Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The Results

Politico has a good map, mostly by county. The bad news is that we didn't take the senate. I didn't think we could run the table. The races that surprised me to a degree were West Virgnia and Nevada. Reid successfully localized his race like he did against Ensign years ago. As sucky as he is, better him than Schumer. Washington State and Colorado will be close and are undecided. Dems held on as expected in California, Oregon, Connecticut, Delaware, New York. The big win was Florida where Charlie Crist can not break 30% after his party switch. Rubio won the three way race big with 49%. A few other races are yet to be decided.

I'm going to concentrate on the Michigan races. I'll get into counties later, but it's a clean sweep statewide. Governor, AG, Secretary of State, Supreme Court, and most if not all of the trustees.

MI-01 - Dan Benishek picked up the old Stupak seat through hard work. McDowell won Alger, Chippewa, Gogebic, and Marquette counties. That's it. Nothing south of the bridge, and all the key areas went for Benishek except Chippewa County, home base for McDowell. I'll post more on this later.

MI-3 - Amash wins. Not even close.

MI-5 - I wondered about this one. John Kupiec didn't win, but gave Kildee his toughest run since 94. With Dr Rob Steele's polling, I wondered if Kupiec also had a shot. This was closer than expected, and Kupiec won Tuscola County by a big margin and nearly won his part of Bay County. In the end, too much Flint.

MI-07 - Tim Walberg defeated the chameleon yesman Mark Schauer. He won everywhere but Calhoun and Eaton Counties, but his losses in Calhoun were much less than 08.

MI-09 - It looks like Peters and his millions somehow survives. That one sucks. Rocky is a good guy.

MI-15 - Dingell survives. Dr Rob Steel took Monroe County in a big way, but Ann Arbor is tough to overcome. I haven't seen the Wayne County numbers yet here.

State Senate districts:
1. D6 - Glenn Anderson gets a big win to cut the dems losses.
2. D7 - Patrick Colbeck wins one of the toughest defenses for the GOP. Bruce Patterson's seat in Wayne County.
3. D10 - Tory Rocca picks up Mickey Switalski's State Senate seat in Macomb County. That one is somewhat surprising considering Roseville. +1 GOP
4. D13 - John Pappageorge saves one of the other toughest defenses for the GOP in Oakland County.
5. D17 - Randy Richardville easily wins a not so easy to win defense in his Monroe County based seat.
6. D20 - Tonya Schuitmaker wins a key defense based in Kalamazoo County
7. D26 - Big pickup. Dave Robertson takes the Cherry seat. (John and Deb). +2GOP
8. D29 - Dave Hildenbrand wins one of our toughest defenses.
9. D31 - Mike Green makes a big comeback by taking the Bay County/Thumb seat by a wide margin. I'm not shocked at Green's win, but I'm shocked by the margin. +3GOP
10. D32 - Dr. Roger Kahn wins a tough Saginaw County defense.
11. D34 - Goeff Hansen gets a 20pt win in a Muskegon County based district. That's not supposed to happen. It did.
12. D36 - John Moolenaar shows how North Michigan feels about democrats these days. The conservative independents ripped the dems worse than they did the GOP in 2006.
13. D37 - Tom Casperson won the Joe Mack seat in the UP. The GOP has no chance at a UP wide seat that doesn't have Mackinac or Chippewa County. That's now false. I don't know when the GOP last held this seat. +04GOP

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State House
1. D1 - Dems hold this one. Tim Bledsoe survived his Grosse Pointe/Detroit seat.
2. D13 - Downriver seat was within 10% for the dems. That means trouble. It should be 20%+
3. D15 - Dearborn starting to become competitive again? The margin was within 10% here too.
4. D19 - Livonia. Usually closer. John Walsh destroyed out his opponent 2-1.
5. D20 - Northwest Wayne County - Kurt Heise takes the open Corriveau seat. +1GOP
6. D21 - Dian Slavens survives barely. Good defense for the dems who can probably thank demographics in Van Buren Township for the save.
7. D23 - South Downriver - Pat Sommerville defeats incumbent Deb Kennedy. +2GOP
8. D24 - St Clair Shores/Harrison Twp - Sarah Roberts loses as incumbent. The winner is Anthony Forlini. +3GOP
9. D25 - Jon Switalski barely survives his North Warren seat.
10. D26 - Jim Townsend has a fairly close win for the dems, in Royal Oak of all place. That shouldn't be close.
11. D30 - The dems were supposed to win this. They didn't. Jeff Farrington takes Rocca's old seat.
12. D31 - This one hurt. Dan Tollis gave it a good run, but couldn't take the Mt Clemens/Clinton Twp seat. Marlyn Lane took the Fred Miller seat.
13. D32 - Andrea LaFontaine wins the North Macomb/St Clair County seat. +4 GOP
14. D39 - Likely Recount between Lisa Brown and Lois Shulman in the West Bloomfield seat.
15. D52 - Mark Ouimet wins the Pam Byrnes seat. Thank Snyder for that one. +5GOP
16. D54 - Rick Olson wins the open South Washtenaw/West Monroe seat. The Milosch/Angerer seat comes home. +6GOP
17. D55 - Dale Zorn beats Kate Ebli in the Monroe County seat. +7 GOP
18. D57 - The GOP takes the Lenawaee County seat from the Spades for the first time since it was Tim Walberg's seat. Nancy Jenkins wins it big. +8 GOP
19. D64 - Marty Griffin goes down to Earl Poleski by 19 pts as an incumbent in Jackson County. +9 GOP
20. D65 - Mike Shirkey takes the old Mortimer seat back in Jackson County. +10 GOP
21. D70 - Rick Outman beats Mike Huckleberry in the Greenville/Ionia district. +11 GOP.
22. D75 - Demographics saved the dems in this Grand Rapids seat.
23. D83 - The thumb swung hard against the dems. Paul Muxlow won the Espinoza (who beat him) seat by 20pts. +12 GOP
24. D84 - Kurt Damrow and Terry Brown will probably be in a recount.
25. D91 - Holly Hughes won the open seat in Muskegon County. +13GOP
26. D96 - The dems almost lost the Bay City district. 4pt win.
27. D97 - Joel Johnson won Tim Moore's old seat. Good defense.
28. D99 - Kevin Cotter won the toughest defensive test for the GOP. Mt Pleasant.
29. D101- Dan Scripps won the Obama wave and lost this one. Ray Franz wins his rematch. +14 GOP
30. D103 - The good luck streak of the Sheltrown last name is over. Bruce Rendon wins by 25%. +15 GOP
31. D106 - The Alpena seat is finally back. Peter Pettalia won the open seat. +16 GOP
32. D107 - The Shackleton/McDowell seat swung back. Frank Foster by 26% +17GOP
33. D108 - EdMcBroom beat incumbent Judy Nerat by 20%. The Casperson seat is back. +18GOP
34. D110 - Matt Huuki took the open seat 56-44. This was close before, but I'm not sure the GOP ever had this seat since before the mining industry. +19 GOP.

Great pickups in state. Don't blow it.

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