101
11. John Cox - 41
Analysis:
The Winners:
Mitt Romney - He was expected to win. Anything less would be considered a loss. He met expectations and won by over 10% His biggest strength is his organization, and it came through for him.
Mike Huckabee - A strong 2nd. Most have not really heard of him. I thought he may be a darkhorse, but he exceeded my expectations there. He's an excellent speaker from a swing state and IMO won every debate I've seen him in. This is a big win, especially since it is not in the South.
Sam Brownback - He probably needed top 3, and got it. Iowa neighbors Kansas, and a less than top 3 showing may knock him out.
The Losers:
Tommy Thompson - He said if he didn't finish in the top 2, he would probably drop. 6th place is not even close, and that goes double for a Midwesterner.
Duncan Hunter - I like Hunter, but he needed to get momentum. If you just looked at background without taking in name recognition, money, and current office, he'd probably be the best candidate. 9th place finishing behind non candidates is a disaster. That's too bad. I think Tommy Thompson (Who I was considering) and Hunter (where I have been leaning) may be knocked out from this. At best, their campaign is in trouble. That's unfortunate.
John Cox - I don't know anything about him. Last place however is last place.
Too early to tell:
Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul - They showed that they are real candidates. They didn't get top three, but they placed and have something to build on in the next few months. I kind of thought that Ron Paul would finish top three, but internet support is different than ground support. Can he use it to his advantage. As far as Tancredo goes, immigration is a major issue. Can he branch off from that and go to other issues? We'll see.
Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain skipped the poll. Whether this hurts or helps remains to be seen. They didn't finish last either, and that's good for their campaign.
The biggest news I think was Huckabee's 2nd place finish. The question is will he build on this and join Romney, Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson in the "Top Tier." South Carolina will be his big test.
AMES, Iowa - Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won an easy and expected victory in a high-profile Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll on Saturday, claiming nearly twice as many votes as his nearest rival.
Romney had been expected to win the test because he spent millions of dollars and months of effort on an event that was skipped by two of his major rivals.
The Results:
1. Mitt Romney - 4516 - 31.5%
2. Mike Huckabee - 2587 - 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 2192 - 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 1961
5. Ron Paul - 1305
6. Tommy Thompson - 1039
7. Fred Thompson - 203
8. Rudy Giuliani - 183
9. Duncan Hunter - 174
10. John McCain - 101
11. John Cox - 41
Analysis:
The Winners:
Mitt Romney - He was expected to win. Anything less would be considered a loss. He met expectations and won by over 10% His biggest strength is his organization, and it came through for him.
Mike Huckabee - A strong 2nd. Most have not really heard of him. I thought he may be a darkhorse, but he exceeded my expectations there. He's an excellent speaker from a swing state and IMO won every debate I've seen him in. This is a big win, especially since it is not in the South.
Sam Brownback - He probably needed top 3, and got it. Iowa neighbors Kansas, and a less than top 3 showing may knock him out.
The Losers:
Tommy Thompson - He said if he didn't finish in the top 2, he would probably drop. 6th place is not even close, and that goes double for a Midwesterner.
Duncan Hunter - I like Hunter, but he needed to get momentum. If you just looked at background without taking in name recognition, money, and current office, he'd probably be the best candidate. 9th place finishing behind non candidates is a disaster. That's too bad. I think Tommy Thompson (Who I was considering) and Hunter (where I have been leaning) may be knocked out from this. At best, their campaign is in trouble. That's unfortunate.
John Cox - I don't know anything about him. Last place however is last place.
Too early to tell:
Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul - They showed that they are real candidates. They didn't get top three, but they placed and have something to build on in the next few months. I kind of thought that Ron Paul would finish top three, but internet support is different than ground support. Can he use it to his advantage. As far as Tancredo goes, immigration is a major issue. Can he branch off from that and go to other issues? We'll see.
Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain skipped the poll. Whether this hurts or helps remains to be seen. They didn't finish last either, and that's good for their campaign.
The biggest news I think was Huckabee's 2nd place finish. The question is will he build on this and join Romney, Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson in the "Top Tier." South Carolina will be his big test.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
