The WALLY Train to Nowhere hangs around like a skunk spray

Lately when I've been at my parents' house and leave at night, I have to keep my eyes open. On several occasions, I see one of the worst types of varmints around. A skunk. Another time, it sprayed a coyote or something outside, and some of that bad air drifted inside. Those damn things walk around like they own the property. They do. There's not much I can do about it except hope it goes away. I'm not going to chase it. Obvious reasons. I can't shoot it. I may miss or worse....hit it in the wrong spot spraying the entire area. I don't want to have to explain that one to ma and pa.

That smell doesn't go away. Neither seems to be this big government boondoggle called the "WALLY" train, also known as the train to nowhere. I've posted about this Train to Nowhere for four years. It's a waste of tax money. It's still being discussed, and there's still talk about this mess. New Geography does a good job debunking them in general and this one here is close to home.

From the Argus

Signs are emerging that the proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line commuter train isn't running full-steam ahead — at least for the time being.

The Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, which oversees planning for WALLY — proposed to stretch from Howell to Ann Arbor — has delayed spending more money on the project until local support is confirmed, Michael Benham, the authority's rail coordinator, said.

Benham on Nov. 17 is expected to update the authority's Board of Directors on public support for the project at the board's regular meeting.

He said past public surveys and input from local officials suggest most Washtenaw and Livingston residents at least support WALLY in concept......

In concept. A lot of things are good "in concept" until something called reality hits. There's more.

To date, only small amounts of money have been spent by the authority in planning the projected $32 million-plus project, Benham said. He said funding from grants and local contributions, including from Howell, is in place for the design work, however.

He said it's possible for the board to vote to eliminate the project, but not likely: WALLY is included in the authority's 30-year transit master plan.

"I think, long-term, there's no question of our support for that project," Benham said.

Support in Livingston County is less certain.

Hamburg Township officials have expressed interest in investing at least a nominal amount of money in the railway effort. The county government and Genoa Township officials have declined funding, however.

Howell officials continue to support the project, City Manager Shea Charles said. The city also contributed dollars to project planning when it was first being evaluated.

32 million. (forehead slap) Right now, Rick Snyder is pushing for increases in car registrations that doubles the costs of tags. He's also pushing for a gas tax increase. That's supposed for "transportation." Is that transportation going to be roads or trains to nowhere? At least County and my old home of Genoa Twp realizes this is a money pit.

Rich Perlberg had an aptly titled editorial. The Little Engine that Won't go Away. I don't usually agree with Rich, but that's a good editorial about the Train to Nowhere.

Now why do I oppose the train to nowhere? The number one reason is that it won't pay for itself.

I wrote this back in 2007. This is response to an estimated 4.9 million a year budget that was given at the time. I expect that number to be MUCH higher.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

Remember that this train does not go to Brighton or Hartland. The railroad tracks there a different line (CSX).

This is still a waste of money. If "light rail" is the right thing to use in this area, someone in the private sector would have created it and used it.

Mass Transit Light Rail - Trains to Nowhere

One major topic right now in Livingston County is the local WALLY train, or one I've referred to as the "Train to nowhere." Light rail mass transit is a favorite project of urban planners, "cool city" advocates, Richard Florida gurus, and government contractors. It also costs a lot of money, is heavily subsidized, runs overbudget, and is a waste of our tax dollars. I am strongly opposed to government funded WALLY trains in Livingston County.

I've posted my thoughts on the WALLY "Train to nowhere" on several occasions.
March 2007 - People Mover Pt 2

Howell Approves - June 17 2007

October 07 - 2.3 million subsidy

October 23 07 - Federal money denied to train to nowhere

October 30 07 - County money denied

2009 - Authority seeks 32.4 Million

The "in" thing isn't always the right thing. New Geography had a great comparison piece today on light rails called Mass Transit: The Great Train Robbery

Despite promises that the $8 billion invested in rail lines over the past two decades would lessen L.A.'s traffic congestion and reshape how Angelenos get to work, the sad reality is that there has been no increase in MTA transit ridership since before the rail expansion began in 1985.

Much of the problem, notes Tom Rubin, a former chief financial officers for the MTA's predecessor agency, stems from the shift of funding priorities to trains from the city's more affordable and flexible bus network. Meanwhile, traffic has gotten worse, with delay hours growing from 44 hours a year in 1982 to 70 hours in 2007.

This doesn't shock me. Bus systems have a reputation as being for the so called "lower class" people while rail is a favorite topic for upper middle class white people that the urban planners love.

Sadly, this situation is not unique to Los Angeles. In cities across the country where there have been massive investments in light rail--from the Portland area to Dallas and Charlotte, N.C., and a host of others--the percentage of people taking transit has stagnated or even declined. Nationwide, the percentage of people taking transit to work is now lower than it was in 1980.

Then why are we still pushed for WALLY?

None of this is to argue that we should not invest in transit. It even makes sense if the subsidy required for each transit trip is far higher than for a motorist on the streets or highways. Transit should be considered a public good, particularly for those without access to a car--notably young people, the disabled, the poor and the elderly. Policy should focus on how we invest, at what cost and, ultimately, for whose benefit.

I don't disagree, if it is handled at local or regional levels. One system I thought that isn't all that bad was the CATA system in East Lansing/Lansing. It's good for those who have "one too many" at the bar, and also takes students who live increasingly away from campus over to MSU. It's needed there.

In some regions with large concentrations of employment, downtown major rail systems often attract many riders (although virtually all lose lots of money). The primary example would be the New York City area, which is one of only two regions (the other being Washington, D.C.) with over one-fifth of total employment in the urban core. In the country as a whole barely 10% of employment is in the city; and in many cities that grew most in the 20th century, such as Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles and Phoenix, the central business district's share falls well under 5%.

Some other urban routes--for example between Houston's relatively buoyant downtown and the massive, ever expanding Texas Medical Center--could potentially prove suitable for trains. But most transit investments would be far more financially sustainable if focused on more cost-efficient methods such as rapid bus lanes, which, according to the Government Accountability Office, is roughly one-third the cost of light rail.

Do you go with what looks good or works best in the situation? Dallas, Miami, LA, Phoenix, and Detroit are sprawled out areas. A large number of Detroit area residents commute to Oakland County, not Detroit. All those areas also have millions of people. Keep in mind that this Wally Train proposal covers an area less than 500,000.

Lastly:

Ultimately the choice to invest in new subways and light rail as opposed to buses reflects both a class bias and the agenda of what may best described as the "density lobby." The people who will ride the eight-mile long Second Avenue subway, now under construction for what New York magazine reports may be a total cost of over $17 billion, are largely a very affluent group. The new subway line will also provide opportunity for big developers to build high-density residential towers along the route. In contrast, the bus-riders, as the left-of-center City Limits points out, tend to be working- and middle-class residents from more unfashionable, lower-density districts in the Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island.

Put your noses up in the air, snobs.

Clearly we should not spend our ever more scarce transit resources on a nostalgia crusade to make our cities function much the way they did in the late 1800s. Instead, we need to construct systems reflecting the technology and geographic realities of the 21st century and place our primary focus on helping people, particularly those in need, find efficient, economically sustainable ways to get around.

The first thing the Richard Florida types need to figure out is reality. Outside of a select few areas, people aren't moving to cities. Cities still shed population. New rail projects, lofts, and snobbishness isn't going to bring people in. Jobs not Fluff

Train to nowhere authority seek $32.4 million

The latest in the WALLY train saga is this. They are seeking $32.4 million from federal tax money. This is now a seeking of federal Jurassic Pork from the stimulus of government package. The other day, I wrote about the lack of fiscal responsibility among the feds and the $11 trillion deficit. This is not a good way to add to it. There isn't a good way to add to it, but this is one of the worse ideas. I have no problem with WALLY if it pays for itself or uses all private money. Supporting fiscal responsibility in government begins at home.

From the Argus

The proposed Washtenaw and Livingston Line, or WALLY, commuter rail line will soon be in the running for $32.4 million in federal dollars that would put the project on track for completion by 2012.
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If granted, the federal stimulus funding would cover all of the project's capital costs, including stations, signals, crossings and track improvements for the line, which would extend train service from Howell to Ann Arbor.

The money would also fund a "layover facility," where the train cars would be maintained and stored when not in use.

Funds to operate the system would still be needed.

This doesn't even account for operations. Now why is WALLY a bad idea? I wrote about this in depth back in 2007 under the titles People mover part II and Jurassic Pork

The 07 proposed budget, which I think was extremely low stated this.

The tentative budget presented to the county board predicted a capital outlay of $2.9 million and an operating budget of $4.9 million in the first year.

The budget also predicts that the rail service will prevent the need for city of Ann Arbor to build 800 parking spaces, at a cost savings of $35,000 for each spot. Commissioner Jack LaBelle asked Cicchella if those figures were correct, and on hearing they were, calculated that the city would save more than $28 million.

Later, they said that 32.4 million was needed in startup. That's what they are seeking there. My reasoning for that was as follows.

What I said on July 10, 2007:

"4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.""

My opinion from 2007 has not changed one bit. WALLY is banking on a line that does not go to Brighton or Hartland, banking on last I heard a 4 Million operating cost, banking on stops away from downtown Ann Arbor, and banking on people driving their cars to the train. This is feel good impracticability that should not be supported by tax dollars.

No Federal Money for Train to Nowhere

$1 million denied from the feds. From the Argus

A rail line project between Washtenaw and Livingston counties won't receive a $1 million federal grant to help fund the system's infrastructure.
The committee planning the system learned on Monday that the federal grant money — earmarked for other projects — won't be applied to the rail project, which would extend between Howell and Ann Arbor.

No tax money should be used for this. See the post below for why I call this the "Train to Nowhere."

Price of Commuter Rail between Howell and Ann Arbor - $2.3 Million subsidy

At least that's the estimate from the Washtenaw Area Transportation Study.

From the Ann Arbor News, they estimate:

884,000 riders a year. (I think that's way high)
Annual Operating Costs - $4.8 million
Annual revenue - $2.5 million

For comparison's sake, they average $27 a day from a car commute from Howell to Ann Arbor. That's about 60 miles a day, round trip. 60 miles is between 1/5 and 1/6 of a tank in my evil assault SUV. I drive a V6 and have about a 20 gallon tank. For me, that's about $7-10 a day if I was still commuting to Howell - about 1/3 of what they mentioned. I haven't figured depreciation costs, but even with that, I'd like to know how they determined $27 unless I'm reading the media report wrong.

Almost 50% of the funds would be subsidized. That's not sometime I'm going to support.

Last March, I wrote my reasons and concerns about this becoming our own version of the Detroit People Mover..

.....I'm not completely against this, but I'm not sold on it for several reasons. Pro's and cons, assuming it expands to Howell. (It's worthless if it doesn't)

Pros
1. Less traffic on US 23 South of Whitmore Lake.
2. More environmental friendly than cars.


Cons
1. Costs. How much to build? How much to operate? How much charged to the consumer.
2. This isn't New York, Chicago, or Toronto. It's not even Detroit. Is there enough people in the area to use this? Washtenaw and Livingston Counties combined number under 500,000 people, and the population is spread out.
3. The Detroit People Mover is far from a success.
4. Parking. People would have to drive to the stations. Brighton is left out unless they drive (on US 23) to Whitmore Lake - 8 miles from Ann Arbor. For that much trouble, it's easier to drive. For me, and the stop is about 2 miles away from me, it's easier to drive.
5. Customers - While many, including myself, commute to Ann Arbor from the county, how many commute to Detroit, Oakland County, Flint, and Lansing? Livingston commuters travel in all directions. Secondly, I'm assuming more Ann Arbor commuters live in Pinckney, Hamburg, Brighton, Hartland, and South Lyon than elsewhere in the county. The proposed route covers only Hamburg. Brighton is left out, and that is a likely customer base.
6. US 23 traffic - If the main stop is in Whitmore Lake, the traffic problem from M-36 Northward is not even slowed.
7. Police presence required. Added costs.


Wildcards
1. Parking. Will there be enough?
2. Service - how quickly do the trains run
3. Expansion - Does the rail expand to Brighton? Hartland? Fenton? South Lyon? I can not see this succeeding at all if Brighton is not covered. That gets some people off US 23. Does this go to Oakland County? I've heard of proposals of a Detroit-Lansing link.
4. Private funding. How much?
5. How much public support is there for this?
....

In July, I went further and called it Jurassic Pork based on the numbers given at the time.

.....9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

Unless this pays for itself, I'm considering it the lite version of the Bridge to Nowhere - Jurassic Pork. I'm not against Mass Transit, and if convienent for me I'll consider using it. I am however against reckless spending of government's tax money on longshot proposals....

Right now, I'm about ready to call it the train to nowhere, in dishonor of Alaska's Bridge to Nowhere supported by 83 senators where it was cheaper to buy everyone a plane rather than build a bridge. Like the Alaska bridge, there isn't enough people densely packed in Livingston or Washtenaw Counties to make this profitable and an adequate solution.

Updates, news and comment

It's a day off for me right now, so I will be catching up on some posts I planned out, but didn't have time to cover. From the Old News section:

First, I got over to melonfest yesterday up in Howell. I missed the parade however, and from what I've heard 2nd hand, the dems took a page out of the "Communications Guru" playbook. They were marching down Grand River in the non political parade with picket signs telling us how bad the other guy sucks (Rogers votes against Children, etc etc) - nothing about the several candidates on their side of the isle. If that is true (qualified statement), that's a good way to piss off the apolitical people and turn away potential converts. As the Motorhead song goes, "No class." As a republican, all I have to say is "Thanks, guys for your help!"

Second, John Dingell awhile back introduced a "Put up or Shut up" bill on this global warming hysteria going on out there. I like that the smug spoiled rich kid Robert Kennedy Junior and his crowd getting a target on his back for once. Dingell's bill taxes gasoline 50 cents, takes off mortgage deductions on 3,000 foot homes. I don't like the bill, nor agree with it, it's a dose of reality for those who think global warming is this dire threat, but just want to target American cars.

Third, Dan Meisler of the Argus had a good editorial about the light rail project between Ann Arbor and Howell. I've posted several items on that previously giving my opposition to subsidizing a project I do not believe will work due to the routes and low population of the area.

Howell approves rail

From the Ann Arbor News

Howell votes to support regional rail
EPA, U-M commit to pay part of riders' costs
Friday, June 15, 2007
News Staff Reporters
Howell city leaders are on board with plans to create a viable commuter rail line with stops between Howell and Ann Arbor as early as this fall. While the city has yet to add financial backing to the project, officials are expected to make a commitment once a formal request has been made.

City Manager Shea Charles is hesitant to put a monetary worth on the project now, but said "a successful commuter service would be a tremendous opportunity for Howell.

"If you look around the country, areas that have rail, or mass transit, are just thriving,'' he said.

I commented on this awhile back, and I'm still unconvinced. That's doubly so when there is no stop in Downtown Brighton, which has more Ann Arbor commuters than in Howell. Chilson is a good stop, and Hamburg (if there is one) would be a better stop, but I can't see this making a profit without Brighton, considering the population numbers.

I'm not dead set against this, but it must be able to pay for itself.

Ann Arbor - Howell Commuter rail - Detroit People Mover Part II???

Today's Argus has a story about the light rail proposal for this county.

A project to bring commuter rail service between Livingston and Washtenaw counties is gaining steam, with business, local governments and the state getting on board.
A public-private partnership submitted a $1 million grant application to the federal government March 1, and Mike Bagwell, president and CEO of Great Lakes Central Railroad, said that money will determine whether the project can go forward or will stop dead in its tracks.

"It all hinges on the grant," he said. "Unfortunately, there's not much we can do to speed it up."

The grant application includes letters of support from state Sen. Valde Garcia, R-Marion Township; state Reps. Chris Ward, R-Brighton, and Joe Hune, R-Hamburg Township; U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton; and the Brighton and Howell chambers of commerce.
Washtenaw County's Northfield Township board and the Howell City Council also approved resolutions of support.

Mike Cicchella, Northfield Township supervisor, said the University of Michigan had also committed to buy rail passes for 1,200 employees.

"The beauty of this whole thing is we've got public-private, cross-county, local, state and federal people supporting it," he said. "We're pushing as hard as we can ... we're still getting letters of support."

Officials said the goal is twofold — ease traffic congestion while U.S. 23 is under construction, and start up a permanent rail service that could stretch up to Traverse City.

The Michigan Department of Transportation has pledged some funds to upgrade the tracks. The plans right now call for the northern terminal to be at Eight Mile Road and U.S. 23, but Bagwell said the line could be extended to Howell relatively quickly.

I'm not completely against this, but I'm not sold on it for several reasons. Pro's and cons, assuming it expands to Howell. (It's worthless if it doesn't)

Pros
1. Less traffic on US 23 South of Whitmore Lake.
2. More environmental friendly than cars.


Cons
1. Costs. How much to build? How much to operate? How much charged to the consumer.
2. This isn't New York, Chicago, or Toronto. It's not even Detroit. Is there enough people in the area to use this? Washtenaw and Livingston Counties combined number under 500,000 people, and the population is spread out.
3. The Detroit People Mover is far from a success.
4. Parking. People would have to drive to the stations. Brighton is left out unless they drive (on US 23) to Whitmore Lake - 8 miles from Ann Arbor. For that much trouble, it's easier to drive. For me, and the stop is about 2 miles away from me, it's easier to drive.
5. Customers - While many, including myself, commute to Ann Arbor from the county, how many commute to Detroit, Oakland County, Flint, and Lansing? Livingston commuters travel in all directions. Secondly, I'm assuming more Ann Arbor commuters live in Pinckney, Hamburg, Brighton, Hartland, and South Lyon than elsewhere in the county. The proposed route covers only Hamburg. Brighton is left out, and that is a likely customer base.
6. US 23 traffic - If the main stop is in Whitmore Lake, the traffic problem from M-36 Northward is not even slowed.
7. Police presence required. Added costs.


Wildcards
1. Parking. Will there be enough?
2. Service - how quickly do the trains run
3. Expansion - Does the rail expand to Brighton? Hartland? Fenton? South Lyon? I can not see this succeeding at all if Brighton is not covered. That gets some people off US 23. Does this go to Oakland County? I've heard of proposals of a Detroit-Lansing link.
4. Private funding. How much?
5. How much public support is there for this?

Right now, I oppose this. I can be convinced to support this if it is not subsidized, and correctly planned. However, I'm not convinced that this is not the people mover pt II. Based on the population and how spread out it is, it will be a hard sell.