Elections Report - Livingston County 2013

I didn't follow out county closely, so I'll just mention the winners of those. 

South Lyon Millage Renewal passed easily.

Webberville School millage renewal passed easily.

Byron Schools proposal failed.

Mott Community College Bond passed (lost in Livingston)

Fenton Schools Headlee Override passed.

The other elections went as follows:

Howell Mayor - Phil Campbell was unopposed.

Howell City Council Member (Top 3 win)
Daria W. Devantier 183
Richard Grimes 241
Jeff Hansen 378 
Nikolas Hertrich 264
Scott Niblock 437 
Nick Proctor 384 
Write-in Votes 4

Both incumbents win, along with Nick Proctor who ran probably the most active campaign of the challengers. 

Howell City Board of Review (Top 2 win)
William J. Flattery 378 
Bob Parker 309
David Teggerdine 529 
Write-in Votes 2

Incumbents win there as well. 

Brighton City Council Member  (Top 4 win)
Ricci Bandkau 795 
Shawn Pipoly 791 
Kristoffer L. Tobbe 811 
Susan L. Walters-Steinaker 469
Shanda Willis 738
Write-in Votes 10

Both incumbents win there, along with newcomers Tobbe and Willis. Willis is a democrat (replacing another dem) so we'll have to keep an eye out there if she wants to run for another office in the future. I'd rather not deal with another Tipton situation.

Brighton City Proposal 13-01
Shall the City of Brighton, for the purpose of improvement, repair and maintenance of public streets, public sidewalks and public storm drainage facilities, levy up to 1.2500 mills ($1.2500 per thousand dollars of taxable value on all real and personal property) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014-2023, inclusive?  If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2013, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $487,061.21.

YES 541
NO 736

Brighton City Proposal 13-02
Shall the City of Brighton, for the purpose of purchasing and maintaining public safety equipment, which may include patrol vehicles, body armor, weapons and law enforcement-related technology, levy up to 0.3800 mills ($0.3800 per thousand dollars of taxable value on all real and personal property) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014-2023, inclusive?  If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2013, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $148,066.61.
YES 690
NO 590

Brighton City Proposal 13-03

Shall the City of Brighton, for the purpose of improvement, repair and maintenance of public buildings and public parks, levy up to 0.3700 mills ($0.3700 per thousand dollars of taxable value on all real and personal property) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014-2023, inclusive?  If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2013, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $144,170.12.

YES 452
NO 825

Brighton City Proposal 13-04
Shall the City of Brighton, for the purpose of replacing the existing residential rubbish collection fee, levy up to 1.1580 mills ($1.1580 per thousand dollars of taxable value on all real and personal property) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014-2023, inclusive?  If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2013, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $451,213.51.
YES 562
NO 708

Lastly, the Genoa Township Millage. Protect Genoa Township Neighborhoods has the whole run down there. Here's the results.

	Turnout	Yes	No	Total	Yes%	No%
Genoa 1 & 9	17.71%	186	378	564	32.98%	67.02%
Genoa 2 & 10	16.82%	117	249	366	31.97%	68.03%
Genoa 3 & 11	19.58%	92	374	466	19.74%	80.26%
Genoa 4 & 8	33.91%	181	698	879	20.59%	79.41%
Genoa 5 & 12	31.62%	161	417	578	27.85%	72.15%
Genoa 6 & 7	36.14%	291	778	1069	27.22%	72.78%
Total	25.93%	1028	2894	3922	26.21%	73.79%

I got involved in this for family reasons. I didn't ask the GOP to get involved in this partly because of family, and partly because I didn't want to be a distraction and didn't want this to turn into R vs D, especially as County Dems aren't the problem with this turkey of a proposal and its master plan. I was a consultant and the blogger. I was not and am not the face of the group. Others can wear that hat better than I can there. .  Protect Genoa Township Neighborhoods had support from Republicans, Democrats, Independents, non-political, establishments, tea parties, and all those in between. The 73.79% results with higher turnout than an August primary election showed that.

This was an old school grass roots campaign. It didn't have a lot of money, but enough for a campaign if it wasn't wasted and smart decisions were made. The committee knew if people had the facts and saw through the company line horse manure that this would lose. The postcards came out, as did the stories in the Argus, Brighton Patch, and WHMI. Word of mouth and old fashion small town and neighborhood politics did the rest and the people went out to vote. The Southern half of the township (South of Crooked Lake) all had 30%+ turnout. They all not only were impacted by taxes, but by the roads to be widened and paved. They didn't want to pay for it. They didn't want the property tax increase, increased assessments (and more taxes), reduced property from the widening of the roads, trees cut down, infringement of rural character, more speeding cars, and the waste of tax money.

If there's a massive projects plan, it would be more prudent to run these by the people in those neighborhoods long before putting this on the ballot and then claiming public support based on a survey of 450 people. If you claim that Mountain, and Prairie View want to widen and pave Cunningham Lake, you better be damn sure that's the case. That was either a bad read or an outright lie, I don't know which. Precincts 7 and 8 sure didn't support this or even run close to 50-50. A couple of outspoken individuals does not make a majority.

This goes beyond Cunningham Lake as well. Most didn't want southern Bauer, Beck, Conrad or Herbst roads widened and paved either. Crooked Lake was mixed, but a lot of people didn't want that widened and paved either. There was also jurisdictional issues between the road commission and the township. The roundabout wasn't popular either. Most important of all, this millage didn't fix the main roads.
 
This roads millage was bad all around, and the results showed that. Other things are in the works as well, but that's down the road. 

Parker Wins, Library Millage wins, Whitmore Lake Schools bond crushed

From the Argus

They’re keeping the doors open seven days a week at the Howell Carnegie Library while Don Parker is keeping his Howell-area County Commission seat after Tuesday’s voting.

....

Parker, a Republican, was appointed to the District 5 Livingston County Commission seat earlier this year to replace Jay Drick, who resigned to become a county District Court magistrate.
He will now serve the remainder of Drick’s term, which expires in December 2014.
Parker, a Howell attorney also served on the board from 2002-2010 and said he would follow in the financial footsteps of his fellow GOP board members.
Democrat Mike Tipton, a Howell Township trustee, and Libertarian Party nominee Michael Brennan were unsuccessful in their bids to crack the all-GOP commission.
“I’m a little disappointed, I thought we’d do a little better,” Tipton said. “It looks like the Republican machine went out and did what it always does.”

It wasn't the "machine." Mike. There wasn't any straight ticket advantage this time with only two things and one partisan race on the ballot. This was old fashion hard work by the Don Parker campaign. Tipton worked hard, but he didn't outwork Don Parker. We didn't take this election for granted. We expected their best and was prepared for it. There would be no "Scott Brown" here. There would be no "Bill Jefferson" here. 

Ont that same note, we've heard a lot about the snide comments from Tipton towards some supporters of Parker. Well, I got one thing to say about that. Keep that trustee seat warm for us in 2016, you won't be getting a free pass this time around.


By the numbers.

Whitmore Lake Schools Bond
Yes - 406 - 31.74%
No - 873 - 68.26%

Howell Library
Yes - 3802
No - 1696

County Commission District 5

	Parker	Tipton	Brennan	WI	Total	GOP	DEM	LIB
Howell 1/2	312	214	65	2	593	52.61%	36.09%	10.96%
Howell 3	277	142	22	2	443	62.53%	32.05%	4.97%
H Twp 1/3	250	159	40	3	452	55.31%	35.18%	8.85%
H Twp 2	158	106	27	1	292	54.11%	36.30%	9.25%
Cohoctah	138	86	22	0	246	56.10%	34.96%	8.94%
Total	1135	707	176	8	2026	56.02%	34.90%	8.69%
Howell City
Howell 1/2	312	214	65	2	593	52.61%	36.09%	10.96%
Howell 3	277	142	22	2	443	62.53%	32.05%	4.97%
	589	356	87	4	1036	56.85%	34.36%	8.40%
H Twp 1/3	250	159	40	3	452	55.31%	35.18%	8.85%
H Twp 2	158	106	27	1	292	54.11%	36.30%	9.25%
H Twp	408	265	67	4	744	54.84%	35.62%	9.01%

Post election Michigan analysis - Romney v Santorum

There's a lot of spin going on about this election. Santorum's claiming he won on election day. I think he's right. Pundits are claiming that Santorum collapsed from a 15 point lead on the last day. I think those are largely wrong. He never had a 15 pt lead here. There's also a lot of pissing and moaning about crossover Democrats (around 10% or so) and exit polls having Romney "Winning" republican voters.


As for crossovers, they may have mattered in the 13th district, but that's about it. ALL of the other major democrat districts went for Romney. 5th (narrowly - and Santorum won the Republican county), 9th (Levin), 12th (Dingell), 14th (Clarke/Peters). Romney won the 8th, 10th, and 11th held by Republicans, but the rest went for Santorum. Romney won the vote in Bay and Saginaw Counties. It's Tuscola that nearly cost him in the 5th.

Apparently, the at large was supposed to be split, but state party wants to change the rules for Romney so there isn't a tie here. (eyeroll). If Jason Gillman's right, This is the type of bullshit that pisses people off. It's the same reason I have absolutely no sympathy whatsoever about Santorum courting Reagan Democrats, or getting crossover votes. Romney's supporters chose this system. They wanted the open or closed in name only primary. They wanted it because they were worried about a Pawlenty or someone else upsetting their favorite candidate and thought that Romney would ironically appeal to independents and democrats. I pushed for caucus when this was decided, and I support that now. I don't think democrats should vote in Republican primaries. However, I'm not going to get pissed off when it happens when it is preventable and the powers that be choose not to prevent it. T.S. Don't change things after the fact because your boy didn't get the win. This is why people get mad at party leadership. Santorum did best in the most republican counties, with the exception of Livingston, Atrim, and Emmet. Santorum won Ottawa, Allegan, Missaukee, Hillsdale, Barry, Branch, St Joe, Sanilac, Lapeer, Osceola, Wexford, and Kent. That ain't due to democrats.

The biggest lesson from last Tuesday was this. The election wasn't Tuesday. It was from 30 days before Tuesday that ended Tuesday. I also made one major miscalculation in my predictions. I knew seniors would go for Romney as did the absentees. The absentee vote was key. I don't know the exact percentages, and won't because some counties combine absentee votes with normal precinct votes in their reporting. Others don't. Here are some samples.

Macomb County:
Romney Election Day 23,188
Romney AV 14,650
Total: 37,838

Santorum Election Day 22,999
Santorum AV 7,219
Total: 30,218

Total AV's - 21,869 (32.13% of the vote between the two of them not counting others)

That was enough to flip the 10th District to Romney. Absentees probably flipped the 5th as well although I can't get good AV reports there.

Romney won Kalamazoo County 9671-9008. It was absentees that once again made the difference there. Even in areas Santorum won, he lost absentees. Some areas in K-zoo combined absentees. Some didn't. The REPORTED AS ABSENTEE vote went 2479-1052 for Romney. That alone was 19% of the vote and does not include about 1/2 of the municipalities so the closer AV number between the two of them was probably 25-30% Take away just the reported as absentee votes, and Santorum won K-zoo County 7956-7192.

Unfortunately, I can find good AV precinct data in interior Northern MI counties that voted for Romney narrowly, but from what I have seen so far, the AV's are at least 25% of the vote, and might be closer to 30% statewide. If that is the case, then the polling samples were way off earlier. The polls had 17% absentee estimates. Why the discrepancies?

Exit polls had Santorum winning those ages 30-64, Romney winning Seniors, and Ron Paul winning the 20-somethings. There isn't a lot of surprises. Santorum did best with those "most conservative" and those who strongly emphasized the life issue. It was the pro-life vote. That's in-line with most polling up through the elections. The senior sample thought should be higher. This is speculation, but the pollsters probably missed the snowbirds. A lot of the voters were probably in Florida. Florida already had their primary and Romney won. A lot of the snowbirds probably made an early decision and sent it in. Pollsters didn't reach them because they wern't home or at least the home where they are likely registered. Why would they be registered in Michigan? Property tax homestead exemptions. The millage rates are much lower with homesteads than a vacation home here.

Absentees are often 30%+ in a general election. Anyone running campaigns in Michigan need to remember that and start early. Romney did and won because of that. Santorum became a 'legitimate candidate' in Michigan on February 7th (hat trick win), after the voting already started in Michigan. His whole Michigan campaign was in three weeks. It's amazing he even competed here with two strikes against him (money and early voting).

Long story short. Don't forget the absentees.

Unofficial Michigan results by congressional district - Romney 16, Santorum 14

3rd Update 3-1 - Changing the rules after the fact gives Romney the extra delegate.

2nd Update 2-29 - Apparently the at large delegates will be split 1-1 because they were close. That means Romney and Santorum actually tied in Michigan.

Update 2-29 - According to MIRS, Santorum won 1-4, 6, 7, 13. Romney won 5, 8-12, 14.

I'd still like to see the Tuscola numbers. Surprised at 13 from the absentee numbers I saw, but knew it was close.

MIRS numbers:
Congressional District Vote Breakdown (according to the Michigan Republican Party).

1st: Romney, 32,252. Santorum*, 32,325.
2nd: Romney, 29,912. Santorum*, 39,900.
3rd: Romney, 31,999. Santorum*, 33,491.
4th: Romney, 27,117. Santorum*, 29,528.
5th: Romney* 21,691. Santorum, 20,837.

6th: Romney, 26,738. Santorum*, 31,126.
7th: Romney, 28,925. Santorum*, 30,133.
8th: Romney*, 32,930. Santorum, 25,234.
9th: Romney* 24,060. Santorum, 17,221.
10th: Romney*, 31,319. Santorum, 29,278.

11th: Romney*, 41,733. Santorum, 24,577.
12th: Romney*, 19,623. Santorum, 17,675.
13th: Romney, 7,946. Santorum* 9,481.
14th: Romney*, 18,157. Santorum, 10,844

-------------------------------

First off, ignore the Sec of State's website for delegates. It's supposed to be by the NEW districts, and not the old districts. CNN did a great job with the county map.

I ran some numbers. The obvious districts ones I'm going to just call. Districts 2 and 6 went for Santorum just based on looking. Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14 went for Romney. I can't get a read on the 13th, so I'm going to assume it's Romney's unless I find results that say otherwise due to the 10,000 vote Romney spread in Wayne County. (Updated - Wayne County Precinct results are in. MIRS called it for Santorum.

District 1:
Santorum by about 590. Mason County wasn't included, but Santorum won it so I'll call it for Santorum.

District 3:
Santorum by about 1669

District 4:
Santorum by about 1982 (Saginaw's clerk numbers for district splitting)

District 5:
Depends on Tuscola County. Too close to call. ALL of Tuscola gives Santorum a 968 vote edge. With it, Santorum wins by 511. Without it Romney leads by 457. I can't call it. MIRS called it for Romney.

District 7:
I have Santorum up 930 not factoring in Scio Township. 1/2 of Scio Township is in the 7th, and it's the less democrat part, relatively speaking (Dexter side). Romney took the Washtenaw portion of the 7th by 865, not counting Scio. It's close, but I'm going to call the 7th for Santorum. - (Scio is in. Even with all of Scio included, Santorum wins by about 300-400)

District 13:
MIRS called it for Santorum. Crossovers may have won this one since I think Romney won (barely) the more republican areas due to absentee votes.

So right now as it stands:
Romney wins overall, CD 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14. Total of 16
Santorum wins CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 13. Total of 14.


--------------

What did I learn from this? Romney didn't win this election today. He won this election largely 30 days ago. Santorum may actually have won "today." The election wasn't only today though. Absentee voters skewed the polls off slightly, and turned what I expected to be 1% either way into an approximate 3% victory. Seniors according to an exit poll voted for Romney by 16%. Absentee voting went higher if the patterns I saw in Kent, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties went statewide. I had a bad feeling when I saw a low turnout today at the polls, combined with heavy absentees for Romney. Romney polled well with seniors which concerned me because in elections, they often run the show and bring their pick the victory. That's not to any party's advantage in Michigan despite Obama's bad polling among seniors. Seniors would also be the folks who remember George Romney as governor where I'd only know the name from political history.

The other thing I thought was a mistake by both candidates was not visiting Livingston County. This is the 3rd most republican county by percentage in the state, and it was ignored. Romney won it, which isn't surprising because he DID visit Milford next door and has at least been here before. Santorum had a chance to introduce himself here and didn't do so. Many voters here relied on the news when defining Santorum. Many also did with Romney, but a lot of folks have met him or met someone who has met him, especially Oakland transplants. Advantage Romney.

This puts Romney in a good position for Super Tuesday, but nothing's set in stone yet. There's still a primary. Personally at this point, I'd like to see a brokered convention. I never thought I'd say that. I don't expect it to happen, but I think we'd get a better overall GENERAL election candidate from a convention than what we are saddled with today. Romney's organization saved his ass here today. It's his biggest campaign strength. The problem is that there's only so much that can be done with this flawed a candidate. Santorum didn't become a player until Iowa and then those three wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (I think). He then did what he did in Michigan in only a month while taking a scorched earth blast from Romney. Will he recover or not? I don't know. I don't know if Newt's still in the game either.

After today, I'm rooting for the brokered convention. That's my new endorsement, long shot as it may be. Until the final decision is made, I'll be happy to go back to covering state level and local level stuff.

Michigan Results for February 28th Primary posted here

8:07

Polls have closed here outside of a couple of Yooper counties in central time.

I'm going to try and keep up with the results and post them here. Keep in mind the following.

The winner may or may not finish first statewide. The winner is who wins most of the congressional districts. I expect this to be a nailbiter. My prediction is Romney by 1% statewide thanks to absentees with Santorum being the actual winner by congressional district. I hope I'm half right and Mr Scorched Earth gets upset completely. Santorum likely got walloped with absentees. That's tough to get past, although possible. Mike Cox survived that in 2002 against Gary Peters.

There's also two state rep districts. The 29th and 51st. I'll post those results as I see them. My gut tells me we'll split those districts with the 29th going dem and the 51st staying with us. That's just a gut feeling.

Locally, there's a fire millage as well.

-----------------------------------
8:40

So far:

6%in
Santorum up 40-38% Statewide

Oakland County: (19 precincts in)
Romney - 3577
Santorum - 2623

Largely Waterford, Hazel Park, partial reports of W Bloomfield and Milford.

State Rep 29th
Bob Gray - 169
Tim Gremiel - 145

------------------------
9:00

I think Romney's going to take this.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/county/map/r/mi - CNN Map

He's doing much better up north than I expected and doing very well in South Macomb which I didn't expect (North is closer). Low turnout skews the results to absentees and seniors. That's Romney's ace in the hole.

---------------------
9:19 - Joe Graves is up.

STATE LEGISLATURE 51ST DISTRICT
VOTE FOR 1
(WITH 7 OF 52 PRECINCTS COUNTED 13.46%)
Joseph Graves . . . . . . . . . 1,459 51.21
Steven M. Losey . . . . . . . . 1,244 43.66
Cary Neuville-Justice . . . . . . 127 4.46
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 19 .67
Total . . . . . . . . . 2,849
Over Votes . . . . . . . . . 3
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 53

Tim Griemel is up 2-1 over Bob Gray in the 29th.

Overall, Mitt up 41-38 with 31% in. I'll start guessing Congressional districts when more results are in.

-------------------
10PM
Statewide - Romney up 40-36%. They haven't called it, but Romney will win.

The Secretary of State also made a mistake using OLD districts for reporting by district. It's the NEW districts that matter.

District 1 - Close. Northern Lower is unexpectedly (to me) going for Romney with the UP going for Santorum.

District 2 - Santorum

District 3 - Close. Calhoun is split with Romney up less than 1%. Barry/Ionia heavily Santorum

District 4 - I think Santorum will take this one.

District 5 - Close.

District 6 - Santorum

District 7 - Close.

Districts 8-14 - Romney

If Santorum hangs on to 3, 5, and 7, it will be 16-14 Romney in delegates.

Also, Tim Gremiel is going to take the 29th district, and Joe Graves is up 800 votes in the 51st.

------------------
11PM
Howell fire millage passes easily.

Joe Graves and Tim Gremiel are the winners for their state rep races. Graves was in particular good news on an otherwise bad news day for conservatives.

The media made it official and called it for Romney. I was looking closely at Macomb results. Absentees were the key. Election Day starts 30 days before the actual election day.

I'll get into the number crunching for congressional district tomorrow.

Iowa results and quick analysis

I'm a little surprised at the results coming in. This is the first actual poll that counts. New Hampshire is next January 10th, followed by South Carolina on January 21st and Florida on January 31st.

The Iowa caucuses count. They count more for momentum than anything else, but unlike the phone polls, these are binding and have a larger sample size. These are the actual votes.

There IS no recount. The result with 99% in is a likely very narrow victory for Mitt Romney. I say likely, because who knows what that 1% does.

1st - Mitt Romney - 25% - 30,015
2nd - Rick Santorum - 25% - 30,007
3rd - Ron Paul - 22% - 26,219
4th - Newt Gingrich - 14% - 16,251
5th - Rick Perry - 11% - 12,604
6th - Michele Bachmann - 5% - 6,073
7th - Jon Huntsman - Less than 1% - 745
8th - Herman Cain - Less than 1% - 58

Rick Santorum's results surprised me, and I'll admit a major bias against his chances due to 2006. He had very little money, but he outworked most candidates in Iowa. He's legitimate now in this election. The question is if he can sustain it going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Mitt Romney is going to go after him. That's what sunk Gingrich and dropped him to 4th. It may have an impact on Ron Paul as well.

Big winners:

1. Santorum - His late surge put him in the picture. He has a chance to be the "anti-Romney" candidate at the time it counts. He did this with almost no money. Eight votes away, and if there was a recount, could have made this even more interesting.

2. Romney - He wasn't contesting Iowa until late. He didn't bomb here. He didn't need to win here. New Hampshire is where he needs to win to stay around. His win here helps.

3. Paul - He's going to be a pain in the arse to the elites. Again. This year.

As for others, that doesn't mean they lost a chance for the nomination, but at best, they are going to have to fight against national momentum from Iowa with the next primary/caucuses. Some like Giuliani (2008) don't recover. At worst, they're done because of this. Those that lost here have added pressure in New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as Florida.

The question is what happens next? Do the rest of them stay in, and if so, for how long? Perry said he's going to go back to Texas and think about the results and make a further decision.

Once again, Romney can't break that 30% barrier, although neither can anyone else. He wasn't expected to really in Iowa, but he's got nearly all of the establishment in his corner, Foxnews in his corner, the pundits in his corner, and most of all elite level of organization and monetary support. On paper, he should run away with this. This is the "strong" candidate. This is the guy who is supposed to supposedly beat Obama. He's now essentially tied another candidate out of nowhere, and was viewed as dead in the water. Every time a candidate implodes, another one rises in the polls against Romney. This time it is Santorum. Out of nowhere, he almost beats Romney. If your campaign is based on being "the electable" one, you better do what Bush did in 2000 after the early scare and not be John McCain in 2008.

This is going to possibly be a long primary season, especially if it narrows into a three way fight with three different bases. If Santorum can solidify himself as THE one single "anti-Romney" candidate who isn't Ron Paul, it will be an interesting primary, and there will be no "inevitable" nominee, regardless of the wishes of the establishment. Romney will have to at best, earn this. That's good. That's why we have primaries.

On the same note, for all the folks against Romney, nobody there has caught on. I wonder if Pawlenty wishes he did not drop out.

As for Santorum, my concern with him is that he got trounced in 2006 by 18% to Bob Casey Jr. He went too native and Virginia instead of Suburban Pittsburgh and it cost him. That's weakness, and a big one. However, he also won elections he had no business winning on paper. He won a Pittsburgh area district in 1990 which was democrat for 12 years, and survived redistricting. In 1994, his district went democrat by 10% to Mike Doyle (still in Congress) when he won a US Senate seat (easier than his congressional district) in an upset over an incumbent democrat. He won re-election in 2000. He's won tough elections in the past as well as lost. However, he's also an ex-senator, and we know how many US Senators have become presidents. Harding, Obama, Kennedy, Nixon, LBJ, Harrison, and Andrew Johnson are the only ones in the modern political system post 1860.

New Hampshire's next. Romney needs to probably run away with this one in his backyard. If not, he's in big trouble. Santorum needs to at least place here in less friendly territory for him as New Hampshire has a bit of a libertarian and paleo conservative streak. Ron Paul could surprise a lot of people here.

South Carolina is unfriendly to Romney in the primary so there isn't high expectations for him there. Santorum will have to do well there or Romney will probably win the entire thing Snyder style due to split votes. If Romney wins here, I think he's got it.

The actual race has begun. So far the official standings are:

Romney - 13 Delegates
Santorum - 12 Delegates
Rest - 0

County Results and early Paul Scott results.

Some results are in.

Howell will be making some changes.
Mayor:
Phil Campbell - 669
Geri Moen - Incumbent - 499

Council:
Al Schlittler - quasi incumbent - 749
Doug Heins - 716
Steve Manor - incumbent - 615
Victoria Hertich - 454
Daria Devantier - 420

I'm not surprised by this. Joe Hune isn't as popular in the City of Howell as he is in Fowlerville. He's rather disliked by many of the establishment there. Joe still defeated Paul Rogers in the City of Howell in the primary. That was an opening set for challengers to the city government. Streetscape and its tax increase were the big issues there.

With that, I think one strategy backfired severely. Right before the election, the old boys/girls club circled the wagons. They came out with a letter of four former mayors (including Paul Rogers) backing the incumbents on the council and their favored challenger (Devantier). I think that hurt them bad and reinforced the status quo, streetscapes, and the like. Schlittler led the council votes, but was viewed as a moderate as a recent appointee and was supported by folks on both sides. Heins was a challenger and ran strong. Manor was the long term incumbent who survived. Moen was caught offguard by a strong challenger. Campbell worked extremely hard on this campaign and won.

In Brighton, all the incumbents win, as expected.

The millages in Green Oak are passing easily, as I expect. 2-1 margin+ for both of them. I also think this is helping the MEA/BEA in the Brighton School Board races. Minert (unofficially endorsed) will win, and Trombley started to pull away when Green Oak started reporting. What was a near tie is now a 190 vote deficit with six precincts to go. That's a small lead, except that the Green Oak precincts in so far both had major leads for Trombley over Rassel. Fiani is in the pack and won't catch Trombley.

Paul Scott's recall can go either way. Currently he's up 171 votes with 86% in.
Yes to Recall - 10,851
No to MEA - 11,022

Five precincts to report. I hope it's not Mundy Township that has yet to report. That's the roughest part of Paul's district.

It's going to be a close one tonight.

A Closer Look at Northern Michigan's results

A closer look at Northern Michigan results

Until I get a close look at all of the municipalities themselves, I can’t get a real good read on most of the races. One of the exceptions is in Northern Michigan (called Up North locally) because of its rural character.

While the Republicans massacred the democrats this year throughout the country, no where was it more of a route than Up North. People who don’t know Michigan politics assume that because North Michigan is mostly rural, it is republican. No. It varies. The Lake Michigan coast in the Lower Peninsula are largely Gerry Ford types (With Traverse City itself leaning democrat, not as much as its reputation). The Northern Lower interior is very Conservative and mostly Republican north of Roscommon (Energy, middle class retirees) The Sunrise coast is a swing area (with Alpena leaning democrat) with its social conservative and labor influence. Roscommon Southeast to Northern Bay County is labor influenced (Corrections, retirees) and leans conservative democrat. The Western UP leans slightly democrat outside of Houghton area. The Eastern UP leans slightly Republican. The Marquette area is strongly democrat. The Menominee/Escanaba area swings with a slight democrat lean.

Not this time. Marquette, Alger, and Gogebic County (with Chippewa for McDowell only) are the only democrat counties this time in Northern Michigan. Why is this important statewide when the area has maybe 10% of the population? The reason is the number of normally competitive seats Up North. A plurality of our pickups were up North. Some of our best defenses were also up north. Ten seats there are realistically winnable by either party. That’s enough to flip control of either chambers in most years.

The UP results were most surprising to me. The yellow dogs are no more. They are either full ticketsplitters on the whole ticket or are now part of the Republican base. It is too early to consider them the base. It will take at least 8-10 years for that determination to happen. They gave the GOP a chance. Don’t blow it. What shocked me is that we took five UP based seats from the democrats. MI-01 wasn’t a surprise except for the margin. McDowell’s old seat was a matter of time, but largely due to Emmet County being a base county. Nerat’s seat was winnable. The old Lahti/Rich Brown was until recently what I call good enough to lose. It’s enough to suck you into thinking we’ll win, but was out of reach. Then there’s what is now Casperson’s win against the 2nd strongest democrat in the UP not named Stupak. That was a base seat for the democrats. The UP minus two Republican leaning counties.

The First District (MI-01) set the tale of the day. Dr. Dan Benishek beat McDowell by 10%. I thought this would be about 3%.

	Dan	Gary	Glenn	Other 3rd	TOTAL
COUNTY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson		BY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson	3rd
	REP	DEM	NPA		COUNTY
ALCONA	2,603	1,433	177	291	4,504	57.79%	31.82%	3.93%	6.46%
ALGER	1,749	1,761	113	148	3,771	46.38%	46.70%	3.00%	3.92%
ALPENA	5,569	3,794	320	343	10,026	55.55%	37.84%	3.19%	3.42%
ANTRIM	5,589	3,491	378	376	9,834	56.83%	35.50%	3.84%	3.82%
ARENAC	2,621	2,079	308	325	5,333	49.15%	38.98%	5.78%	6.09%
BARAGA	1,382	1,124	65	82	2,653	52.09%	42.37%	2.45%	3.09%
BAY	5,700	4,780	335	555	11,370	50.13%	42.04%	2.95%	4.88%
CHARLEVOIX	5,752	3,767	299	374	10,192	56.44%	36.96%	2.93%	3.67%
CHEBOYGAN	5,502	3,905	254	351	10,012	54.95%	39.00%	2.54%	3.51%
CHIPPEWA	5,477	5,775	221	293	11,766	46.55%	49.08%	1.88%	2.49%
CRAWFORD	2,547	1,805	178	291	4,821	52.83%	37.44%	3.69%	6.04%
DELTA	6,779	5,730	255	365	13,129	51.63%	43.64%	1.94%	2.78%
DICKINSON	5,577	3,421	220	218	9,436	59.10%	36.25%	2.33%	2.31%
EMMET	7,397	5,040	328	374	13,139	56.30%	38.36%	2.50%	2.85%
GLADWIN	4,520	3,439	314	527	8,800	51.36%	39.08%	3.57%	5.99%
GOGEBIC	2,313	2,759	107	144	5,323	43.45%	51.83%	2.01%	2.71%
HOUGHTON	6,628	4,926	200	407	12,161	54.50%	40.51%	1.64%	3.35%
IOSCO	4,611	3,539	696	697	9,543	48.32%	37.08%	7.29%	7.30%
IRON	2,432	1,894	102	131	4,559	53.35%	41.54%	2.24%	2.87%
KEWEENAW	641	412	24	30	1,107	57.90%	37.22%	2.17%	2.71%
LUCE	1,017	808	63	61	1,949	52.18%	41.46%	3.23%	3.13%
MACKINAC	2,351	2,200	0	135	4,686	50.17%	46.95%	0.00%	2.88%
MARQUETTE	9,301	11,181	539	727	21,748	42.77%	51.41%	2.48%	3.34%
MENOMINEE	3,823	2,999	107	209	7,138	53.56%	42.01%	1.50%	2.93%
MONTMORENCY	2,103	1,314	213	199	3,829	54.92%	34.32%	5.56%	5.20%
OGEMAW	3,461	2,592	1,045	327	7,425	46.61%	34.91%	14.07%	4.40%
ONTONAGON	1,455	1,278	63	94	2,890	50.35%	44.22%	2.18%	3.25%
OSCODA	1,520	946	436	171	3,073	49.46%	30.78%	14.19%	5.56%
OTSEGO	5,133	2,995	224	288	8,640	59.41%	34.66%	2.59%	3.33%
PRESQUE ISLE	2,914	2,203	136	198	5,451	53.46%	40.41%	2.49%	3.63%
SCHOOLCRAFT	1,587	1,423	51	112	3,173	50.02%	44.85%	1.61%	3.53%
	Dan	Gary	Glenn		TOTAL
COUNTY	Benishek	McDowell	Wilson		BY
	REP	DEM	NPA		COUNTY
Totals	120,054	94,813	7,771	8843	231,481	51.86%	40.96%	3.36%	3.82%

One other lesson here is the futility of 3rd party candidates to be anything more than a protest vote. Glenn Wilson was supposed to be a very strong 3rd party candidate. He didn’t get a majority of the 3rd party vote (did get plurality). 3rd party votes were high, but totaled slightly over 7%. In order for 3rd party votes to be a threat, it must reach 30%. Wilson was held under 4% despite some democrats openly campaigning for him with conservatives. This race proves that like it or not, it’s a two party system with some protest votes. If you are looking to change things, the only to do it is through the two party system.

I said that Dr Dan had to do better than normal in his home area (Western UP), the old Stupak home base, and the Sunrise coast to win. That’s to offset McDowell’s district advantage in the district in the Eastern UP and Emmet County, which is a GOP base county he’s won in the past. McDowell won Marquette County, Alger County, and Gogebic County where just about any democrat can win. He won Chippewa County, but lost Mackinac County. He was also demolished on the sunrise coast. This was an easiser than expected win for Dr Dan.

The big surprise was the 38th District which is solidly democrat downticket……until now. Former State Rep Tom Casperson beat who I expected to be a very strong Western UP candidate in Mike Lahti for the ticket. It wasn’t close either. Casperson won everywhere except Marquette and Gogebic Counties. Even the western UP went for Casperson. Like Dr Dan’s race, it was a 10 point win.

	Tom	Michael	TOTAL
COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti
02 ALGER	2,120	1,634	3,754	56.47%	43.53%
07 BARAGA	1,430	1,230	2,660	53.76%	46.24%
21 DELTA	8,300	4,868	13,168	63.03%	36.97%
22 DICKINSON	6,229	3,152	9,381	66.40%	33.60%
27 GOGEBIC	2,406	2,927	5,333	45.12%	54.88%
31 HOUGHTON	6,385	5,862	12,247	52.14%	47.86%
36 IRON	2,507	2,026	4,533	55.31%	44.69%
42 KEWEENAW	605	513	1,118	54.11%	45.89%
48 LUCE	1,178	741	1,919	61.39%	38.61%
52 MARQUETTE	10,580	11,099	21,679	48.80%	51.20%
55 MENOMINEE	4,669	2,607	7,276	64.17%	35.83%
66 ONTONAGON	1,552	1,382	2,934	52.90%	47.10%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,907	1,280	3,187	59.84%	40.16%
	Tom	Michael	TOTAL
COUNTY	Casperson	Lahti	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	49,868	39,321	89,189	55.91%	44.09%

	John	Andy	TOTAL
COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann
01 ALCONA	2,767	1,744	4,511	61.34%	38.66%
04 ALPENA	5,259	4,750	10,009	52.54%	47.46%
20 CRAWFORD	2,824	1,843	4,667	60.51%	39.49%
26 GLADWIN	5,455	3,326	8,781	62.12%	37.88%
35 IOSCO	5,641	3,847	9,488	59.45%	40.55%
56 MIDLAND	20,245	8,301	28,546	70.92%	29.08%
60 MONTMORENCY	2,356	1,457	3,813	61.79%	38.21%
65 OGEMAW	4,434	2,892	7,326	60.52%	39.48%
68 OSCODA	1,894	1,140	3,034	62.43%	37.57%
69 OTSEGO	5,659	2,854	8,513	66.47%	33.53%
	John	Andy	TOTAL
COUNTY	Moolenaar	Neumann	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	56,534	32,154	88,688	63.74%	36.26%

The 36th district is usually competitive when open, but not even close this year. Moolenaar won almost 2-1 and won every county, even Andy Neumann’s home county, Alpena.

The 110th was usually good enough to lose. Houghton tilts Republican sometimes, but Iron and Gogebic usually combine to offset any possible advantage. Not this time. 11pt victory. I’m not sure when the last time the GOP won the district. They came close in 2000.

	Matt	Scott	TOTAL
COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda
07 BARAGA	1,550	1,090	2,640	58.71%	41.29%
27 GOGEBIC	2,572	2,711	5,283	48.68%	51.32%
31 HOUGHTON	7,009	5,157	12,166	57.61%	42.39%
36 IRON	2,389	2,028	4,417	54.09%	45.91%
42 KEWEENAW	632	477	1,109	56.99%	43.01%
52 MARQUETTE	148	174	322	45.96%	54.04%
66 ONTONAGON	1,731	1,177	2,908	59.53%	40.47%
	Matt	Scott	TOTAL
COUNTY	Huuki	Dianda	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	16,031	12,814	28,845	55.58%	44.42%

108th was starting to be a swing district, but the dems took it back recently when Casperson ran for Congress. Judy Nerat took the open seat. I thought this could be competitive, but I did not expect a 20 pt loss.

108th	Ed	Judy	TOTAL
COUNTY	McBroom	Nerat	BY	McBroom	Nerat
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
21 DELTA	7,431	5,571	13,002	57.15%	42.85%
22 DICKINSON	6,341	3,038	9,379	67.61%	32.39%
55 MENOMINEE	3,962	3,263	7,225	54.84%	45.16%
	Ed	Judy	TOTAL
COUNTY	McBroom	Nerat	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	17,734	11,872	29,606	59.90%	40.10%

I expected the 107th to flip, but not a 2-1 margin.

107th	Frank	Richard	TOTAL
COUNTY	Foster	Timmer	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Foster	Timmer
16 CHEBOYGAN	1,181	500	1,681	70.26%	29.74%
17 CHIPPEWA	6,397	5,079	11,476	55.74%	44.26%
24 EMMET	8,852	4,070	12,922	68.50%	31.50%
49 MACKINAC	2,907	1,701	4,608	63.09%	36.91%
	Frank	Richard	TOTAL
COUNTY	Foster	Timmer	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,337	11,350	30,687	63.01%	36.99%

The 106th was a shock to me. It was another district which was “good enough to lose.” Alpena and Presque Isle counties are usually solidly democrat down ticket. Peter Pettalia won Alpena by 14pts which makes this a 20pt win. Andy Neumann and Matt Gillard had this district for years.

106th	Peter	Casey	Nicholas	TOTAL
COUNTY	Pettalia	Viegelahn	Hein	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	NPA	COUNTY	Pettalia	Casey	Hein
01 ALCONA	2,866	1,438	178	4,482	63.94%	32.08%	3.97%
04 ALPENA	5,563	4,151	269	9,983	55.72%	41.58%	2.69%
20 CRAWFORD	2,923	1,528	255	4,706	62.11%	32.47%	5.42%
60 MONTMORENCY	2,359	1,227	195	3,781	62.39%	32.45%	5.16%
68 OSCODA	1,896	906	198	3,000	63.20%	30.20%	6.60%
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,489	2,494	403	5,386	46.21%	46.31%	7.48%
	Peter	Casey	Nicholas	TOTAL
COUNTY	Pettalia	Viegelahn	Hein	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	NPA	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	18,096	11,744	1,498	31,338	57.74%	37.48%	4.78%

The 103rd district tilts slightly republican at the top of the ticket, but they love the Sheltrowns, at least Dale and Joel. Van couldn’t win this seat however. I didn’t expect this to be a 25pt win, nor every county going republican here.

	Bruce	Van	TOTAL
COUNTY	Rendon	Sheltrown	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Rendon	Dem
35 IOSCO	5,516	3,986	9,502	58.05%	41.95%
57 MISSAUKEE	4,006	1,198	5,204	76.98%	23.02%
65 OGEMAW	4,348	3,112	7,460	58.28%	41.72%
72 ROSCOMMON	6,060	3,662	9,722	62.33%	37.67%
	Bruce	Van	TOTAL
COUNTY	Rendon	Sheltrown	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,930	11,958	31,888	62.50%	37.50%

The 101st. District nearly flipped in 2006, and did flip in 2008. Both times, Dan Scripps was the democrat. He lost after one term in a 2008 rematch. This was close, but the top of the ticket likely carried Ray Franz past the finish line, just as Obama carried Scripps.

	Ray	Dan	TOTAL
COUNTY	Franz	Scripps	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY	Franz	Scripps
10 BENZIE	3,791	3,704	7,495	50.58%	49.42%
45 LEELANAU	5,881	5,433	11,314	51.98%	48.02%
51 MANISTEE	4,483	4,576	9,059	49.49%	50.51%
53 MASON	5,231	4,781	10,012	52.25%	47.75%
	Ray	Dan	TOTAL
COUNTY	Franz	Scripps	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	19,386	18,494	37,880	51.18%	48.82%

The 97th was expected to be a tough defense. Jennifer Elkins won in 2002 for the dems. She lost to Tim Moore who won three terms and left it open. This wasn’t close. Every county is competitive here most years, not this one.

	Joel	Mark	Brandon	TOTAL
COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Dickhausen	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	LIB	COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Lib
06 ARENAC	2,877	1,899	550	5,326	54.02%	35.66%	10.33%
09 BAY	2,893	2,343	306	5,542	52.20%	42.28%	5.52%
18 CLARE	5,777	3,179	267	9,223	62.64%	34.47%	2.89%
26 GLADWIN	5,272	3,236	269	8,777	60.07%	36.87%	3.06%
	Joel	Mark	Brandon	TOTAL
COUNTY	Johnson	Lightfoot	Dickhausen	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	LIB	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	16,819	10,657	1,392	28,868	58.26%	36.92%	4.82%

It was a massacre, and is a big reason why the house flipped and the senate stayed in GOP was because of the results up north.