Saturday, July 02, 2011

Congressional District 13 - Redistricted (MI-13)


Incumbent - Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-14
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2
The old 13th district information is here.

Challengers - Harry Sawicki (R-Dearborn Heights), John Conyers (D-Detroit, incumbent in MI-13),

Update 8-30-2012 - John Conyers won easily against the field. I'm surprised at how easy it was, although I'm not surprised he won.

Update 5-1-2012 - There's been several write-ups in the MI-13/MI-14 districts since I first posted this. A lot of people are running campaigns in both of these districts but have not turned  in their signatures. Conyers and Johnson are officially in. Shanelle Jackson and Glenn Anderson are also likely running here. Clarke, Brenda Lawrence, and Gary Peters are likely running in MI-14

Update 5-16-2012 - It's a major primary. Advantage to Mr. Monica Conyers, or is it? The big questions here are who is organized, how territorial are the candidates in their area (Anderson in Westland, Jackson in NW, Johnson in Highland Park), and how the vote splits. My money is on Conyers, but I can't discount Anderson, Jackson, or Johnson either assuming those campaigns ARE organized, funded, and hitting doors.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district. My guess is that Clarke will win with about 80% of the vote each election.

The old 13th district was Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods and much of downriver. The Pointes go to John Conyers. Most of Downriver goes to Dingell. Clarke picks up Highland Park, and has the only part of Downriver still in this district - Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge which are all heavily minority.

Clarke picks up from McCotter Redford, Dearborn Heights, Westland, Garden City, and Wayne. He picks up Inkster, Romulus, and another part of Dearborn Heights from Dingell. All of those areas are blue sinks, and are gaining in minority population.

This and the 14th district are safest for democrats in Michigan.


No comments: