Saturday, July 02, 2011

Congressional District 12 - Redistricted (MI-12)


Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 57
The old 12th district information is here.
This district is descended from the old 15th district.

Challengers -  Cynthia Kallgren (R-Wyandotte)

Updated 8-30-2012 - Kallgren won her primary. Dingell won his. 

Update 5-16-2012 - This could be interesting to watch. Marcin is a 26 year old East Coast transplant to Ann Arbor where he's a grad student. Ann Arbor (and east coast) dems are a different culture than the Downriver/Dearborn labor democrats which Dingell represents. One of the big clashes is on the auto industry. Jacobsen seems to be giving this a district an actual campaign, much like Dr Rob Steele did in 2010. The problem for Jacobsen is no Monroe County to help if it swings against the dems like it did in 2010. The rest of downriver is tougher territory. Romulus and Inkster are gone though which helps.

Michigan lost a congressional district, so there is no more 15th district. The old 15th district is basically now the 12th. What is mostly the old 12th district is now the 9th. I'm going to analyze this district as it is came from the 15th. This is still John Dingell's district.

This district is similar, although it changed some. It gave up Augusta and York Townships, as well as the City of Milan to Tim Walberg. It picks up 1/2 of Scio Township instead. That's the change in Washtenaw County. Monroe County goes to Walberg. In Wayne county, almost all of downriver goes back to Dingell outside of Melvindale, River Rouge, and Ecorse. He also gets the rest of Dearborn. Romulus and Inkster go to Hansen Clarke. He picks up Van Buren Twp and Belleville from Thad McCotter. This is "new territory" for the district, but not for Dingell who represented downriver for years.  This district is also a lot bluer. Monroe County was a swing area and it's gone. Downriver is mostly democrat, and the added portions to this district like Eastern Dearborn, Lincoln Park and Southgate are blue sinks. The old district had about a 73000 vote spread for Kerry and 115000 for Obama. The new district was about 81000 and 122000. Rob Steele gave Dingell his toughest test in years, but lost his best area and has about a 32000 vote deficit in the new region. I didn't include the small Dearborn Heights portion since about 90% of it is in Clarke's district.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City 10712 51587 62299 -40875 17.19% 82.81% -65.61%
Ann Arbor Twp 829 1836 2665 -1007 31.11% 68.89% -37.79%
Pittsfield Twp 5042 11342 16384 -6300 30.77% 69.23% -38.45%
Scio Twp (1/2) 1886 3355 5241 -1469 35.99% 64.01% -28.03%
Superior Twp 2048 4951 6999 -2903 29.26% 70.74% -41.48%
Ypsilanti City 1308 7828 9136 -6520 14.32% 85.68% -71.37%
Ypsilanti Twp 6517 19579 26096 -13062 24.97% 75.03% -50.05%
Wayne County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Allen Park 6941 8705 15646 -1764 44.36% 55.64% -11.27%
Belleville City 733 1315 2048 -582 35.79% 64.21% -28.42%
Brownstown Twp 5373 8668 14041 -3295 38.27% 61.73% -23.47%
Dearborn 13761 27253 41014 -13492 33.55% 66.45% -32.90%
Flat Rock 1807 2504 4311 -697 41.92% 58.08% -16.17%
Gibralter 1132 1313 2445 -181 46.30% 53.70% -7.40%
Grosse Ile 4023 2859 6882 1164 58.46% 41.54% 16.91%
Huron Twp 3669 3852 7521 -183 48.78% 51.22% -2.43%
Lincoln Park 5080 10848 15928 -5768 31.89% 68.11% -36.21%
Riverview 2652 3832 6484 -1180 40.90% 59.10% -18.20%
Rockwood 678 900 1578 -222 42.97% 57.03% -14.07%
Southgate 5509 9500 15009 -3991 36.70% 63.30% -26.59%
Sumpter Twp 1696 2961 4657 -1265 36.42% 63.58% -27.16%
Taylor 9224 17264 26488 -8040 34.82% 65.18% -30.35%
Trenton 4908 5957 10865 -1049 45.17% 54.83% -9.65%
Van Buren Twp 4375 9703 14078 -5328 31.08% 68.92% -37.85%
Woodhaven 2836 3781 6617 -945 42.86% 57.14% -14.28%
Wyandotte 4822 8200 13022 -3378 37.03% 62.97% -25.94%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 107561 229893 337454 -122332 31.87% 68.13% -36.25%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City 13153 45117 58270 -31964 22.57% 77.43% -54.85%
Ann Arbor Twp 1083 1787 2870 -704 37.74% 62.26% -24.53%
Pittsfield Twp 5839 9271 15110 -3432 38.64% 61.36% -22.71%
Scio Twp (1/2) 2122 3132 5254 -1010 40.39% 59.61% -19.22%
Superior Twp 2227 3948 6175 -1721 36.06% 63.94% -27.87%
Ypsilanti City 1581 6046 7627 -4465 20.73% 79.27% -58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp 7887 16240 24127 -8353 32.69% 67.31% -34.62%
Wayne County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Allen Park 7738 8575 16313 -837 47.43% 52.57% -5.13%
Belleville City 856 1131 1987 -275 43.08% 56.92% -13.84%
Brownstown Twp 5369 6916 12285 -1547 43.70% 56.30% -12.59%
Dearborn 16686 24456 41142 -7770 40.56% 59.44% -18.89%
Flat Rock 1917 2233 4150 -316 46.19% 53.81% -7.61%
Gibralter 1186 1271 2457 -85 48.27% 51.73% -3.46%
Grosse Ile 4435 2594 7029 1841 63.10% 36.90% 26.19%
Huron Twp 3578 3417 6995 161 51.15% 48.85% 2.30%
Lincoln Park 5843 10921 16764 -5078 34.85% 65.15% -30.29%
Riverview 3095 3665 6760 -570 45.78% 54.22% -8.43%
Rockwood 759 948 1707 -189 44.46% 55.54% -11.07%
Southgate 6048 9046 15094 -2998 40.07% 59.93% -19.86%
Sumpter Twp 1979 2963 4942 -984 40.04% 59.96% -19.91%
Taylor 10444 16377 26821 -5933 38.94% 61.06% -22.12%
Trenton 5495 5778 11273 -283 48.74% 51.26% -2.51%
Van Buren Twp 4993 7353 12346 -2360 40.44% 59.56% -19.12%
Woodhaven 3076 3380 6456 -304 47.65% 52.35% -4.71%
Wyandotte 5451 7935 13386 -2484 40.72% 59.28% -18.56%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 122840 204500 327340 -81660 37.53% 62.47% -24.95%









Steele Dingell Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City 8242 28027 36269 -19785 22.72% 77.28% -54.55%
Ann Arbor Twp 783 1133 1916 -350 40.87% 59.13% -18.27%
Pittsfield Twp 4264 5815 10079 -1551 42.31% 57.69% -15.39%
Scio Twp (1/2) 154 177 331 -23 46.53% 53.47% -6.95%
Superior Twp 1864 2800 4664 -936 39.97% 60.03% -20.07%
Ypsilanti City 942 3655 4597 -2713 20.49% 79.51% -59.02%
Ypsilanti Twp 5108 10379 15487 -5271 32.98% 67.02% -34.03%
Wayne County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Allen Park

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Belleville City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brownstown Twp 4058 4232 8290 -174 48.95% 51.05% -2.10%
Dearborn 6455 6353 12808 102 50.40% 49.60% 0.80%
Flat Rock 1351 1274 2625 77 51.47% 48.53% 2.93%
Gibralter

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grosse Ile

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Huron Twp 2839 1956 4795 883 59.21% 40.79% 18.42%
Lincoln Park

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Riverview

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rockwood 484 533 1017 -49 47.59% 52.41% -4.82%
Southgate

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sumpter Twp 1218 1495 2713 -277 44.89% 55.11% -10.21%
Taylor 6034 8512 14546 -2478 41.48% 58.52% -17.04%
Trenton

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Van Buren Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Woodhaven

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wyandotte

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 43796 76341 120137 -32545 36.46% 63.54% -27.09%

1 comment:

Debbie Bloomfield said...

Cynthia Kallgren will challenge Dingell! Cynthia Kallgren of Trenton is up and running to represent Downriver, Dearborn and the area westward including Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor that composes the new 12th Congressional District. As a republican she first faces a primary opponent on August 7 with the winner presumably facing Congressman John Dingell. She is working to let the voters retire Dingell after 58 years.
She points out that Dingell has been in office during the long slow decline of Downriver and Michigan, through the population loss that resulted in losing two congressional districts. The jobs have left Michigan, and our children are leaving Michigan in search of employment and jobs with the security needed to raise a family.
Cynthia Kallgren, 52 is a small business owner, mother, lifelong resident of southeast Michigan, and graduate of Eastern Michigan University. “I believe we have an exciting opportunity to promote good, time-honored values in our communities,” she states. “Fiscal responsibility, individual freedom, working for families and human life from beginning to end, along with energy independence while keeping manufacturing jobs and new technologies in America; specifically southeast Michigan are among our most important priorities.”
Active in politics and local government for many years, Kallgren has served as a volunteer, campaign worker and advocate for causes including fiscal accountability, a woman’s right to refuse, and economic and local business development. She was a candidate for State Representative in 2010.
“I feel passionately about the issues facing our district and our nation and would be honored to represent the voice and concerns of the people of southeast Michigan as a mother, a citizen and a public servant in Washington,” she states. “Together we can bring Michigan back to life.”
More information will soon be available at www.kallgrenforcongress.com.