Friday, July 01, 2011

Congressional District 11 - Redistricted (MI-11)


Incumbents - VACANT - Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)  resigned.
Years in office as of 2012 election -12 (McCotter)
The old 11th district information is here

CHALLENGERS - Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) and Syed Taj (D-Canton)

UPDATE - 5-1-2012: Two challengers have filed. William Robers in Redford despite  it no longer being in the district. Syed Taj is running as well and he's in the Canton area.

Update - 5-16-2012 - McCotter has a primary as well. Bentivolio is a activist in West Oakland who ran for state senate in 2010.

Update - 6-7-2012 - McCotter is off the ballot due to insufficient ballot petitions. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in. She'll have to get past Bentivolio who is on the ballot. 

Update - 7-22-2012 - It's a giant clustermuck. McCotter resigned. The August primary will decide the nominee for the November general election. A September special primary will be held to replace McCotter in the OLD district. In November we will have the normal and special general elections. One is for a two month term in lame duck. The other for the regular two year term. Click on the MI-11 label to see the latest.

Update 8-30-2012 - In the new MI-11, Bentivolio will face Taj.

This district changed a bit. McCotter was likely on borrowed time with the old district. That is no longer the case. McCotter drops most of his blue sinks. Redford, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, and his portion of Dearborn Heights goes to Hansen Clarke. Van Buren Township and Belleville go to John Dingell. McCotter keeps the rest of his territory and picks up part of the old 9th district, including the rest of Waterford, Farmington, the NW part of West Bloomfield, Lake Angeles, Auburn Hills, Southwestern part of Rochester Hills, Most of Clawson, Birmingham, and Bloomfield Hills. This district is somewhat similar to the old 11th district during the 1990's.

By dropping Redford and Westland, McCotter wins not just by red/blue numbers, but Glenn Anderson and Andy Dillon are in different districts. That was likely his strongest potential opposition. Dian Slavens, Tim Melton, and maybe Lisa Brown (depending on where in West Bloomfield she lives) could provide a challenge. If McCotter makes a serious run for president and does not run for re-election, Marty Knollenberg will likely run.

The old district had an approximate 18000 vote spread for Bush and a 33000 vote spread for Obama. The new district gives Bush a 45000 vote spread and Obama an approximate 8000 vote spread. Dropping the blue sinks (and 30000+ dem vote spreads) do wonders for a district. McCotter in 08 won with about 52% counting 3rd party votes. He won by about 20000 votes overall. In the portion he still represents, there is about a 42000 vote spread.




2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Auburn Hills 3577 5823 9400 -2246 38.05% 61.95% -23.89%
Birmingham 5900 6492 12392 -592 47.61% 52.39% -4.78%
Bloomfield Hills 1580 1112 2692 468 58.69% 41.31% 17.38%
Clawson (most) 2998 3112 6110 -114 49.07% 50.93% -1.87%
Commerce Twp 11428 9900 21328 1528 53.58% 46.42% 7.16%
Farmington City 2416 3183 5599 -767 43.15% 56.85% -13.70%
Highland Twp 5987 4533 10520 1454 56.91% 43.09% 13.82%
Lake Angeles 201 59 260 142 77.31% 22.69% 54.62%
Lyon Twp 4120 3009 7129 1111 57.79% 42.21% 15.58%
Milford Twp 5105 3851 8956 1254 57.00% 43.00% 14.00%
Northville City 1127 1001 2128 126 52.96% 47.04% 5.92%
Novi City 13264 14397 27661 -1133 47.95% 52.05% -4.10%
Novi Twp 52 57 109 -5 47.71% 52.29% -4.59%
Rochester Hills (small) 3983 3766 7749 217 51.40% 48.60% 2.80%
South Lyon 2983 2712 5695 271 52.38% 47.62% 4.76%
Troy 21230 21517 42747 -287 49.66% 50.34% -0.67%
Walled Lake 1517 1823 3340 -306 45.42% 54.58% -9.16%
Waterford Twp 16968 19134 36102 -2166 47.00% 53.00% -6.00%
West Bloomfield (part) 4609 7500 12109 -2891 38.06% 61.94% -23.87%
White Lake Twp 8563 7196 15759 1367 54.34% 45.66% 8.67%
Wixom 3077 3495 6572 -418 46.82% 53.18% -6.36%
Wayne County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Canton Twp 19078 26092 45170 -7014 42.24% 57.76% -15.53%
Livonia 28190 28358 56548 -168 49.85% 50.15% -0.30%
Northville City 846 895 1741 -49 48.59% 51.41% -2.81%
Northville Twp 9025 7497 16522 1528 54.62% 45.38% 9.25%
Plymouth City 2277 3013 5290 -736 43.04% 56.96% -13.91%
Plymouth Twp 9003 8115 17118 888 52.59% 47.41% 5.19%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 189104 197642 386746 -8538 48.90% 51.10% -2.21%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Auburn Hills 4089 4724 8813 -635 46.40% 53.60% -7.21%
Birmingham 6772 5508 12280 1264 55.15% 44.85% 10.29%
Bloomfield Hills 1802 951 2753 851 65.46% 34.54% 30.91%
Clawson (most) 3584 3471 7055 113 50.80% 49.20% 1.60%
Commerce Twp 12019 7838 19857 4181 60.53% 39.47% 21.06%
Farmington City 2873 2680 5553 193 51.74% 48.26% 3.48%
Highland Twp 6509 3849 10358 2660 62.84% 37.16% 25.68%
Lake Angeles 217 43 260 174 83.46% 16.54% 66.92%
Lyon Twp 4082 2274 6356 1808 64.22% 35.78% 28.45%
Milford Twp 5413 3252 8665 2161 62.47% 37.53% 24.94%
Northville City 1269 866 2135 403 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Novi City 14484 10612 25096 3872 57.71% 42.29% 15.43%
Novi Twp 67 40 107 27 62.62% 37.38% 25.23%
Rochester Hills (small) 4546 3114 7660 1432 59.35% 40.65% 18.69%
South Lyon 3191 2236 5427 955 58.80% 41.20% 17.60%
Troy 24171 18175 42346 5996 57.08% 42.92% 14.16%
Walled Lake 1664 1580 3244 84 51.29% 48.71% 2.59%
Waterford Twp 19965 16507 36472 3458 54.74% 45.26% 9.48%
West Bloomfield (part) 5329 6704 12033 -1375 44.29% 55.71% -11.43%
White Lake Twp 9439 5821 15260 3618 61.85% 38.15% 23.71%
Wixom 3484 2552 6036 932 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%
Wayne County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Canton Twp 21452 19743 41195 1709 52.07% 47.93% 4.15%
Livonia 30626 25148 55774 5478 54.91% 45.09% 9.82%
Northville City 955 790 1745 165 54.73% 45.27% 9.46%
Northville Twp 9110 5676 14786 3434 61.61% 38.39% 23.22%
Plymouth City 2557 2553 5110 4 50.04% 49.96% 0.08%
Plymouth Twp 9828 6987 16815 2841 58.45% 41.55% 16.90%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 209497 163694 373191 45803 56.14% 43.86% 12.27%









McCotter Larkin Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Auburn Hills

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Birmingham

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bloomfield Hills

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson (most)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 12036 7491 19527 4545 61.64% 38.36% 23.28%
Farmington City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Highland Twp 6217 3450 9667 2767 64.31% 35.69% 28.62%
Lake Angeles

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Lyon Twp 4369 2162 6531 2207 66.90% 33.10% 33.79%
Milford Twp 5468 2735 8203 2733 66.66% 33.34% 33.32%
Northville City 1297 714 2011 583 64.50% 35.50% 28.99%
Novi City 14675 10864 25539 3811 57.46% 42.54% 14.92%
Novi Twp 62 37 99 25 62.63% 37.37% 25.25%
Rochester Hills (small)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
South Lyon 3222 1999 5221 1223 61.71% 38.29% 23.42%
Troy

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walled Lake 1608 1451 3059 157 52.57% 47.43% 5.13%
Waterford Twp 1736 1441 3177 295 54.64% 45.36% 9.29%
West Bloomfield (part)
0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
White Lake Twp 8772 5595 14367 3177 61.06% 38.94% 22.11%
Wixom 3331 2680 6011 651 55.42% 44.58% 10.83%
Wayne County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Canton Twp 21047 20703 41750 344 50.41% 49.59% 0.82%
Livonia 31114 21286 52400 9828 59.38% 40.62% 18.76%
Northville City 967 646 1613 321 59.95% 40.05% 19.90%
Northville Twp 9967 5400 15367 4567 64.86% 35.14% 29.72%
Plymouth City 2662 2192 4854 470 54.84% 45.16% 9.68%
Plymouth Twp 10166 5912 16078 4254 63.23% 36.77% 26.46%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 138716 96758 235474 41958 58.91% 41.09% 17.82%

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