Congressional District 1 - Updated 2014 (MI-01)

2014 - Update (4-24-14)
The filing deadline is in. Benishek has a primary against Alan Arcand, a yooper, and the winner will face democrat Jerry Cannon. Dems are high on Cannon, but I don't see this flipping to a troll who lives below the bridge. This is a "yooper" district even with more population in the lower peninsula because the UP is where there are more independents who will vote based on geography.

Gary McDowell was a good candidate who could have won the district in the right year. Some candidates can put this in major play. Jerry Cannon doesn't scare me.

MI-01 Update - 2014

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here

Incumbent - Dr. Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.

Challengers – Alan Arcand (R-Iron River), Jerry Cannon (D-Kalkaska)

2012:

Dan Benishek – 167060 – 48.14%

Gary McDowell – 165719 – 47.75%

1341 vote difference

Romney – 189907 votes – 53.50%

Obama – 160582 votes – 45.24%

29325 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 179009 votes – 48.45%

Obama – 183693 votes – 49.72%

-4684 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 200045 votes – 54.73%

Kerry – 161237 votes – 44.11%

38808 vote difference

The Secretary of State released their precinct results out for all state level elections in that area. With that out, I can compare 2012 to 2008 to 2004 presidential elections and comment on trends seen here. This is the first of a look at all of the districts. We'll start with congressional districts, and go all the way down to state rep and then the counties. Eventually.

For Romney, MI-01 stopped a lot of the McCain bleeding. He didn’t do as well as Bush here in 04 in most areas but came fairly close in percentage. Bush 04 did the best here of non wave year candidates in a long time. There’s been a lot of population shifts here in different areas.  Some areas are noticeably moving to the right and others to the left with migration, retirement, fewer yellow dogs, and migration (2^nd mention). One thing I noticed in much of these areas are less overall votes. Romney in some areas had less votes than McCain, but had a better percentage than he did, even sometimes rivaling Bush 04 which overperformed this district. 

Romney possibly saved Benishek, however that map is so much different than the presidential maps that I really can’t compare them. http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/2891/mi01-analysis-2012">My preliminary map covers that well.

 McDowell overperformed Obama and Benishek underperformed Romney. My comment on Benishek remains this. I don't think Benishek's out of the woods, but I think the fact that he survived against a McDowell (always was stronger than given credit in 2010) in a non-2010 setting and a target on his back was a show of strength. If Benishek can do it again, he should be okay outside of a wave year. What he needs to work on is what Stupak's top strength is. Constituent issues. That takes time, and Benishek should do better there with experience.

Color Code:

Since I’m colorblind and have trouble differencing shades, I’ll use this.

Dwins

70%+Dem – Black

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – White

Here’s the 2012 presidential map by township/city.

I had to guess a couple of township borders, but most are accurate. (That small part cut off is Mason County - the portion of which Romney won with about 51%) What I like with a regional map that the counties don’t necessarily show is when areas nearby on borders vote similar. Some of the “R” strongholds are deceptive until you see the map. That 60%+ patch of Romney votes in the Eastern UP overlaps part of four counties. Luce, Mackinac, Chippewa, and Schoolcraft. Schoolcraft is historically a democrat area, due to Manistique. One thing to remember is that even in stronghold or historically stronghhold counties, the other party may have a small but significant base. Berrien County and Kent County are two of the biggest example of this in Michigan. Frankenmuth area is another example on a smaller scale.

Even with that, this applies more with top of the ticket. Stupak won ALL of this area. McDowell’s from one of those big red spots in southern Chippewa County. Rudyard. He won it. Romney got 63% there. Bush 62%. I don’t believe in PVI at all. Top of the ticket is important, but so Is historical downticket strength. Alger County was overall 50% for Romney, but is usually blue. Obama got his numbers in Munising, but did not do well at all outside of there.

Marquette County shows how blue that entire county is. It’s not just blue due to Northern Michigan University, but due to the union tradition as well. Ishpeming is as dem as Marquette, at least by percentage. Richmond Township is the king here by percentage. It went 69.52% Kerry, 71.88% Obama08 and even higher at 72.48% Obama12 even as Marquette County went from 59.35% Obama in 08 down to 56.26% (Kerry got 53.60% - difference was largely 900 extra votes for O in Marquette and Ishpeming) Richmond Twp is consistent. The dem raw votes there ranged from 316 to 322 in each election. The R vote dropped from 135 to 107. They probably moved out. I’m not sure how it’s more democrat than Marquette, although it’s the home of the Empire mine.

Gogebic County in the Western UP is a democrat stronghold, but not all of it is. That eastern portion is more tied to Ontonagon County (leans GOP, sometimes goes Dem) and Iron County (was dem stronghold, now swing). Ironwood and Wakefield area dominate Gogebic county. That’s the most yellow dog spot in the UP outside of Marquette and is an old (former) mining area. Superior Wisconsin and Duluth are probably an influence there as well.

Houghton County is treading a little more dem. Bush did well there twice, but Michigan Tech is becoming a tougher as that university is following the others, although to a lesser extent.  Houghton’s about 5% more dem than it was in 04 and that’s put the county now in the lean R instead of safe R category (despite McCain winning it). The suburbs and rural areas are still with us there.

Delta and Menominee Counties are historically democrat, but now swing counties.  Dickinson has been more R than the others for awhile now. I can’t call any non Eastern UP county a base county right now due to history, but if any are about to become one, Dickinson County will. (Houghton was). Even Iron Mountain and Kingsford are going more R. The City of Menominee is still dem (not sure about its neighbor Marinette Wisconsin), as is Escanaba (less so). The rest of those areas are capable of wild swings, although the Stephenson area (Menominee) and Bark River (Delta) are (at least top of ticket) strongholds.

The Eastern UP is historically more Republican, but the dems have some strength in the Chippewa communities. They aren’t as dem as South Dakota’s Sioux, but they aren’t Oklahoma or Eastern Tennessee Cherokee either. Bay Mills (Chippewa majority) is solidly 54-62% dem. Sault Ste Marie swings but has some dem strength in Lake Superior State U. Obama won it twice, the second time with 50%. St Ignace also swings. The township is more dem than the city (rare) due to the Chippewa population. It’s slightly dem leaning, but winnable for R’s. The famous Mackinac Island swings as well.  

The Northern Lower Peninsula has a lot of solid R 55-60% territory. Emmet, Otsego, and Antrim are three county strongholds for the R’s, along with the suburbs and rural areas outside of Traverse City. The dems have some strength in the Alpena/Presque Isle area (labor is stronger in NE Michigan), Frankfort area, Traverse City itself (outvoted by townships), and Manistee (more labor than most of NW Michigan). Parts of Leelanau County are treading D, as is Traverse City which attracts a lot of Ann Arbor types. A lot of the resort areas are competitive, but the townships around them often are not as competitive outside of Benzie County and a few areas in Leelanau and Mason Counties. Townships around the more labor influenced areas are more competitive (Manistee, Alpena, Presque Isle). Manistee, Alpena, Benzie, and Presque Isle Counties are swing areas, although Manistee is more D than R except for 04. Leelanau flipped in 08, but came back in 2012. I’ll call that lean R due to history, but keep an eye on it. Alpena County leaned dem, but is starting to go our way. The city itself is now in the low 50% for dems consistently. Presque Isle is usually 1-2% to the right of Alpena. 

Both parties have a decent bench here. 2010 took out a lot of the dem bench, but don't write them off for dead. Marquette survived the 2010 wave without a problem. The 110th State Rep seat flipped back (HD-110) thanks to Gogebic County. There isn't much in the lower penninsula, but this is a Yooper based district to this day (and geography still matters here - a dem from Traverse City won't win here).  Benishek will likely have another tough opponent in 2014. We'll see how close that race will be.  

Blogspot wouldn't let me post both 08 and 2012 here, so I'll have to just stick with the 2012 results here. 

MI-01
	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Alcona County				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alcona Twp	455	254	716	201	63.55%	35.47%
Caledonia twp	384	287	676	97	56.80%	42.46%
Curtis Twp	321	317	644	4	49.84%	49.22%
Greenbush Twp	432	318	759	114	56.92%	41.90%
Gustin Twp	210	123	334	87	62.87%	36.83%
Harrisville	136	119	255	17	53.33%	46.67%
Harrisville Twp	472	290	767	182	61.54%	37.81%
Hawes Twp	341	230	577	111	59.10%	39.86%
Haynes Twp	265	175	449	90	59.02%	38.98%
Mikado Twp	295	166	468	129	63.03%	35.47%
Millen Twp	114	113	228	1	50.00%	49.56%
Mitchell Twp	146	80	231	66	63.20%	34.63%
Total	3571	2472	6104	1099	58.50%	40.50%
Alger County
Au train Twp	352	275	633	77	55.61%	43.44%
Burt Twp	202	132	340	70	59.41%	38.82%
Grand Island Twp	10	16	26	-6	38.46%	61.54%
Limestone Twp	130	104	236	26	55.08%	44.07%
Mathias Twp	102	148	253	-46	40.32%	58.50%
Munising	454	591	1071	-137	42.39%	55.18%
Munising Twp	623	479	1117	144	55.77%	42.88%
Onota Twp	136	128	273	8	49.82%	46.89%
Rock River Twp	321	339	669	-18	47.98%	50.67%
Total	2330	2212	4618	118	50.45%	47.90%
Alpena County				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alpena	2185	2444	4704	-259	46.45%	51.96%
Alpena Twp	2359	2269	4676	90	50.45%	48.52%
Green Twp	353	241	601	112	58.74%	40.10%
Long Rapids Twp	282	205	489	77	57.67%	41.92%
Maple Ridge Twp	407	337	753	70	54.05%	44.75%
Ossineke Twp	522	273	799	249	65.33%	34.17%
Sanborn Twp	540	409	958	131	56.37%	42.69%
Wellington Twp	68	53	121	15	56.20%	43.80%
Wilson Twp	582	318	913	264	63.75%	34.83%
Total	7298	6549	14014	749	52.08%	46.73%
Antrim County
Banks Twp	657	295	970	362	67.73%	30.41%
Central Lake Twp	750	476	1241	274	60.44%	38.36%
Chestonia Twp	132	93	229	39	57.64%	40.61%
Custer Twp	427	233	664	194	64.31%	35.09%
Echo Twp	275	193	472	82	58.26%	40.89%
Elk Rapids Twp	1032	723	1772	309	58.24%	40.80%
Forest Home Twp	751	475	1238	276	60.66%	38.37%
Helena Twp	379	282	670	97	56.57%	42.09%
Jordan Twp	232	218	455	14	50.99%	47.91%
Kearney Twp	621	360	991	261	62.66%	36.33%
Mancelona Twp	836	637	1505	199	55.55%	42.33%
Milton Twp	908	558	1481	350	61.31%	37.68%
Star Twp	269	156	437	113	61.56%	35.70%
Torch Lake Twp	538	345	890	193	60.45%	38.76%
Warner Twp	110	63	180	47	61.11%	35.00%
Total	7917	5107	13195	2810	60.00%	38.70%
Baraga County				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Arvon Twp	185	95	288	90	64.24%	32.99%
Baraga Twp	593	555	1162	38	51.03%	47.76%
Covington Twp	139	113	256	26	54.30%	44.14%
L'Anse Twp	886	718	1625	168	54.52%	44.18%
Spurr Twp	63	93	159	-30	39.62%	58.49%
Total	1866	1574	3490	292	53.47%	45.10%
Benzie County
Almira Twp	1153	850	2024	303	56.97%	42.00%
Benzonia Twp	785	762	1564	23	50.19%	48.72%
Blaine Twp	198	145	345	53	57.39%	42.03%
Colfax Twp	155	150	308	5	50.32%	48.70%
Crystal Lake Twp	331	352	685	-21	48.32%	51.39%
Frankfort	302	390	697	-88	43.33%	55.95%
Gilmore Twp	177	289	472	-112	37.50%	61.23%
Homestead Twp	547	558	1121	-11	48.80%	49.78%
Inland Twp	595	445	1060	150	56.13%	41.98%
Joyfield Twp	227	221	451	6	50.33%	49.00%
Lake Twp	370	276	650	94	56.92%	42.46%
Platte Twp	96	123	222	-27	43.24%	55.41%
Weldon Twp	139	124	263	15	52.85%	47.15%
				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	5075	4685	9862	390	51.46%	47.51%
Charlevoix County
Bay Twp	448	322	777	126	57.66%	41.44%
Boyne City	915	821	1759	94	52.02%	46.67%
Boyne Valley Twp	331	308	643	23	51.48%	47.90%
Chandler Twp	75	62	140	13	53.57%	44.29%
Charlevoix	793	688	1492	105	53.15%	46.11%
Charlevoix Twp	583	400	989	183	58.95%	40.44%
East Jordan	450	403	862	47	52.20%	46.75%
Evangeline Twp	285	164	450	121	63.33%	36.44%
Eveline Twp	612	366	985	246	62.13%	37.16%
Hayes Twp	664	493	1166	171	56.95%	42.28%
Hudson Twp	180	141	328	39	54.88%	42.99%
Marion Twp	577	325	912	252	63.27%	35.64%
Melrose Twp	383	293	692	90	55.35%	42.34%
Norwood Twp	303	173	481	130	62.99%	35.97%
Peaine Twp	152	121	276	31	55.07%	43.84%
South Arm Twp	615	316	944	299	65.15%	33.47%
St James Twp	116	130	248	-14	46.77%	52.42%
Wilson Twp	518	414	946	104	54.76%	43.76%
Total	8000	5940	14090	2060	56.78%	42.16%
Cheboygan County
Aloha Twp	309	246	561	63	55.08%	43.85%
Beaugrand Twp	351	287	645	64	54.42%	44.50%
Benton Twp	963	749	1730	214	55.66%	43.29%
Burt Twp	341	144	489	197	69.73%	29.45%
Cheboygan	908	874	1816	34	50.00%	48.13%
Ellis Twp	162	114	278	48	58.27%	41.01%
Forest Twp	213	257	478	-44	44.56%	53.77%
Grant Twp	259	262	524	-3	49.43%	50.00%
Hebron Twp	72	83	158	-11	45.57%	52.53%
Iverness Twp	644	532	1194	112	53.94%	44.56%
Koehler Twp	295	217	523	78	56.41%	41.49%
Mackinaw Twp	184	157	347	27	53.03%	45.24%
Mentor Twp	260	185	451	75	57.65%	41.02%
Mullett Twp	444	291	747	153	59.44%	38.96%
Munro Twp	198	207	408	-9	48.53%	50.74%
Nunda Twp	252	219	481	33	52.39%	45.53%
Tuscarora Twp	1052	696	1772	356	59.37%	39.28%
Walker Twp	60	58	124	2	48.39%	46.77%
Waverly Twp	116	106	224	10	51.79%	47.32%
Wilmot Twp	203	147	361	56	56.23%	40.72%
Total	7286	5831	13311	1455	54.74%	43.81%
Chippewa County
Bay Mills Twp	251	389	651	-138	38.56%	59.75%
Bruce Twp	629	455	1095	174	57.44%	41.55%
Chippewa Twp	70	47	117	23	59.83%	40.17%
Dafter Twp	361	239	609	122	59.28%	39.24%
Detour Twp	270	217	494	53	54.66%	43.93%
Drummond Twp	439	294	736	145	59.65%	39.95%
Hulbert Twp	56	41	98	15	57.14%	41.84%
Kinross Twp	700	578	1296	122	54.01%	44.60%
Pickford Twp	573	285	867	288	66.09%	32.87%
Raber Twp	176	189	373	-13	47.18%	50.67%
Rudyard Twp	421	241	667	180	63.12%	36.13%
Sault Ste Marie	2504	2652	5221	-148	47.96%	50.79%
Soo Twp	870	656	1544	214	56.35%	42.49%
Sugar Island Twp	189	239	435	-50	43.45%	54.94%
Superior twp	379	325	709	54	53.46%	45.84%
Trout Lake Twp	127	87	217	40	58.53%	40.09%
Whitefish Twp	263	166	435	97	60.46%	38.16%
Total	8278	7100	15564	1178	53.19%	45.62%
Crawford County
Beaver Creek Twp	452	397	854	55	52.93%	46.49%
Frederic Twp	344	285	631	59	54.52%	45.17%
Grayling	339	291	641	48	52.89%	45.40%
Grayling Twp	1690	1298	3028	392	55.81%	42.87%
Lovells Twp	202	160	366	42	55.19%	43.72%
Maple Forest Twp	182	124	308	58	59.09%	40.26%
South Branch Twp	535	439	986	96	54.26%	44.52%
Total	3744	2994	6814	750	54.95%	43.94%
Delta County
Baldwin Twp	224	171	401	53	55.86%	42.64%
Bark River Twp	516	264	788	252	65.48%	33.50%
Bay de Noc Twp	127	110	238	17	53.36%	46.22%
Brampton Twp	294	264	561	30	52.41%	47.06%
Cornell Twp	157	120	280	37	56.07%	42.86%
Ensign Twp	232	221	457	11	50.77%	48.36%
Escanaba	2561	2584	5205	-23	49.20%	49.64%
Escanaba Twp	1081	785	1882	296	57.44%	41.71%
Fairbanks Twp	88	79	167	9	52.69%	47.31%
Ford River Twp	632	481	1119	151	56.48%	42.98%
Garden Twp	240	234	479	6	50.10%	48.85%
Gladstone	1219	1168	2408	51	50.62%	48.50%
Maple Ridge Twp	212	193	410	19	51.71%	47.07%
Masonville Twp	500	399	911	101	54.88%	43.80%
Nahma Twp	131	121	254	10	51.57%	47.64%
Wells Twp	1320	1139	2484	181	53.14%	45.85%
Total	9534	8333	18044	1201	52.84%	46.18%
Dickinson County
Breen Twp	166	67	235	99	70.64%	28.51%
Breitung Twp	2088	1156	3283	932	63.60%	35.21%
Felch Twp	263	109	373	154	70.51%	29.22%
Iron Mountain	1967	1355	3378	612	58.23%	40.11%
Kingsford	1405	918	2350	487	59.79%	39.06%
Norway	666	621	1308	45	50.92%	47.48%
Norway Twp	440	318	767	122	57.37%	41.46%
Sagola Twp	396	214	618	182	64.08%	34.63%
Waucedah Twp	274	174	453	100	60.49%	38.41%
West Branch  Twp	23	20	45	3	51.11%	44.44%
Total	7688	4952	12810	2736	60.02%	38.66%
Emmet County
Bear Creek Twp	1886	1402	3323	484	56.76%	42.19%
Bliss Twp	177	141	326	36	54.29%	43.25%
Carp Lake Twp	221	175	401	46	55.11%	43.64%
Center Twp	143	126	277	17	51.62%	45.49%
Cross Village Twp	95	70	168	25	56.55%	41.67%
Friendship Twp	323	179	510	144	63.33%	35.10%
Harbor Springs	419	333	757	86	55.35%	43.99%
Little Traverse Twp	865	567	1442	298	59.99%	39.32%
Littlefield twp	757	494	1269	263	59.65%	38.93%
Maple River Twp	356	247	608	109	58.55%	40.63%
McKinley Twp	267	193	468	74	57.05%	41.24%
Petoskey	1474	1437	2941	37	50.12%	48.86%
Pleasant View Twp	355	159	514	196	69.07%	30.93%
Readmond Twp	191	160	361	31	52.91%	44.32%
Resort Twp	1019	599	1637	420	62.25%	36.59%
Springvale Twp	724	378	1114	346	64.99%	33.93%
Wawatam Twp	211	167	380	44	55.53%	43.95%
West Traverse Twp	770	398	1175	372	65.53%	33.87%
Total	10253	7225	17671	3028	58.02%	40.89%
Gogebic County
Bessemer	421	547	976	-126	43.14%	56.05%
Bessemer Twp	292	303	603	-11	48.42%	50.25%
Erwin Twp	84	100	186	-16	45.16%	53.76%
Ironwood	960	1390	2376	-430	40.40%	58.50%
Ironwood Twp	636	656	1302	-20	48.85%	50.38%
Marenisco Twp	223	135	362	88	61.60%	37.29%
Wakefield	331	464	806	-133	41.07%	57.57%
Wakefield Twp	68	91	160	-23	42.50%	56.88%
Watersmeet Twp	429	372	805	57	53.29%	46.21%
Total	3444	4058	7576	-614	45.46%	53.56%
Grand Traverse County
Acme Twp	1641	1042	2704	599	60.69%	38.54%
Blair Twp	2072	1412	3550	660	58.37%	39.77%
East Bay Twp	3610	2602	6267	1008	57.60%	41.52%
Fife Lake Twp	461	288	760	173	60.66%	37.89%
Garfield Twp	4849	3806	8761	1043	55.35%	43.44%
Grant Twp	342	225	577	117	59.27%	38.99%
Green Lake Twp	1713	1405	3162	308	54.17%	44.43%
Long Lake Twp	3126	2060	5241	1066	59.65%	39.31%
Mayfield Twp	504	265	778	239	64.78%	34.06%
Paradise Twp	1294	794	2123	500	60.95%	37.40%
Peninsula Twp	2410	1571	4008	839	60.13%	39.20%
Traverse City	3379	4792	8311	-1413	40.66%	57.66%
Union Twp	122	99	221	23	55.20%	44.80%
Whitewater Twp	1011	514	1536	497	65.82%	33.46%
Total	26534	20875	47999	5659	55.28%	43.49%
Houghton County				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Adams Twp	498	546	1064	-48	46.80%	51.32%
Calumet Twp	1566	1205	2815	361	55.63%	42.81%
Chassell Twp	665	320	998	345	66.63%	32.06%
Duncan Twp	77	51	130	26	59.23%	39.23%
Elm River Twp	92	55	148	37	62.16%	37.16%
Franklin Twp	354	294	662	60	53.47%	44.41%
Hancock	913	971	1913	-58	47.73%	50.76%
Hancock Twp	188	86	276	102	68.12%	31.16%
Houghton	705	1024	1780	-319	39.61%	57.53%
Laird Twp	152	123	280	29	54.29%	43.93%
Osceola Twp	485	362	868	123	55.88%	41.71%
Portage Twp	854	661	1555	193	54.92%	42.51%
Quincy Twp	88	56	145	32	60.69%	38.62%
Schoolcraft Twp	477	371	859	106	55.53%	43.19%
Stanton Twp	459	272	743	187	61.78%	36.61%
Torch Lake Twp	623	404	1046	219	59.56%	38.62%
Total	8196	6801	15282	1395	53.63%	44.50%
Iron County
Bates Twp	331	196	530	135	62.45%	36.98%
Caspian	161	220	385	-59	41.82%	57.14%
Crystal Falls	363	418	796	-55	45.60%	52.51%
Crystal Falls Twp	440	396	849	44	51.83%	46.64%
Gaastra	88	82	173	6	50.87%	47.40%
Hematite Twp	78	80	164	-2	47.56%	48.78%
Iron River	664	560	1234	104	53.81%	45.38%
Iron River Twp	389	200	595	189	65.38%	33.61%
Mansfield Twp	89	59	154	30	57.79%	38.31%
Mastodon Twp	204	191	402	13	50.75%	47.51%
Stambaugh Twp	417	285	706	132	59.07%	40.37%
Total	3224	2687	5988	537	53.84%	44.87%
Kalkaska County
Bear Lake Twp	226	186	418	40	54.07%	44.50%
Blue Lake Twp	176	115	295	61	59.66%	38.98%
Boardman Twp	394	257	656	137	60.06%	39.18%
Clearwater Twp	762	542	1329	220	57.34%	40.78%
Cold Springs Twp	422	300	737	122	57.26%	40.71%
Excelsior Twp	253	192	449	61	56.35%	42.76%
Garfield Twp	250	159	414	91	60.39%	38.41%
Kalkaska Twp	1331	843	2207	488	60.31%	38.20%
Oliver Twp	86	51	137	35	62.77%	37.23%
Orange Twp	362	179	546	183	66.30%	32.78%
Rapid River Twp	294	183	487	111	60.37%	37.58%
Springfield Twp	345	265	624	80	55.29%	42.47%
Total	4901	3272	8299	1629	59.06%	39.43%
Keewenaw County
Allouez Twp	462	335	821	127	56.27%	40.80%
Eagle Harbor Twp	137	106	251	31	54.58%	42.23%
Grant Twp	100	88	189	12	52.91%	46.56%
Houghton Twp	45	28	75	17	60.00%	37.33%
Sherman Twp	30	25	56	5	53.57%	44.64%
Total	774	582	1392	192	55.60%	41.81%
Leelanau County
Bingham Twp	979	639	1631	340	60.02%	39.18%
Centerville Twp	363	360	727	3	49.93%	49.52%
Cleveland Twp	309	378	690	-69	44.78%	54.78%
Elmwood Twp	1624	1288	2930	336	55.43%	43.96%
Empire Twp	381	491	881	-110	43.25%	55.73%
Glen Arbor Twp	391	306	701	85	55.78%	43.65%
Kasson Twp	427	443	877	-16	48.69%	50.51%
Leelanau Twp	746	817	1576	-71	47.34%	51.84%
Leland Twp	780	592	1381	188	56.48%	42.87%
Solon Twp	564	391	966	173	58.39%	40.48%
Suttons Bay Twp	849	815	1678	34	50.60%	48.57%
Traverse City	70	56	126	14	55.56%	44.44%
Total	7483	6576	14164	907	52.83%	46.43%
Luce County
Columbus Twp	67	39	107	28	62.62%	36.45%
Lakefield Twp	455	201	662	254	68.73%	30.36%
McMillan Twp	642	466	1118	176	57.42%	41.68%
Pentland Twp	416	285	709	131	58.67%	40.20%
Total	1580	991	2596	589	60.86%	38.17%
Mackinac County
Bois Blanc Twp	45	50	95	-5	47.37%	52.63%
Brevort Twp	146	143	291	3	50.17%	49.14%
Clark Twp	713	506	1230	207	57.97%	41.14%
Garfield Twp	485	185	673	300	72.07%	27.49%
Hendricks Twp	54	20	74	34	72.97%	27.03%
Hudson Twp	71	47	118	24	60.17%	39.83%
Mackinac Island	216	227	448	-11	48.21%	50.67%
Marquette Twp	195	100	299	95	65.22%	33.44%
Moran Twp	294	289	589	5	49.92%	49.07%
Newton Twp	132	112	245	20	53.88%	45.71%
Portage Twp	354	229	586	125	60.41%	39.08%
St Ignace	513	545	1067	-32	48.08%	51.08%
St Ignace Twp	181	199	384	-18	47.14%	51.82%
Total	3399	2652	6099	747	55.73%	43.48%
Manistee County
Arcada Twp	228	224	454	4	50.22%	49.34%
Bear Lake Twp	486	425	922	61	52.71%	46.10%
Brown Twp	195	194	395	1	49.37%	49.11%
Cleon Twp	225	193	431	32	52.20%	44.78%
Dickson Twp	239	234	483	5	49.48%	48.45%
Filer Twp	619	748	1386	-129	44.66%	53.97%
Manistee	1174	1730	2949	-556	39.81%	58.66%
Manistee Twp	691	902	1616	-211	42.76%	55.82%
Maple Grove Twp	257	290	559	-33	45.97%	51.88%
Marilla Twp	102	81	184	21	55.43%	44.02%
Norman Twp	373	400	799	-27	46.68%	50.06%
Onekama Twp	500	409	916	91	54.59%	44.65%
Pleasanton Twp	257	187	450	70	57.11%	41.56%
Sprindale Twp	192	197	396	-5	48.48%	49.75%
Stronach Twp	199	259	462	-60	43.07%	56.06%
Total	5737	6473	12402	-736	46.26%	52.19%
Marquette
Champion Twp	52	90	146	-38	35.62%	61.64%
Chocolay Twp	1677	1702	3409	-25	49.19%	49.93%
Ely Twp	425	528	966	-103	44.00%	54.66%
Ewing Twp	48	31	84	17	57.14%	36.90%
Forsyth Twp	1284	1451	2785	-167	46.10%	52.10%
Humboldt Twp	128	134	266	-6	48.12%	50.38%
Ishpeming	1059	1767	2870	-708	36.90%	61.57%
Ishpeming Twp	798	1076	1887	-278	42.29%	57.02%
Marquette	3282	5396	8852	-2114	37.08%	60.96%
Marquette Twp	1002	1207	2242	-205	44.69%	53.84%
Michigamme Twp	108	121	231	-13	46.75%	52.38%
Negaunee	825	1255	2105	-430	39.19%	59.62%
Negaunee Twp	724	899	1647	-175	43.96%	54.58%
Powell Twp	227	257	490	-30	46.33%	52.45%
Republic Twp	283	350	639	-67	44.29%	54.77%
Richmond Twp	107	316	436	-209	24.54%	72.48%
Sands Twp	654	621	1287	33	50.82%	48.25%
Skandia Twp	233	194	434	39	53.69%	44.70%
Tilden Twp	215	307	525	-92	40.95%	58.48%
Turin Twp	36	38	75	-2	48.00%	50.67%
Wells Twp	67	62	129	5	51.94%	48.06%
West Branch Twp	372	313	695	59	53.53%	45.04%
Total	13606	18115	32200	-4509	42.25%	56.26%
Mason County
Free Soil Twp	176	234	415	-58	42.41%	56.39%
Grant Twp	214	266	487	-52	43.94%	54.62%
Hamlin Twp	1160	913	2097	247	55.32%	43.54%
Meade Twp	44	35	80	9	55.00%	43.75%
Sheridan twp	230	274	511	-44	45.01%	53.62%
Sherman twp	309	277	600	32	51.50%	46.17%
Victory twp	406	255	665	151	61.05%	38.35%
Total	2539	2254	4855	285	52.30%	46.43%
Menominee County
Cedarville Twp	87	62	150	25	58.00%	41.33%
Daggett Twp	189	124	318	65	59.43%	38.99%
Faithorn Twp	87	53	142	34	61.27%	37.32%
Gourley Twp	135	67	203	68	66.50%	33.00%
Harris Twp	426	370	805	56	52.92%	45.96%
Holmes Twp	103	69	172	34	59.88%	40.12%
Ingallston twp	303	230	536	73	56.53%	42.91%
Lake Twp	183	115	300	68	61.00%	38.33%
Mellen twp	279	229	512	50	54.49%	44.73%
Menominee	1531	1950	3517	-419	43.53%	55.44%
Menominee twp	908	927	1856	-19	48.92%	49.95%
Meyer Twp	248	224	475	24	52.21%	47.16%
Nadeau Twp	300	244	552	56	54.35%	44.20%
Spalding Twp	393	309	710	84	55.35%	43.52%
Stephenson	201	159	367	42	54.77%	43.32%
Stephenson Twp	191	110	304	81	62.83%	36.18%
Total	5564	5242	10919	322	50.96%	48.01%
Montmorency County
Albert Twp	767	506	1291	261	59.41%	39.19%
Avery twp	203	131	338	72	60.06%	38.76%
Briley twp	551	404	970	147	56.80%	41.65%
Hillman Twp	575	402	997	173	57.67%	40.32%
Loud Twp	96	76	174	20	55.17%	43.68%
Montmorency Twp	434	307	749	127	57.94%	40.99%
Rust Twp	151	99	254	52	59.45%	38.98%
Vienna Twp	151	124	278	27	54.32%	44.60%
Total	2928	2049	5051	879	57.97%	40.57%
Ontonagon County
Bergland Twp	171	122	294	49	58.16%	41.50%
Bohemia Twp	28	26	54	2	51.85%	48.15%
Carp Lake Twp	205	190	407	15	50.37%	46.68%
Greenland Twp	194	192	388	2	50.00%	49.48%
Haight Twp	55	46	101	9	54.46%	45.54%
Interior Twp	72	105	177	-33	40.68%	59.32%
Matchwood Twp	36	27	63	9	57.14%	42.86%
McMillin Twp	135	127	267	8	50.56%	47.57%
Ontonagon Twp	719	549	1290	170	55.74%	42.56%
Rockland Twp	64	44	109	20	58.72%	40.37%
Stannard twp	227	158	389	69	58.35%	40.62%
Total	1906	1586	3539	320	53.86%	44.81%
Oscoda County
Big Creek Twp	718	589	1335	129	53.78%	44.12%
Clinton Twp	136	104	247	32	55.06%	42.11%
Comins Twp	598	272	885	326	67.57%	30.73%
Elmer Twp	246	176	427	70	57.61%	41.22%
Greenwood Twp	325	256	592	69	54.90%	43.24%
Mentor Twp	285	260	556	25	51.26%	46.76%
Total	2308	1657	4042	651	57.10%	40.99%
Otsego County
Bagley Twp	1687	1053	2776	634	60.77%	37.93%
Charlton Twp	432	293	735	139	58.78%	39.86%
Chester Twp	361	265	636	96	56.76%	41.67%
Corwith Twp	411	359	787	52	52.22%	45.62%
Dover Twp	194	118	316	76	61.39%	37.34%
Elmira Twp	562	376	951	186	59.10%	39.54%
Gaylord	800	612	1438	188	55.63%	42.56%
Hayes Twp	763	491	1272	272	59.98%	38.60%
Livingston Twp	812	515	1342	297	60.51%	38.38%
Otsego Lake Twp	986	599	1602	387	61.55%	37.39%
Total	7008	4681	11855	2327	59.11%	39.49%
Presque Isle County
Allis Twp	206	257	470	-51	43.83%	54.68%
Bearinger Twp	143	103	250	40	57.20%	41.20%
Belknap Twp	239	133	379	106	63.06%	35.09%
Bismark Twp	123	87	214	36	57.48%	40.65%
Case Twp	204	181	393	23	51.91%	46.06%
Krakow Twp	219	199	423	20	51.77%	47.04%
Metz Twp	68	70	139	-2	48.92%	50.36%
Molke Twp	111	67	179	44	62.01%	37.43%
North Allis Twp	139	116	257	23	54.09%	45.14%
Ocqueoc Twp	191	182	376	9	50.80%	48.40%
Onaway	138	156	299	-18	46.15%	52.17%
Posen Twp	176	209	386	-33	45.60%	54.15%
Presque Isle Twp	644	467	1124	177	57.30%	41.55%
Pulawski Twp	89	95	185	-6	48.11%	51.35%
Rogers City	772	633	1425	139	54.18%	44.42%
Rogers Twp	332	237	578	95	57.44%	41.00%
Total	3794	3192	7077	602	53.61%	45.10%
Schoolcraft County
Doyle Twp	166	169	339	-3	48.97%	49.85%
Germfask Twp	182	46	229	136	79.48%	20.09%
Hiawatha Twp	411	384	803	27	51.18%	47.82%
Inwood Twp	211	190	406	21	51.97%	46.80%
Manistique	545	602	1159	-57	47.02%	51.94%
Manistique Twp	267	218	489	49	54.60%	44.58%
Mueller Twp	75	51	127	24	59.06%	40.16%
Seney Twp	48	19	69	29	69.57%	27.54%
Thompson Twp	237	186	427	51	55.50%	43.56%
Total	2142	1865	4048	277	52.92%	46.07%
Total All	189907	160582	354970	29325	53.50%	45.24%

With the wild swings at times along with the ticketsplitting, this district leans R at the top of the ticket, and is a swing district downticket. 

Lana Theis running in 42nd District for State Rep

Campaign season is starting early here in Livingston County. We already have three candidates running in the 47th District, and now we have our first announcement for my own 42nd District (Which was the 66th District until 2012). Lana Theis, past chair of LCGOP and current Brighton Township Treasurer, is running to replace Bill Rogers, who is currently term limited.

I've known Lana for almost ten years. I first met her when she was one of the Victory Center directors back in 2004. Since then, she's had various party leadership positions including being the past LCGOP Chair.  She was also one of the leaders against the infamous and highly restrictive Brighton Township Tree Ordnance (Repealed) and later became Brighton Township Treasurer. She's currently in her 2nd term. Most recently, she lead the fight for Proposal 5, which was the push for a 2/3rd legislative requirement to raise taxes. I supported that proposal and voted for it. It unfortunately did not pass. She's also a longtime friend of Americans for Prosperity.

Lana is a fiscal and social conservative and does not hide that fact. I think she'll be a strong candidate if she gets the funding and stays focused.

Other candidates may run as well. If everyone I think might run does run, I'm going to have a real tough time with my decision, and that's in a positive sense instead of a lesser of evils sense. Most of the names I'm hearing are good people.

I'm not making any endorsements outside of the winning primary candidate because I am the current LCGOP chair.

District Updates coming soon

The Precinct reports are out by the Secretary of State. I'll go over the districts when I get a chance once things calm down some here starting at the end of April. Since I'm by choice limiting myself to an extent on the ideological posts since becoming chair, I'm going to focus more on the districts (Congress, State Senate, State Rep in that order) and hopefully redo the county reports which are very outdated to say the least.

UN Small Arms treaty passes

Oftentimes, the UN gun grab articles out are boys who cried wolf. The reality is that there is a potential wolf, but it wasn't an imminent threat. Three things now we need to look for is this. Will Obama sign it? (probable) Will the Senate ratify it? (unknown) Will it survive SCOTUS? (unknown)


From the Washington Times

The United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday signed off on a sweeping, first-of-its-kind treaty to regulate the international arms trade, brushing aside worries from U.S. gun rights advocates that the pact could lead to a national firearms registry and disrupt the American gun market.
The long-debated U.N. Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) requires countries to regulate and control the export of weaponry such as battle tanks, combat vehicles and aircraft and attack helicopters, as well as parts and ammunition for such weapons. It also provides that signatories will not violate arms embargoes, international treaties regarding illicit trafficking, or sell weaponry to a countries for genocide, crimes against humanity or other war crimes.

The treaty itself is on the UN Website. Hopefully this Link goes directly to it

The danger is in the treaty itself. 

Ammunition/Munitions

Each State Party shall establish and maintain a national control system to

regulate the export of ammunition/munitions fired, launched or delivered by the

conventional arms covered under Article 2

(1), and shall apply the provisions of

Article 6 and Article 7 prior to authorizing the export of such

ammunition/munitions.

Article 4

Parts and Components

Each State Party shall establish and maintain a national control system to

regulate the export of parts and components where the export is in a form that

provides the capability to assemble the conventional arms covered under Article 2

(1) and shall apply the provisions of Article 6 and Article 7 prior to authorizing the

export of such parts and components

 

National Control System. It's very broad. It's intended to be broad and cover most firearms.

Each State Party shall take measures necessary to implement the provisions of

this Treaty and shall designate competent

national authorities in order to have an

effective and transparent national control system regulating the transfer of

conventional arms covered under Article 2

(1) and of items covered under Article 3

and Article 4.

6. Each State Party shall designate one or more national points of contact to

exchange information on matters related to

the implementation of this Treaty. Each

State Party shall notify the Secretariat, established under Article 18, of its national

point(s) of contact and keep the information updated

 

That sounds like registration (and eventual confiscation) to me. 

These are the Export Provisions. Keep in mind that many of our firearms and ammo are imported. Glock. H&K. Wolf ammo (yeah, I know, don't recommend it).

Export and Export Assessment

1. If the export is not prohibited under Article 6, each exporting State Party, prior

to authorization of the export of conventional arms covered under Article 2 (1) or of

items covered under Article 3 or Article 4,under its jurisdiction and pursuant to its

national control system, shall, in an objective and non-discriminatory manner,

taking into account relevant factors, including information provided by the

importing State in accordancewith Article 8 (1), assess the potential that theconventional arms or items:

(a) would contribute to or undermine peace and security;

(b) could be used to:

(i) commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law;

(ii) commit or facilitate a serious violation of international human rights law;

A/CONF.217/2013/L.3

13-27217

6

(iii) commit or facilitate an act constituting an offence under international

conventions or protocols relating to terrorism to which the exporting State is a

Party; or

(iv) commit or facilitate an act constituting an offence under international

conventions or protocols relating to transnational organized crime to which the

exporting State is a Party.

What we need to remember is to not make a mistake many on the right did with the Bush admin regarding the so called Patriot Act. I opposed it from the start. I was wary of the DHS. I did not trust an Obama, Hillary, Kerry, or John Edwards controlled government with those powers. I didn't trust Bush with them either. When passing laws, think of the results if the worst president in the world with the worst appointees would be enforcing them. Then ask if you still support it. If the answer is no, then it's a bad law. 

More Registration here. 

Record keeping

1. Each State Party shall maintain national records, pursuant to its national laws

and regulations, of its issuance of export authorizations or its actual exports of the

conventional arms covered under Article 2 (1).

2. Each State Party is encouraged to maintain records of conventional arms

covered under Article 2 (1) that are transferred to its territory as the final destination

or that are authorized to transit or trans-ship territory u

nder its jurisdiction.

3. Each State Party is encouraged to include in those records: the quantity, value,

model/type, authorized international transfers of conventional arms covered under

Article 2 (1), conventional arms actuallytransferred, details of exporting State(s),

importing State(s), transit and trans-shipmentState(s), and end users, as appropriate.

4. Records shall be kept for a minimum of ten years

This needs to be blocked in the Senate.

WALLY boondoggle still planned

It's April Fool's Day. Speaking of April Fools, that infamous WALLY train isn't going away. 

From the Ann Arbor News

Local officials working on the WALLY commuter rail project say city-owned property at 415 W. Washington St. is a potential site for a future downtown Ann Arbor train station.
"The 415 site is a candidate, but is not the only possibility," said Michael Benham, the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority's strategic planner.
Benham said work has just begun on the first phase of the WALLY Station Location and Design Project, which includes a search for a downtown station location.

A couple of paragraphs later

A commuter rail station at 415 W. Washington is unlikely to happen until years into the future even if the site is chosen and funding becomes available. In theory, it would service the north-south commuter rail line known as WALLY (Washtenaw and Livingston Line), which is in the planning stages now and would link Ann Arbor and Howell with stops in between.
The plans for a downtown commuter rail station along the north-south Ann Arbor Railroad tracks are entirely separate from the new Amtrak passenger train station some city officials want to see built on Fuller Road along the east-west Norfolk Southern tracks between Detroit and Chicago.

In theory........ How often to projects in theory don't happen the way people think will happen. Remember the people mover in Detroit?

A previous study estimated about 1,300 riders each way per day would use a commuter rail service between Ann Arbor and Howell.
It's also estimated to require $19 million to $35 million in capital costs. The total estimated operating cost is about $7.1 million annually.
Benham said much of that would be covered by passenger fares plus an assumed level of state operating funds, resulting in a local share of about $2.2 million. So-called "wild cards" that could affect operating costs are insurance and trackage rights.

Supporters of a north-south rail line bringing commuters into Ann Arbor argue it would be significantly more costly to add extra highway lanes for automobile traffic on US-23. The Michigan Department of Transportation previously estimated adding a third lane to US-23 would cost about $500 million.
Some remain skeptical there's enough demand to support WALLY, though, and some question the money being spent to investigate multiple long-range transit initiatives at once.

I'm waiting for this "$7.1 million" to go up to 14 million in operating costs along with the $35 million capital costs that was once "2.9 million". It was originally supposed to be 4 million in operating costs. I wrote this in 2007 and still don't see how the math works.

4.9 million will cover what? You have salaries, security, normal wear and tear, energy costs, and runs. 2.9 for startup? Between the trains, parking lot construction, training, etc? I'm skeptical. Even using that number, will you get a profit on that. 15,000 people (estimated number of commuters from Livingston to Ann Arbor at $225 a month (rumored price) will get you 3.37 Million a month - that's if EVERY commuter in the county uses it and pays that amount. I'm guessing most of the commuters to Ann Arbor are in Brighton, Hartland, and Hamburg. Hamburg has 20,000 people. I'll guess that 4000 of them commute to Ann Arbor, with 1000 in Howell (city has 10000 people) commuting. That'll give 5000 of the areas covered from the train. 5000 * 225 - 1.125 million a month - if all commute on the train. Anyone familiar with Hamburg knows how spread out it is. Part of it is "Brighton", most of it is "Pinckney", part of it is "Lakeland", and part of it is "Whitmore Lake". I'll be shocked if most of the commuters are going to drive a few miles to wait for the train. This area is spread out. Howell is denser, but has much less population - and it too is spread out a bit in its eastern and northern most areas near 59 - and forget about getting much help from Genoa (even with the Chilson stop - that area is flat out country), Marion, Howell Twp, and Oceola.

In order to cover the estimated operation costs from regular commuters - you need 408,334 a month - 1814 commuters a day (including weekends, so weekend warriors are very important). That leaves 2.9 million in debt from startup costs which can be paid for over a few years with good profit.

Can you get 15-20% of county's Ann Arbor commuters to use the train EVERY DAY - despite cutting out Brighton and Hartland from the route? If you can, then I'll cook up some fried crow.

This quote from the Ann Arbor mayor got a chuckle out of me.

He noted the University of Michigan has offered to subsidize the cost of WALLY tickets for its employees who want to commute to work by rail.
"As I recall, back in 2007 or '08, the U-M surveyed their employees who lived in zip codes along the WALLY line and 1,400 of them said they would ride the train if given the choice," he said.

Zip code? Mayor, do you know how large the zip codes are in Livingston County? 48843 runs from South Genoa Twp to the Genesee County line. Besides. 1400? That won't break even under the old estimates.

Let's remember who we are. We're a spread out semi-rural county. Homes are spread out. Countywide, Livingston County has about 180,000 people. Washtenaw County about 345,000. Between both counties, there is about 550,000 people. The only dense population pockets in that area along the train route are a small part of Ann Arbor near Barton Rd, one block of Hamburg, and Downtown Howell. This route doesn't cover Ypsi or Brighton.

Not one time of Livingston County, State, or Federal money should go to this project. If Washtenaw or A2 wants to bankroll this, that's their business since I don't live there.