WALLY boondoggle still planned

It's April Fool's Day. Speaking of April Fools, that infamous WALLY train isn't going away. 

From the Ann Arbor News

Local officials working on the WALLY commuter rail project say city-owned property at 415 W. Washington St. is a potential site for a future downtown Ann Arbor train station.
"The 415 site is a candidate, but is not the only possibility," said Michael Benham, the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority's strategic planner.
Benham said work has just begun on the first phase of the WALLY Station Location and Design Project, which includes a search for a downtown station location.

A couple of paragraphs later

A commuter rail station at 415 W. Washington is unlikely to happen until years into the future even if the site is chosen and funding becomes available. In theory, it would service the north-south commuter rail line known as WALLY (Washtenaw and Livingston Line), which is in the planning stages now and would link Ann Arbor and Howell with stops in between.
The plans for a downtown commuter rail station along the north-south Ann Arbor Railroad tracks are entirely separate from the new Amtrak passenger train station some city officials want to see built on Fuller Road along the east-west Norfolk Southern tracks between Detroit and Chicago.

In theory........ How often to projects in theory don't happen the way people think will happen. Remember the people mover in Detroit?

A previous study estimated about 1,300 riders each way per day would use a commuter rail service between Ann Arbor and Howell.
It's also estimated to require $19 million to $35 million in capital costs. The total estimated operating cost is about $7.1 million annually.
Benham said much of that would be covered by passenger fares plus an assumed level of state operating funds, resulting in a local share of about $2.2 million. So-called "wild cards" that could affect operating costs are insurance and trackage rights.

Supporters of a north-south rail line bringing commuters into Ann Arbor argue it would be significantly more costly to add extra highway lanes for automobile traffic on US-23. The Michigan Department of Transportation previously estimated adding a third lane to US-23 would cost about $500 million.
Some remain skeptical there's enough demand to support WALLY, though, and some question the money being spent to investigate multiple long-range transit initiatives at once.

I'm waiting for this "$7.1 million" to go up to 14 million in operating costs along with the $35 million capital costs that was once "2.9 million". It was originally supposed to be 4 million in operating costs. I wrote this in 2007 and still don't see how the math works.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

This quote from the Ann Arbor mayor got a chuckle out of me.

He noted the University of Michigan has offered to subsidize the cost of WALLY tickets for its employees who want to commute to work by rail.
"As I recall, back in 2007 or '08, the U-M surveyed their employees who lived in zip codes along the WALLY line and 1,400 of them said they would ride the train if given the choice," he said.

Zip code? Mayor, do you know how large the zip codes are in Livingston County? 48843 runs from South Genoa Twp to the Genesee County line. Besides. 1400? That won't break even under the old estimates.

Let's remember who we are. We're a spread out semi-rural county. Homes are spread out. Countywide, Livingston County has about 180,000 people. Washtenaw County about 345,000. Between both counties, there is about 550,000 people. The only dense population pockets in that area along the train route are a small part of Ann Arbor near Barton Rd, one block of Hamburg, and Downtown Howell. This route doesn't cover Ypsi or Brighton.

Not one time of Livingston County, State, or Federal money should go to this project. If Washtenaw or A2 wants to bankroll this, that's their business since I don't live there. 

WALLY Train to Nowhere push continues

The Argus has another story on the WALLY train.

The planned Washtenaw and Livingston Line commuter train is among multiple mass-transit projects Michiganders can "taste" and "feel," though taxpayer-dollar commitment to the projects remains uncertain, a regional planning official said Tuesday.

 The tax payer dollar commitment should be ZERO. From a practical standpoint alone, we need to remember this. We are Livingston County. Homes are spread out. People like the autonomy that comes with cars. Driving to the stations take nearly as much time as the drive to the destination. It's impracticable. 
 

"They are literally on the rails right now to make sure that they're going to be safe," Tait said at Tuesday's Good Morning Livingston program at Chemung Hills Golf Club & Banquet Center in Oceola Township.

"I've not seen such enthusiasm for transit throughout the region in a long, long time, if ever," he added. "I think we're on the cusp of good things happening. It's just we've got to keep pushing."
While the plans are moving forward, all transit systems rely on some level of private and public investment, Tait said.
WALLY is expected to have about $7 million in annual operating expenses, about 30 percent of which would be offset by rider fares, said Michael Benham, strategic planner for the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, which oversees WALLY.

 Construction of WALLY on existing rail lines is expected to cost $41 million.
 

The cost keeps going up, up, up, and up. I thought it was 4.9 million a year?  I wrote this back in 2007, and this covers what it takes to break even under the much lower cost estimates.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

 It ain't going to cover even close to the costs. Tait says this here when he mentions the T word. Taxes.

Tait said local taxes, while unpopular, will be essential to any of the transit projects coming to fruition under a transit authority.
"We have to agree that transit is a worthy investment" to move forward, he said.
To date, the city of Howell has invested in WALLY's planning stages, but the Livingston County Board of Commissioners and most of the county's local governments have declined investing in the project.
Hamburg Township officials have expressed interest in investing at least a nominal amount of money to WALLY. Washtenaw County and the Ann Arbor Downtown Development Authority have pledged dollars toward the project.

Kudos for the commissioners getting it.  It's not a worthy investment, unless private funds take care of it.

Benham said motorists and homeowners who don't use WALLY would benefit from less traffic congestion, increased property values and a decrease in vehicle emissions. He said mass transit draws commercial interest, which in turn boosts tax revenue and the values of homes.
"We're not talking about WALLY versus highway. It's not an either-or," Benham, a former rail coordinator in Chicago, said. "We're talking about balance and choice."

It IS an either or because money that goes here comes from somewhere. Taxes. There won't be less congestion. 1800 commuters a day - at best, won't ease congestion on two-lane each way freeways that get 50,000+ cars a day. Keep in mind this train doesn't go to Brighton or Hartland, only Howell, maybe Hamburg, and western Genoa Twp.

Let's be who we are, a semi-rural county with rural values. Besides, the less Ann Arbor influence here the better.

WALLY Train to Nowhere still somehow around

The Train to Nowhere is still being pushed. This waste of money has being talked about for years and has been pushed since 2007. It was a waste of money then, and is now.

From the Argus

Growing ridership on rail lines in other states indicates the proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line communter train between Howell and Ann Arbor is primed for success, Michael Benham said.
Benham, rail coordinator for the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, which oversees WALLY, will bring that message to two upcoming programs in the county.
He's slated to discuss WALLY on Oct. 31 for a Livingston County Department of Planning event, and again Nov. 13 for the Howell Area Chamber of Commerce Good Morning Livingston series.
The most recent project development came in August, when a $640,000 federal grant to help pinpoint costs of the rail project was announced, Benham said.
He said there has been a "reawakening of interest" in WALLY in the county since announcement of the grant, which will be used to complete preliminary engineering and station design.

They later compare this to a project in Nashville. There's a big difference between Nashville and the Ann Arbor/Livingston County corridor.  I'll just state the obvious.

Population of Nashville - 600,000

Ann Arbor - 114,000
Northfield Township - 8200
Hamburg Township - 21,000
Genoa Township - about 20,000
Howell - 9500

Nashville has four times the population of the areas affected heavily from the Train to Nowhere. It's also a helluva lot more dense in population than all of these areas except possibly (and I'm being generous) Ann Arbor and Howell. In addition, the Ann Arbor train station isn't downtown, but Plymouth Road. Downtown  Ann Arbor isn't covered except by a shuttle. The Genoa Station would be in the most rural part of the township. All that's there is Vic and Bob's Party Store. The Northfield Station would be in an industrial spread out part of the township away from downtown Whitmore Lake - which isn't that bad to begin with. .

People would have to drive to use the train. This is like one of those Solyndra Green Jobs Charlie Foxtrots.

And there's this:

WALLY has been estimated to cost $32 million. The Livingston County Board of Commissioners said early on that it would not financially support rail operations. Genoa Township officials have declined funding as well.
Hamburg Township officials have expressed interest in investing at least a nominal amount of money in the railway effort.
The city of Howell supports the project, both in spirit and in dollars. The city contributed money for project planning when WALLY was first being evaluated as well as later for station design work.<.

Kudos to the County Commissioners for saying no. I wrote this back in 2007 back when the startup costs were estimated at 3 million.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

In order for this to pay for itself, the ridership would need to cover salaries, parking, security, maintenance, infrastructure, and everything else. This area doesn't have the population to cover a mass rail project. We aren't the big city. We shouldn't try to be.

The WALLY Train to Nowhere hangs around like a skunk spray

Lately when I've been at my parents' house and leave at night, I have to keep my eyes open. On several occasions, I see one of the worst types of varmints around. A skunk. Another time, it sprayed a coyote or something outside, and some of that bad air drifted inside. Those damn things walk around like they own the property. They do. There's not much I can do about it except hope it goes away. I'm not going to chase it. Obvious reasons. I can't shoot it. I may miss or worse....hit it in the wrong spot spraying the entire area. I don't want to have to explain that one to ma and pa.

That smell doesn't go away. Neither seems to be this big government boondoggle called the "WALLY" train, also known as the train to nowhere. I've posted about this Train to Nowhere for four years. It's a waste of tax money. It's still being discussed, and there's still talk about this mess. New Geography does a good job debunking them in general and this one here is close to home.

From the Argus

Signs are emerging that the proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line commuter train isn't running full-steam ahead — at least for the time being.

The Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, which oversees planning for WALLY — proposed to stretch from Howell to Ann Arbor — has delayed spending more money on the project until local support is confirmed, Michael Benham, the authority's rail coordinator, said.

Benham on Nov. 17 is expected to update the authority's Board of Directors on public support for the project at the board's regular meeting.

He said past public surveys and input from local officials suggest most Washtenaw and Livingston residents at least support WALLY in concept......

In concept. A lot of things are good "in concept" until something called reality hits. There's more.

To date, only small amounts of money have been spent by the authority in planning the projected $32 million-plus project, Benham said. He said funding from grants and local contributions, including from Howell, is in place for the design work, however.

He said it's possible for the board to vote to eliminate the project, but not likely: WALLY is included in the authority's 30-year transit master plan.

"I think, long-term, there's no question of our support for that project," Benham said.

Support in Livingston County is less certain.

Hamburg Township officials have expressed interest in investing at least a nominal amount of money in the railway effort. The county government and Genoa Township officials have declined funding, however.

Howell officials continue to support the project, City Manager Shea Charles said. The city also contributed dollars to project planning when it was first being evaluated.

32 million. (forehead slap) Right now, Rick Snyder is pushing for increases in car registrations that doubles the costs of tags. He's also pushing for a gas tax increase. That's supposed for "transportation." Is that transportation going to be roads or trains to nowhere? At least County and my old home of Genoa Twp realizes this is a money pit.

Rich Perlberg had an aptly titled editorial. The Little Engine that Won't go Away. I don't usually agree with Rich, but that's a good editorial about the Train to Nowhere.

Now why do I oppose the train to nowhere? The number one reason is that it won't pay for itself.

I wrote this back in 2007. This is response to an estimated 4.9 million a year budget that was given at the time. I expect that number to be MUCH higher.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

Remember that this train does not go to Brighton or Hartland. The railroad tracks there a different line (CSX).

This is still a waste of money. If "light rail" is the right thing to use in this area, someone in the private sector would have created it and used it.

WALLY train denied $25 million

I hope this puts the proposed boondoggle to rest.

From the Argus

The planned Washtenaw and Livingston Line between Howell and Ann Arbor on Wednesday lost a bid for $25 million in federal funds to get the commuter railroad up and running.

It was the second time WALLY has been rejected for Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery funding through the U.S. Department of Transportation.
The first failed TIGER application was for $32.4 million.
The grant would have allowed a WALLY startup date to be set, but losing the contest won’t hinder WALLY’s progress, said Michael Benham, rail coordinator for the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority. The authority oversees the WALLY project.
“The timeline has always been uncertain just because of funding. Startup can only occur with the completion of the funding package,” Benham said. “It’s really hard to speculate when that will be.”

The pushers for WALLY aren't done looking for more government subsidies for their project and we all need to stay alert so this boondoggle doesn't waste our money. We can't afford this, and this won't even come close to paying for itself.

Democrat county commissioner candidates push for WALLY Train to Nowhere

Here we go again. Democrats want to bring this to the county:

From Judy Daubenmier at "Living Blue"

And they urged the county commisison to at least study the proposed WALLY commuter rail line between Howell and Ann Arbor -- a project supported by chambers of commerce in Brighton and Howell, as well as by the city of Howell and Hamburg Township.

Good ole WALLY trains. It's like Eminem or the band Green Day and that awful voice. When you think it goes away, it comes back and gets worse.

We had studies on WALLY. The county commission, rightly so, said no tax money goes to WALLY. There's been several estimates on WALLY costs. The latest from AA Chronicle is 9 million for trains, 4.3 million for station fundings, 7.1 million annual funding. They expect 1300 passengers a day. 1300 passengers a day? That covers jacksquat.

In 2009, they asked for 32 million in startup. Their 07 budget said the budget was 5 million a year.

According to the startup budget given in 2007, which was increased, I said you needed 1814 commuters a day, including weekends to break even.

"4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.


In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.""

This train does not cover Brighton, Hartland, Fenton/Tyrone, South Lyon, or Pinckney. The railroad tracks in Brighton are from the C&O railroad, not the Ann Arbor Railroad. The only area covered with ANY density is Howell. The rest is all spread out. They spin by calling Chilson Rd "Brighton", which is a stretch to say the least. That area is flat out country. Whitmore Lake is spread out outside of a small part. Hamburg is very spread out. All these people who consider the train have to drive to the station.

From where I live in Green Oak, I can get to Ann Arbor in 20 minutes, in rush hour, avoiding US-23. I don't commute there anymore, but that's the route I took for years if 23 was a problem.

If you want to enact more mass transit in Livingston County, busses are more efficient and cheaper. That's too low brow for the leftist yuppies though. This is what they think constitutes "Smart leadership and Smart Growth." The democrats criticize the county airport (and may have a case there), but push for higher costing WALLY?

County Parks. Dane Morris talks about that, but we have plenty of parks here. Brighton Rec area. Island Lake. Kensington. Pinckney Rec area. Do we need more county spending on that? Money that we don't have right now.

Smart Growth. Kelly Raskausas (My old district) and Barry McBride (my current district) keep mentioning those and other similar buzzwords without detailing them in their speeches (at Living blue). For those who don't know, "Smart Growth" is a new urbanist theory that comes from the coasts, especially the left coast (Portland). It pushes for central city development, compact neighborhoods, mixed use housing (apartments, not detached homes), car unfriendliness, and lots of restrictions on what we can do with our land.

Be aware of what the buzzwords really mean.

Mass Transit Light Rail - Trains to Nowhere

One major topic right now in Livingston County is the local WALLY train, or one I've referred to as the "Train to nowhere." Light rail mass transit is a favorite project of urban planners, "cool city" advocates, Richard Florida gurus, and government contractors. It also costs a lot of money, is heavily subsidized, runs overbudget, and is a waste of our tax dollars. I am strongly opposed to government funded WALLY trains in Livingston County.

I've posted my thoughts on the WALLY "Train to nowhere" on several occasions.
March 2007 - People Mover Pt 2

Howell Approves - June 17 2007

October 07 - 2.3 million subsidy

October 23 07 - Federal money denied to train to nowhere

October 30 07 - County money denied

2009 - Authority seeks 32.4 Million

The "in" thing isn't always the right thing. New Geography had a great comparison piece today on light rails called Mass Transit: The Great Train Robbery

Despite promises that the $8 billion invested in rail lines over the past two decades would lessen L.A.'s traffic congestion and reshape how Angelenos get to work, the sad reality is that there has been no increase in MTA transit ridership since before the rail expansion began in 1985.

Much of the problem, notes Tom Rubin, a former chief financial officers for the MTA's predecessor agency, stems from the shift of funding priorities to trains from the city's more affordable and flexible bus network. Meanwhile, traffic has gotten worse, with delay hours growing from 44 hours a year in 1982 to 70 hours in 2007.

This doesn't shock me. Bus systems have a reputation as being for the so called "lower class" people while rail is a favorite topic for upper middle class white people that the urban planners love.

Sadly, this situation is not unique to Los Angeles. In cities across the country where there have been massive investments in light rail--from the Portland area to Dallas and Charlotte, N.C., and a host of others--the percentage of people taking transit has stagnated or even declined. Nationwide, the percentage of people taking transit to work is now lower than it was in 1980.

Then why are we still pushed for WALLY?

None of this is to argue that we should not invest in transit. It even makes sense if the subsidy required for each transit trip is far higher than for a motorist on the streets or highways. Transit should be considered a public good, particularly for those without access to a car--notably young people, the disabled, the poor and the elderly. Policy should focus on how we invest, at what cost and, ultimately, for whose benefit.

I don't disagree, if it is handled at local or regional levels. One system I thought that isn't all that bad was the CATA system in East Lansing/Lansing. It's good for those who have "one too many" at the bar, and also takes students who live increasingly away from campus over to MSU. It's needed there.

In some regions with large concentrations of employment, downtown major rail systems often attract many riders (although virtually all lose lots of money). The primary example would be the New York City area, which is one of only two regions (the other being Washington, D.C.) with over one-fifth of total employment in the urban core. In the country as a whole barely 10% of employment is in the city; and in many cities that grew most in the 20th century, such as Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles and Phoenix, the central business district's share falls well under 5%.

Some other urban routes--for example between Houston's relatively buoyant downtown and the massive, ever expanding Texas Medical Center--could potentially prove suitable for trains. But most transit investments would be far more financially sustainable if focused on more cost-efficient methods such as rapid bus lanes, which, according to the Government Accountability Office, is roughly one-third the cost of light rail.

Do you go with what looks good or works best in the situation? Dallas, Miami, LA, Phoenix, and Detroit are sprawled out areas. A large number of Detroit area residents commute to Oakland County, not Detroit. All those areas also have millions of people. Keep in mind that this Wally Train proposal covers an area less than 500,000.

Lastly:

Ultimately the choice to invest in new subways and light rail as opposed to buses reflects both a class bias and the agenda of what may best described as the "density lobby." The people who will ride the eight-mile long Second Avenue subway, now under construction for what New York magazine reports may be a total cost of over $17 billion, are largely a very affluent group. The new subway line will also provide opportunity for big developers to build high-density residential towers along the route. In contrast, the bus-riders, as the left-of-center City Limits points out, tend to be working- and middle-class residents from more unfashionable, lower-density districts in the Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island.

Put your noses up in the air, snobs.

Clearly we should not spend our ever more scarce transit resources on a nostalgia crusade to make our cities function much the way they did in the late 1800s. Instead, we need to construct systems reflecting the technology and geographic realities of the 21st century and place our primary focus on helping people, particularly those in need, find efficient, economically sustainable ways to get around.

The first thing the Richard Florida types need to figure out is reality. Outside of a select few areas, people aren't moving to cities. Cities still shed population. New rail projects, lofts, and snobbishness isn't going to bring people in. Jobs not Fluff

Train to nowhere authority seek $32.4 million

The latest in the WALLY train saga is this. They are seeking $32.4 million from federal tax money. This is now a seeking of federal Jurassic Pork from the stimulus of government package. The other day, I wrote about the lack of fiscal responsibility among the feds and the $11 trillion deficit. This is not a good way to add to it. There isn't a good way to add to it, but this is one of the worse ideas. I have no problem with WALLY if it pays for itself or uses all private money. Supporting fiscal responsibility in government begins at home.

From the Argus

The proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line, or WALLY, commuter rail line will soon be in the running for $32.4 million in federal dollars that would put the project on track for completion by 2012.
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If granted, the federal stimulus funding would cover all of the project's capital costs, including stations, signals, crossings and track improvements for the line, which would extend train service from Howell to Ann Arbor.

The money would also fund a "layover facility," where the train cars would be maintained and stored when not in use.

Funds to operate the system would still be needed.

This doesn't even account for operations. Now why is WALLY a bad idea? I wrote about this in depth back in 2007 under the titles People mover part II and Jurassic Pork

The 07 proposed budget, which I think was extremely low stated this.

The tentative budget presented to the county board predicted a capital outlay of $2.9 million and an operating budget of $4.9 million in the first year.

The budget also predicts that the rail service will prevent the need for city of Ann Arbor to build 800 parking spaces, at a cost savings of $35,000 for each spot. Commissioner Jack LaBelle asked Cicchella if those figures were correct, and on hearing they were, calculated that the city would save more than $28 million.

Later, they said that 32.4 million was needed in startup. That's what they are seeking there. My reasoning for that was as follows.

What I said on July 10, 2007:

"4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.""

My opinion from 2007 has not changed one bit. WALLY is banking on a line that does not go to Brighton or Hartland, banking on last I heard a 4 Million operating cost, banking on stops away from downtown Ann Arbor, and banking on people driving their cars to the train. This is feel good impracticability that should not be supported by tax dollars.

No money for Train to Nowhere, Hamburg election developments (EDITED and UPDATED 9/13)

The latest from the Argus shows that there is no money for the train.

The chairman of the Livingston County Board of Commissioners says the county will neither fund a proposed commuter rail line nor be a part of any taxing authority.


Bill Rogers said county officials have told Washtenaw Livingston Line (WALLY) coalition members that the board cannot afford to finance the project, which would connect Howell to Ann Arbor. Officials have previously estimated annual funding from each county ranging from $75,000-$150,000.

“Not that we’re not in favor of mass transit or participating, but I just don’t think it’s economically feasible today,” said Rogers, who anticipates the county still being involved in WALLY talks. “We’re just not going to have the cash.”

Anticipated startup costs for the proposed 27-mile route came in at $32.4 million in a recent feasibility study. Meanwhile, Rogers and other commissioners were busy trimming 1.7 percent from all departments financed by general fund monies and are currently trying to deal with additional anticipated cuts in coming years.

Good move guys.

Also from the Argus,
Joanna Hardesty is running as a write-in for the Hamburg Township Clerks position. In a rather bitter primary election battle, Matt Skiba defeated her in the primary. There's some hard feeling there, and not just because of the election results.

Her comments followed Skiba's accusations that she and her supporters stole or tampered with his campaign signs; attempted to flatten one of his tires in the township municipal campus parking lot; and abused authority in overseeing the Hamburg Family Fun Fest.

Skiba also lobbed barbs at Hardesty for a lawsuit filed by her husband and son against the township Police Department alleging illegal entry to the family's home.

Hardesty said Skiba, who won the primary with less than 20 percent of registered township voters casting ballots, ran a "malicious campaign" that distracted voters from his lack of experience and own personal issues, including a bankruptcy filing.

"Mr. Skiba, you were not held accountable for your false allegations," Hardesty said, eyeing Skiba, who sat in the back row of the board room.

"I will be running a very vigorous campaign in the November election. Write in Hardesty, please," she added.

I can't say I'm surprised here. From a partisan standpoint, it hurts the Republicans in a bad way seeing two of them battle in a general election. I think the winner here is Debby Buckland.

EDIT/UPDATE (After Michael's comment)

I hesitate to take sides with these Hamburg contests, but it's time for me to do so. In this race with the information I had, I would have voted for Hardesty in the primary. Most of that was based on the debate between her and Skiba. I don't know either of them very well and don't have any personal dogs in that fight. I also would have voted for Michael Zelegelski and Bill Hahn. I know and like both Pat Evon and Bobbi Vaughan and I'm glad I did not have to make a decision there. Pat Evon will do a good job, I'm not worried about that. I don't vote based on slates, and I hope those who read this know that about me. I've always gone my own way with endorsements, voting decisions, and issues. I don't get into the grudge matches and personal contests out here. I've been there and done that with a different organization. It's not fun, and I avoid that stuff unless I have one hell of a dog in the fight.

That said, it's time for the Livingston County GOP to get behind Matt Skiba. The primary is over and the voters who showed up clearly made the decision. I trust the voters of Hamburg as they know their township better than I do. They made the decision to pick the candidates who run under my banner in that township.

Back on August 15, I posted this:

The question is whether with the house cleaning in Hamburg, is the infighting over. If the winner was all three incumbents, all winning by 50 votes, then I would have bet on the democrats. That was not the case, and all incumbents are gone. The primary I think made things tougher for the dems. However, do Pat Hohl (unopposed), Matt Skiba, and Pat Evon realize what happened and work to put this behind them? Do the outgoing incumbents provide a smooth transition? If the answer is yes, then I think we hold these seats. If not, then the papers will have a big story about an "upset" in November. Nobody wants to read about their township in the paper every day. Two of the newcomers I think are real strong candidates in Pat Evon and Bill Hahn. I'm not worried about them. One other candidate however concerns me. I won't say who it is in public, but I wasn't that impressed with that individual in the candidate forum. With the current situation, none of these are gimmes, but one of these actually scares me a bit.

We don't have a smooth transition, and commenter Michael's comment here was right on.
"It is time for an intervention, perhaps from a county and state level." I agree. County level. I missed the last meeting, and I know something is in the works. I hope this race is covered and covered well. It is now our most difficult race in the county, and while the McCain/Palin race is important, the Livingston County Republican Party can not forget the first two words in its name either. I had an eye on this race anyway, but now Skiba will need a lot of help. The Bucklands (both Dave and Debby) are experienced campaigners and need to be taken seriously. I have no doubt that Debby will run ahead of Obama (who I expect to get John Kerry percentages around here) to begin with due to the township politics. Skiba also now has an independent challenger as well who will take some GOP votes. John Kerry got 41% and Gore 42%. With a third party, that's enough to sometimes win.

There's an old saying used about rough language and profanity and I think it applies to politics as well. Time, place, and manner. This I do not believe is the proper time, place, and manner for the challenge. I think the best way for a defeated candidate who is unhappy with the campaign is to be a team player for a contested general election, and then run again four years later in the next primary. That is the proper time, place and manner.

No county money for the Train to Nowhere

I'm surprised here, and in a good way, considering where some of the pressure for this is coming from. Good for the commissioners.

The Argus has a good piece on this found here.

The county's 2008 budget,
set to be approved in early November, contains no money for the proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line commuter train.

That's despite being informally asked for a contribution from organizers, including Northfield Township Supervisor Mike Cicchella.

By contrast, Washtenaw County has pledged $300,000 over two years for the project, and the downtown development authorities of Northfield Town-ship and the city of Ann Arbor also will reportedly contribute.
Cicchella wouldn't comment on the Livingston board's refusal to put up any money.

But Bill Rogers, the board chairman, said the county simply needs more information, including more concrete budget and ridership projections, before it can participate.

Even if that data were to come, the county's financial situation is not conducive to any donation, he said.

Rogers cited uncertainty over the 911 dispatch and jail budgets because of potential changes coming from the Legislature in Lansing.

In any case, the information received so far hasn't been enough for the board to jump in.

"Just because we're doing our homework, everybody thinks we're not interested," Rogers said.

I'd be all for this train if it was private funds and paid for itself, but with the subsidies required, route of the train, and overall costs, this will be a pork barrell project.

No Federal Money for Train to Nowhere

$1 million denied from the feds. From the Argus

A rail line project between Washtenaw and Livingston counties won't receive a $1 million federal grant to help fund the system's infrastructure.
The committee planning the system learned on Monday that the federal grant money — earmarked for other projects — won't be applied to the rail project, which would extend between Howell and Ann Arbor.

No tax money should be used for this. See the post below for why I call this the "Train to Nowhere."

Price of Commuter Rail between Howell and Ann Arbor - $2.3 Million subsidy

At least that's the estimate from the Washtenaw Area Transportation Study.

From the Ann Arbor News, they estimate:

884,000 riders a year. (I think that's way high)
Annual Operating Costs - $4.8 million
Annual revenue - $2.5 million

For comparison's sake, they average $27 a day from a car commute from Howell to Ann Arbor. That's about 60 miles a day, round trip. 60 miles is between 1/5 and 1/6 of a tank in my evil assault SUV. I drive a V6 and have about a 20 gallon tank. For me, that's about $7-10 a day if I was still commuting to Howell - about 1/3 of what they mentioned. I haven't figured depreciation costs, but even with that, I'd like to know how they determined $27 unless I'm reading the media report wrong.

Almost 50% of the funds would be subsidized. That's not sometime I'm going to support.

Last March, I wrote my reasons and concerns about this becoming our own version of the Detroit People Mover..

.....I'm not completely against this, but I'm not sold on it for several reasons. Pro's and cons, assuming it expands to Howell. (It's worthless if it doesn't)

Pros
1. Less traffic on US 23 South of Whitmore Lake.
2. More environmental friendly than cars.


Cons
1. Costs. How much to build? How much to operate? How much charged to the consumer.
2. This isn't New York, Chicago, or Toronto. It's not even Detroit. Is there enough people in the area to use this? Washtenaw and Livingston Counties combined number under 500,000 people, and the population is spread out.
3. The Detroit People Mover is far from a success.
4. Parking. People would have to drive to the stations. Brighton is left out unless they drive (on US 23) to Whitmore Lake - 8 miles from Ann Arbor. For that much trouble, it's easier to drive. For me, and the stop is about 2 miles away from me, it's easier to drive.
5. Customers - While many, including myself, commute to Ann Arbor from the county, how many commute to Detroit, Oakland County, Flint, and Lansing? Livingston commuters travel in all directions. Secondly, I'm assuming more Ann Arbor commuters live in Pinckney, Hamburg, Brighton, Hartland, and South Lyon than elsewhere in the county. The proposed route covers only Hamburg. Brighton is left out, and that is a likely customer base.
6. US 23 traffic - If the main stop is in Whitmore Lake, the traffic problem from M-36 Northward is not even slowed.
7. Police presence required. Added costs.


Wildcards
1. Parking. Will there be enough?
2. Service - how quickly do the trains run
3. Expansion - Does the rail expand to Brighton? Hartland? Fenton? South Lyon? I can not see this succeeding at all if Brighton is not covered. That gets some people off US 23. Does this go to Oakland County? I've heard of proposals of a Detroit-Lansing link.
4. Private funding. How much?
5. How much public support is there for this?
....

In July, I went further and called it Jurassic Pork based on the numbers given at the time.

.....9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

Unless this pays for itself, I'm considering it the lite version of the Bridge to Nowhere - Jurassic Pork. I'm not against Mass Transit, and if convienent for me I'll consider using it. I am however against reckless spending of government's tax money on longshot proposals....

Right now, I'm about ready to call it the train to nowhere, in dishonor of Alaska's Bridge to Nowhere supported by 83 senators where it was cheaper to buy everyone a plane rather than build a bridge. Like the Alaska bridge, there isn't enough people densely packed in Livingston or Washtenaw Counties to make this profitable and an adequate solution.

Jurassic Pork - The Ann Arbor to Howell commuter train

I've mentioned many of my thoughts on this mass transit plan here. People mover pt II? My guard was up then and it is more up today as this looks to be a public funded project more than a private fund agenda.

First off, I'm not against mass transit. I'm not even against a commuter train. However, my number one basis of support is that it must pay for itself, else it becomes the Detroit People Mover all over again.

The Argus and Dan Meisler does a good job giving budget figures here.

The state has guaranteed another $1.4 million for a proposed Howell-to-Ann-Arbor commuter train line that supporters say is necessary to combat congestion on U.S. 23.
The new grant from the Michigan Department of Trans-portation was announced Monday at a meeting where supporters were talking about receiving a $150,000 contribution from the Livingston County Board of Commissioners.

Washtenaw County has already committed $150,000, but Living-ston officials raised concerns about the viability of the service and its funding.
Commissioner David Domas asked whether expecting people to shift from cars to trains is realistic.

“Isn’t that a major change in thinking?” he said.

“That’s why we surveyed everybody,” replied Mike Cicchella, supervisor of Washtenaw County’s Northfield Township, one of the plan’s big boosters.

The estimated budget seems way too low to me.

The tentative budget presented to the county board predicted a capital outlay of $2.9 million and an operating budget of $4.9 million in the first year.

The budget also predicts that the rail service will prevent the need for city of Ann Arbor to build 800 parking spaces, at a cost savings of $35,000 for each spot. Commissioner Jack LaBelle asked Cicchella if those figures were correct, and on hearing they were, calculated that the city would save more than $28 million.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

Unless this pays for itself, I'm considering it the lite version of the Bridge to Nowhere - Jurassic Pork. I'm not against Mass Transit, and if convienent for me I'll consider using it. I am however against reckless spending of government's tax money on longshot proposals.

Howell approves rail

From the Ann Arbor News

Howell votes to support regional rail
EPA, U-M commit to pay part of riders' costs
Friday, June 15, 2007
News Staff Reporters
Howell city leaders are on board with plans to create a viable commuter rail line with stops between Howell and Ann Arbor as early as this fall. While the city has yet to add financial backing to the project, officials are expected to make a commitment once a formal request has been made.

City Manager Shea Charles is hesitant to put a monetary worth on the project now, but said "a successful commuter service would be a tremendous opportunity for Howell.

"If you look around the country, areas that have rail, or mass transit, are just thriving,'' he said.

I commented on this awhile back, and I'm still unconvinced. That's doubly so when there is no stop in Downtown Brighton, which has more Ann Arbor commuters than in Howell. Chilson is a good stop, and Hamburg (if there is one) would be a better stop, but I can't see this making a profit without Brighton, considering the population numbers.

I'm not dead set against this, but it must be able to pay for itself.

Ann Arbor - Howell Commuter rail - Detroit People Mover Part II???

Today's Argus has a story about the light rail proposal for this county.

A project to bring commuter rail service between Livingston and Washtenaw counties is gaining steam, with business, local governments and the state getting on board.
A public-private partnership submitted a $1 million grant application to the federal government March 1, and Mike Bagwell, president and CEO of Great Lakes Central Railroad, said that money will determine whether the project can go forward or will stop dead in its tracks.

"It all hinges on the grant," he said. "Unfortunately, there's not much we can do to speed it up."

The grant application includes letters of support from state Sen. Valde Garcia, R-Marion Township; state Reps. Chris Ward, R-Brighton, and Joe Hune, R-Hamburg Township; U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton; and the Brighton and Howell chambers of commerce.
Washtenaw County's Northfield Township board and the Howell City Council also approved resolutions of support.

Mike Cicchella, Northfield Township supervisor, said the University of Michigan had also committed to buy rail passes for 1,200 employees.

"The beauty of this whole thing is we've got public-private, cross-county, local, state and federal people supporting it," he said. "We're pushing as hard as we can ... we're still getting letters of support."

Officials said the goal is twofold — ease traffic congestion while U.S. 23 is under construction, and start up a permanent rail service that could stretch up to Traverse City.

The Michigan Department of Transportation has pledged some funds to upgrade the tracks. The plans right now call for the northern terminal to be at Eight Mile Road and U.S. 23, but Bagwell said the line could be extended to Howell relatively quickly.

I'm not completely against this, but I'm not sold on it for several reasons. Pro's and cons, assuming it expands to Howell. (It's worthless if it doesn't)

Pros
1. Less traffic on US 23 South of Whitmore Lake.
2. More environmental friendly than cars.


Cons
1. Costs. How much to build? How much to operate? How much charged to the consumer.
2. This isn't New York, Chicago, or Toronto. It's not even Detroit. Is there enough people in the area to use this? Washtenaw and Livingston Counties combined number under 500,000 people, and the population is spread out.
3. The Detroit People Mover is far from a success.
4. Parking. People would have to drive to the stations. Brighton is left out unless they drive (on US 23) to Whitmore Lake - 8 miles from Ann Arbor. For that much trouble, it's easier to drive. For me, and the stop is about 2 miles away from me, it's easier to drive.
5. Customers - While many, including myself, commute to Ann Arbor from the county, how many commute to Detroit, Oakland County, Flint, and Lansing? Livingston commuters travel in all directions. Secondly, I'm assuming more Ann Arbor commuters live in Pinckney, Hamburg, Brighton, Hartland, and South Lyon than elsewhere in the county. The proposed route covers only Hamburg. Brighton is left out, and that is a likely customer base.
6. US 23 traffic - If the main stop is in Whitmore Lake, the traffic problem from M-36 Northward is not even slowed.
7. Police presence required. Added costs.


Wildcards
1. Parking. Will there be enough?
2. Service - how quickly do the trains run
3. Expansion - Does the rail expand to Brighton? Hartland? Fenton? South Lyon? I can not see this succeeding at all if Brighton is not covered. That gets some people off US 23. Does this go to Oakland County? I've heard of proposals of a Detroit-Lansing link.
4. Private funding. How much?
5. How much public support is there for this?

Right now, I oppose this. I can be convinced to support this if it is not subsidized, and correctly planned. However, I'm not convinced that this is not the people mover pt II. Based on the population and how spread out it is, it will be a hard sell.