Politico has a good map, mostly by county. The bad news is that we didn't take the senate. I didn't think we could run the table. The races that surprised me to a degree were West Virgnia and Nevada. Reid successfully localized his race like he did against Ensign years ago. As sucky as he is, better him than Schumer. Washington State and Colorado will be close and are undecided. Dems held on as expected in California, Oregon, Connecticut, Delaware, New York. The big win was Florida where Charlie Crist can not break 30% after his party switch. Rubio won the three way race big with 49%. A few other races are yet to be decided.
I'm going to concentrate on the Michigan races. I'll get into counties later, but it's a clean sweep statewide. Governor, AG, Secretary of State, Supreme Court, and most if not all of the trustees.
MI-01 - Dan Benishek picked up the old Stupak seat through hard work. McDowell won Alger, Chippewa, Gogebic, and Marquette counties. That's it. Nothing south of the bridge, and all the key areas went for Benishek except Chippewa County, home base for McDowell. I'll post more on this later.
MI-3 - Amash wins. Not even close.
MI-5 - I wondered about this one. John Kupiec didn't win, but gave Kildee his toughest run since 94. With Dr Rob Steele's polling, I wondered if Kupiec also had a shot. This was closer than expected, and Kupiec won Tuscola County by a big margin and nearly won his part of Bay County. In the end, too much Flint.
MI-07 - Tim Walberg defeated the chameleon yesman Mark Schauer. He won everywhere but Calhoun and Eaton Counties, but his losses in Calhoun were much less than 08.
MI-09 - It looks like Peters and his millions somehow survives. That one sucks. Rocky is a good guy.
MI-15 - Dingell survives. Dr Rob Steel took Monroe County in a big way, but Ann Arbor is tough to overcome. I haven't seen the Wayne County numbers yet here.
State Senate districts:
1. D6 - Glenn Anderson gets a big win to cut the dems losses.
2. D7 - Patrick Colbeck wins one of the toughest defenses for the GOP. Bruce Patterson's seat in Wayne County.
3. D10 - Tory Rocca picks up Mickey Switalski's State Senate seat in Macomb County. That one is somewhat surprising considering Roseville. +1 GOP
4. D13 - John Pappageorge saves one of the other toughest defenses for the GOP in Oakland County.
5. D17 - Randy Richardville easily wins a not so easy to win defense in his Monroe County based seat.
6. D20 - Tonya Schuitmaker wins a key defense based in Kalamazoo County
7. D26 - Big pickup. Dave Robertson takes the Cherry seat. (John and Deb). +2GOP
8. D29 - Dave Hildenbrand wins one of our toughest defenses.
9. D31 - Mike Green makes a big comeback by taking the Bay County/Thumb seat by a wide margin. I'm not shocked at Green's win, but I'm shocked by the margin. +3GOP
10. D32 - Dr. Roger Kahn wins a tough Saginaw County defense.
11. D34 - Goeff Hansen gets a 20pt win in a Muskegon County based district. That's not supposed to happen. It did.
12. D36 - John Moolenaar shows how North Michigan feels about democrats these days. The conservative independents ripped the dems worse than they did the GOP in 2006.
13. D37 - Tom Casperson won the Joe Mack seat in the UP. The GOP has no chance at a UP wide seat that doesn't have Mackinac or Chippewa County. That's now false. I don't know when the GOP last held this seat. +04GOP
----------------------------
State House
1. D1 - Dems hold this one. Tim Bledsoe survived his Grosse Pointe/Detroit seat.
2. D13 - Downriver seat was within 10% for the dems. That means trouble. It should be 20%+
3. D15 - Dearborn starting to become competitive again? The margin was within 10% here too.
4. D19 - Livonia. Usually closer. John Walsh destroyed out his opponent 2-1.
5. D20 - Northwest Wayne County - Kurt Heise takes the open Corriveau seat. +1GOP
6. D21 - Dian Slavens survives barely. Good defense for the dems who can probably thank demographics in Van Buren Township for the save.
7. D23 - South Downriver - Pat Sommerville defeats incumbent Deb Kennedy. +2GOP
8. D24 - St Clair Shores/Harrison Twp - Sarah Roberts loses as incumbent. The winner is Anthony Forlini. +3GOP
9. D25 - Jon Switalski barely survives his North Warren seat.
10. D26 - Jim Townsend has a fairly close win for the dems, in Royal Oak of all place. That shouldn't be close.
11. D30 - The dems were supposed to win this. They didn't. Jeff Farrington takes Rocca's old seat.
12. D31 - This one hurt. Dan Tollis gave it a good run, but couldn't take the Mt Clemens/Clinton Twp seat. Marlyn Lane took the Fred Miller seat.
13. D32 - Andrea LaFontaine wins the North Macomb/St Clair County seat. +4 GOP
14. D39 - Likely Recount between Lisa Brown and Lois Shulman in the West Bloomfield seat.
15. D52 - Mark Ouimet wins the Pam Byrnes seat. Thank Snyder for that one. +5GOP
16. D54 - Rick Olson wins the open South Washtenaw/West Monroe seat. The Milosch/Angerer seat comes home. +6GOP
17. D55 - Dale Zorn beats Kate Ebli in the Monroe County seat. +7 GOP
18. D57 - The GOP takes the Lenawaee County seat from the Spades for the first time since it was Tim Walberg's seat. Nancy Jenkins wins it big. +8 GOP
19. D64 - Marty Griffin goes down to Earl Poleski by 19 pts as an incumbent in Jackson County. +9 GOP
20. D65 - Mike Shirkey takes the old Mortimer seat back in Jackson County. +10 GOP
21. D70 - Rick Outman beats Mike Huckleberry in the Greenville/Ionia district. +11 GOP.
22. D75 - Demographics saved the dems in this Grand Rapids seat.
23. D83 - The thumb swung hard against the dems. Paul Muxlow won the Espinoza (who beat him) seat by 20pts. +12 GOP
24. D84 - Kurt Damrow and Terry Brown will probably be in a recount.
25. D91 - Holly Hughes won the open seat in Muskegon County. +13GOP
26. D96 - The dems almost lost the Bay City district. 4pt win.
27. D97 - Joel Johnson won Tim Moore's old seat. Good defense.
28. D99 - Kevin Cotter won the toughest defensive test for the GOP. Mt Pleasant.
29. D101- Dan Scripps won the Obama wave and lost this one. Ray Franz wins his rematch. +14 GOP
30. D103 - The good luck streak of the Sheltrown last name is over. Bruce Rendon wins by 25%. +15 GOP
31. D106 - The Alpena seat is finally back. Peter Pettalia won the open seat. +16 GOP
32. D107 - The Shackleton/McDowell seat swung back. Frank Foster by 26% +17GOP
33. D108 - EdMcBroom beat incumbent Judy Nerat by 20%. The Casperson seat is back. +18GOP
34. D110 - Matt Huuki took the open seat 56-44. This was close before, but I'm not sure the GOP ever had this seat since before the mining industry. +19 GOP.
Great pickups in state. Don't blow it.
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
School Boards. John Conely, Doug Moore, and Mike Moloney are the best picks
One overlooked race in the general election is the school board races. These are downticket and overshadowed by the gubernatorial races. There are some good picks for the Brighton and Howell school board positions which are up for election this year.
For Howell - Doug Moore (endorsed in past from Concerned Taxpayers Group) and Mike Moloney. I'm confident they will do a good job there.
For Brighton - John Conely. With the previous mismanagement the last few years, it's just starting to rebuilt. Conely would be a great replacement for Powers, and can help restore fiscal sanity to the district where I went to school.
Regarding Howell, I had this forwarded to me from a current Howell resident. I knew Moore from back when I was with Concerned Taxpayers Group, and I've met Moloney at a GOP meeting.
---
The Howell school board election is really about whether the teacher
union takes over the school board as they did in Brighton 5 years ago.
Then, Brighton teachers managed to elect Joe Carney and others to
control the school board and, against the wishes of the administration
(superintendent), they approved a teacher union contract that Brighton
couldn't afford. Over 4 years, Brighton went from having a $4 million
rainy day fund to an almost $10 million deficit. They're operating
under a state ordered deficit elimination plan.
To repair the financial damage, Brighton has closed two schools,
increased class sizes and decimated their non-teacher staff. They've
lost almost 10% of enrollment or about 600 kids in 3 years.
The Howell Education Association has the same plans for Howell School District.
In Howell, the district finances have been handled well for the past 4
years and they have a strong financial position. The teachers union
wants to take control of the board by adding to the one person already
there. That's so that the teacher contract negotiations in 2011 will
go their way and they can lock in a long-term agreement that takes
every penny possible from the district. Per the HEA and the MEA, there
is no good reason for a school district to have a funds balance.
With that in mind, we should at least be aware of who the different
candidates are;
Teacher Union Endorsees
Mike Yenshaw
Jan Lobur
Marcus Wilcox
Other Liberals;
Mike & Kim Witt - Kim's sister is a teacher in Howell Public Schools.
Just like Joe Carney in Brighton, it's unlikely Kim or Mike would be
on the side of the district in the teacher union contract negotiations
in 2011. In fact, many teachers and administrators are supporting the
Witts despite the endorsements of Wilcox and Lobur.
Jim Pratt is another liberal though he didn't get the teacher
endorsement and doesn't appear to have much support from the employees
of the district.
Jason Raines - unknown
Pat Howle - well known in the school community,
Mike Moloney - endorsed by the livingston county gop - has taken the
no tax pledge, sees fiscal stability as the platform to build the
district. www.moloneynow.com
Doug Moore - endorsed by livingston county gop - ran before - endorsed
by concerned taxpayers PAC...etc
For Howell - Doug Moore (endorsed in past from Concerned Taxpayers Group) and Mike Moloney. I'm confident they will do a good job there.
For Brighton - John Conely. With the previous mismanagement the last few years, it's just starting to rebuilt. Conely would be a great replacement for Powers, and can help restore fiscal sanity to the district where I went to school.
Regarding Howell, I had this forwarded to me from a current Howell resident. I knew Moore from back when I was with Concerned Taxpayers Group, and I've met Moloney at a GOP meeting.
---
The Howell school board election is really about whether the teacher
union takes over the school board as they did in Brighton 5 years ago.
Then, Brighton teachers managed to elect Joe Carney and others to
control the school board and, against the wishes of the administration
(superintendent), they approved a teacher union contract that Brighton
couldn't afford. Over 4 years, Brighton went from having a $4 million
rainy day fund to an almost $10 million deficit. They're operating
under a state ordered deficit elimination plan.
To repair the financial damage, Brighton has closed two schools,
increased class sizes and decimated their non-teacher staff. They've
lost almost 10% of enrollment or about 600 kids in 3 years.
The Howell Education Association has the same plans for Howell School District.
In Howell, the district finances have been handled well for the past 4
years and they have a strong financial position. The teachers union
wants to take control of the board by adding to the one person already
there. That's so that the teacher contract negotiations in 2011 will
go their way and they can lock in a long-term agreement that takes
every penny possible from the district. Per the HEA and the MEA, there
is no good reason for a school district to have a funds balance.
With that in mind, we should at least be aware of who the different
candidates are;
Teacher Union Endorsees
Mike Yenshaw
Jan Lobur
Marcus Wilcox
Other Liberals;
Mike & Kim Witt - Kim's sister is a teacher in Howell Public Schools.
Just like Joe Carney in Brighton, it's unlikely Kim or Mike would be
on the side of the district in the teacher union contract negotiations
in 2011. In fact, many teachers and administrators are supporting the
Witts despite the endorsements of Wilcox and Lobur.
Jim Pratt is another liberal though he didn't get the teacher
endorsement and doesn't appear to have much support from the employees
of the district.
Jason Raines - unknown
Pat Howle - well known in the school community,
Mike Moloney - endorsed by the livingston county gop - has taken the
no tax pledge, sees fiscal stability as the platform to build the
district. www.moloneynow.com
Doug Moore - endorsed by livingston county gop - ran before - endorsed
by concerned taxpayers PAC...etc
Sunday, September 26, 2010
What's on the ballot - 2010
While most of the hype in even numbered year elections goes to the gubernatorial race, there's plenty of other races that we will be voting on this year. If you are like me and not enthusiastic about taking one for the team in the gubernatorial race, there's others that are well worth our time, and candidates well worth our vote. Don't refuse to show up because of one person.
Supreme Court - THIS is one of the two most important races in 2010. Justice Robert Young is an incumbent of what was at one time considered by the Wall Street Journal the best Supreme Court in the country. Justice Elizabeth Weaver, the weakest member of the court IMO (including the democrats), is not running again, and we can have a major upgrade at that position. Judge Mary Beth Kelly will do a good job for us and deserves our support. DO NOT FORGET this race. The other judicial races are unopposed.
Secretary of State - We have a choice here between Ruth Johnson who has cleaned up corruption in Oakland County, and the leftist Secretary of State project supported by Convicted Criminal and corrupt insider trader George Soros. This is a clear choice. Ruth Johnson or Soros supporter Benson. Ruth Johnson needs to win.
AG - Bill Schuette has a record as a conservative. David Leyton's number one issue is the Obamacare lawsuit. He supports Obamacare.
Village elections. I don't know anything about the candidates here, but the villages of Fowlerville and Pinckney have their local elections. The candidate list of those offices are here.
School Boards are also up in some areas. There are contests in Brighton and Howell. Two openings. I'll try and get more posts on these before the elections as these are contested races.
Brighton:
Randy Swain - She ran in the past.
John Conely - I've seen his signs.
James Watters
Howell:
Patricia Howle
Jan Lobur
Michael Moloney - He's been active campaigning and has been saying the right things on fiscal matters. He deserves a listen.
Doug Moore - He was supported by the Concerned Taxpayer's Group PAC in the past.
James Pratt - Ran in the past. Fiscally liberal and socially conservative. Self pro-claimed "blue dog" democrat and Obama supporter who referred to tea party participants with a certain slur. He still isn't my last choice.
Jason Raines
Marcus Wilcox
Mike and Kim Witt - They are running as a team. Kim's liberal. I don't know about Mike.
Michael Yenshaw - Was appointed on the board and he lost election after the appointment.
Also are the Ballot Proposals:
Proposal 1 is the con-con. This is Pandora's box. I'm voting no, but we better be prepared for it passing.
Proposal 2 is a constitutional amendment relating to certain felons holding public office. I'm voting no. I don't support voting for felons for public officers, but do we need a constitutional amendment for it? I don't usually vote to amend the constitution unless there's a good reason. If we need to amend the constitution to prevent those with felonies regarding dishonesty or breach of public trust holding office, then we have a much deeper problem in this state. If voters are dumb enough to elect George Soros types (convicted of inside trading) or worse, then they deserve what they get. This will probably pass 80-20, but I'll be in the 20.
Marion Township has a 1 mill road millage.
Putnam Township has a fire millage increase. .4695 mills.
Dexter Library (part of Putnam Township?) has a .6925 mill increase.
Downticket is just as important as the top of the ticket, and gets the least amount of attention.
Supreme Court - THIS is one of the two most important races in 2010. Justice Robert Young is an incumbent of what was at one time considered by the Wall Street Journal the best Supreme Court in the country. Justice Elizabeth Weaver, the weakest member of the court IMO (including the democrats), is not running again, and we can have a major upgrade at that position. Judge Mary Beth Kelly will do a good job for us and deserves our support. DO NOT FORGET this race. The other judicial races are unopposed.
Secretary of State - We have a choice here between Ruth Johnson who has cleaned up corruption in Oakland County, and the leftist Secretary of State project supported by Convicted Criminal and corrupt insider trader George Soros. This is a clear choice. Ruth Johnson or Soros supporter Benson. Ruth Johnson needs to win.
AG - Bill Schuette has a record as a conservative. David Leyton's number one issue is the Obamacare lawsuit. He supports Obamacare.
Village elections. I don't know anything about the candidates here, but the villages of Fowlerville and Pinckney have their local elections. The candidate list of those offices are here.
School Boards are also up in some areas. There are contests in Brighton and Howell. Two openings. I'll try and get more posts on these before the elections as these are contested races.
Brighton:
Randy Swain - She ran in the past.
John Conely - I've seen his signs.
James Watters
Howell:
Patricia Howle
Jan Lobur
Michael Moloney - He's been active campaigning and has been saying the right things on fiscal matters. He deserves a listen.
Doug Moore - He was supported by the Concerned Taxpayer's Group PAC in the past.
James Pratt - Ran in the past. Fiscally liberal and socially conservative. Self pro-claimed "blue dog" democrat and Obama supporter who referred to tea party participants with a certain slur. He still isn't my last choice.
Jason Raines
Marcus Wilcox
Mike and Kim Witt - They are running as a team. Kim's liberal. I don't know about Mike.
Michael Yenshaw - Was appointed on the board and he lost election after the appointment.
Also are the Ballot Proposals:
Proposal 1 is the con-con. This is Pandora's box. I'm voting no, but we better be prepared for it passing.
Proposal 2 is a constitutional amendment relating to certain felons holding public office. I'm voting no. I don't support voting for felons for public officers, but do we need a constitutional amendment for it? I don't usually vote to amend the constitution unless there's a good reason. If we need to amend the constitution to prevent those with felonies regarding dishonesty or breach of public trust holding office, then we have a much deeper problem in this state. If voters are dumb enough to elect George Soros types (convicted of inside trading) or worse, then they deserve what they get. This will probably pass 80-20, but I'll be in the 20.
Marion Township has a 1 mill road millage.
Putnam Township has a fire millage increase. .4695 mills.
Dexter Library (part of Putnam Township?) has a .6925 mill increase.
Downticket is just as important as the top of the ticket, and gets the least amount of attention.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Primary recap 2010
One thing I think Michigan needs to consider is a rule like the South has on runoffs. In some state's, the cutoff is 40%. In others it is 50%. A race where any candidate does not get the cutoff number will have a runoff of the top two candidates. That would have likely avoided a Snyder win.
I'll get to the gubernatorial race in my next post. It's title will say my thoughts loud and clear. I'll vote for our Secretary of State nominee. I'll vote for either Mike Bishop or Bill Schuette. I'll vote for Justice Young. I'll vote for Joe Hune. I'll vote for Mike and Bill Rogers. I'm undecided on the gubernatorial race.
Some of the Primary Races are as follows.
Congress:
The first district primary between Jason Allen and Dan Benishek will probably go to a recount. I'll have more on this later when I update the congressional districts. Very interesting results by geography.
Bill Huizenga presumably wins the 2nd district in a close race against former NFL player Jay Riemersma.
Libertarian leaning Justin Amash cleaned up the 3rd district in a race not as close as expected.
Dale Kildee won his race easily in the 5th. John Kupiec edged out Rick Wilson for the Republican nomination. Wilson won Tuscola and Bay County. Kupiec won Genesee and Saginaw.
Fred Upton had a tougher than expected win over Jack Hoogendyk in the primary. Jack gave Upton his toughest primary challenge yet.
Tim Walberg has a rematch with Mark Schauer in the 7th.
In the 8th, Kande Ngalamulume beat write-in candidate Lance Enderle.
In the 9th, Rocky Raczkowski will face Gary Peters
In the 12th, Sander Levin stomped Mickey Switalski in what I expected to be a closer race.
In the 13th, Carolyn Kilpatrick was defeated by St Senator Hansen Clarke.
In the 14th, Don Ukrainec will face John Conyers
In the 15th, John Dingell will be facing Dr. Rob Steele.
Livingston County:
In the State Senate 22nd District, Joe Hune won with 71.52% of the vote. Paul Rogers got 28.28%
For commissioners:
Surprisingly it was close in the 1st district primary. Nancy Hill came within 22 votes of defeating Maggie Jones. 1396-1374.
Dave Domas in the 3rd easily survived his challenge from Charlie Aberasturi. 2642-859
In the 5th, Jay Drick defeated Sue Dolato by 122 votes. 1091-879-419.
The millage and bond renewals passed, but the new ones failed across the board.
I'll get to the gubernatorial race in my next post. It's title will say my thoughts loud and clear. I'll vote for our Secretary of State nominee. I'll vote for either Mike Bishop or Bill Schuette. I'll vote for Justice Young. I'll vote for Joe Hune. I'll vote for Mike and Bill Rogers. I'm undecided on the gubernatorial race.
Some of the Primary Races are as follows.
Congress:
The first district primary between Jason Allen and Dan Benishek will probably go to a recount. I'll have more on this later when I update the congressional districts. Very interesting results by geography.
Bill Huizenga presumably wins the 2nd district in a close race against former NFL player Jay Riemersma.
Libertarian leaning Justin Amash cleaned up the 3rd district in a race not as close as expected.
Dale Kildee won his race easily in the 5th. John Kupiec edged out Rick Wilson for the Republican nomination. Wilson won Tuscola and Bay County. Kupiec won Genesee and Saginaw.
Fred Upton had a tougher than expected win over Jack Hoogendyk in the primary. Jack gave Upton his toughest primary challenge yet.
Tim Walberg has a rematch with Mark Schauer in the 7th.
In the 8th, Kande Ngalamulume beat write-in candidate Lance Enderle.
In the 9th, Rocky Raczkowski will face Gary Peters
In the 12th, Sander Levin stomped Mickey Switalski in what I expected to be a closer race.
In the 13th, Carolyn Kilpatrick was defeated by St Senator Hansen Clarke.
In the 14th, Don Ukrainec will face John Conyers
In the 15th, John Dingell will be facing Dr. Rob Steele.
Livingston County:
In the State Senate 22nd District, Joe Hune won with 71.52% of the vote. Paul Rogers got 28.28%
For commissioners:
Surprisingly it was close in the 1st district primary. Nancy Hill came within 22 votes of defeating Maggie Jones. 1396-1374.
Dave Domas in the 3rd easily survived his challenge from Charlie Aberasturi. 2642-859
In the 5th, Jay Drick defeated Sue Dolato by 122 votes. 1091-879-419.
The millage and bond renewals passed, but the new ones failed across the board.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Last minute primary stuff
The biggest day in elections is Tuesday. That's when most of the decisions will be made.
Most of the hype has been focused on the gubernatorial race and for good reason. I'm going to make some quick comments on some of the other races as well. These don't cover all of them.
Congress:
District 1 - I met Benishek and Allen both once. I don't know them. Knowing what I know about the district with family there and spending time up there, North Michigan has a different kind of politics. I think it takes a Yooper to win the district. If Allen wins the primary, I hope I'm wrong.
District 2 - I really haven't followed this one at all.
District 3 - A three way race mostly between Hardiman, Amash, and Heacock. Amash is the libertarian-republican. Hardiman's from Grand Rapids/Kentwood. Heacock is more suburban. This will be an interesting battle, and have learned to expect almost anything out of Kent County.
District 5 - Jack Hoogendyk is challenging Fred Upton in the primary. This is a longshot, but incumbents have gone down a few times this year. Upton's survived challenges before. Jack would be a fiscal voice of sanity in DC and would get my vote.
District 7 - Three way primary between Tim Walberg, Brian Rooney, and Marvin Carlson. Tim Walberg is a good guy and solid conservative. He was caught offguard a bit in 2008 and I don't think that will happen this time. He voted against TARP twice instead of taking the easy way out and has a strong conservative record.
District 8 - The democrats have an interesting primary here. Kande what's his name couldn't handle Michigan style adversity and when the going got tough, he hit the road running back to Philly where things are less tough. His name's still on the ballot. Lance Enderle is running a write in campaign trying to beat Kande the ghost in the primary. Here's another reason for the democrats to stay in your own primary (and out of ours) along with the governor's race.
District 9 - Mostly a two way battle between Rocky Raczkowski and Paul Welday. I've known Rocky for years and he's a good guy and solid conservative with a history of winning tough races for state rep in Farmington Hills. After the 2002 loss against Carl Levin, he was called back up to service and served overseas. He's back and running in the 9th. Paul Welday was Joe Knollenberg's chief of staff. I met him a couple of times. Nice guy, but I think Rocky can upset Gary Peters. He's won tough elections in the past.
State Senate:
11th District....uhhh. No comment except that I hope the infighting doesn't cost us in November there. That is all.
18th District - Gary Wellings is the owner of a local Whitmore Lake based paper called The Courant which covers Southern Livingston and Northern Washtenaw Counties. I wrote a couple of articles for the Courant in the past and worked with Gary. He's a good guy and worthy of your support.
22nd District - I've known Joe Hune for years. The best thing about Joe as a senator is that he doesn't care what the self proclaimed important people in Lansing think. Joe doesn't care if you have a title. If he thinks it's right, he'll support it. If not, he won't. Backbone is missing in Lansing, and Joe has the backbone to stand up to pressure.
24th District - Rick Jones has been a good guy to gun owners for years, before it wasn't cool to be pro-gun.
26th District - In a close call, Dave Robertson. This is a swing district that doesn't have anyone named Cherry running this time. Robertson can pick off crossover votes in Genesee County.
31st District - Mike Green was the author of the bill to allow Michigan become a shall-issue state. He also won a district now represented by a democrat. He can flip the 50/50 district now that Jim Barcia (Who I wish ran against Dale Kildee in the primary) has been termed out.
State House:
30th District - I met Michael Shallal on the campaign trials. I meet a lot of candidates and not all of them are impressive. He's a good guy and solid conservative who just got back from Iraq. What impressed me from a candidate standpoint is his organization skills. The Rocca family has held the seat for over 20 years. Bill Ballenger predicted this seat to go democrat. I think Michael Shallal has something to say about that. If he wins, I think we're going to keep this seat.
31st District - Dan Tollis is a good guy worthy of our support.
73rd District - Bruce Hawley ran as a democrat in 2008. He's running as a republican in 2010. His campaign finance donation history shows he was a strong democrat supporting Granholm.
105th District - One person I couldn't vote for there is Dennis Lennox over his campaign finance shenanigans as Drain Commissioner. You don't do stuff like that on the county dime.
Oakland County Probate - Kathleen Ryan. I first met many of the Ryans during law school. It's a good family of judges who look at the facts, the law, and make sound and fair decisions based on that. Kate Ryan would be an excellent addition to the bench.
Most of the hype has been focused on the gubernatorial race and for good reason. I'm going to make some quick comments on some of the other races as well. These don't cover all of them.
Congress:
District 1 - I met Benishek and Allen both once. I don't know them. Knowing what I know about the district with family there and spending time up there, North Michigan has a different kind of politics. I think it takes a Yooper to win the district. If Allen wins the primary, I hope I'm wrong.
District 2 - I really haven't followed this one at all.
District 3 - A three way race mostly between Hardiman, Amash, and Heacock. Amash is the libertarian-republican. Hardiman's from Grand Rapids/Kentwood. Heacock is more suburban. This will be an interesting battle, and have learned to expect almost anything out of Kent County.
District 5 - Jack Hoogendyk is challenging Fred Upton in the primary. This is a longshot, but incumbents have gone down a few times this year. Upton's survived challenges before. Jack would be a fiscal voice of sanity in DC and would get my vote.
District 7 - Three way primary between Tim Walberg, Brian Rooney, and Marvin Carlson. Tim Walberg is a good guy and solid conservative. He was caught offguard a bit in 2008 and I don't think that will happen this time. He voted against TARP twice instead of taking the easy way out and has a strong conservative record.
District 8 - The democrats have an interesting primary here. Kande what's his name couldn't handle Michigan style adversity and when the going got tough, he hit the road running back to Philly where things are less tough. His name's still on the ballot. Lance Enderle is running a write in campaign trying to beat Kande the ghost in the primary. Here's another reason for the democrats to stay in your own primary (and out of ours) along with the governor's race.
District 9 - Mostly a two way battle between Rocky Raczkowski and Paul Welday. I've known Rocky for years and he's a good guy and solid conservative with a history of winning tough races for state rep in Farmington Hills. After the 2002 loss against Carl Levin, he was called back up to service and served overseas. He's back and running in the 9th. Paul Welday was Joe Knollenberg's chief of staff. I met him a couple of times. Nice guy, but I think Rocky can upset Gary Peters. He's won tough elections in the past.
State Senate:
11th District....uhhh. No comment except that I hope the infighting doesn't cost us in November there. That is all.
18th District - Gary Wellings is the owner of a local Whitmore Lake based paper called The Courant which covers Southern Livingston and Northern Washtenaw Counties. I wrote a couple of articles for the Courant in the past and worked with Gary. He's a good guy and worthy of your support.
22nd District - I've known Joe Hune for years. The best thing about Joe as a senator is that he doesn't care what the self proclaimed important people in Lansing think. Joe doesn't care if you have a title. If he thinks it's right, he'll support it. If not, he won't. Backbone is missing in Lansing, and Joe has the backbone to stand up to pressure.
24th District - Rick Jones has been a good guy to gun owners for years, before it wasn't cool to be pro-gun.
26th District - In a close call, Dave Robertson. This is a swing district that doesn't have anyone named Cherry running this time. Robertson can pick off crossover votes in Genesee County.
31st District - Mike Green was the author of the bill to allow Michigan become a shall-issue state. He also won a district now represented by a democrat. He can flip the 50/50 district now that Jim Barcia (Who I wish ran against Dale Kildee in the primary) has been termed out.
State House:
30th District - I met Michael Shallal on the campaign trials. I meet a lot of candidates and not all of them are impressive. He's a good guy and solid conservative who just got back from Iraq. What impressed me from a candidate standpoint is his organization skills. The Rocca family has held the seat for over 20 years. Bill Ballenger predicted this seat to go democrat. I think Michael Shallal has something to say about that. If he wins, I think we're going to keep this seat.
31st District - Dan Tollis is a good guy worthy of our support.
73rd District - Bruce Hawley ran as a democrat in 2008. He's running as a republican in 2010. His campaign finance donation history shows he was a strong democrat supporting Granholm.
105th District - One person I couldn't vote for there is Dennis Lennox over his campaign finance shenanigans as Drain Commissioner. You don't do stuff like that on the county dime.
Oakland County Probate - Kathleen Ryan. I first met many of the Ryans during law school. It's a good family of judges who look at the facts, the law, and make sound and fair decisions based on that. Kate Ryan would be an excellent addition to the bench.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Primary Predictions 2010
I'm going to throw up a few predictions in the primaries with less than a week to go here.
Governor:
GOP - Too close to call. I'm afraid Snyder may pull this off. You have three candidates running as conservatives. One liberal, and Tom George. I have not seen any of the conservatives get up and run away with this. Hoekstra is the higher up establishment choice (regardless of what is said). Cox is the conservative PAC's endorsement choice and has a lot of the gun owner support. Bouchard has a lot of the local activist support, at least in Livingston County. Snyder is one of the most opposed by all these camps. My concern is a split vote between all of them with Snyder's money taking the win with the help of Joe Schwarz types of crossovers. I don't know who's going to take this, but I think Snyder loses the general by 10-20%, to either Dillon or Bernero. So if you don't want a candidate who is not pro-life, who is unknown on most issues, who outsourced jobs to China, and who is tied with the economic liberal Center for Michigan with Phil Power, get out and vote, and not for Snyder. Vote for Mike Cox.
Dem - Virg Bernero will win. I predicted this as soon as he ran. Virg isn't that well known, but he can campaign very well and has won difficult elections in the past. The UAW is also behind him and is spending a ton of money. Three days in a row. Three Virg mailings.
Congress 1 - I think Dan Benishek will win this. Yooper geography will make the difference over Allen.
Congress 2 - I haven't followed this much, but I think Jay Riemersma may pull off the semi-upset. Outsider with name recognition from his football days. Watch the darkhorse Reichardt. He's running as the liberal Republican, and is trying to do a Joe Schwarz circa 2004 and win with 20-30%. It may be enough.
Congress 3 - Hardiman in a close battle, although Amash can win with the right turnout. I wouldn't count out Heathcock either.
Congress 7 - Walberg in a not as close as expected race. Walberg always has had the ability to get his people out to the polls.
Congress 8 - Kande the ghost beats his write-in opponent. It would take probably $300,000 for his write-in opponent to get on the ballot.
Congress 9 - Rocky's won three times in his democrat leaning state rep seat, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi there. He's a tough campaigner and will probably win.
State Senate 22 - Joe Hune should win this one 67/33. I'd say 80/20 if his opponent was named Roger Paulson instead of Paul Rogers. Joe has an almost insane campaign work ethic and fair warning to anyone, especially with a famous last name who wants to run against him. You're going to get outworked. I think Joe's hit 20,000+ doors. He's on to repeats now. The Paul Rogers campaign isn't bad against most opponents. Joe isn't most opponents, and he's sending a message to all potential opponents in what they are going to be up against if they challenge him. Best for Joe, he's sent the message without going negative, concentrating on what Joe has done and will do, not what Paul may or may not be.
Governor:
GOP - Too close to call. I'm afraid Snyder may pull this off. You have three candidates running as conservatives. One liberal, and Tom George. I have not seen any of the conservatives get up and run away with this. Hoekstra is the higher up establishment choice (regardless of what is said). Cox is the conservative PAC's endorsement choice and has a lot of the gun owner support. Bouchard has a lot of the local activist support, at least in Livingston County. Snyder is one of the most opposed by all these camps. My concern is a split vote between all of them with Snyder's money taking the win with the help of Joe Schwarz types of crossovers. I don't know who's going to take this, but I think Snyder loses the general by 10-20%, to either Dillon or Bernero. So if you don't want a candidate who is not pro-life, who is unknown on most issues, who outsourced jobs to China, and who is tied with the economic liberal Center for Michigan with Phil Power, get out and vote, and not for Snyder. Vote for Mike Cox.
Dem - Virg Bernero will win. I predicted this as soon as he ran. Virg isn't that well known, but he can campaign very well and has won difficult elections in the past. The UAW is also behind him and is spending a ton of money. Three days in a row. Three Virg mailings.
Congress 1 - I think Dan Benishek will win this. Yooper geography will make the difference over Allen.
Congress 2 - I haven't followed this much, but I think Jay Riemersma may pull off the semi-upset. Outsider with name recognition from his football days. Watch the darkhorse Reichardt. He's running as the liberal Republican, and is trying to do a Joe Schwarz circa 2004 and win with 20-30%. It may be enough.
Congress 3 - Hardiman in a close battle, although Amash can win with the right turnout. I wouldn't count out Heathcock either.
Congress 7 - Walberg in a not as close as expected race. Walberg always has had the ability to get his people out to the polls.
Congress 8 - Kande the ghost beats his write-in opponent. It would take probably $300,000 for his write-in opponent to get on the ballot.
Congress 9 - Rocky's won three times in his democrat leaning state rep seat, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi there. He's a tough campaigner and will probably win.
State Senate 22 - Joe Hune should win this one 67/33. I'd say 80/20 if his opponent was named Roger Paulson instead of Paul Rogers. Joe has an almost insane campaign work ethic and fair warning to anyone, especially with a famous last name who wants to run against him. You're going to get outworked. I think Joe's hit 20,000+ doors. He's on to repeats now. The Paul Rogers campaign isn't bad against most opponents. Joe isn't most opponents, and he's sending a message to all potential opponents in what they are going to be up against if they challenge him. Best for Joe, he's sent the message without going negative, concentrating on what Joe has done and will do, not what Paul may or may not be.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Connecticut residing Goldman Sachs man Bob Bowman for Michigan Governor? Riiiiight.
Who is Bob Bowman? He was treasurer for Jim Blanchard, the governor most famous for flying a MSP helicopter and raising income taxes 38% during the "last one to leave turn out the lights" years. (sound familiar?) That's his claim to fame.
Other than that, he works for Major League Baseball, and used to work for Goldman Sachs.Goldman Sachs. There's a vote for confidence, after what they have done the last four years with their buddies Obama, Schumer, and Bush.
He's begin recruited because he's rich. One problem for him. He lives in Connecticut. What would someone in Connecticut get about Michigan? A vacation home in Harbor Springs on Little Traverse Bay doesn't cut it. This guy doesn't understand real Michigan. His only Michigan ties are working for Blanchard and his big money vacation home in Harbor Springs he uses as his primary address, to probably avoid the high property taxes through the homestead exemption.
Bowman told Tim Skubick that Harbor Springs was his home.If it was, why does his campaign donations say Westport Connecticut? NOTHING on the online campaign finance database comes back as Harbor Springs.
Newsmeat under name Bob Bowman - $2000 to John Edwards.(Yes, that John Edwards)
A lot of Michigan donations here but Westport is his home listed.
You have to go back to 1988 to find a Michigan address under the donor files. East Lansing.
Under the State of Michigan files, he uses a Westport address and donated. I won't post that verbatim, as his address is listed, and I don't post addresses here unless its an office address. $2000 to state committee. Bob Bowman is a carpetbagger from Westport, Connecticutt.
What's Westport Connecticut? It's a rich town on the Long Island Sound with a $1.2 million median price.Median income, almost $200,000. Democrats for working families, huh? Riiiiight.
We don't need a Blanchard/Goldman Sachs crony from Connecticut buying the election in our great state. Hank Paulson and Bob Rubin were both Goldman Sachs guys in charge of the US treasury. Goldman Sachs lobbyist Mark Patterson is the chief of staff to Tim Geithner. Goldman Sachs is tight with the AIG bailout.
Say Yes to Michigan. Say no to Goldman Sachs cronies. Say no to Blanchard jr. Say no to Michigan Governor's living in Connecticut. Say no to Bob Bowman.
Strike one - Blanchard's treasurer and 38% tax increase
Strike two - Carpetbagger from Connecticut
Strike three - Goldman Sachs
Yer out!
Other than that, he works for Major League Baseball, and used to work for Goldman Sachs.Goldman Sachs. There's a vote for confidence, after what they have done the last four years with their buddies Obama, Schumer, and Bush.
He's begin recruited because he's rich. One problem for him. He lives in Connecticut. What would someone in Connecticut get about Michigan? A vacation home in Harbor Springs on Little Traverse Bay doesn't cut it. This guy doesn't understand real Michigan. His only Michigan ties are working for Blanchard and his big money vacation home in Harbor Springs he uses as his primary address, to probably avoid the high property taxes through the homestead exemption.
Bowman told Tim Skubick that Harbor Springs was his home.If it was, why does his campaign donations say Westport Connecticut? NOTHING on the online campaign finance database comes back as Harbor Springs.
Newsmeat under name Bob Bowman - $2000 to John Edwards.(Yes, that John Edwards)
A lot of Michigan donations here but Westport is his home listed.
You have to go back to 1988 to find a Michigan address under the donor files. East Lansing.
Under the State of Michigan files, he uses a Westport address and donated. I won't post that verbatim, as his address is listed, and I don't post addresses here unless its an office address. $2000 to state committee. Bob Bowman is a carpetbagger from Westport, Connecticutt.
What's Westport Connecticut? It's a rich town on the Long Island Sound with a $1.2 million median price.Median income, almost $200,000. Democrats for working families, huh? Riiiiight.
We don't need a Blanchard/Goldman Sachs crony from Connecticut buying the election in our great state. Hank Paulson and Bob Rubin were both Goldman Sachs guys in charge of the US treasury. Goldman Sachs lobbyist Mark Patterson is the chief of staff to Tim Geithner. Goldman Sachs is tight with the AIG bailout.
Say Yes to Michigan. Say no to Goldman Sachs cronies. Say no to Blanchard jr. Say no to Michigan Governor's living in Connecticut. Say no to Bob Bowman.
Strike one - Blanchard's treasurer and 38% tax increase
Strike two - Carpetbagger from Connecticut
Strike three - Goldman Sachs
Yer out!
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Denise Ilitch not running for governor
She was leading in one of the hypothetical polls based on that last name of hers, but decided not to run.
From WWJ 950
Campaigns take a lot of time, there's no doubt about that, although I don't see how the compressed schedule is different than any other year.
Right now, the following are in or likely in.
GOP:
Mike Bouchard
Mike Cox
Tom George
Pete Hoekstra
Bruce Nichols
Tim Rujan
Rick Snyder
DEM:
Virg Bernero
Andy Dillon
Alma Smith
Bob Bowman has talked about it. The dems are waiting on him.
From WWJ 950
In a statement, Ilitch said she was "humbled" that so many people encouraged her to consider a run, but she said the one missing piece of a campaign was time.
"Through a methodical planning process, I saw that the message, resources, and many key endorsements would be there, but concluded that the compressed election year calendar would not allow me to run the kind of campaign for Governor I believe Michigan needs at this time," the statement said. "And that stubborn fact is the one and only reason why I am not running for Governor today."
Campaigns take a lot of time, there's no doubt about that, although I don't see how the compressed schedule is different than any other year.
Right now, the following are in or likely in.
GOP:
Mike Bouchard
Mike Cox
Tom George
Pete Hoekstra
Bruce Nichols
Tim Rujan
Rick Snyder
DEM:
Virg Bernero
Andy Dillon
Alma Smith
Bob Bowman has talked about it. The dems are waiting on him.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Rick Snyder Super Bowl Political Ad
I just caught the Rick Snyder ad. It's slick. I'll take a look at the plan on his site and see if he actually has details for a change beyond platitudes and company line talk "Reinvent" etc.
Apparently it did its job of getting noticed considering how many people are looking at my archives and the two Rick Snyder posts there. Obviously, I'm not a supporter of Mr. Snyder.
I do not support Rick Snyder, and these two posts explain why. I wasn't happy with Gateway's products, the outsourcing of jobs from America to other counties during his tenure at Gateway, nor his vague politician answers to questions. I was not impressed.
We need a reformer as governor, but I don't see it from Mr. Snyder. It's the same center-left style of Lansing in-crowd who have run Lansing the last eight years - both parties. Those fee increases and spending increase from 2002-2006 were supported by Rick Johnson and Ken Sikkema and 1/3 of the Republicans as much as it was by Granholm and the democrats.The problem is the self appointed elitist mindset that is evident by the powers that be. Snyder may or may not have that mindset, but his circle of supporters with the Center for Michigan (which support tax increases) do.
March 2009 post on Snyder
August 09 - Outsourcing at Gateway
Right Michigan also has a lot of archives and posts on Rick Snyder as well.
Snyder so far has struck me as more of the same with a different gimmick.
Apparently it did its job of getting noticed considering how many people are looking at my archives and the two Rick Snyder posts there. Obviously, I'm not a supporter of Mr. Snyder.
I do not support Rick Snyder, and these two posts explain why. I wasn't happy with Gateway's products, the outsourcing of jobs from America to other counties during his tenure at Gateway, nor his vague politician answers to questions. I was not impressed.
We need a reformer as governor, but I don't see it from Mr. Snyder. It's the same center-left style of Lansing in-crowd who have run Lansing the last eight years - both parties. Those fee increases and spending increase from 2002-2006 were supported by Rick Johnson and Ken Sikkema and 1/3 of the Republicans as much as it was by Granholm and the democrats.The problem is the self appointed elitist mindset that is evident by the powers that be. Snyder may or may not have that mindset, but his circle of supporters with the Center for Michigan (which support tax increases) do.
March 2009 post on Snyder
August 09 - Outsourcing at Gateway
Right Michigan also has a lot of archives and posts on Rick Snyder as well.
Snyder so far has struck me as more of the same with a different gimmick.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Michigan 10th District (MI-10) Updated
Michigan's 10th District - Congress
Incumbent - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - R+5
GOP Candidate - Candice Miller
Dem Candidate - Henry Yanez
Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%
2004:
Bush - 57%
Kerry – 43%
2000
Bush - 53%
Gore - 45%
This district is a right-populist district that was created to send David Bonior home. The old 10th was a swing district that voted for Regan, GHWB, Clinton, Bush twice, and probably Obama, but at the same time kept voting narrowly for David Bonior, driving the GOP nuts. This district is still populist, but no longer has the Democrat strongholds of Mt Clemens, Eastpointe, Roseville, nor the competitive areas of Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores. The good news is that this district got Candice Miller, then two term secretary of state to run. She won easily, never getting less than 63%. The bad news is that I think making this district that much more Republican helped cost Joe Knollenberg his seat six years after the fact. If the rest of Sterling Heights (a swing city, but democrat in the South and more Republican in the North) went to Miller instead of Levin, then all of Royal Oak and Berkley could have gone to Sander Levin, and Knollenberg could have taken the rest of Orion and more of the north townships instead, scaring off Peters. I think Miller would have beaten Bonior (assuming he moved one town over) in 2002 in the new district without St Clair Shores (which loves Bonior democrats), Eastpointe, Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens. Lapeer, Huron, and Sanilac Counties would have made the difference, even with St Clair ticket-splitters going his way.
Candice Miller should be safe here as long as she watches the populist flank. This is a conservative district, but not one that would vote for big business. The thumb is one of the most independent minded areas in the country. Macomb County is still the home of the Reagan Democrat. While Northern Macomb is more Republican, it can't be taken for granted. It was close in 2000, shifted hard right in 2004, and shifted to tossing the bums out in 2006/2008. Macomb loves to toss who they think are bums out, going back to 1984. St Clair County is a swing county that leans somewhat republican, is not adverse to voting for democrats. It's by all accounts an extension of North Macomb in politics, although usually less republican because of the Port Huron area.
This is an area that always needs to be worked hard election time. The best candidates here are populist, strong, anti-establishment, hard working, pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, but also somewhat pro-union, and against bad trade agreements. It's a Jacksonian district.
Here's the latest results for Candice Miller, who is still the current rep. She's won easily in every election,and took all municipalities in 2008.
Bush won this district by decent margin in 2000 and easily in 2004. Miller has more of Sterling Heights than Levin, so I used the Levin precincts subtracted from the rest of the City.
Here's 2000.
And 2004. You can see the shift here and how independent the electorate is here, especially when 2008 comes in the picture. Watch the thumb areas in particular.
McCain struggled here as he did in all of the state, but he did win this district, one of three won.
This whole area is susceptable to voting shifts, although they are consistent and similar in their politics. North Macomb about 1% less GOP than the thumb (minus Tuscola County which probably wouldn't alter the numbers much)
Comparing by area.
Macomb County Portion:
Bush 53.78%, Gore 44.05%, 145181 votes, 14122 vote spread
Bush 56.54%, Kerry 42.50%, 182383 votes, 25612 vote spread
McCain 50.36%, Obama 47.91%, 197151 votes, 4826 vote spread
Thumb:
Bush 53.02%, Gore 44.31%, 149,665 votes, 13037 vote spread
Bush 55.88%, Kerry 43.04%, 162119 votes, 20827 vote spread
McCain 49.21%, Obama 48.67%, 163536 votes, 932 vote spread
The Farm Club here favors the democrats due to the number of close and even republican seats that flipped this way on the local level. Some of them open up with term limits.
St Senate 25 - Covers Lapeer and St Clair Counties - This is another open seat in 2010. Jud Gilbert is the senator. This is a district that has some republican leanings, is one the democrats usually think they can win. Lapeer County has some GOP leanings, and St Clair County is usually close and often leans GOP (but went for Obama), but has a democrat base in Port Huron. 06 was a little too close to comfort here.
St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp, Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.
St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.
St. House 84th - Covers Huron and Tuscola Counties. This is a competitive district in the thumb. It was Mike Green's district, then Tom Meyer's district. Meyer narrowly won in 2002 as an incumbent. Terry Brown then won the district as an open seat. This is a seat that will need to be picked up for the GOP to retake the Michigan House.
St House 83 - Covers Sanilac County, and Burtchville Twp, Fort Gratiot, and the City of Port Huron in St Clair County. This is a competitive district that was choked badly in 2004 for several reasons that don't need to be rehashed here, but should be remembered by the strategy department at state party. Sanilac County is quite conservative, but will vote for a local democrat. Port Huron leans democrat. This is a district we should take back with John Espinoza termed out, but I don't expect it to be easy.
St House 82 - Covers Lapeer County - Leans GOP.
St House 81 - Covers Algonac, Berlin Twp, Brockway Twp, Casco Twp, China Twp, Clay Twp, Clyde Twp, Cottrellville Twp, East China Twp, Emmett Twp, Grant Twp, Greenwood Twp, Kenockee Twp, Lynn Twp, Marine City, City of Marysville, City of Memphis (St Clair Side), Mussey Twp, Port Huron Twp, Riley Twp, City of St Clair, St Clair Twp, and Yale in St Clair County. This is a potentially competitive seat in St Clair County. Most of it leans slightly GOP, but Marysville has a democrat leaning. Phil Pavlov is termed out so this is an open seat.
St House 36 - Covers Bruce Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp in Macomb County - Probably the most GOP district in Macomb County.
St House 33 - Covers part of Clinton Twp, Macomb Twp, and Ray Twp - Fairly strong GOP lean, but not overwhelmingly so. This district does not care for company line representatives. In the past this district or a similar one elected Meltzer, Leon Drolet, and David Jaye. It also voted for David Bonior.
St House 32 - Covers Armada Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond Twp in Macomb County, and Columbus Twp, Ira Twp, Kimball Twp, and Wales Twp in St Clair county. This district just flipped in 2008. I would have called it slightly GOP leaning, but Kimball Twp, Lenox Twp, and Chesterfield Twp makes it dangerous. Anything in Macomb and St Clair County is dangerous to a degree, but those areas more so. If the GOP is taking back the state house, it starts here.
St Rep 31 - Covers part of Clinton Twp and Mt Clemens in Macomb County - Slight democrat leaning, made more so by Mt Clemens. The GOP thought they had this one awhile back, but Fred Miller had other plans, keeping this district in the hands of the dems for as long as I've followed the state house. This area is the heart of Bonior country, and it's not going to be easy. It's winnable in the right year though, like the North Warren/South Sterling Heights district.
St Rep 30 - Covers Northern Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County- This is a competitive district that has been held by the Rocca's for years. Sal, Sue, and Torry Rocca have represented this district. Tory Rocca is termed out, and it will be interesting to see who takes this. Sterling Heights is more democrat the south you go, so there may be a slight GOP leaning, but I expect this to be close.
St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.
St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?
Overall, this district is safe for Candice Miller, and potentially competitive if it opens up. Redistricting can make this interesting as well. Will Bonior attempt a comeback if Warren, Eastpointe, or Roseville are back in. Will this go west from the thumb and take in Bay County. If that's the case, Barcia may try and make a run. He's term limited and held a thumb district. I think the dems will be careful here if they control redistricting. I don't think Stabenow wants to take on Miller in 2012.
There should be some interesting downticket races here in 2010. Oftentimes as Macomb County goes, so does the state. Watch St Clair County too. It's always competitive.
Incumbent - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - R+5
GOP Candidate - Candice Miller
Dem Candidate - Henry Yanez
Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%
2004:
Bush - 57%
Kerry – 43%
2000
Bush - 53%
Gore - 45%
This district is a right-populist district that was created to send David Bonior home. The old 10th was a swing district that voted for Regan, GHWB, Clinton, Bush twice, and probably Obama, but at the same time kept voting narrowly for David Bonior, driving the GOP nuts. This district is still populist, but no longer has the Democrat strongholds of Mt Clemens, Eastpointe, Roseville, nor the competitive areas of Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores. The good news is that this district got Candice Miller, then two term secretary of state to run. She won easily, never getting less than 63%. The bad news is that I think making this district that much more Republican helped cost Joe Knollenberg his seat six years after the fact. If the rest of Sterling Heights (a swing city, but democrat in the South and more Republican in the North) went to Miller instead of Levin, then all of Royal Oak and Berkley could have gone to Sander Levin, and Knollenberg could have taken the rest of Orion and more of the north townships instead, scaring off Peters. I think Miller would have beaten Bonior (assuming he moved one town over) in 2002 in the new district without St Clair Shores (which loves Bonior democrats), Eastpointe, Clinton Twp, and Mt Clemens. Lapeer, Huron, and Sanilac Counties would have made the difference, even with St Clair ticket-splitters going his way.
Candice Miller should be safe here as long as she watches the populist flank. This is a conservative district, but not one that would vote for big business. The thumb is one of the most independent minded areas in the country. Macomb County is still the home of the Reagan Democrat. While Northern Macomb is more Republican, it can't be taken for granted. It was close in 2000, shifted hard right in 2004, and shifted to tossing the bums out in 2006/2008. Macomb loves to toss who they think are bums out, going back to 1984. St Clair County is a swing county that leans somewhat republican, is not adverse to voting for democrats. It's by all accounts an extension of North Macomb in politics, although usually less republican because of the Port Huron area.
This is an area that always needs to be worked hard election time. The best candidates here are populist, strong, anti-establishment, hard working, pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, but also somewhat pro-union, and against bad trade agreements. It's a Jacksonian district.
Here's the latest results for Candice Miller, who is still the current rep. She's won easily in every election,and took all municipalities in 2008.
| 2008 Election | Miller | Denison | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Huron County | 12,269 | 4,041 | 366 | 16,676 | 8228 | 73.57% | 24.23% | 49.34% |
| Lapeer County | 27,969 | 14,478 | 1354 | 43,801 | 13491 | 63.85% | 33.05% | 30.80% |
| Macomb County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Armada Twp | 1,965 | 755 | 79 | 2,799 | 1210 | 70.20% | 26.97% | 43.23% |
| Bruce Twp | 3,450 | 1,178 | 128 | 4,756 | 2272 | 72.54% | 24.77% | 47.77% |
| Chesterfield Twp | 13,057 | 6,993 | 530 | 20,580 | 6064 | 63.45% | 33.98% | 29.47% |
| Harrison Twp | 8,739 | 4,085 | 330 | 13,154 | 4654 | 66.44% | 31.06% | 35.38% |
| Lenox Twp | 2,378 | 1,660 | 101 | 4,139 | 718 | 57.45% | 40.11% | 17.35% |
| Macomb Twp | 24,905 | 11,816 | 675 | 37,396 | 13089 | 66.60% | 31.60% | 35.00% |
| City of Memphis | 277 | 90 | 20 | 387 | 187 | 71.58% | 23.26% | 48.32% |
| City of New Baltimore | 3,870 | 1,830 | 124 | 5,824 | 2040 | 66.45% | 31.42% | 35.03% |
| Ray Twp | 1,496 | 464 | 51 | 2,011 | 1032 | 74.39% | 23.07% | 51.32% |
| City of Richmond | 1,839 | 856 | 97 | 2,792 | 983 | 65.87% | 30.66% | 35.21% |
| Richmond Twp | 1,359 | 432 | 43 | 1,834 | 927 | 74.10% | 23.56% | 50.55% |
| Shelby Twp | 24,626 | 11,044 | 879 | 36,549 | 13582 | 67.38% | 30.22% | 37.16% |
| Sterling Heights: | 25,465 | 15,070 | 1147 | 41,682 | 10395 | 61.09% | 36.15% | 24.94% |
| SH 1 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 2 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 3 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 4 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 5 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 6 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 8 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 9 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 10 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 13 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 15 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 16 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 46 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 47 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 901 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 902 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 903 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| SH 907 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| City of Utica | 1,393 | 808 | 77 | 2,278 | 585 | 61.15% | 35.47% | 25.68% |
| Washington Twp | 9,083 | 3,369 | 302 | 12,754 | 5714 | 71.22% | 26.42% | 44.80% |
| St Clair County | 52,280 | 24,178 | 2074 | 78,532 | 28102 | 66.57% | 30.79% | 35.78% |
| Sanilac County | 14,041 | 5,207 | 492 | 19,740 | 8834 | 71.13% | 26.38% | 44.75% |
| Total | 230,461 | 108,354 | 8,869 | 347,684 | 122107 | 66.28% | 31.16% | 35.12% |
Bush won this district by decent margin in 2000 and easily in 2004. Miller has more of Sterling Heights than Levin, so I used the Levin precincts subtracted from the rest of the City.
Here's 2000.
| 2000 elections | Bush | Gore | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Huron County | 8,911 | 6,899 | 285 | 16,095 | 2012 | 55.37% | 42.86% | 12.50% |
| Lapeer County | 20,351 | 15,749 | 1127 | 37,227 | 4602 | 54.67% | 42.31% | 12.36% |
| Macomb County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Armada Twp | 1,486 | 989 | 100 | 2,575 | 497 | 57.71% | 38.41% | 19.30% |
| Bruce Twp | 2,461 | 1,494 | 91 | 4,046 | 967 | 60.83% | 36.93% | 23.90% |
| Chesterfield Twp | 7,656 | 7,210 | 346 | 15,212 | 446 | 50.33% | 47.40% | 2.93% |
| Harrison Twp | 5,608 | 5,111 | 242 | 10,961 | 497 | 51.16% | 46.63% | 4.53% |
| Lenox Twp | 1,300 | 1,335 | 55 | 2,690 | -35 | 48.33% | 49.63% | -1.30% |
| Macomb Twp | 12,363 | 10,249 | 325 | 22,937 | 2114 | 53.90% | 44.68% | 9.22% |
| City of Memphis | 197 | 163 | 11 | 371 | 34 | 53.10% | 43.94% | 9.16% |
| City of New Baltimore | 1,827 | 1,659 | 98 | 3,584 | 168 | 50.98% | 46.29% | 4.69% |
| Ray Twp | 1,144 | 711 | 36 | 1,891 | 433 | 60.50% | 37.60% | 22.90% |
| City of Richmond | 1,136 | 1,004 | 64 | 2,204 | 132 | 51.54% | 45.55% | 5.99% |
| Richmond Twp | 935 | 564 | 42 | 1,541 | 371 | 60.67% | 36.60% | 24.08% |
| Shelby Twp | 17,109 | 12,015 | 706 | 29,830 | 5094 | 57.36% | 40.28% | 17.08% |
| Sterling Heights: | 26,576 | 25,158 | 1177 | 52,911 | 1418 | 50.23% | 47.55% | 2.68% |
| SH 1 | -429 | -508 | -22 | (959) | 79 | 44.73% | 52.97% | -8.24% |
| SH 2 | -505 | -513 | -36 | (1,054) | 8 | 47.91% | 48.67% | -0.76% |
| SH 3 | -431 | -503 | -20 | (954) | 72 | 45.18% | 52.73% | -7.55% |
| SH 4 | -496 | -565 | -21 | (1,082) | 69 | 45.84% | 52.22% | -6.38% |
| SH 5 | -475 | -466 | -14 | (955) | -9 | 49.74% | 48.80% | 0.94% |
| SH 6 | -371 | -344 | -24 | (739) | -27 | 50.20% | 46.55% | 3.65% |
| SH 8 | -276 | -226 | -21 | (523) | -50 | 52.77% | 43.21% | 9.56% |
| SH 9 | -611 | -394 | -23 | (1,028) | -217 | 59.44% | 38.33% | 21.11% |
| SH 10 | -289 | -276 | -16 | (581) | -13 | 49.74% | 47.50% | 2.24% |
| SH 13 | -324 | -335 | -21 | (680) | 11 | 47.65% | 49.26% | -1.62% |
| SH 15 | -427 | -383 | -14 | (824) | -44 | 51.82% | 46.48% | 5.34% |
| SH 16 | -351 | -381 | -19 | (751) | 30 | 46.74% | 50.73% | -3.99% |
| SH 46 | -355 | -339 | -14 | (708) | -16 | 50.14% | 47.88% | 2.26% |
| SH 47 | -229 | -316 | -14 | (559) | 87 | 40.97% | 56.53% | -15.56% |
| SH 901 | -671 | -684 | -28 | (1,383) | 13 | 48.52% | 49.46% | -0.94% |
| SH 902 | -465 | -481 | -18 | (964) | 16 | 48.24% | 49.90% | -1.66% |
| SH 903 | -988 | -1,064 | -28 | (2,080) | 76 | 47.50% | 51.15% | -3.65% |
| SH 907 | -556 | -402 | -19 | (977) | -154 | 56.91% | 41.15% | 15.76% |
| City of Utica | 976 | 962 | 50 | 1,988 | 14 | 49.09% | 48.39% | 0.70% |
| Washington Twp | 5,553 | 3,512 | 176 | 9,241 | 2041 | 60.09% | 38.00% | 22.09% |
| St Clair County | 33,571 | 33,002 | 1943 | 68,516 | 569 | 49.00% | 48.17% | 0.83% |
| Sanilac County | 10,966 | 7,153 | 467 | 18,586 | 3813 | 59.00% | 38.49% | 20.52% |
| Total | 151,877 | 126,759 | 6,969 | 285,605 | 25118 | 53.18% | 44.38% | 8.79% |
And 2004. You can see the shift here and how independent the electorate is here, especially when 2008 comes in the picture. Watch the thumb areas in particular.
| 2004 elections | Bush | Kerry | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Huron County | 9,671 | 7,629 | 166 | 17,466 | 2042 | 55.37% | 43.68% | 11.69% |
| Lapeer County | 25,556 | 18,086 | 505 | 44,147 | 7470 | 57.89% | 40.97% | 16.92% |
| Macomb County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Armada Twp | 1,797 | 1,062 | 37 | 2,896 | 735 | 62.05% | 36.67% | 25.38% |
| Bruce Twp | 2,976 | 1,731 | 48 | 4,755 | 1245 | 62.59% | 36.40% | 26.18% |
| Chesterfield Twp | 10,533 | 8,853 | 197 | 19,583 | 1680 | 53.79% | 45.21% | 8.58% |
| Harrison Twp | 6,946 | 5,906 | 123 | 12,975 | 1040 | 53.53% | 45.52% | 8.02% |
| Lenox Twp | 1,890 | 1,736 | 28 | 3,654 | 154 | 51.72% | 47.51% | 4.21% |
| Macomb Twp | 19,496 | 14,342 | 244 | 34,082 | 5154 | 57.20% | 42.08% | 15.12% |
| City of Memphis | 227 | 170 | 5 | 402 | 57 | 56.47% | 42.29% | 14.18% |
| City of New Baltimore | 3,103 | 2,440 | 50 | 5,593 | 663 | 55.48% | 43.63% | 11.85% |
| Ray Twp | 1,315 | 707 | 15 | 2,037 | 608 | 64.56% | 34.71% | 29.85% |
| City of Richmond | 1,610 | 1,177 | 33 | 2,820 | 433 | 57.09% | 41.74% | 15.35% |
| Richmond Twp | 1,156 | 674 | 24 | 1,854 | 482 | 62.35% | 36.35% | 26.00% |
| Shelby Twp | 20,921 | 13,452 | 335 | 34,708 | 7469 | 60.28% | 38.76% | 21.52% |
| Sterling Heights: | 30,885 | 28,697 | 641 | 60,223 | 2188 | 51.28% | 47.65% | 3.63% |
| SH 1 | -402 | -496 | -8 | (906) | 94 | 44.37% | 54.75% | -10.38% |
| SH 2 | -502 | -546 | -8 | (1,056) | 44 | 47.54% | 51.70% | -4.17% |
| SH 3 | -454 | -551 | -9 | (1,014) | 97 | 44.77% | 54.34% | -9.57% |
| SH 4 | -668 | -795 | -9 | (1,472) | 127 | 45.38% | 54.01% | -8.63% |
| SH 5 | -465 | -494 | -9 | (968) | 29 | 48.04% | 51.03% | -3.00% |
| SH 6 | -592 | -551 | -6 | (1,149) | -41 | 51.52% | 47.95% | 3.57% |
| SH 8 | -297 | -214 | -8 | (519) | -83 | 57.23% | 41.23% | 15.99% |
| SH 9 | -552 | -459 | -4 | (1,015) | -93 | 54.38% | 45.22% | 9.16% |
| SH 10 | -496 | -471 | -15 | (982) | -25 | 50.51% | 47.96% | 2.55% |
| SH 13 | -170 | -144 | -9 | (323) | -26 | 52.63% | 44.58% | 8.05% |
| SH 15 | -463 | -485 | -11 | (959) | 22 | 48.28% | 50.57% | -2.29% |
| SH 16 | -343 | -467 | -6 | (816) | 124 | 42.03% | 57.23% | -15.20% |
| SH 46 | -478 | -592 | -8 | (1,078) | 114 | 44.34% | 54.92% | -10.58% |
| SH 47 | -257 | -335 | -7 | (599) | 78 | 42.90% | 55.93% | -13.02% |
| SH 901 | -706 | -768 | -12 | (1,486) | 62 | 47.51% | 51.68% | -4.17% |
| SH 902 | -165 | -164 | -5 | (334) | -1 | 49.40% | 49.10% | 0.30% |
| SH 903 | -60 | -68 | -1 | (129) | 8 | 46.51% | 52.71% | -6.20% |
| SH 907 | -1,330 | -1,208 | -31 | (2,569) | -122 | 51.77% | 47.02% | 4.75% |
| City of Utica | 1,147 | 1,077 | 24 | 2,248 | 70 | 51.02% | 47.91% | 3.11% |
| Washington Twp | 7,526 | 4,300 | 101 | 11,927 | 3226 | 63.10% | 36.05% | 27.05% |
| St Clair County | 42,740 | 36,174 | 829 | 79,743 | 6566 | 53.60% | 45.36% | 8.23% |
| Sanilac County | 12,632 | 7,883 | 248 | 20,763 | 4749 | 60.84% | 37.97% | 22.87% |
| Total | 193,727 | 147,288 | 3,487 | 344,502 | 46439 | 56.23% | 42.75% | 13.48% |
McCain struggled here as he did in all of the state, but he did win this district, one of three won.
| 2008 Elections | McCain | Obama | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Huron County | 8,434 | 8,367 | 374 | 17,175 | 67 | 49.11% | 48.72% | 0.39% |
| Lapeer County | 22,831 | 21,457 | 1074 | 45,362 | 1374 | 50.33% | 47.30% | 3.03% |
| Macomb County: | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Armada Twp | 1,604 | 1,252 | 67 | 2,923 | 352 | 54.88% | 42.83% | 12.04% |
| Bruce Twp | 2,854 | 2,071 | 76 | 5,001 | 783 | 57.07% | 41.41% | 15.66% |
| Chesterfield Twp | 10,019 | 11,050 | 398 | 21,467 | -1031 | 46.67% | 51.47% | -4.80% |
| Harrison Twp | 6,610 | 6,726 | 244 | 13,580 | -116 | 48.67% | 49.53% | -0.85% |
| Lenox Twp | 1,880 | 2,369 | 70 | 4,319 | -489 | 43.53% | 54.85% | -11.32% |
| Macomb Twp | 19,579 | 18,952 | 504 | 39,035 | 627 | 50.16% | 48.55% | 1.61% |
| City of Memphis | 227 | 154 | 12 | 393 | 73 | 57.76% | 39.19% | 18.58% |
| City of New Baltimore | 3,003 | 2,971 | 101 | 6,075 | 32 | 49.43% | 48.91% | 0.53% |
| Ray Twp | 1,296 | 780 | 52 | 2,128 | 516 | 60.90% | 36.65% | 24.25% |
| City of Richmond | 1,454 | 1,378 | 44 | 2,876 | 76 | 50.56% | 47.91% | 2.64% |
| Richmond Twp | 1,142 | 723 | 41 | 1,906 | 419 | 59.92% | 37.93% | 21.98% |
| Shelby Twp | 20,607 | 16,877 | 677 | 38,161 | 3730 | 54.00% | 44.23% | 9.77% |
| Sterling Heights: | 27,510 | 32,009 | 1083 | 60,602 | -4499 | 45.39% | 52.82% | -7.42% |
| SH 1 | -330 | -511 | -8 | (849) | 181 | 38.87% | 60.19% | -21.32% |
| SH 2 | -438 | -517 | -10 | (965) | 79 | 45.39% | 53.58% | -8.19% |
| SH 3 | -383 | -624 | -21 | (1,028) | 241 | 37.26% | 60.70% | -23.44% |
| SH 4 | -567 | -844 | -14 | (1,425) | 277 | 39.79% | 59.23% | -19.44% |
| SH 5 | -353 | -571 | -14 | (938) | 218 | 37.63% | 60.87% | -23.24% |
| SH 6 | -482 | -614 | -15 | (1,111) | 132 | 43.38% | 55.27% | -11.88% |
| SH 8 | -248 | -262 | -11 | (521) | 14 | 47.60% | 50.29% | -2.69% |
| SH 9 | -450 | -476 | -6 | (932) | 26 | 48.28% | 51.07% | -2.79% |
| SH 10 | -393 | -484 | -24 | (901) | 91 | 43.62% | 53.72% | -10.10% |
| SH 13 | -137 | -185 | -4 | (326) | 48 | 42.02% | 56.75% | -14.72% |
| SH 15 | -352 | -553 | -9 | (914) | 201 | 38.51% | 60.50% | -21.99% |
| SH 16 | -255 | -475 | -12 | (742) | 220 | 34.37% | 64.02% | -29.65% |
| SH 46 | -384 | -671 | -20 | (1,075) | 287 | 35.72% | 62.42% | -26.70% |
| SH 47 | -200 | -307 | -8 | (515) | 107 | 38.83% | 59.61% | -20.78% |
| SH 901 | -725 | -796 | -29 | (1,550) | 71 | 46.77% | 51.35% | -4.58% |
| SH 902 | -203 | -210 | -3 | (416) | 7 | 48.80% | 50.48% | -1.68% |
| SH 903 | -68 | -61 | -2 | (131) | -7 | 51.91% | 46.56% | 5.34% |
| SH 907 | -1,369 | -1,369 | -31 | (2,769) | 0 | 49.44% | 49.44% | 0.00% |
| City of Utica | 1,099 | 1,288 | 60 | 2,447 | -189 | 44.91% | 52.64% | -7.72% |
| Washington Twp | 7,741 | 5,392 | 213 | 13,346 | 2349 | 58.00% | 40.40% | 17.60% |
| St Clair County | 38,536 | 40,677 | 1587 | 80,800 | -2141 | 47.69% | 50.34% | -2.65% |
| Sanilac County | 10,679 | 9,047 | 473 | 20,199 | 1632 | 52.87% | 44.79% | 8.08% |
| Total | 179,768 | 174,010 | 6,909 | 360,687 | 5758 | 49.84% | 48.24% | 1.60% |
This whole area is susceptable to voting shifts, although they are consistent and similar in their politics. North Macomb about 1% less GOP than the thumb (minus Tuscola County which probably wouldn't alter the numbers much)
Comparing by area.
Macomb County Portion:
Bush 53.78%, Gore 44.05%, 145181 votes, 14122 vote spread
Bush 56.54%, Kerry 42.50%, 182383 votes, 25612 vote spread
McCain 50.36%, Obama 47.91%, 197151 votes, 4826 vote spread
Thumb:
Bush 53.02%, Gore 44.31%, 149,665 votes, 13037 vote spread
Bush 55.88%, Kerry 43.04%, 162119 votes, 20827 vote spread
McCain 49.21%, Obama 48.67%, 163536 votes, 932 vote spread
The Farm Club here favors the democrats due to the number of close and even republican seats that flipped this way on the local level. Some of them open up with term limits.
St. Senate 31 - Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Sanilac and Tuscola is in the district. This district opens up with Jim Barcia termed out. It should be a very close race in 2010. Barcia ran way ahead of the partisan numbers here due to his personal popularity and pro-gun, pro-life, and trade stances while in Congress.
| St Senate 31st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Nuncio/Barcia | 23,569 | 78,923 | 1441 | 103,933 | -55354 | 22.68% | 75.94% | -53.26% |
| 02 - Green/Barcia | 35,486 | 54,352 | 89,838 | -18866 | 39.50% | 60.50% | -21.00% |
St Senate 25 - Covers Lapeer and St Clair Counties - This is another open seat in 2010. Jud Gilbert is the senator. This is a district that has some republican leanings, is one the democrats usually think they can win. Lapeer County has some GOP leanings, and St Clair County is usually close and often leans GOP (but went for Obama), but has a democrat base in Port Huron. 06 was a little too close to comfort here.
| St. Senate 25th | GOP | Dem | 3rd party | |||||
| 06 - Gilbert/Orr | 49,272 | 43,935 | 2469 | 95,676 | 5337 | 51.50% | 45.92% | 5.58% |
| 06 - Gilbert/Hamilton | 43,806 | 34,517 | 78,323 | 9289 | 55.93% | 44.07% | 11.86% |
St Senate 11 - Covers Armada Twp, Bruce Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Harrison Twp, Lenox Twp, Macomb Twp, Memphis Twp, Mt Clemens, New Baltimore, Ray Twp, Richmond City and Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp. If you can call a Macomb County district Solid GOP, this is it. I thought the redistricters did a poor job in Macomb County, which I'll get to in the next seat. Alan Sanborn is termed out, and this seat opens up.
| St Senate 11th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Sanborn/Jenkins | 65543 | 42279 | 2903 | 110,725 | 23264 | 59.19% | 38.18% | 21.01% |
| 02 - Sanborn/Ayres | 55859 | 26365 | 82,224 | 29494 | 67.94% | 32.06% | 35.87% | |
St Senate 10 - Covers Clinton Twp, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica - Why the hell do you take what is otherwise a swing district, and give it Roseville of all places? Roseville is one of the three most democrat places by percentage in Macomb County. Eastpointe and Mt Clemens are the other. Roseville is also home of the Switalski family. Give Switalski the Warren district. Give the Sterling Heights district Shelby Twp instead. That could have made it 2 GOP Senate seats instead of 1 GOP, 1 Dem, and 1 lean Dem. Michael Switalski is the incumbent, and he's termed out. This could be fight if 2010 is a good year. It depends on how well the Republican does in Clinton Twp. He must win it to have a chance here. Postumus did in 2002. Bush came close, but lost it.
| St Senate 10th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | |||||
| 06 - Horton/Switalski | 30,067 | 62,737 | 2596 | 95,400 | -32670 | 31.52% | 65.76% | -34.25% |
| 02 - Rice/Switalski | 36,424 | 42,822 | 1462 | 80,708 | -6398 | 45.13% | 53.06% | -7.93% |
St. House 84th - Covers Huron and Tuscola Counties. This is a competitive district in the thumb. It was Mike Green's district, then Tom Meyer's district. Meyer narrowly won in 2002 as an incumbent. Terry Brown then won the district as an open seat. This is a seat that will need to be picked up for the GOP to retake the Michigan House.
| St Rep 84th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Kabot/Brown | 15,321 | 28,192 | 43,513 | -12871 | 35.21% | 64.79% | -29.58% | |
| 06 - Hunt/Brown | 17,374 | 18,422 | 35,796 | -1048 | 48.54% | 51.46% | -2.93% | |
| 04 - Meyer/Montle | 27,917 | 15,183 | 783 | 43,883 | 12734 | 63.62% | 34.60% | 29.02% |
| 02 - Meyer/Kern | 16,905 | 13,784 | 325 | 31,014 | 3121 | 54.51% | 44.44% | 10.06% |
St House 83 - Covers Sanilac County, and Burtchville Twp, Fort Gratiot, and the City of Port Huron in St Clair County. This is a competitive district that was choked badly in 2004 for several reasons that don't need to be rehashed here, but should be remembered by the strategy department at state party. Sanilac County is quite conservative, but will vote for a local democrat. Port Huron leans democrat. This is a district we should take back with John Espinoza termed out, but I don't expect it to be easy.
| St Rep 83rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Kearns/Espinoza | 13,848 | 25,808 | 39,656 | -11960 | 34.92% | 65.08% | -30.16% | |
| 06 - Smith/Espinoza | 8,246 | 22,616 | 30,862 | -14370 | 26.72% | 73.28% | -46.56% | |
| 04 - Muxlow/Espinoza | 17,844 | 22,256 | 40,100 | -4412 | 44.50% | 55.50% | -11.00% | |
| 02 - Ehardt/Schultz | 17,268 | 9,520 | 26,788 | 7748 | 64.46% | 35.54% | 28.92% |
St House 82 - Covers Lapeer County - Leans GOP.
| St Rep 82nd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Daley/Marquardt | 24,655 | 18,406 | 43,061 | 6249 | 57.26% | 42.74% | 14.51% | |
| 06 - Stahl/Harrand | 18,629 | 15,021 | 1288 | 34,938 | 3608 | 53.32% | 42.99% | 10.33% |
| 04 - Stahl/Okasinski | 24,292 | 16,215 | 1529 | 42,036 | 8077 | 57.79% | 38.57% | 19.21% |
| 02 - Stahl/Knuth | 16,464 | 10,288 | 1159 | 27,911 | 6176 | 58.99% | 36.86% | 22.13% |
St House 81 - Covers Algonac, Berlin Twp, Brockway Twp, Casco Twp, China Twp, Clay Twp, Clyde Twp, Cottrellville Twp, East China Twp, Emmett Twp, Grant Twp, Greenwood Twp, Kenockee Twp, Lynn Twp, Marine City, City of Marysville, City of Memphis (St Clair Side), Mussey Twp, Port Huron Twp, Riley Twp, City of St Clair, St Clair Twp, and Yale in St Clair County. This is a potentially competitive seat in St Clair County. Most of it leans slightly GOP, but Marysville has a democrat leaning. Phil Pavlov is termed out so this is an open seat.
| St Rep 81st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Pavlov/Pencak | 30,125 | 16,757 | 46,882 | 13368 | 64.26% | 35.74% | 28.51% | |
| 06 - Pavlov/Donnellon | 22,365 | 14,816 | 37,181 | 7549 | 60.15% | 39.85% | 20.30% | |
| 04 - Pavlov/Patterson | 26,277 | 20,290 | 46,567 | 5987 | 56.43% | 43.57% | 12.86% | |
| 02 - Hager/Rumsey | 20,038 | 10,114 | 30,152 | 9924 | 66.46% | 33.54% | 32.91% |
St House 36 - Covers Bruce Twp, Shelby Twp, and Washington Twp in Macomb County - Probably the most GOP district in Macomb County.
| St Rep 36th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Lund/Murphy | 30,753 | 19,905 | 50,658 | 10848 | 60.71% | 39.29% | 21.41% | |
| 06 - Palmer/Murphy | 23,620 | 15,124 | 38,744 | 8496 | 60.96% | 39.04% | 21.93% | |
| 04 - Palmer/Murphy | 30,305 | 16,491 | 46,796 | 13814 | 64.76% | 35.24% | 29.52% | |
| 02 - Palmer/Denison | 20,013 | 9,699 | 29,712 | 10314 | 67.36% | 32.64% | 34.71% |
St House 33 - Covers part of Clinton Twp, Macomb Twp, and Ray Twp - Fairly strong GOP lean, but not overwhelmingly so. This district does not care for company line representatives. In the past this district or a similar one elected Meltzer, Leon Drolet, and David Jaye. It also voted for David Bonior.
| St Rep 33rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Meltzer/Prasiloski | 32,923 | 22,765 | 55,688 | 10158 | 59.12% | 40.88% | 18.24% | |
| 06 - Meltzer/Cynowa | 21,753 | 18,838 | 40,591 | 2915 | 53.59% | 46.41% | 7.18% | |
| 04 - Drolet/Cynowa | 30,292 | 19,644 | 49,936 | 10648 | 60.66% | 39.34% | 21.32% | |
| 02 - Drolet/Ventimiglia | 17,856 | 11,822 | 29,678 | 6034 | 60.17% | 39.83% | 20.33% |
St House 32 - Covers Armada Twp, Chesterfield Twp, Lenox Twp, Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond Twp in Macomb County, and Columbus Twp, Ira Twp, Kimball Twp, and Wales Twp in St Clair county. This district just flipped in 2008. I would have called it slightly GOP leaning, but Kimball Twp, Lenox Twp, and Chesterfield Twp makes it dangerous. Anything in Macomb and St Clair County is dangerous to a degree, but those areas more so. If the GOP is taking back the state house, it starts here.
| St Rep 32nd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - J.Accavitti/Hasse | 22,455 | 24,123 | 1265 | 47,843 | -1668 | 46.93% | 50.42% | -3.49% |
| 06 - D.Acciavatti/Lezotte | 21,217 | 13,847 | 886 | 35,950 | 7370 | 59.02% | 38.52% | 20.50% |
| 04 - D.Acciavatti/Landsiedel | 28,988 | 14,131 | 1006 | 44,125 | 14857 | 65.70% | 32.02% | 33.67% |
| 02 - D.Acciavatti/Hertel | 15,405 | 11,975 | 27,380 | 3430 | 56.26% | 43.74% | 12.53% |
St Rep 31 - Covers part of Clinton Twp and Mt Clemens in Macomb County - Slight democrat leaning, made more so by Mt Clemens. The GOP thought they had this one awhile back, but Fred Miller had other plans, keeping this district in the hands of the dems for as long as I've followed the state house. This area is the heart of Bonior country, and it's not going to be easy. It's winnable in the right year though, like the North Warren/South Sterling Heights district.
| St Rep 31st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Tollis/Miller | 12,277 | 26,404 | 1263 | 39,944 | -14127 | 30.74% | 66.10% | -35.37% |
| 06 - Tollis/Miller | 10,348 | 18,584 | 777 | 29,709 | -8236 | 34.83% | 62.55% | -27.72% |
| 04 - Morelli/Miller | 16,523 | 21,274 | 949 | 38,746 | -4751 | 42.64% | 54.91% | -12.26% |
| 02 - Russo/Gieleghem | 9,021 | 14,663 | 701 | 24,385 | -5642 | 36.99% | 60.13% | -23.14% |
St Rep 30 - Covers Northern Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County- This is a competitive district that has been held by the Rocca's for years. Sal, Sue, and Torry Rocca have represented this district. Tory Rocca is termed out, and it will be interesting to see who takes this. Sterling Heights is more democrat the south you go, so there may be a slight GOP leaning, but I expect this to be close.
| St Rep 30th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - T.Rocca/Hughes | 25,713 | 17,150 | 42,863 | 8563 | 59.99% | 40.01% | 19.98% | |
| 06 - T.Rocca/Fessler | 19,387 | 13,066 | 32,453 | 6321 | 59.74% | 40.26% | 19.48% | |
| 04 - T.Rocca/Maceroni | 22,725 | 19,474 | 2 | 42,201 | 3251 | 53.85% | 46.15% | 7.70% |
| 02 - S.Rocca/McHugh | 17,243 | 10,392 | 27,635 | 6851 | 62.40% | 37.60% | 24.79% |
St Rep 25th - Covers Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights in Macomb County - This district can possibly be competitive in the right year, but favors the democrats. The GOP did have a similar district to this from 96- 2002. I'm not sure if they had it before then too or not. Southern Warren is a democrat stronghold. Northern Warren less so. Southern Sterling Heights leans democrat, not overwhelmingly so. It's not Roseville or Eastpointe. A Switalski is tough to beat in Macomb County.
| St Rep 25th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Wiecek/J.Switalski | 14,285 | 26,874 | 1549 | 42,708 | -12589 | 33.45% | 62.92% | -29.48% |
| 06 - StPierre/Bieda | 10,151 | 22,633 | 794 | 33,578 | -12482 | 30.23% | 67.40% | -37.17% |
| 04 - Wiecek/Bieda | 16,269 | 25,497 | 41,766 | -9228 | 38.95% | 61.05% | -22.09% | |
| 02 - Sadowski/Bieda | 12,893 | 16,910 | 29,803 | -4017 | 43.26% | 56.74% | -13.48% |
St Rep 24th - Covers Harrison Twp and the City of St Clair Shores in Macomb County - This is a swing district in the truest sense. Democrat Bill Callahan held the seat, then Republican Jack Brandenburg, and now Sarah Roberts. This is one I think we can take back, especially if Roberts is still driving that foreign car. How many jobs did that cost?
| St Rep 24th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - B.Brandenbug/Roberts | 22,430 | 23,495 | 1678 | 47,603 | -1065 | 47.12% | 49.36% | -2.24% |
| 06 - J.Brandenburg/Abella | 22,256 | 14,645 | 608 | 37,509 | 7611 | 59.34% | 39.04% | 20.29% |
| 04 - J.Brandenberg/Foukes | 29,111 | 17,317 | 46,428 | 11794 | 62.70% | 37.30% | 25.40% | |
| 02 - J.Brandenburg/Benson | 17,694 | 14,296 | 1049 | 33,039 | 3398 | 53.55% | 43.27% | 10.28% |
Overall, this district is safe for Candice Miller, and potentially competitive if it opens up. Redistricting can make this interesting as well. Will Bonior attempt a comeback if Warren, Eastpointe, or Roseville are back in. Will this go west from the thumb and take in Bay County. If that's the case, Barcia may try and make a run. He's term limited and held a thumb district. I think the dems will be careful here if they control redistricting. I don't think Stabenow wants to take on Miller in 2012.
There should be some interesting downticket races here in 2010. Oftentimes as Macomb County goes, so does the state. Watch St Clair County too. It's always competitive.
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